Sengun's Ceiling Next Season

[Sane]

If you've been watching Eurobasket, then you've seen there are hints of a possible major step up coming for Sengun. So far his team has knocked out Jokic and Giannis. Even when he's not scoring, it's because they're double teaming him and his teammates are being left open for 3's. This is one of the most difficult official tournaments in the world.

With Durant joining the Rockets it's going to be a lot harder to double Sengun. He's basically never played with a better player than him in the NBA. Going to see a lot more open looks especially with Jabari and Durant replacing Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks as shooters.

I won't be surprised if he explodes offensively next season. He was already passable defensively in the playoffs.

Where do you see his ceiling next season?

[The Master]

The more I think about him, the more I see Pau Gasol-esque career (great from very early on, super versatile, better defender than guys like Sabonis, versatile enough to be amazing 2nd/3rd option on offense, amazing international career considering the talent that Turkey has) - and that would be one hell of a career.

To get to the ~superstar territory, he has to improve as a scorer though. I don't see any shooting growth during Eurobasket and he wouldn't be so overpowering as a player against the NBA competition. Hard to tell how much he can improve as a scorer: he's a ~solid defender, amazing playmaker and great offensive rebounder for his position, he's not a decent shooter nor off-ball scorer yet.

I don't think KD is 1A offensive option at this stage of his career though, so he'll be helpful for the Rockets, but will he be revolutionary for them? I don't think so.

[firedavidkahn]

I doubt his PPG will increase that much if at all.

Durant is obviously the first option and I'm sure Amen is going to take on a lot more responsibility on offense this year.

His impact though will go through the roof. Sengun is legit.

[Sane]

I don't see any shooting growth during Eurobasket and he wouldn't be so overpowering as a player against the NBA competition.

You might be surprised by his averages. He's shooting over 35% on 2 3PA per game. He's not been able to do that for Turkey previously so it's a definite improvement. He's known to be intensively working on it this summer. If you can hit 35% overall then you can certainly hit 36-37% of your wide open looks which is a massive improvement if he can achieve that. He's just a 23 year old C he has a couple of years to get better at this.

[MessiahUjiri]

The more I think about him, the more I see Pau Gasol-esque career (great from very early on, super versatile, better defender than guys like Sabonis, versatile enough to be amazing 2nd/3rd option on offense, amazing international career considering the talent that Turkey has) - and that would be one hell of a career.

To get to the ~superstar territory, he has to improve as a scorer though. I don't see any shooting growth during Eurobasket and he wouldn't be so overpowering as a player against the NBA competition. Hard to tell how much he can improve as a scorer: he's a ~solid defender, amazing playmaker and great offensive rebounder for his position, he's not a decent shooter nor off-ball scorer yet.

I don't think KD is 1A offensive option at this stage of his career though, so he'll be helpful for the Rockets, but will he be revolutionary for them? I don't think so.

Pau is a great comparison.

Rockets don’t need KD to be a 27+ppg guy anymore though. If he’s doing 22+ and is healthy for the playoffs, that’s all you need. His clutch shooting and floor spacing itself will make everyone’s lives easier.

Amen Thompson will likely grow to be in the 20ppg range too. And you have guys like Jabari and FVV who will be hovering around 15ppg.

If healthy, Houston and Denver are my favorites for the WCF.

[The Master]

You might be surprised by his averages. He's shooting over 35% on 2 3PA per game. He's not been able to do that for Turkey previously so it's a definite improvement. He's known to be intensively working on it this summer. If you can hit 35% overall then you can certainly hit 36-37% of your wide open looks which is a massive improvement if he can achieve that. He's just a 23 year old C he has a couple of years to get better at this.

Small sample size, he's 6/17 from 3s, one 3 pointer made less and that would be 29%. He's also 74% from FT during Eurobasket, and that's perhaps a better argument for his improvement, but again - I'm not saying that he can't improve, he's still super young, I'm saying that he has to become a significantly better shooter to become a superstar, and I don't think that he showed so far this necessary improvement, if we speak about the next year only.

[Clav]

I like his game a lot. Post moves, counters, toughness, screens and passing, occassional shooting, rebounding. The shot blocking isn't perfect but he's a viable defender. With KD as an outlet, there's going to be numerous opportunities to diversify the game even more. Another positive is that he's been a reliable player, rarely misses games. Sengun fits really well into that 3rd/4th option which is exactly where he is at.

side-note - can't wait to see PnR/DHO with Sengun/KD because big screening for KD will harken back to OKC days with Adams. Oh, surprise! Adams also on Houston.

[brutalitops]

I keep trashing him saying he's a slow footed less skilled Jokic who will need to round out his skills to become an efficient C in todays NBA. That rebounds are nice and a good creative touch but that wont get you to elite

He keeps saying "Watch this" and refusing to round out his development and just doubling down become a more skilled floor general, make any minus he has as a defender by rebounding hard, killing possessions and then just working hard to contribute points and pressure the key to help his team mates

I'm going to stop now, I Believe I was right about him, I would like to see him improve his defence a lot, But the best thing to do is If you cant defend, You find a way to stay on the court in those situations, in being a great rebounder, contesting without fouling, and yeah he's done everything he needs to do without causing issues on that side of the court. You can EASILY carry 2/3 bad defenders when you play disiplined and do stuff like he does on D

[MoreyWins]

His ceiling for next season are 20-10-7 averages with good defense. I don't see a major jump in his shooting, but am hopeful his touch around the rim returns. He looks more confident as the point center and Turkiye is showing how effective it can be to play off him.

[GeorgeSears]

No midrange jumper is a problem. His scoring is all near the basket.

[Airmiess]

him and KD will be Kobe and Pau 2.0
/green

[pipfan]

I love Houston's team-I could see a great OKC/Rockets WCF next spring. KD's gonna help a ton

[cupcakesnake]

I'd settle for Sengun getting back to his year 3 scoring efficiency. He fell off dramatically last year in the short midrange and midrange, the place where he gets over half his offense. The man was hitting half his shots from 3-16 feet for 2 seasons, and then fell to 45% in the short midrange, and 39% in the midrange. He went from being a solidly efficient scorer, to a negative efficiency one. It did not work in Houston this year for Sengun.

An annoying thing about the Rockets was always Jalen Green taking more shots than Sengun. They finally stopped that trend in the playoffs, when it was clear that Green's offense wasn't going to do anything, and they needed to live and die by Sengun trying to get something in the paint. Now Green is gone, and a 37-year-old Durant takes his place.

If last year was just a bad blip, and Alpy can return to hitting his shots on those nice post move counters, that's all he really needs to do his job.

[cupcakesnake]

No midrange jumper is a problem. His scoring is all near the basket.

Nah he was an strong midrange scorer until last year. Not sure why his shooting touch fell off, but hopefully it comes back. He doesn't have range outside 16 feet, I'll give you that.

[freestyler34]

I keep trashing him saying he's a slow footed less skilled Jokic who will need to round out his skills to become an efficient C in todays NBA. That rebounds are nice and a good creative touch but that wont get you to elite

He keeps saying "Watch this" and refusing to round out his development and just doubling down become a more skilled floor general, make any minus he has as a defender by rebounding hard, killing possessions and then just working hard to contribute points and pressure the key to help his team mates

I'm going to stop now, I Believe I was right about him, I would like to see him improve his defence a lot, But the best thing to do is If you cant defend, You find a way to stay on the court in those situations, in being a great rebounder, contesting without fouling, and yeah he's done everything he needs to do without causing issues on that side of the court. You can EASILY carry 2/3 bad defenders when you play disiplined and do stuff like he does on D

His foot alot faster than Jokics, also hes a solid defender now he imporoved alot last seasons

[Chuck Everett]

I still keep coming back to 'what is his bread and butter' come postseason time? He likes to do so many different things (and he does them well), but I still don't know what his tried-and-true is that unlocks him. Since he likes to play close to the basket, even a face-up 8-12 ft baseline jumpshot would be a weapon.

However, one rough playoff series against a vet like Draymond isn't going to have me throw baby out with the bathwater. If the guy continues to elevate his efficiency, he turns into a darkhorse MVP contender.

Needs to become a better free throw shooter though. You wanna throw your body around, you better make your damn free throws.

[LarsV8]

Hopefully better than last year, where we saw his efficiency plummet, as he tried to expand his game further from the basket. His international play is nothing but promising, but hard to predict how much of that is indicative of future impact in the NBA. He is already great, and no reason to believe he won't continue to improve, as he is very young, but his limitations were always physical and shooting, which I think is the real hurdle that will be hard to overcome. I am not as high on him, as alot of other folks, but happy to be proven wrong. If he could flesh out his shooting a bit more, and be able to play like a stretch four, allowing room for more of a defensive presence in the other big slot, that could change things quite a bit. The double big lineups are hilarious where they experiment with this. It craters the traditional offense, but we had so many great defenders, it becomes quite suffocating.

I tend to evaluate players on where would they fit in a hypothetical, title favoring, 60-65 win team, which is my preference of how you should approach teambuilding. Not to say you need that team, to be competitive, or win a title, but that is how I approach it. I think that his role on that type of team is a third option / best player, probably in a super sixth man role (ala Ginobili), where you can leverage his strengths as an iso scorer, and hide some of his weaknesses as a defensive presence.

He is a nice luxury to have, but I think the Rockets organization is itching for Giannis to become available, so they can offer a package built around Sengun. This will upset alot of people who like to view him as the Rockets franchise player, but that might be the unfortunate reality. There is an all too common misstep in NBA team building where you build around guys who just aren't good enough to be #1 guys on title teams. Its easy to hide behind the "they are still young" mantra, but eventually, they aren't young anymore, and team "momentum" crashes. I worry about that quite a bit with this team. Its very possible that next year is the best chance this era of Rockets ball will have at winning a title, and the future improvement of the kids, is offset by the decline of the veterans.

We will see what happens.

[Dan Z]

I was surprised when OKC trade him on draft day.

[brackdan70]

Ceiling is a top 25 player. 3rd team all NBA.

[HardenGoat]

I still think he can be built around as a franchise player similar to what Denver did with Jokic. There is a lot of similarities, he is a good passer and team player. He has to get his mid range game polished and a reliable 3 ball that can bait his defender to come out like Jokic does. I see that coming, he has the mechanics. I think he’s becoming a really good defender and has a high ceiling in that aspect. I would not trade him for Giannis. He could become his own superstar, he’s only 23.