How do we think about Patrick Williams and his contract in light of Giddey's?

[sco]

I'm trying to put AK's flawed market assessment aside on the PWill deal which, to AK's credit, he learned from and successfully managed very well with Giddey's. If you put Pat's poor play post-contract aside (with a lot of mental effort!), you might be able to get to the point that based on both guys' pre-contract play vs. their contracts that they net out to "fair market value".

I will say that Pat's post-contract underperformance is why I was so gunshy about overpaying Giddey based on potential.

Thoughts?

[ChettheJet]

Those who have their minds made up about Williams wouldn't care if he made $180,000.

Swapping Lonzo for Okoro still bugs me, I look at Okoro's numbers and aside from being healthier than Patrick I don't think he looks any better. He's also had no pressure on him laying on a contending team, just play a role, that doesn't mean getting more minutes and freedom has to translate to more production. It should probably be toss up to see who starts I just think Williams has the edge. Just as some other players took off with the departures of DeRozan and Lavine I think Williams would benefit from Vucevic being gone and the Bulls running more. .

[kodo]

Even if Patrick had played well within his capability, he was worth the same as Okoro who got $10M. And no knock on Okoro he is excellent at his job. But a guy who can't do anything with a live dribble and certainly isn't running the team can't be getting anything significant.

Other players of Patrick's type who are in contrast doing a great job and recognized league-wide still aren't making Patrick's money, not just Okoro.
Herb Jones: $12M, Finney Smith: $14M

At same time he's not like $10M or $20M overpaid. I don't think $5M overpay is really relevant in the grand scheme. Especially since Chicago isn't going to leverage money to try and outspend other teams for a competitive advantage.

[_txchilibowl_]

Obviously disappointed with the results so far but I still believe he can be an impact player. I'm fine with it.

[MGB8]

Right now, the contract is terrible. At the time, it looked reasonable under the assumption that the regression-starts-to-season and “lost” looking plays at time were in part due to injuries and general youth. Meaning that health and just long term game experience would have Pat looking like a solid 3&D combo forward - the type any team wants on its team. Especially since there were small flashes of extra on defense and a bit more than just open 3s on offense.

Last year’s regression is really hard to explain and statistically unusual. All the red flags proved more true than not. I’m sure that impacted the Giddey negotiations and the Bulls factoring in downside more.

Anyway, while at this point I have little reason for hope, I still do hope that Pat’s regression was based on some health or other factor that we just don’t know about, that it has passed, and that he returns to a more normal “development curve” and can become a “Harrison-Barnes-like” defensive combo forward. With the 2nd apron impact, I think that level of player is to some degree devalued to more MLE than 125-150% MLE... so still not ideal, but at least that would be a productive rotation / role player, and tradeable even if not coveted

[eierluke]

Patrick should be on a one year 2.854 mio $ contract, so management threw at minimum 70 + mio $ over 5 years out of the window.
Management should feel the same I felt last week when I brought almost a million unused FFP2 masks to the waste incineration:(

[SalmonsSuperfan]

Pat doesn't even look like an NBA player. There are a thousand guys on the vet min who can do what he does...not score, not rebound, not dribble, be tall. I think the biggest issue was giving him 5 years and a player option. $18mil per year looks better, fine even, if it's 3 guaranteed years and a team option in years 4 and 5. We are stuck with this guy through the rest of the '20s which is just depressing. Giddey is an overpay too, but at least it's a slightly shorter contract and he's simply a better player and these two guys expire at the same time. Team is hamstrung regardless, so quibbling about a few million AAV isn't super important. Both guys have a long enough track record to suggest there isn't any 'potential' there. OKC is a much better run team and they felt Caruso was better. It wasn't a James Harden type situation because they're paying Alex like Giddey. $80mil also seems nuts for Caruso, but the proof is in the pudding, they won.

AK should've been **** fired for giving Pat that contract. Regardless of these players, that guy is the issue plain and simple.

[HomoSapien]

My biggest criticism of AK isn't that he makes mistakes, but that he is stubborn about his mistakes. Patrick Williams is the biggest example of this. For 4 1/2 seasons, Patrick Williams was gifted minutes that he didn't deserve and often played over more impactful players. He was also given a big player friendly contract that he didn't deserve and that no other team was likely to give him. Why did he do this? Reportedly, AK gave it because he thought a big payday would motivate him more? It's just absurd.

If Julian Philips or Dalen Terry were given Williams' minutes, would they match his production? If you even have to stop and think about this for more than five seconds, it's a bad deal.

People will argue that $18m a year isn't that big of a deal in today's landscape. It's a little more than the MLE. I think it's a problematic contract for several reasons:

1.) $18M is a lot for someone who plays significant minutes and often has months of being completely invisible on the court. That's not including the 27 games a year he's invisible on average from being injured.

2.) If we decide to bench him more often like BD did later in the season $18m would be a lot for someone who effectively becomes an 8th or 9th man.

3.) That $18m mistake makes it less likely that we can afford to keep both Coby and Ayo. That's fine if it's for basketball reasons, but financial reasons are also at play here. It's a shame, because while both players have their flaws they're actually two productive young players that could be solid long-term pieces. Patrick Williams isn't that.

My opinion of his contract is unchanged after Giddey's signing. It should have never been offered. We should have told Willliams to play on the QO and prove his worth or to sign a two year deal that would allow us to evaluate him further.

[Red Larrivee]

Maybe unpopular, but I don't think Patrick's contract is that bad. I don't like it of course right now, but he's still making a flat rate over the next 4 years while the cap is expected to keep rising. It won't be long before his deal is essentially an MLE contract. Hell, today he's only making $4M above the NT MLE.

Pat did not look like an MLE player last season, but he doesn't have to do a lot to get to that level. He had the worst year of his career, and I think there's reason to believe it won't repeat. If he's the player he was the previous four seasons, I think he's paid about fairly. I don't think that's a huge "if" either.

[HomoSapien]

Maybe unpopular, but I don't think Patrick's contract is that bad. I don't like it of course right now, but he's still making a flat rate over the next 4 years while the cap is expected to keep rising. It won't be long before his deal is essentially an MLE contract. Hell, today he's only making $4M above the NT MLE.

Pat did not look like an MLE player last season, but he doesn't have to do a lot to get to that level. He had the worst year of his career, and I think there's reason to believe it won't repeat. If he's the player he was the previous four seasons, I think he's paid about fairly. I don't think that's a huge "if" either.

I respect your take, but I strongly disagree with it. In 5 years, Patrick Williams has not improved at all. Not once. Not for a little bit. If anything, he's gotten marginally worse while also becoming less athletic. The sentence "he doesn't have to do a lot to get to that [MLE[ level" is false. He would have to change his entire behavior and mentality on the court and buck 5 years of data and trends.

Here are the per 36 numbers between three players.

Player A (age 21): 11.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.6 bpg, 45% FG, 33% 3P
Player B (age 22): 11.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.6 spg, 0.5 bpg, 45% FG, 36% 3P
Player C (age 23): 12.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.7 bpg, 40% FG, 35% 3P

Which player would you take? Is there a meaningful difference between the three?

Would that answer change if I told you their salaries?

Player A will make $2.2M this season.
Player B will make $5.4m this season.
Player C will make $18m this season.

Spoiler:

Player A is Julian Philips, Player B is Dalen Terry, and Player C is of course Pat. If there isn't much that Pat has to do to become a MLE-level player, then is that also true for Philips and Terry? Because they're basicaly matching if not out performing him.

[League Circles]

Patrick's deal was a mistake in real time, but what's done is done and IMO it would be even a bigger mistake to start giving him DNP-CDs. That contract simply has to be salvaged. I thought he played better after being benched last year, which for some reason seems like a pattern for him. As a result, I think he'll be a bench player until further notice. I think he may thrive on it though.

I'd still rather have his skillset than Ayo or Huerter's.

[League Circles]

Patrick really was WAY better after he came back and got a consistent bench role last year. The eye test is backed up by the stats.

Still wasn't what we wanted, but inspired hope that his play and contract off the bench might not be catastrophic for us.

[jnrjr79]

Giddey's contract doesn't make me feel anything one way or the other about Williams and his contract.

I basically view the Williams contract as the Felicio contract v. 2.0. It's a mistake the team will just have to ride out.

[2weekswithpay]

The Pat contract was a mistake, but I don't think AK is the only one with a flawed market assessment. 3&D wing/forwards might be overvalued by most of the league.

Mikal was traded for 5 FRPs. PJ Washington recently extended for 4yrs 88M. Jabari Smith got 5yrs 122M.

De'andre Hunter 4yr 90M. Rui 3yrs 51M.

The market has been quite favorable to these players for a while.

[DuckIII]

I don’t draw a connection between the two. If there is one, I’d say it’s that Patrick’s contract helps illustrate just how good Giddey’s deal looks to be.

And really, I thought Pat’s deal was fine from day 1 and expected it to end being a bargain deal by the second half. All that changed since then is Pat got hurt again and had the worst season of his career. That is what is making it look bad - really bad for last year’s production. And it might stay that way. Him ending up a total bust is certainly on the table now.

But it wouldn’t take much from Pat for that to end up a reasonable deal. It’s just not that much money anymore.

[Peelboy]

IMO the big difference is that unlike Pat, Josh seems to be a gamer whos weaknesses are more fixable. Pat is the tin man, and I don't think you can develop heart/grit. So he'll always be an inconsistent frustrating player who makes the key mistake.

[SalmonsSuperfan]

Giddey's contract doesn't make me feel anything one way or the other about Williams and his contract.

I basically view the Williams contract as the Felicio contract v. 2.0. It's a mistake the team will just have to ride out.

oh god, Felicia. I forgot all about that dude. at least he had a nice smile. a $32 mil one. What a bad contract.

[GoBlue72391]

Patrick really was WAY better after he came back and got a consistent bench role last year. The eye test is backed up by the stats.

Still wasn't what we wanted, but inspired hope that his play and contract off the bench might not be catastrophic for us.

No, it's not. The stats don't support that at all.

As a starter: 9.6/3.9/2.3 on 51 TS% over 27 MPG (per 36: 12.8/5.2/3.1)

Off the bench: 8.2/3.6/1.6 on 51 TS% over 22.1 MPG (per 36: 13.2/5.8/2.6)

The difference is negligible.

[Chi town]

Maybe unpopular, but I don't think Patrick's contract is that bad. I don't like it of course right now, but he's still making a flat rate over the next 4 years while the cap is expected to keep rising. It won't be long before his deal is essentially an MLE contract. Hell, today he's only making $4M above the NT MLE.

Pat did not look like an MLE player last season, but he doesn't have to do a lot to get to that level. He had the worst year of his career, and I think there's reason to believe it won't repeat. If he's the player he was the previous four seasons, I think he's paid about fairly. I don't think that's a huge "if" either.

I think Pat should only shoot 3s. No dribbles no dunks no turnovers.

Simply take and make your 3s. Think that would help him a ton.

And play physical aggressive D.

[Chi town]

Patrick really was WAY better after he came back and got a consistent bench role last year. The eye test is backed up by the stats.

Still wasn't what we wanted, but inspired hope that his play and contract off the bench might not be catastrophic for us.

No, it's not. The stats don't support that at all.

As a starter: 9.6/3.9/2.3 on 51 TS% over 27 MPG (per 36: 12.8/5.2/3.1)

Off the bench: 8.2/3.6/1.6 on 51 TS% over 22.1 MPG (per 36: 13.2/5.8/2.6)

The difference is negligible.

Yeah he sucked.

He was playing his best ball before he got hurt. That Knicks game was what he should be playing like this very night.

He should be like OG but he plays like a G leaguer minus the effort.