2025 Around MLB Playoffs Discussion

[Randle McMurphy]

Arizona does the job. Collapse delayed for now.

[JN]

While there are wildcard contenders in the central and west, they are all fighting for the #6 seed.
That means that are real positive implications for finishing #1 or #2 in the AL East.

Obviously we want first place - The first round bye. It would be disappointing to lose that (5 up with 19 to go)
But if we finish 2nd, at this point its close to certain that we would be hosting the 3 game first round series.

And being 5.0 and 5.5 games up on New York and Boston with 19 games to go, its going to be very hard for both of them to pass us.

[Randle McMurphy]

Red Sox get the win as well to move even closer

The collapse is here, 2nd WC spot on the road is likely.

[bluerap23]

So negative about everything not Varsho or Kirk. Relax - we still have a very good chance of winning division and securing a bye. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[pingpongrac]

So negative about everything not Varsho or Kirk. Relax - we still have a very good chance of winning division and securing a bye. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

For real lol. Even with all of the bullpen/pitching struggles of late, we're still 18-15 since August 1st and we're essentially 3 games ahead of both the Yankees and Red Sox – which is generally where we've been at the beginning of the week for the past month and a half – with only three weeks to go. With our two best starters slated for G2 and G3 against the Astros – while also dodging the top of their rotation – then a weekend home series against the Orioles, the odds of us winning 4 (or even 5) of 6 this week is pretty high. Even if we were to continue to be pretty average and finish off the season going 10-9 in these last 19 games, the odds of both the Yankees and Red Sox winning ~13 games is nearly improbable considering they play each other three more times and Boston only has 17 games remaining while the Yankees are starting a 3-game series against the Tigers tonight.

It would be less than ideal, but it seems to me that the worst-case scenario is getting the top WC spot and dealing with either the Mariners or Astros – which likely isn't much different than if we won the division aside from the HCA aspect going to the opposition. Considering almost everyone (myself included) thought this team was pretty mid and had very little chance of contending this season, I'd gladly take a 90+ win season and at the very least some playoff baseball.

[Parataxis]

It would be less than ideal, but it seems to me that the worst-case scenario is getting the top WC spot and dealing with either the Mariners or Astros – which likely isn't much different than if we won the division aside from the HCA aspect going to the opposition. Considering almost everyone (myself included) thought this team was pretty mid and had very little chance of contending this season, I'd gladly take a 90+ win season and at the very least some playoff baseball.

If we finish with the top WC spot, aren't we more likely to face the Yankees/Sox than the Mariners? Last division lead spot faces the lowest WC team.

[pingpongrac]

It would be less than ideal, but it seems to me that the worst-case scenario is getting the top WC spot and dealing with either the Mariners or Astros – which likely isn't much different than if we won the division aside from the HCA aspect going to the opposition. Considering almost everyone (myself included) thought this team was pretty mid and had very little chance of contending this season, I'd gladly take a 90+ win season and at the very least some playoff baseball.

If we finish with the top WC spot, aren't we more likely to face the Yankees/Sox than the Mariners? Last division lead spot faces the lowest WC team.

Yeah, that's my mistake. I meant that the absolute worst-case scenario would be getting the last WC spot and still playing either the Mariners or Astros. Regardless, a lot has to go wrong for us and a lot has to go right for the Yankees – and even more so for the Red Sox with 2 less games remaining – for us to not be at the top of the AL East at the end of the month. I know people like to joke about our struggles against the Orioles and Rays over the years, but those are teams that we should beat in the final weeks of the season...and if we aren't leading the division at the end of the season, it probably means Baltimore and Tampa ruined our season.

[Randle McMurphy]

So negative about everything not Varsho or Kirk. Relax - we still have a very good chance of winning division and securing a bye. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

The Jays have been getting chased down in that marathon for weeks now, have a far more difficult schedule than NYY and have just lost Bichette for at least the next few weeks.

The division is gone, the goal now is just to get into a WC spot.

[pingpongrac]

So negative about everything not Varsho or Kirk. Relax - we still have a very good chance of winning division and securing a bye. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

The Jays have been getting chased down in that marathon for weeks now, have a far more difficult schedule than NYY and have just lost Bichette for at least the next few weeks.

The division is gone, the goal now is just to get into a WC spot.

You've been acting like the sky is falling for a long time, but not much has changed; on July 31st, we had a 3.5 game lead on the Yankees and 7.0 game lead for the last WC spot whereas now we have a 2.0 game lead (but still essentially 3 because of the tiebreaker) and 8.0 game lead for the last WC spot. It took the Yankees 30+ games to gain a whopping 1.5 games on us in the standings yet you think it's a foregone conclusion that they will nearly triple that in the last 19 games to take the division? Win tonight and hope the Yankees lose then we're in the exact same spot as we were 6 weeks ago.

Also, where are you getting this "we have a far more difficult schedule" info from? SOS difference of 3% is pretty minimal, especially considering the next two series for the Yankees are against the Tigers and Red Sox – who they are a combined 3-11 against thus far – while we also play an extra series at home. Being without Bo for the next week or so obviously hurts, but we are still more than capable of winning at least 3 games...at which point we are likely further ahead of the Yankees with only 13 games remaining.

[Randle McMurphy]

So negative about everything not Varsho or Kirk. Relax - we still have a very good chance of winning division and securing a bye. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

The Jays have been getting chased down in that marathon for weeks now, have a far more difficult schedule than NYY and have just lost Bichette for at least the next few weeks.

The division is gone, the goal now is just to get into a WC spot.

You've been acting like the sky is falling for a long time, but not much has changed; on July 31st, we had a 3.5 game lead on the Yankees and 7.0 game lead for the last WC spot whereas now we have a 2.0 game lead (but still essentially 3 because of the tiebreaker) and 8.0 game lead for the last WC spot. It took the Yankees 30+ games to gain a whopping 1.5 games on us in the standings yet you think it's a foregone conclusion that they will nearly triple that in the last 19 games to take the division? Win tonight and hope the Yankees lose then we're in the exact same spot as we were 6 weeks ago.

Also, where are you getting this "we have a far more difficult schedule" info from? SOS difference of 3% is pretty minimal, especially considering the next two series for the Yankees are against the Tigers and Red Sox – who they are a combined 3-11 against thus far – while we also play an extra series at home. Being without Bo for the next week or so obviously hurts, but we are still more than capable of winning at least 3 games...at which point we are likely further ahead of the Yankees with only 13 games remaining.

Read on Twitter

Bo is out with no timeline to return. I'd be surprised if he played again this year, especially with his free agency this fall.

The Jays were already at a major talent deficit compared to the Yankees and this won't help with that at all. The division is gone, we don't have the team to sustain that kind of minor lead for the next three weeks given our schedule. Just have to hope for some kind of lucky run as a mediocre WC team, it's happened before.

[Potential]

I doubt Bo misses the playoffs at all but if that was to somehow happen then I truly believe Davis Schneider will turn into Steve Pearce

[Randle McMurphy]

I doubt Bo misses the playoffs at all but if that was to somehow happen then I truly believe Davis Schneider will turn into Steve Pearce

He's not gonna play through a tear in his knee with potentially hundreds of millions on the line. There's a decent chance he's played his last game as a Jay.

IKF is gonna have to be our Alcides Escobar in October.

[Ranger One]

Bichette is dumb as bricks. Who the hell slides into home KNEES FIRST?? He's already been one of the worst base runners this year, and then to add to it he looks like he put on 50 lbs and runs slower than Kirk. Dunno what the hell happened to him this year. Did he need to put on that much weight to improve his hitting?? i dont get it.

[Parataxis]

It's not often you see a 12-2 final score where somebody earns a save.

Gosh, when the Yankees implode, they go hard.

[JN]

Not that we are guaranteed to get a bye at this point, lots of work to do.
But it seems that being the #2 seed is better than the #1 seed in the AL.

The #1 seed would play Boston vs New York winner. *Again making the far from guaranteed assumption that we win the East)
The #2 seed would play Houston vs Final Wild Card Winner (Texas?)

[Randle McMurphy]

Yankees and Sox lose so the status quo remains there in the division but the Rangers win to move the WC lead to only 7 games.

The collapse is still on.

[pingpongrac]

Yankees and Sox lose so the status quo remains there in the division but the Rangers win to move the WC lead to only 7 games.

The collapse is still on.

0-17, here we come!

[JN]

Yankees and Sox lose so the status quo remains there in the division but the Rangers win to move the WC lead to only 7 games.

The collapse is still on.

Effectively 8 games with the tiebreaker — and 17 games to go.

Give it up man.

[dchoye]

There will be no collapse
Blue Jays win win the division
I’m calling it now

[Randle McMurphy]

Detroit threw a total scrub out there today to get destroyed by NYY. Back to 3 games it is.

With the Yankees now playing only one decent team the rest of the season (BOS this weekend), the collapse is still very much on.