Presti's Tree Reaches DC: The Official Will Dawkins Thread

[payitforward]

I would bet the farm that Bilal Coulibaly has a much better NBA career than Jaquez.

Me too.

But, even if he doesn't, no one -- not even leswizards -- would have taken Jaquez over Bilal! & that is the key point.

[doclinkin]

Regardless, I'll wait and see what Dawkins does. Surely, McCollum and/or Middleton will be traded. They're talented players who could make this team too good.

They’ll both likely be under a minutes cap while we test out roster configurations. Probably with Middleton coming off the bench since we are deep in youth at his position. Both are late career players in their 30s. Yes, if they look good a playoff bound team may offer a deal to pick them up. Both are on expiring contracts as well so a team that needs cap relief may put in a bid. I don’t expect we keep them past mid season.

Meanwhile I hope they do play well.

They’ll be surrounded by a mob of young eager players peppering them with questions trying to learn from their games. We heard last year about Bub and Kyshawn quizzing Smart from the minute he stepped off the bus. Both talked about implementing aspects of that advice mid-game. In the Riley thread I quoted how eager he is to get to camp with them because he is an admirer of their games and wants to learn from them.

Reports suggest Middleton may be less of a vocal mentor. Players can learn from his example for sure but even Giannis who is his best friend in the league says they don’t talk much.

But CJ as the outgoing union President is a guy who is vocal and thoughtful and forward thinking. I get the impression he has business ventures lined up for when he retires so probably won’t go into coaching. I could see him in a front office somewhere actually, and definitely could see him and Dawkins building rapport. They give off the same vibe. Still in interviews you get the sense he understands he’s got limited time left in the game and is interested in how to make it meaningful.

Teaching Bub the tricks and wrinkles of being a scoring Point may have appeal. The kid has charisma in spades, is a basketball student since birth. CJs style is a ground bound game based on trickery and quick reads, an ideal match for Bub’s style. I can see the savvy vet appreciating the role of being Yoda to guys like Bub, Riley — even Kyshawn, Cam, Bilal.

Hell Sarr is a wannabe point guard in a giants body.

I think the team will accept any wins they get from the youth getting better. It’s just that a team of players on rookie contracts generally doesn’t win against all stars and veteran starters. Other than KMidd CJ and Gill our entire team is mid 20s and younger. They can try as hard as they want and will probably still be outmatched against the rest of the league.

Attitude wise I don’t think they’re going to be learning any bad habits. We shipped Kuzma and his lazy too cool affect. Instead we add Khris whose entire game is based on BBIQ and competitive fire. We swapped out Poole who works his tail off in the gym but slacks on defense and likes showboating. In his place we add the occasionally too-serious and highly professional CJ.

Around these guys we fill the gym with basketball addicts. Coaches kids Bub & Tre & Riley. Sons of pro ballers like Sarr and George. East Coast ballers like Brooklyn’s Champagnie, New Jersey kid Watkins, Baltimore’s Bub and Whitmore. We’ve got guys like Kyshawn, Bilal, Sarr, Vuk playing for national pride over the summer. High level competition under dedicated coaches. Multiple guys on the squad who admit freely they have no life outside of practice and the gym. Kyshawn. Tre. Riley.

This is not the days of ‘Bulletproof’ Andray Blanche who wasted his natural abilities out partying late every night. getting shot at the club at 3am or picked up for soliciting pros. Or the Cinnamon brothers Young and McGee who never really focused on development and improvement of their considerable talents.

I agree with you CJ and Middleton are talented. But they are the kind of talented that has had to work to earn minutes. Look at their stats from their first seasons in the league and they don’t look any better than our rookie mob. Both came into the NBA older than anyone from the past 2 drafts other than Watkins. We have players on this team who start out with more pure talent than either vet. If by osmosis or effort they can pick up some of the work ethic and mindset of these two, they’ll go far.

But I don’t think they’ll be stunted or quit on the struggle of learning to win. If anything is true about the guys Dawkins has drafted and gathered it seems to be they live the game. Reports say they’ve been in the gym since May 1. If you follow any on social media you see them training all the time. Those who aren’t competing overseas are in the gym getting better. Yes at some point we have a core to build around. We add the right vets. Until then I’m happy with the young cats we have whose biggest flaw is simply that they’re still young.

[doclinkin]

Watch on YouTube

CJ’s package of runners and floaters in that 3’-10’+ range is exactly the skillset that both Bub and Tre need to add. Either can score if they can get to the rim. But what to do when the path is blocked is a problem. Bub won with the last shot of the season in exactly this sort of play. An undersized combo guard like CJ has had to figure this out to stay in the league. Riley too will benefit since he has the handle to get himself to open spaces but not the blow by speed to get ahead of the defense.

[leswizards]

leswizards, tanking means a lot of losing…and a roster with a lot of young players that need to be given time to develop. I think you need to come to grips with that.

This is not a question of winning or losing. It is a question of is this front office executing this tank wisely. I’m providing real world evidence to show that it is not. Some of you don’t want to read that, and instead rely on the hope that things are going well.

What’s the evidence? Beyond the flawed metric of Win Shares (in which the tail wags the dog since it only measures stats from games the team won) you present nothing much in support of your view. And plug your ears when analysis suggests anything in opposition.

You’ll rule out studies on young players development. Stat comparisons that show player equivalence by similar age. You suggest you don’t trust that analysis because we dont measure players who are not in the NBA.

I’ve shown stats from synergy showing that Bilal was good for a 10% reduction in all stars scoring efficiency when facing them. Crickets.

I’ve shown hustle stats from NBA.com that shows Kyshawn in the top 10 of defenders at challenging 3pt shots. Nothing.

Bilal rises from 52 invitees to earn a spot on the French NT. Plays in the critical 4th quarter if a game that took Stef’s ungodly performance to win. Bilal earns a starting spot in this years team. Plays well to win the game against Spain. Nothing.

I’ve cited video analysis that pointed to Coulibaly being the leagues quickest off the floor as a leaper. Hinting at his potential as the game slows down for him. That his upside is better than most. Yeah but Win Shares still: He’s not on a winning team thus must not be good.

And when it is pointed out by Nate that the team was dragged down by Kuzma, that statistically Bilal Et Al played better without that pant load dragging them down, you ignore it and suggest only KMidd gets any credit.

Any time a solid point is made you say “I don’t have time to answer that”. Then find time to answer the next few guys.

By all means I’d like to see the evidence. Saying Cam is equal to the guys we have therefore all are bad is not evidence. It’s a false equivalence. You didn’t even bother to compare their stats.

Show an analyst who backs your position that the Wizards have been drafting poorly and mismanaging their assets. Show who you would have picked. The strategy that would be smarter. The numbers that back it up. So far the evidence you show is: I don’t think so because I don’t think so. I’d love to see the data beyond: yeah but we’re losing. Okay. True. Now show why we can’t improve. Won’t get better. I dunno. Haven’t seen it. You haven’t shown it.

After all the smack you talked about how Bilal being on the euro basketball team shows how great Bilal is doing, I thought I would post that your hero (Kevin Broom) wrote “Bilal hit the #sowizards exacta. Coulibaly played poorly and sustained a torn ligament”.

[doclinkin]

After all the smack you talked about how Bilal being on the euro basketball team shows how great Bilal is doing, I thought I would post that your hero (Kevin Broom) wrote “Bilal hit the #sowizards exacta. Coulibaly played poorly and sustained a torn ligament”.

Did you watch the games? He was their defensive stopper. Most athletic player on the court every game. But was misused on offense as a stand in the corner and wait guy.

They fell apart when Sarr went down, but until then Sarr and Coulibaly played stifling defense on the opponents best guy every game. France alternated between them to keep a long defender on court the whole time. But catch and shoot 3’s are not his best game.

Times where they put the ball in his hands he played well. Too quick to stop. Good body control. Skilled handle.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

But yeah he got injured and wore down.

[leswizards]

After all the smack you talked about how Bilal being on the euro basketball team shows how great Bilal is doing, I thought I would post that your hero (Kevin Broom) wrote “Bilal hit the #sowizards exacta. Coulibaly played poorly and sustained a torn ligament”.

Did you watch the games? He was their defensive stopper. Most athletic player on the court every game. But was misused on offense as a stand in the corner and wait guy.

They fell apart when Sarr went down, but until then Sarr and Coulibaly played stifling defense on the opponents best guy every game. France alternated between them to keep a long defender on court the whole time. But catch and shoot 3’s are not his best game.

Games where they put the ball in his hands he played well.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

But yeah he got injured and wore down.

So you are perfectly comfortable quoting Kevin Broom to try and show that my views about Bilal are misplaced, but when he says Bilal played poorly, you just ignore it.

Got it!

[doclinkin]

Or: I disagreed with Kev who admits he analyzes stats but doesn’t watch many games. May not know why Bilal fell short. I can text him and ask but 100% chance he says he didn’t watch FIBA ball. Bilal played the last 2 games with torn ligaments in his thumb. Tough to play well that way.

I will say for anyone who did get the FIBA package this years Eurobasket has been worth the money. High level play. Really the best players in the world playing at a high level. Made the late August doldrums seriously fun.

Turkey v Germany figures to be epic. Sengun is playing at an all world level but Germany looks unbeatable. FIBA Schroeder is a different player.

[leswizards]

Or: I disagreed with Kev who admits he analyzes stats but doesn’t watch many games. May not know why Bilal fell short. I can text him and ask but 100% chance he says he didn’t watch FIBA ball. Bilal played the last 2 games with torn ligaments in his thumb. Tough to play well that way.

I will say for anyone who did get the FIBA package this years Eurobasket has been worth the money. High level play. Really the best players in the world playing at a high level. Made the late August doldrums seriously fun.

Turkey v Germany figures to be epic. Sengun is playing at an all world level but Germany looks unbeatable. FIBA Schroeder is a different player.

I don’t care whether he watched the games or not. I find it intellectually dishonest and annoying when you use him as some statistical genius whose views carry extra weight, but then ignore him when his views are contrary to your own.

[doclinkin]

So you are perfectly comfortable quoting Kevin Broom to try and show that my views about Bilal are misplaced, but when he says Bilal played poorly, you just ignore it.

Got it!

Funny that once again you lack any facts when presented with evidence though. Just pop in with an opinion then when it’s refuted disappear. I get it. You don’t like the guy. But not liking a player doesn’t substitute for analysis.

Bilal started for a France team that advanced to the elimination rounds on the strength of the defense of the two Wiz players that Dawkins recruited. (Plus the offense of Yabusele and Sylvain Francisco). Bilal started. Sarr backed him up. Both were outside inside defenders.

When the Wizkids went down with injury France was eliminated. Seems to me that speaks well for Dawkins talent assessment. Not the other way around. I expect if both were healthy that French team beats Georgia easily before they run into a buzz saw in the next round.

Togo Shengaila is a nice player though. He had a cuppa coffee in the NBA then went back to Europe. He’s since learned to hit the 3. Worth another look at this level.

[doclinkin]

I don’t care whether he watched the games or not. I find it intellectually dishonest and annoying when you use him as some statistical genius whose views carry extra weight, but then ignore him when his views are contrary to your own.

Okay but you don’t bother to refute his analysis with information of your own. Just get annoyed and double down on your opinion. I will commonly disagree with people I respect. Learn from them or argue with them and change their minds. That’s about as intellectually honest as you get. Give and take. Instead of stonewalling once you’ve made up your mind about a thing. Kev is bright. Sometimes he’s wrong. Me too. Show me where I’m wrong. Bring facts.

[leswizards]

So you are perfectly comfortable quoting Kevin Broom to try and show that my views about Bilal are misplaced, but when he says Bilal played poorly, you just ignore it.

Got it!

Funny that once again you lack any facts when presented with evidence though. Just pop in with an opinion then when it’s refuted disappear. I get it. You don’t like the guy. But not liking a player doesn’t substitute for analysis.

Bilal started for a France team that advanced to the elimination rounds on the strength of the defense of the two Wiz players that Dawkins recruited. (Plus the offense of Yabusele and Sylvain Francisco). Bilal started. Sarr backed him up. Both were outside inside defenders.

When the Wizkids went down with injury France was eliminated. Seems to me that speaks well for Dawkins talent assessment. Not the other way around. I expect if both were healthy that French team beats Georgia easily before they run into a buzz saw in the next round.

Togo Shengaila is a nice player though. He had a cuppa coffee in the NBA then went back to Europe. He’s since learned to hit the 3. Worth another look at this level.

It is a fact supported by numerous statistics that Bilal is one of the worst offensive players in the nba. There are also other advanced statistics which show his whole game is awful (but I don’t want to get into that debate). Instead, I will just leave it at he was a starter on a team that was routinely down by 20 points before the first quarter was over.

It is a fact that he is only 21. It is a fact that you et Al feel he should only be judged against other 21 year old nba players. It is a fact that you think he will improve greatly. To support this you cite Kevin Broom’s statistical analysis.

It is a fact that you ignore Kevin Broom when it is convenient to your argument.

[leswizards]

I’ve had enough of this.

Hopefully, I won’t be back for a year or so. At that point, if there is some reason for me to eat crow, I’ll do so.

However, the odds are all the first rounders of this front office will still be awful nba players.

[doclinkin]

It is a fact supported by numerous statistics that Bilal is one of the worst offensive players in the nba. There are also other advanced statistics which show his whole game is awful (but I don’t want to get into that debate). Instead, I will just leave it at he was a starter on a team that was routinely down by 20 points before the first quarter was over.

It is a fact that he is only 21. It is a fact that you et Al feel he should only be judged against other 21 year old nba players. It is a fact that you think he will improve greatly. To support this you cite Kevin Broom’s statistical analysis.

It is a fact that you ignore Kevin Broom when it is convenient to your argument.

Kevin Broom is not the argument. The argument is that young players improve. I’ve cited studies from the Sloan Sports conference at MIT that showed the younger a player shows sparks the higher their upside is. Those same studies convinced Kev to study it and use it as a tool to forecast future improvements and the general trend. The only part I take on faith is that I’m not checking his math. Or the numbers of those Sloan studies. It jibes with reality.

How you have dug in on the position that young players don’t get better is what’s baffling.

To stick with it you’ll grasp at absurdities like Kevs observation that Bilal didn’t play well, absent the context of a thumb injury that required surgery. And say: “see you disagree with him, therefore he’s never right!” Then go back to stuffing your fingers in your ears.

It’s goofy. The dedication to the hate is so stubborn it’s nearly admirable. Though now I expect it’s morphed from Bilal to anyone who provides facts in support of the kid.

[doclinkin]

However, the odds are all the first rounders of this front office will still be awful nba players.

Okay. We will pin this and check in in a year. Your assertion is:

Tre Johnson
Alex Sarr
Bilal
Bub Carrington
Cam Whitmore
Kyshawn George
Will Riley
AJ Johnson
Dillon Jones

will all be “awful nba players” a year from now. Cool. We will see.

So long as we aren’t using the metric of ‘win shares’ (in a tank year) I’m betting you’re wrong on several in that bunch.

[leswizards]

However, the odds are all the first rounders of this front office will still be awful nba players.

Okay. We will pin this and check in in a year. Your assertion is:

Tre Johnson
Alex Sarr
Bilal
Bub Carrington
Cam Whitmore
Kyshawn George
Will Riley
AJ Johnson
Dillon Jones

will all be “awful nba players” a year from now. Cool. We will see.

So long as we aren’t using the metric of ‘win shares’ (in a tank year) I’m betting you’re wrong on several in that bunch.

I was only referring to players chosen in the first round by this front office.

That does not include aj Johnson, cam Whitmore and Dillon Jones.

[doclinkin]

However, the odds are all the first rounders of this front office will still be awful nba players.

Okay. We will pin this and check in in a year. Your assertion is:

Tre Johnson
Alex Sarr
Bilal
Bub Carrington
Cam Whitmore
Kyshawn George
Will Riley
AJ Johnson
Dillon Jones

will all be “awful nba players” a year from now. Cool. We will see.

So long as we aren’t using the metric of ‘win shares’ (in a tank year) I’m betting you’re wrong on several in that bunch.

I was only referring to players chosen in the first round by this front office.

That does not include aj Johnson, cam Whitmore and Dillon Jones.

Those are 1st round players who this front office have recruited to this team. All still on rookie contracts.

Unless your contention is that the front office selectively sucks. Only sucks partway. Those first round players are now on the Wizards. So which is it? What’s your contention. Are they bad at being a front office or not. If you think those guys are going to be good then you have to think they have an Eye for talent. Even talent that another team has given up on.

[AFM]

No need to pull up stakes leswizards. This board is small enough as it is. Just remember that doc is a little "off", maybe not playing with a full deck of cards.

[leswizards]

Okay. We will pin this and check in in a year. Your assertion is:

Tre Johnson
Alex Sarr
Bilal
Bub Carrington
Cam Whitmore
Kyshawn George
Will Riley
AJ Johnson
Dillon Jones

will all be “awful nba players” a year from now. Cool. We will see.

So long as we aren’t using the metric of ‘win shares’ (in a tank year) I’m betting you’re wrong on several in that bunch.

I was only referring to players chosen in the first round by this front office.

That does not include aj Johnson, cam Whitmore and Dillon Jones.

Those are 1st round players who this front office have recruited to this team. All still on rookie contracts.

Unless your contention is that the front office selectively sucks. Only sucks partway. Those first round players are now on the Wizards. So which is it? What’s your contention.

The single most important part of a successful tank is drafting well (particularly in the first round and even more particularly in the lottery).

This front office has been awful at drafting. And, as long as they continue to blow draft pick after pick, the tank will be long and painful.

[doclinkin]

My deck is all jokers. And tarot cards.

[dckingsfan]

I was only referring to players chosen in the first round by this front office.

That does not include aj Johnson, cam Whitmore and Dillon Jones.

Those are 1st round players who this front office have recruited to this team. All still on rookie contracts.

Unless your contention is that the front office selectively sucks. Only sucks partway. Those first round players are now on the Wizards. So which is it? What’s your contention.

The single most important part of a successful tank is drafting well (particularly in the first round and even more particularly in the lottery).

This front office has been awful at drafting. And, as long as they continue to blow draft pick after pick, the tank will be long and painful.

This may be true but...

As you point out they were able to acquire Johnson, Whitmore and Branham. So, really it is about acquiring young players and developing them (regardless of how you do it). Then (because of the new draft lottery) get decent and hit the lottery.

Once that happens you can see if you can then recruit a player or two through free agency. There was no chance of that in the past but Winger/Dawkins are well regarded so...

If drafting is 1, not giving out bad contracts would be 1A in the rebuild. We will have to see how the FO plays this as the rookie contracts expire. I thought they did an awesome job on the Deni contract, the Kispert contract still puzzles me greatly and the Kuzma contract was not so good. So,

As for the draft, I think we are still in small sample size territory. What he has done is gone full throated rebuild. This is incredibly refreshing and very necessary.

Also, there is a bit of luck & here moving forward as Bilal, Johnson, Vuk, Sarr, Bub, George, AJ, Riley & Whitmore develop. Given that many youngsters, only one needs to turn out to be a #2 and one a #3 option on offense. And one a defensive stopper.

We will just have to let it play out to see how it develops. But that is nine chances for a breakout. Not horrible at all.