Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #5-#6 Spots

[DraymondGold]

Voting Post
There's a clear top 6 to me, so we're down to the last two of Tier 1...

1. 2004 Kevin Garnett
2. 2001 Shaquille O'Neal

… for reasons largely described in this previous post: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=119559684#p119559684 . KG's an all-time defender and great supportive offensive player. Shaq's an all-time dominant offensive engine in the playoffs. There’s legitimate arguments for both, and who you pick largely comes down to what you value re: offense vs defense, regular vs post season, offensive 1a vs offensive 1b (and how you handle the project’s time frame). I would take 2000 Shaq higher, but am considering him outside the scope of this era at least for now.

After Shaq and KG (who I expect to get in in this round), we get to the next tier. Here are some of the likely candidates, ordered chronologically:
-Wade, Kobe, Dirk, Chris Paul, Durant, Kawhi, Giannis (all of these players except Dirk/Paul were listed in the last thread, and Dirk's starting to get mentioned in this thread)

There's a few more candidates who may sneak into the conversation, depending on what people value (Nash, Harden, Shai), although I expect a few others to go before they really get steam. For Nash, people presumably have concerns about the defense. For Harden, presumably it's scalability/resilience. For Shai, presumably it's sample size / resilience. Shai's regular season suggests he may be truly special, and a similar regular,ar season with a slightly better playoffs next year (with a bit more experience to help empower that) might have us retroactively raising 2025 Shai. At the same time, plenty of people have had great single regular seasons without ever sustaining longer runs, while others never put together a dominant playoff run. When evaluating players, I'd rather underestimate them to start and wait for the larger sample, than preemptively reward them for what ends up being something unsustainable/noisy.

To get a rough estimate of value, let's look at EPM (looking at volume rather than rate using their volume stat, Estimated Wins). I’ve also looked at nbaRAPM across a range of sample sizes, AuPM, On/off, and a little WOWY — there’s broad trends for some of these guys, and some disagreement. As we get further down the list, the players get closer together, so the error bars will eventually make it hard for any player to clearly stand out. I do still think there’s some trends in the impact data though. Let’s focus on EPM, since it’s measured to be the most accurate stat in the modern era, although other stats show somewhat similar trends.

3-year RS Average EPM Estimated Wins:
13-15 Paul +17.9 [08-10 Paul +18.6]
06-08 Kobe +17.7 [07-09 +16.9]
15-17 Kawhi +16
06-09 Wade +15.7 (skipping 08 as it’s an injury year)
16-18 Durant +15.2 [14-16 +15.8]
19-21 Giannis +14 [15.2 in 82-game pace]
06-08 Nash +14.8
10-12 Dirk +13.3 [05-07 +19]

3-year PS Average EPM per Game:
16-19 Kawhi 7.3 (6.6 accounting for missed games)
14-16 Paul +5.9 (5.2 accounting for missed games)
16-18 Durant +4.8 (4.6 accounting for missed games)
= 09-12 Dirk +4.8
~= 08-10 Kobe 4.7
= 19-21 Giannis 4.7 (4.4 accounting for missed games)
05-07 Nash +2.8
05-07 Wade 2.4
[I don't have access to playoff Estimated Wins, so have averaged and converted to per game to get a volume stat for the playoffs]

So looking at each Player’s impact rankings: In EPM (and across other impact metrics like multi-year nbaRAPM), Chris Paul seems like the clear most valuable player in the regular season, and longer samples seem to favor Clippers Chris Paul specifically. Paul is still among the more impactful in the playoffs when playing, but some players are comparable. Paul also gets injured in numerous playoffs, and people may have varying scalability/resilience concerns.

Kawhi seems like the most impactful playoff player during his peak (noting that small playoff samples have more noise), although like Paul he suffers from untimely playoff injuries. His regular season is still impactful, among the top few.

Kobe surprisingly has the 2nd most Estimated Wins in the regular season and is right in the middle of this group in the playoffs, despite his reputation by for being relatively poorer in impact metrics. Looking at EPM per 100, Kobe’s closer to last. Turns out Kobe has quite the season volume advantage over the competition — he plays 82 games in both 08/09, averaged 79 games played across 06-10, and did so at 39 minutes per game (helped by a slightly slower pace). So a lesser per possession impact is partially compensated by playing more possessions per game and particularly being more durable each season. That health also shows up in the playoffs, where Paul and Kawhi and others struggle.

Wade looks better than Kobe per possession, but worse than Kobe per season (as above, Wade‘s impact advantage in rate stats are less than Kobe’s durability/volume advantage) and Wade looks last in multi-year playoff runs. Now Wade has the 2nd best playoff run of these players in 06 behind 17 Kawhi, but he also looks much worse in other (albeit quite small and occasionally injured) samples. In multi-year runs this pulls him down. Wade has a steeper decline outside short sample peaks. This is presumably partially driven by injuries, but also raises a concern that his best playoff runs in 06/09 are boosted a touch by small sample noise, or whether he could scale his impact with more talented teammates.

Durant isn’t the most impactful, but it also seems like Durant > Dirk and Giannis in this stat. Arguments to take him higher would probably focus on scalability — he had great playoff impact on arguably the best team ever. Arguments against him would say the situation was easier as teams focused on Curry, and that Durant didn’t show as much resilience in other scenarios. Durant seems more durable than Paul, Kawhi, Wade, or Giannis (he doesn’t seem to wear down under long playoff runs or over successive years), but still has more durability compared to Dirk and Kobe.

Giannis has less impact than one would expect given his reputation. He is partially held back but having his playoff peak and regular season peak in different years (which does not seem to be caused by injury or dramatic teammate changes like Curry, and regardless Giannis doesn’t have quite as much of an impact advantage relative to the completion like Curry). I also have resilience and scalability concerns with him, for reasons I described in an earlier post.

Dirk is also held back by having a regular season and playoff peak in different years. His run in 05-07 would be the best regular season run of anyone here, but if we force the run to include 2011, he’s last in the regular season. This seems like a classic case of player evolution (I would argue like Giannis). When a player is younger, they have more athletic stanina and motor to try in the regular season. As they get older, they develop more counters and gain more experience, and thus get more resilient in the playoffs, at the cost of regular season effort. Different players peak at different points in these arcs, and this development can make it interesting to choose a single stretch as their peak. I agree with the data that Dirk was more impactful in the regular season while he was younger, and better in the playoffs as he was older. I think this evolution to maintain impact over the years helps give him one of the better primes of this group, and gives him one of the better careers, but I do think it holds him back a bit with his peak.

One theme when comparing this tier: most player has great impact in some sample/stat, but are inconsistent in other scenarios.
-Health: Paul, Kawhi, Wade, Giannis, and Durant all have injuries to differing extents. Wade has general durability issues throughout his prime. Paul, older Kawhi (starting in late 2017), and Giannis seem to wear down over longer playoff runs. Durant doesn’t wear down during his peak, but is still somewhat susceptible to month-scale injuries.
-Stamina/motor: Kawhi, Giannis, and Dirk seem to have their regular season and playoff peak in different seasons, in part due to stamina/motor. One of my bigger issues for Kawhi is his lack of stamina; his best regular season is 2016, while his best playoffs ignoring injury is probably 2017. I do think there’s an offensive development and shift from speed to strength that helps unlock the playoff impact in 2017, but I also think a lack of motor means he can’t combine his defensive and offensive peak at once, and I do think some coasting is required for the playoff rise. Giannis lost some of his athletic motor of 2019/2020 as he developed the experience and counters that helped his 21/22 runs. Dirk had a similar development to Giannis, albeit with a larger separation between his regular season and playoff peak.
Kobe doesn’t have as many health issues, or have as much of a separated regular season and playoff peak due to motor/development. However, I do still see a lack of motor limiting his regular season defense given the offensive load and the lack of coasting/load management. It would have been interesting to see if a more load managed Kobe had more in the tank defensively, or looked better per possession.

I think my top group will be Chris Paul, Kawhi, Durant, and Kobe. They’re roughly the most impactful according to EPM (again with Kobe making up a per possession disadvantage with more minutes/games played). I like much of this group from a scalability / team building perspective compared to say Wade or Giannis or Dirk. Wade’s lack of shooting and ball dominance makes it hard to maximize offensive impact with another ball dominant star. Giannis’ insistence to play on-ball rather than focus on more traditional big skills (screens, rolls, lobs, midrange counters) has made his chemistry with Lillard a bit disappointing. Dirk is pretty great offensively, but is a bit limiting to a team defensively given his lack of impact at his position. Team-wise, Kawhi, Durant, and Kobe all were key players on teams that were clearly more impactful, which supports the idea that their more scalable playstyle can lead to more dominant top-end teams.

3. 2017 Kawhi Leonard
Of these four guys, I could be swayed multiple ways. At the moment, I’m leaning 17 Kawhi. I do think Kawhi still has motor issues limiting how well he could combine his peak offense/defense and regular/post season, and I do think he was already showing some durability concerns (he had already missed 2nd round games before going down to Zaza). But I don’t think he was as injury-prone or load-management-reliant as he would become, and from a probabilistic perspective, he was just as likely to make it through in a 2019-style run in 2017 as he was going down to the ankle injury.

And when he wasn’t injured, he might be the best playoff player of the bunch, and the impact data seems to support that. An all-time playoff scoring threat, with shooting that could be catch and shoot off-ball, fantastic resilient midrange that could come in isolation and off the dribble, and some basket pressure. This three-level diverse scoring package, combined with active off-ball action and a robust handle, drove some incredible playoff offenses. His lack of playmaking and lesser activity off-ball meant he wasn’t quite the offensive player of KD or Paul or Kobe. But he was still highly impactful, and could fit well alongside other ball-dominant playmakers. And he was the best of the bunch defensively. Not quite 2016 or 2014 levels, with the heavier build and offensive load, but still a clear positive with his hands in isolation and in passing lanes, and with solid rebounding.

It’s a tough choice, and I could definitely be swayed otherwise. The treatment of the injury seems like the key question here — by some criteria, the injury would discount this year altogether. One could also argue that the regular season specifically had too little impact to be chosen here (the +1.6 on/off is pretty pathetic, even with bad shooting luck; although his 3-year on/off is +6 with an on rating of +11.5, which is more respectful, and his Goldstein RAPM is 5th in the league that season which isn’t bad). One could argue that Kawhi’s defense had fallen off by 2017, or that his lack of motor/IQ/playmaking justify picking someone else. But even so, he seems like the most valuable playoff performer when healthy, which I find compelling.

4. 2015 Chris Paul (> 2014 Chris Paul)
His regular season impact metrics are the clear best of this group. He’s one of the best playmakers and passers ever — with a massive advantage in playmaking over Wade, Kobe, Dirk, Durant, Kawhi, and Giannis. Then we add that Paul had strong playoff scoring (22 Pts/75 at +6 rTS% in 2014; +23 Pts/75 at +10 rTS% in 2015), with near all-time midrange and positive 3 point spacing, and give him the best IQ of this group, and Paul looks to be contending for the best offensive player here ( I’d hear arguments for Kobe/Dirk/Durant too). Then add in that Paul is more consistent in his defensive value than Kobe and Durant, and it becomes clear why he seems like the most impactful player of the bunch.

I do think he doesn’t level up his game as much as other players here in the playoffs, but it’s the absolute value (not the relative change) that’s important. He starts at a higher place in the regular season than anyone here, so take a little off the top from him or give a little on the top to someone else… and Paul’s still up there competing to be the most impactful.

I have health concerns for him, like Kawhi. For greatest peaks, I’m most interested in figuring out which player was the best at their best, which gives some reasoning to down weighting peaks (especially ones from unlikely/freak accidents). At the same time, if players show consistent injury concerns in the playoffs e.g. from wearing down under the strain, then that is a concern. With Paul, he was reasonably healthy in the 2014 playoffs and performed great (Thinking Basketball’s recent podcast talked about his impressive defense on both Curry and Durant). In 2015, I think he was a little better overall. Although he did go down in the playoffs, he also played 82 games, which is unusual for a lot of these guys — a bit more load management from a bit more forward-looking coach than Doc Rivers might have helped him remain healthy for a full playoff run.

HM: 2008 and 2009 Kobe, 2016 and 2017 Durant.
Open to arguments for both players and somewhat to others as well.

[eminence]

1. 2001 Shaquille O'Neal
There's a lot of evidence from this and surrounding seasons for Shaq being a strong MVP level guy, but the reason he's getting my vote and ranks in my top 5 for the era is due to the dominant PO run. In order, +16.1 vs a +4.7 team (+20.8), +9.6 vs a +6.0 team (+15.6), +24.6 vs a +8.6 team (+33.2), +7.4 vs a +4.7 team (+12.1). Absolute domination, with the win over the Spurs being the most impressive series in NBA history imo. No, I do not care that the on/off for the star playing 42+ mpg on (arguably) the best PO team ever was poor over a 16 game sample. If you can give me +14 (unadjusted for competition) for 42+ mpg I'm pretty sure we can figure out ways to win those games.

Elite play finisher/post player/foul drawer/interior gravity on offense. Adding up to be clearly the best on the block big ever. Strong on the glass and a very intimidating post presence on defense as well. Had weaknesses, but nobody could exploit them this time around.

2. 2004 Kevin Garnett
The broadest range of skills ever imo, and the Wolves needed it. In the only season he kinda sort of had support it's headlined by Sam Cassell. A quality starting PG with 0 career accolades until age 34 when he paired with KG in Minnesota. That team being the #6 defense was a minor miracle - absolutely an atrocious defensive cast around KG where his unparalleled horizontal defense filled in gaps all over the court. When Cassell went down in the POs it was KG who stepped up and ran the offense (split with Sprewell). Crazy breadth of skills, beautiful on film. Shows up as arguably the GOAT in short/mid term impact metrics. Wasn't higher than 5th on my list due to the lack of PO proof of concept. Unfortunate for KG as I certainly feel it was more of a lack in opportunity than a lack in skill.

3. 2009 Kobe Bryant
I don't really have a preference between this season and '08. Generally see him as a tier down from the top ~6 guys but am happy enough to have Kobe lead off my 2nd tier at #7 (a bit unsure of what tier to put Jokic tier 1 or 2). Led a great team to a great result (underwhelming against Houston but not enough to bring them down). A case for the broadest range of offensive skills/impact ever. Fine on defense when he wanted to be. Waxed a Magic squad that had just taken down arguably peak LeBron (still a bit of a bummer we didn't get a Kobe vs Bron Finals, would've been hype).

Demonstrated great fit with different talents, and I think there's a case that his legendary dedication helped drive periphery talent when on great teams (and may have hurt when on not so great teams). My favorite offensive player to watch pre-Steph.

I can see a case for a lot of other guys here in this and the 4th spot, Kobe is not particularly impressive in the mid-term APM variants I usually champion.

4. 2006 Dwyane Wade
SGAs RS vs Wades PO. I'm going with Wades POs, but can certainly see going the other way. The Finals are often the series that's really remembered, but the ECF against the PIstons was almost equally impressive imo. 64 win squad coming off back to back finals appearances anchored by the Walli and Wade went out and got it done.

[Cavsfansince84]

One name I haven't seen mentioned yet that I'm sort of surprised by is Nash. Given that I think he's almost in that group that is getting consideration now along with guys like CP3 who don't have a title to attach to a peak either. Just throwing it out there for a little discussion perhaps in the next thread.

[iggymcfrack]

1. 2004 Kevin Garnett
All-time impact season by multiple systems. Box stats dipped a bit in the postseason, but he still had an on/off over +20 and did everything you could want from a team perspective, going toe to toe with the Lakers until Sam Cassell got hurt.

2. 2025 Shai Gilgeous Alexander
Better EPM than anyone ever except for LeBron or Jokic. Led the best regular season team of all-time with a constantly changing supporting cast. Did dip some in the playoffs, but not enough to be significantly behind the players behind him.

3. 2002 Shaquille O’Neal
This is a lot more individually impressive playoff run than 2001 when they had the memorable team dominance largely on the basis of Kobe having his best playoffs over their time together.

4. 2021 Giannis Antetokounmpo
Originally had this season higher above Shaq and SGA, but the playoff numbers as a whole are worse than I remembered, and also in a close race, he has to be dinged for missing Games 5 and 6 of the Eastern conference finals. If the Bucks hadn’t been lucky to be facing a weaker opponent, the injury could have knocked them out as his injuries did in 2020 and 2022.

[70sFan]

3. 2002 Shaquille O’Neal
This is a lot more individually impressive playoff run than 2001 when they had the memorable team dominance largely on the basis of Kobe having his best playoffs over their time together.

What's the basis of the bolded?

1. 2002 has easily the worst individual series (2002 vs Spurs).
2. 2002 has the worst defensive series (2002 vs Kings).
3. 2001 has the best individual series (2001 vs Sixers).
4. 2001 has the best team performance in which Shaq played extremely well against GOAT-level interior defense (2001 vs Spurs).
5. The only thing I can think of that supports 2002 over 2001 is basketball-reference BPM and it's useless considering it believes Shaq was better defensively in 2002 than in 2001.

[iggymcfrack]

3. 2002 Shaquille O’Neal
This is a lot more individually impressive playoff run than 2001 when they had the memorable team dominance largely on the basis of Kobe having his best playoffs over their time together.

What's the basis of the bolded?

1. 2002 has easily the worst individual series (2002 vs Spurs).
2. 2002 has the worst defensive series (2002 vs Kings).
3. 2001 has the best individual series (2001 vs Sixers).
4. 2001 has the best team performance in which Shaq played extremely well against GOAT-level interior defense (2001 vs Spurs).
5. The only thing I can think of that supports 2002 over 2001 is basketball-reference BPM and it's useless considering it believes Shaq was better defensively in 2002 than in 2001.

What makes Shaq’s Finals in 2001 better than his Finals in 2002?

33/16/5/0/3 on .575 TS% for a 27.4 Game Score vs. Philly

36/12/4/1/3 on .636 for a 30.1 Game Score vs. New Jersey

As for why I picked Shaq in 2002, in addition to the higher BPM, he also has an on/off of +22.9 in the 2002 playoffs compared to -0.3 in 2001.

If you think Shaq has significantly better defense in 2001 than 2002, that’s a totally valid reason to vote for that year, but personally I thought the big drop off defensively was from 2000 to 2001 and I didn’t see a significant difference between the 2001 and 2002 seasons on that end.

[70sFan]

What makes Shaq’s Finals in 2001 better than his Finals in 2002?

33/16/5/0/3 on .575 TS% for a 27.4 Game Score vs. Philly

36/12/4/1/3 on .636 for a 30.1 Game Score vs. New Jersey

Opponent context. The Sixers had slightly better RS and faced slightly better competition in the playoffs than the Nets, but more importantly - the Sixers were build reasonably well to slow down Shaq, while the Nets were very bad at that.

As for why I picked Shaq in 2002, in addition to the higher BPM, he also has an on/off of +22.9 in the 2002 playoffs compared to -0.3 in 2001.

Why does it matter? The Lakers were +13.4 with Shaq on the court in 2001 compared to "only" +7.5 in 2002. So your argumentation is based on 98 minutes OFF sample in which the Lakers had hot shooting luck?

Shaq anchored significantly better team in 2001. I don't understand why you care about ON/OFF in such situation, because we all know that the Lakers wouldn't have been +14 without Shaq throughout the playoffs, it's just a noise.

If you think Shaq has significantly better defense in 2001 than 2002, that’s a totally valid reason to vote for that year, but personally I thought the big drop off defensively was from 2000 to 2001 and I didn’t see a significant difference between the 2001 and 2002 seasons on that end.

Don't you see the difference in how he moved in 2001 playoffs vs 2002 playoffs? Shaq was quite banged up in 2002, he looked very bad against the Spurs and he still didn't move well against the Kings. In comparison, Shaq played way better against the Spurs in 2001 and the Spurs had a much better roster in 2001.

I think your whole argument comes down to Kobe playing worse in 2002 than 2001, but that definitely doesn't make Shaq better.

[Jaivl]

5. Kevin Garnett (2004) > 03 > 08 > 05
6. Shaquille O'Neal (2001) > 02 > 03
The two left from the previous thread.

7. Giannis Antetokounmpo (2025) > 22 > 21 > 20
For me he's still the best player in the world not named Nikola Jokic. Milwaukee sucks right now (starring Kyle Kuzma as Ricky Davis 2.0, Lillard is a lie, Lopez is old, the rest is blergh) and they managed to win the Cup and appear decent at times.

Can't find a reason why he should not be at least close to Shaq. Equal scorer at their A-game, in terms of efficiency and unstoppability. More versatile ballhandler and passer (effectiveness be damned). He's still the best finisher alive, but he finally has some plan Bs scoring-wise: gave up on the 3s and gained some semblance of a post game and a surprisingly decent midrange shot. Defense is worse than other years, he's less nimble, but still very good at the rim (-7.4% on defended attempts), which is around where peak Shaq was.

8. Dwyane Wade (2010) > 09 > 06
2004 Kevin Garnett but smaller. Everything that has been said for his 2006 version in this thread, but a tiny bit better (adds a bit of shooting, peaks at rim protection), and playing with a bunch of scrubs instead of a semi-decent team. His 2010 effort against the Celtics is probably the best playoff series by a not yet voted candidate.