Bulls re-sign Josh Giddey - 4/100- no options, fully guaranteed

[sco]

I am wrestling with my own feelings about signing him to a deal like this. I think it comes down to conflicting beliefs about what a $25M contract guy is. As many said, it's consistent with a 3rd/4th starting salary...or using my vernacular, it's a guy in the 2nd/3rd quartile (top 16-24) among starters at his position (which is also ambiguous). But with Giddey's wide range of performance, you could argue where he falls at his "position" anywhere between 1st and 4th quartile. The truth is that there is probably more uncertainty with who he will be over the contract than most guys who after 4-5 years in the league. So the way I'm thinking about it now. If we get pre-ASG Giddey or full-year Giddey (i.e. regression to the mean), that guy is a $15M MLE value, so a $10M/yr overpay. If we get post-ASG Giddey, that guy, one could argue is a $35M/yr guy (maybe $40M). So it comes down as to how you handicap the likelihood of those two outcomes...at a 50/50, the deal is fair. I am optimistic that it's more like 70/30 to the good, based solely, on how he still managed to play at a high level in the play-in game (vs. the questionable competition during his good stretch).

[Chi town]

The gun shyness comes from Pat playing like a high schooler. Crazy regression.

Normally 22 year olds with a history of annual improvement get better.

I’m banking on Giddey improving steadily.

20 9 8 is what I think he will put up this year.

[jump]

Im totally excited. For the first time in a over a decade we have excellence at the PG position —and depth. And we’ll have it for the next several years. AND we have someone able to step into the leadership role. We haven’t had anyone able to lead this team since Jimmy Butler. It’s going to be a fun season to watch.

[Stratmaster]

We aren't ever going to agree on Giddey. You think he is a bum who over-achieved and won't ever play quality basketball again.

I mean I quite literally don't think that. Nor have I ever described him that way.

I think he is a serviceable starting PG who fits exactly the genius offense the Wizard Billy Donovan has concocted. Run as fast as you can and shoot as fast as you can.

Sort of funny you said that, because I think this description fits pretty much what I said. A guy who has a very low chance of being a bad contract and also someone that doesn't have meaningful upside.

Great. We agree. In no way does our description match the idea that he isn't worth 20 mil and is an unathletic horrible defender and shooter who doesn't fit with other players. Which I think is where this all started.

[Peelboy]

Good smart deal by both camps that should result in two
important things:

(a) mutually positive feelings;

(b) a deal far more likely to be a valuable trade asset than a burden you can’t shake.

Big win. Another point in an increasingly more consistent pattern of solid work by AK.

I agree with this take. On the one hand, it's both the midpoint of the bid/ask, and it's around the midpoint of the discussed potential outcomes (MLE v Max). However, even if you think there's more downside risk and he'll be something like 12/7/6 shooting35% from 3 (his pre-ASB stats last year), that would be at his age 23 season, meaning there's a reasonable chance of improvement, which along with cap escalation should make the contract more palatable/tradeable as time goes on. All of which means the catastrophic downside at $25M per to me is substantially less than the upside.

[GoBlue72391]

Giddey doesn't have to play at post ASB levels to justify 25M. 25M for Giddey is not "a lot" of risk. Look around the league at what 25M gets you these days and what it's projected to get you moving forward. Giddey is being paid like the 79th best player in the league.

Even if he's the player he was in OKC, that's still a player that could get 20ish per year.

Best case scenario: he's the guy he was for the last couple months of the season. That's probably a max contract player.

Worst case scenario: he's an unathletic, bad defender who can't shoot or impact games when they matter. That guy's not worth even $20M.

If it weren't for those last couple month or two he wouldn't even be capable of getting the $25M he did.

Wait? WUT? Best case scenario for a 22 year old is that he plays at a level he has already played at? Worst case is he plays at a level below any level he has ever played at?

That's literally what happened to Pat. Last year, he played below any level he has ever played after signing a big extension that was viewed as a good-to-great deal and easily tradable by most. I'm not saying that will happen to Giddey, but that's why it's the worst case scenario.

I like Giddey and he's a hell of a lot better than Pat, and therefore I have way more faith in him, but he's still very much an unknown quantity to me. Contract years can sometimes be fool's gold, and that 3PT% and the level of competition he had his breakout during should give us all some slight pause, if nothing else.

And yes, the best-case scenario is he keeps up the pace he finished last season with. That was all-NBA caliber. It would be kind of crazy to expect even MORE than that already incredibly high level of play. Unless you think he has MVP-caliber potential.

During the months of March and April he averaged 20/11/10 on 49/37/78 shooting splits. Those are crazy numbers and I would be thrilled if he kept playing at the level and never improved upon it.

[dougthonus]

Great. We agree. In no way does our description match the idea that he isn't worth 20 mil and is an unathletic horrible defender and shooter who doesn't fit with other players. Which I think is where this all started.

I don't think he was worth 20M a year prior to the Zach trade, but that is quite different than saying he's a bum who will never play quality basketball again, but in the end, I've said 25M is the amount I would pay him since late June or so, and we got him on that number. I'm confident that he'll be on a reasonable deal at that number.

[FriedRise]

Heh, right in the middle of where the two started initially. So much posturing all summer long, but I guess it's good to know that the Bulls can play hard ball and not just default to handing their guys big contracts. Could prove useful in future negotiations.

I do think he's worth the contract considering he can make everyone on the roster better with his playmaking, and he also contributes a lot in rebounding. Been a minute since we had a player like that. The real question will be if we ever get to a place if we have a true #1 option, where you will want to take the ball out of his hands. Can he still be a productive player? Or are we gonna have an OKC-like situation where you have to consider having him come off the bench or trading him for a better fitting player?

But we're so far away from that, and high chance we'll never have to worry about having to deal with that luxury lol.

[Stratmaster]

Best case scenario: he's the guy he was for the last couple months of the season. That's probably a max contract player.

Worst case scenario: he's an unathletic, bad defender who can't shoot or impact games when they matter. That guy's not worth even $20M.

If it weren't for those last couple month or two he wouldn't even be capable of getting the $25M he did.

Wait? WUT? Best case scenario for a 22 year old is that he plays at a level he has already played at? Worst case is he plays at a level below any level he has ever played at?

That's literally what happened to Pat. Last year, he played below any level he has ever played after signing a big extension that was viewed as a good-to-great deal and easily tradable by most. I'm not saying that will happen to Giddey, but that's why it's the worst case scenario.

I like Giddey and he's a hell of a lot better than Pat, and therefore I have way more faith in him, but he's still very much an unknown quantity to me. Contract years can sometimes be fool's gold, and that 3PT% and the level of competition he had his breakout during should give us all some slight pause, if nothing else.

And yes, the best-case scenario is he keeps up the pace he finished last season with. That was all-NBA caliber. It would be kind of crazy to expect even MORE than that already incredibly high level of play. Unless you think he has MVP-caliber potential.

During the months of March and April he averaged 20/11/10 on 49/37/78 shooting splits. Those are crazy numbers and I would be thrilled if he kept playing at the level and never improved upon it.

OK, I understand the PWill PTSD. The only difference I have with you is I never thought PWill played at an NBA level, and I don't see where he played any worse last season than he did any other season.

But the best case scenario is that Giddey continues to improve from the end of last season into a perennial all-star. Of course I don't "expect" that. That is why it is a "best case scenario". A reasonable scenario would be that he levels out at that 20/11/10 on 49/37/78. As far as my opinion.... I think he could hit pretty close to the 20/11/10 part. It is going to be less likely that he maintains the 49/37/78.

[Stratmaster]

Great. We agree. In no way does our description match the idea that he isn't worth 20 mil and is an unathletic horrible defender and shooter who doesn't fit with other players. Which I think is where this all started.

I don't think he was worth 20M a year prior to the Zach trade, but that is quite different than saying he's a bum who will never play quality basketball again, but in the end, I've said 25M is the amount I would pay him since late June or so, and we got him on that number. I'm confident that he'll be on a reasonable deal at that number.

This is the problem with responding on here. You aren't including the entire string. I responded to a comment from someone else with the verbaige that worst case scenario is he isn't worth 20 mil and is an un-athletic horrible defender and shooter who has no impact on wining. (I added the bad fit because you have stated that many times). You came to the defense of that comment saying that accurately described Giddey the first half of last season.

That player would be a bum who doesn't play quality basketball, right? So you depicted Giddey the first half of last season as exactly that.

Then, you slyly took my worst case scenario, which was NOT a player worth less than 20 mil who is an unathletic, horrible defender and shooter who doesn't fit with other players... and said we agree. You deflected the fact that you had just said the opposite by moving the discussion to my characterization of those traits as being a "bum".

I stick to my original comment. The worst case scenario opinion I was responding to, which you defended, absolutely characterized him as a player that would be considered a bum.

[TheJordanRule]

The more I think about it, the more of a steal this deal seems to be! Josh is only 22 years old, meaning his improvement over the next four years is quite likely. He's young enough to grow with whoever we decide is core worthy and yet he will continue to contribute right away. $25 mil a year in this new CBA is right between role player money and starter money. Massive upside given he's already a solid starter unlike PWill, who everybody brings up in a ridiculous comparison.

[Pipp33]

This is a great deal for Chicago, and a solid deal for Giddey, considering the league's environment this offseason.

One thing that amazes me is some fans writing off a 22 year old, because he's had 4 years in the NBA. How many of those years was he playing in a role that suited his game?

He had a very solid rookie year, and like a LOT of rookies, didn't shoot well. His second year, he improved pretty much across the board in every stat.

Then we go to the contentious 3rd year. Playing in a team, where their best player had improved to an elite level, and their 2nd year player (J-Dub) had risen to legitimate 2nd option and the team was not competing at a high level. This took the ball out of Giddey's hands and saw him play a role completely unsuited to his game. He accepted it and played his role. In games when SGA was out, Giddey played well back in that role. As also well documented, he had stuff going on off court, but not one person from OKC would say anything bad about Giddey's time with that team.

He gets to Chicago, and the team is still caught in a transition. The start of the season, Lavine was still the focal point of the team (rightly so), and Giddey's game was somewhat stifled whilst trying to figure how to fit all the squad together. It's no co-incidence that his play improved greatly after the Lavine trade.

And all this focus on his shooing, for a player that has improved from 3 EVERY season.

There's no doubt he has things to work on, and he may never be an All Star BUT he's a damn solid player, who I really hope has an outstanding season, as that's what the Bulls and us fans need to be a team on the rise.

We need to address the C spot to truly unlock the Giddey/White/Matas lineup and hopefully that happens this year.

[dougthonus]

This is the problem with responding on here. You aren't including the entire string. I responded to a comment from someone else with the verbaige that worst case scenario is he isn't worth 20 mil and is an un-athletic horrible defender and shooter who has no impact on wining. (I added the bad fit because you have stated that many times). You came to the defense of that comment saying that accurately described Giddey the first half of last season.

Those things are all true. He was an unathletic, horrible defender and shooter that was not worth 20M.

That player would be a bum who doesn't play quality basketball, right? So you depicted Giddey the first half of last season as exactly that.

He was an elite passer and rebounder during that stretch and was not a bum, just a guy not worth 20M that was a terrible defender and shooter.

Then, you slyly took my worst case scenario, which was NOT a player worth less than 20 mil who is an unathletic, horrible defender and shooter who doesn't fit with other players... and said we agree. You deflected the fact that you had just said the opposite by moving the discussion to my characterization of those traits as being a "bum".

Yes, the part I am disagreeing with is "bum that will never play quality basketball player". He played like a bench caliber PG prior to the Zach trade. Quality rotation player level, but a MLEish player.

I stick to my original comment. The worst case scenario opinion I was responding to, which you defended, absolutely characterized him as a player that would be considered a bum.

I agree with these three things:
Not worth 20M
Terrible shooter
Terrible defender
Unathletic

I disagree with:
Bum that will never play good basketball again because he was also still an elite passer and rebounder.

[Stratmaster]

This is the problem with responding on here. You aren't including the entire string. I responded to a comment from someone else with the verbaige that worst case scenario is he isn't worth 20 mil and is an un-athletic horrible defender and shooter who has no impact on wining. (I added the bad fit because you have stated that many times). You came to the defense of that comment saying that accurately described Giddey the first half of last season.

Those things are all true. He was an unathletic, horrible defender and shooter that was not worth 20M.

That player would be a bum who doesn't play quality basketball, right? So you depicted Giddey the first half of last season as exactly that.

He was an elite passer and rebounder during that stretch and was not a bum, just a guy not worth 20M that was a terrible defender and shooter.

Then, you slyly took my worst case scenario, which was NOT a player worth less than 20 mil who is an unathletic, horrible defender and shooter who doesn't fit with other players... and said we agree. You deflected the fact that you had just said the opposite by moving the discussion to my characterization of those traits as being a "bum".

Yes, the part I am disagreeing with is "bum that will never play quality basketball player". He played like a bench caliber PG prior to the Zach trade. Quality rotation player level, but a MLEish player.

I stick to my original comment. The worst case scenario opinion I was responding to, which you defended, absolutely characterized him as a player that would be considered a bum.

I agree with these three things:
Not worth 20M
Terrible shooter
Terrible defender
Unathletic

I disagree with:
Bum that will never play good basketball again because he was also still an elite passer and rebounder.

Why do you consider him unathletic? Is strength an athletic trait? Ball handling coordination? Of you mean he doesn't jump through the roof...sure. yet he outrebounds guys who do and guys who are bigger? If he is unathletic then he must be a basketball genius and savant. Are those traits worth 20 million? Was Kukoc "unathletic"?

He was the most disruptive defender on the team all of last season. Certainly not going to keep PG's in front of him but he shouldn't be asked to. What do you base "horrible defender" on? Or even horrible shooter? He didn't shoot horrible last season (and I don't mean just the last half).

So you have some ranking that falls in between elite and horrible or is it one or the other?

I will paraphrase my original statement. Your positionsand comments about Giddey make me believe you thought he sucked. His showing last season is forcing you to rethink your assessment. Thats cool. We all have to do it.

[dougthonus]

Why do you consider him unathletic? Is strength an athletic trait? Ball handling coordination? Of you mean he doesn't jump through the roof...sure. yet he outrebounds guys who do and guys who are bigger? If he is unathletic then he must be a basketball genius and savant. Are those traits worth 20 million? Was Kukoc "unathletic"?

He lacks strength, lateral quickness, quickness, leaping, are you really arguing that the term "unathletic" to describe Giddey is inaccurate?

And yes, I do think Giddey is a basketball savant FWIW.

He was the most disruptive defender on the team all of last season. Certainly not going to keep PG's in front of him but he shouldn't be asked to. What do you base "horrible defender" on? Or even horrible shooter? He didn't shoot horrible last season (and I don't mean just the last half).

I don't really care to argue about his first half defense, if you think otherwise, that's okay. It's not worth debating what he was in the first half of the season if you think he was a 20M+ player then, more power to you. I disagree. I think he will be worth a 25M contract going forward, so it doesn't really matter what he was worth then, only in the future, which I'm sure we're both hoping for the best.

I was merely clarifying the difference in what you stated and I replied to. The extrapolation of unathletic, terrible shooter, terrible defender (which feel accurate to me) to unplayable bum was what I was disagreeing with.

[Chi town]

https://youtu.be/fXGK6z3vwZM?si=YRsjWDLavcd4YmPs

Sam Vecenie on Giddey Coby Bulls.

[Stratmaster]

Why do you consider him unathletic? Is strength an athletic trait? Ball handling coordination? Of you mean he doesn't jump through the roof...sure. yet he outrebounds guys who do and guys who are bigger? If he is unathletic then he must be a basketball genius and savant. Are those traits worth 20 million? Was Kukoc "unathletic"?

He lacks strength, lateral quickness, quickness, leaping, are you really arguing that the term "unathletic" to describe Giddey is inaccurate?

And yes, I do think Giddey is a basketball savant FWIW.

He was the most disruptive defender on the team all of last season. Certainly not going to keep PG's in front of him but he shouldn't be asked to. What do you base "horrible defender" on? Or even horrible shooter? He didn't shoot horrible last season (and I don't mean just the last half).

I don't really care to argue about his first half defense, if you think otherwise, that's okay. It's not worth debating what he was in the first half of the season if you think he was a 20M+ player then, more power to you. I disagree. I think he will be worth a 25M contract going forward, so it doesn't really matter what he was worth then, only in the future, which I'm sure we're both hoping for the best.

I was merely clarifying the difference in what you stated and I replied to. The extrapolation of unathletic, terrible shooter, terrible defender (which feel accurate to me) to unplayable bum was what I was disagreeing with.

So the 6'9" guy who outrebounds players taller and bigger than him, successfully drives into contact in the lane dribbling around point guards lacks strength and quickness? I am arguing that stating athleticism is a detriment for Giddey is completely false. I could agree on average. But average athleticism doesn't make him less than a horrible, 20 million player.

Again, the numbers show he was the most disruptive defensive player on the team. He had the most "STOCKS", the best DBPM, the 2nd best DWS, and the 2nd most defensive rebounds per game. Like all stats, but especially defensive ones, those need to be taken in context. Regardless, someone who is getting blocks, steals and rebounds is doing something right defensively, even if they are doing other things wrong. All of this certainly doesn't indicate a "horrible" player defensively regardless of your subjective opinion.

47% from the field and 38% from 3 are not "terrible shooting", sorry. those are the fulls eason numbers, not cherry-picking the hot streak only.

But again, you have successfully morphed the conversation away from what started it ( the discussion of "worst case scenario" and you backing up the negative opinion I responded to) and now deflect by saying "it doesn't matter". I guess it only mattered for as long as you thought you could defend the position.

[dougthonus]

So the 6'9" guy who outrebounds players taller and bigger than him, successfully drives into contact in the lane dribbling around point guards lacks strength and quickness? I am arguing that stating athleticism is a detriment for Giddey is completely false. I could agree on average. But average athleticism doesn't make him less than a horrible, 20 million player.

Again, the numbers show he was the most disruptive defensive player on the team. He had the most "STOCKS", the best DBPM, the 2nd best DWS, and the 2nd most defensive rebounds per game. Like all stats, but especially defensive ones, those need to be taken in context. Regardless, someone who is getting blocks, steals and rebounds is doing something right defensively, even if they are doing other things wrong. All of this certainly doesn't indicate a "horrible" player defensively regardless of your subjective opinion.

47% from the field and 38% from 3 are not "terrible shooting", sorry. those are the fulls eason numbers, not cherry-picking the hot streak only.

But again, you have successfully morphed the conversation away from what started it ( the discussion of "worst case scenario" and you backing up the negative opinion I responded to) and now deflect by saying "it doesn't matter". I guess it only mattered for as long as you thought you could defend the position.

Okay, why do you think Giddey is not a consensus, obvious max player / superstar?

Because if it isn't his athleticism, defense, and shooting, I have no idea what else it would be.

[Infinity2152]

I think to be considered a "concensus, obvious max player/superstar" at guard, you have to show outstanding shooting or athleticism. Really struggling to think of one guard with average shooting and athleticism that's an "obvious max player" regardless of what else they bring to the table. Doesn't mean they're not very good guards or players. If EVERYBODY accepted Giddey was league average on shooting and athleticism, still don't think he's considered an obvious max player by many people. I look at Tra young, James Harden, Luka Doncic, they're fairly weak athletes and bad defenders but tremendous scorers and automatically get max.

Similar to those guys, Giddey's elite skill imo is pushing an offense, playmaking, and he's played most of his career with that being stifled. Four years actually running an offense, actually playing PG instead of small forward and power forward, maybe he looks a lot more like a max player. He ran PG for a year, was pretty spectacular, and everybody wants to throw those numbers out and go to his performance the year before as a 20 yr old PF, and the year before as a 19 yr old SF. I think if any of those guys were average NBA shooters, their contracts look a lot closer to $30 mill than max, especially Young.

[jnrjr79]

On the “athletic” question, this is what I’d say:

He’s not exceptionally fast. He *is* quite fast with the ball in his hands relative to other players with the ball in their hands, due to his handle.

I do not know whether he is strong in the sense of “how much can you bench,” but he’s sure as hell very tough and plays like a strong player.

He does not seem to have much jumping ability.

“Athletic” seems to me to mostly be some combination of fast/strong/jumping. In that regard, Giddey is fast on offense, but not defense, plays strong enough IMO, but isn’t a jumper. His athleticism relative to other NBA players is ok, but not great. Probably below average for an NBA player, but not horribly so. But his BBIQ seems very high. That’s where I hope he may well develop a real “crafty” element to his game that makes him an overall above average NBA player. There are plenty of very good NBA players who you wouldn’t describe as particularly athletic relative to other NBA players. Guys who can really see the floor and know how to use their bodies and tempo to create advantages.