Celtics Defense 25-26

jmr07019 · Post #1 » by **jmr07019** » Wed Sep 10, 2025 5:59 pm

Last year regular season:

#1 team in wins Oklahoma City was #1 in defensive rating
#2 team in wins Cleveland was #8 in defensive rating
#3 team in wins Boston was #4 in defensive rating
#28 team in wins Charlotte #24 in defensive rating
#29 team in wins Washington was #28 in defensive rating
#30 team in wins Utah was #30 in defensive rating

There's clearly a strong correlation between defensive rating and wins. Here's how the Celtics have done recently:

24-25: 4th
23-24: 2nd
22-23: 2nd
21-22: 1st
20-21: 13th

The Celtics have had a lot of roster turnover this summer. We are all expecting a drop in defensive rating. Just how far are they going to fall?

I am voting 16-20. Effort can take you far. In the 15-16 season the Celtics top 8 in mpg were Bradley, IT, Crowder, Turner, Smart, Sully, Amir and KO. That team finished 7th in defensive rating despite 3/8 of the lineup (IT, KO and Sully) being sub par or worse defensively. So despite concerns about Simons, Pritchard, Garza and others I think the Celtics will find away to have a middle of the pack defense. My biggest concern this year is Queta's ability to avoid foul trouble. It has been a problem for him in the past. If he is able to stay on the floor Celtics will be alright.

hugepatsfan · Post #2 » by **hugepatsfan** » Thu Sep 11, 2025 7:52 am

The correlation at the top and bottom is interesting, but how does it look throughout. Anecdotally, it feels like there could be more variance in the middle. Like without great defense, you won't be able to be great and with terrible defense you're doomed to be bad. BUT it feels like the closer you get to the middle, the more you can have one-sided teams carry their record. Like a 7th offense and 23rd defense wouldn't surprise me to be 12th best record or vice versa. The middle of the league feels more homogenized in overall talent level so there's more ways to get there being carried by one side.

Jammer · Post #3 » by **Jammer** » Thu Sep 11, 2025 8:44 am

I voted 21-25 because the loss of:

Jayson Tatum
Al Horford
Kristaps Porzingis
Jrue Holiday
Luke Kornet

is going to crush them in the front court, rebounding wise, and with their switching.

It's going to take a lot of effort just to be 21-25.

jmr07019 · Post #4 » by **jmr07019** » Thu Sep 11, 2025 11:46 am

hugepatsfan wrote:The correlation at the top and bottom is interesting, but how does it look throughout. Anecdotally, it feels like there could be more variance in the middle. Like without great defense, you won't be able to be great and with terrible defense you're doomed to be bad. BUT it feels like the closer you get to the middle, the more you can have one-sided teams carry their record. Like a 7th offense and 23rd defense wouldn't surprise me to be 12th best record or vice versa. The middle of the league feels more homogenized in overall talent level so there's more ways to get there being carried by one side.

Warriors tied for #11 in wins, #7 in D Rating
Griz tied for #11 in wins, #11 in D Rating
Bucks were tied for #11 in wins, #12 in D Rating
Pistons were #14 in wins, #10 in D Rating
Magic were #15 in wins, #2 in D Rating
Hawks tied for #16 in wins, #18 in D Rating
Kings tied for #16 in wins, #22 in D Rating
Bulls tied for #18 in wins, #19 in D Rating
Mavs tied for #18 in wins, #20 in D Rating
Heat were #20 in wins, #9 in D Rating

Last years data above. I expected more variance between wins and D Rating and what you suggested to be true but the correlation is stronger than expected.

I expect the Celtics offense to be better than their defense and their win percentage to be better than their defensive rating.

playa-hater · Post #5 » by **playa-hater** » Fri Sep 12, 2025 2:46 am

Jammer wrote:I voted 21-25 because the loss of:

Jayson Tatum
Al Horford
Kristaps Porzingis
Jrue Holiday
Luke Kornet

is going to crush them in the front court, rebounding wise, and with their switching.

It's going to take a lot of effort just to be 21-25.

Like you said the players we lost, compounded by who may be replacing them, doesn't give me a a ton of Hope in that Regard.

Jammer · Post #6 » by **Jammer** » Fri Sep 12, 2025 2:48 am

playa-hater wrote:
Jammer wrote:I voted 21-25 because the loss of:

Jayson Tatum
Al Horford
Kristaps Porzingis
Jrue Holiday
Luke Kornet

is going to crush them in the front court, rebounding wise, and with their switching.

It's going to take a lot of effort just to be 21-25.

Like you said the players we lost, compounded by who may be replacing them, doesn't give me a a ton of Hope in that Regard.

Yep. Off the top of my head, we are better defensively than Brooklyn and Utah. Other than that, I'm not sure where the Celtics will end up. If any of there Top 8 Healthy players go down, they're looking at possibly bottom five.

Curmudgeon · Post #7 » by **Curmudgeon** » Fri Sep 12, 2025 3:06 am

If they trade Simons, 11-15. If they keep him, 21-25 or worse.

Post #8 » by **165bows** » Fri Sep 12, 2025 10:10 am

Middle of the pack, I’ll call it 17-18.

They lost a lot, but on the other hand… they weren’t super athletic in several spots (Al, Luke), those two guys didn’t actually play a ton, Al was a great defender but numerically saved himself on D for the playoffs, and they were just spent from 4 conference finals appearances or more in a row plus the Olympics.

jmr07019 · Post #9 » by **jmr07019** » Fri Sep 12, 2025 10:50 am

Jammer wrote:
playa-hater wrote:
Jammer wrote:I voted 21-25 because the loss of:

Jayson Tatum
Al Horford
Kristaps Porzingis
Jrue Holiday
Luke Kornet

is going to crush them in the front court, rebounding wise, and with their switching.

It's going to take a lot of effort just to be 21-25.

Like you said the players we lost, compounded by who may be replacing them, doesn't give me a a ton of Hope in that Regard.

Yep. Off the top of my head, we are better defensively than Brooklyn and Utah. Other than that, I'm not sure where the Celtics will end up. If any of there Top 8 Healthy players go down, they're looking at possibly bottom five.

I'll take the Celtics over these 8 teams Brooklyn, Washington, Charlotte, Philly, Pels, Suns, Jazz, Kings

Celtics defense will be similar to these 7 teams and they likely finish ahead of 3-4 of them Chicago, Atlanta, Lakers, Blazers, Toronto, Spurs, Nuggets.

By the way despite Simons presence on the roster Portland finished 16th in defensive rating last year.

Post #10 » by **bisme37** » Fri Sep 12, 2025 5:00 pm

I find team defense hard to predict. I still remember tripping out a few years back at how the C's had a consistent top-5 defense starting guys like IT, Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk. It's more about how the parts work together as a team than the individual parts. I trust Joe and the guys to figure it out.

brackdan70 · Post #11 » by **brackdan70** » Sun Sep 14, 2025 1:38 am

bisme37 wrote:I find team defense hard to predict. I still remember tripping out a few years back at how the C's had a consistent top-5 defense starting guys like IT, Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk. It's more about how the parts work together as a team than the individual parts. I trust Joe and the guys to figure it out.

Also had Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart and Amir Johnson.
We could use an Amir Johnson type or maybe we have him already in Boucher?

Larry_Russell · Post #12 » by **Larry_Russell** » Tue Sep 16, 2025 2:48 pm

Jammer wrote:I voted 21-25 because the loss of:

Jayson Tatum
Al Horford
Kristaps Porzingis
Jrue Holiday
Luke Kornet

is going to crush them in the front court, rebounding wise, and with their switching.

It's going to take a lot of effort just to be 21-25.

Agree with this, although I will add that not only did we lose those guys who had a massive impact on defense overall, we also added negative impact on defense to go with it.