Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s Contract Status (Update: Blue Jays sign Vlad to 14-year, $500 million deal)

[JaysRule15]

He basically got everything he wanted in this deal. Most of the money in signing bonuses. Full no-trade. There was no hometown discount here. He got more than market value. No other team was giving him $500 million this offseason. I just hope put up some decent seasons back to back and end this trend of a good year followed by some down years.

This happens when you have all the leverage in the world.

FO already admitted they went over what they were comfortable with on the initial offer and then they went even further to get the deal done, so much for staying disciplined.

I'm not seeing where this leverage was at all. He's the guy who had to prove he could repeat an elite season and the Jays certainly did not have to give him this ridiculous deal before he did (they also had no interest in doing so only a month ago). The far better baseball move would have been to trade him this year and then try to sign him in the offseason for less.

My guess is Ed Rogers effectively stepped in and got the deal done himself.

I think a weak FA class this offseason compared with the frenzy last year probably led to fears that some team was going to jump in and offer a crazy amount for Vlad. Especially if he was able to come close to what he did last season. There's also this belief that the previous offseason with Soto raised the floor and ceiling for young talent hitting free agency. Not to mention with the CBA coming up for renewal, maybe some big market teams are fearing additional penalties for these mega deals, so they would rush to do those deals this year and offseason before the rules might change. So he had some leverage, but I don't think it was enough to pressure a deal of this magnitude. At most, I think he would've gotten $450 in free agency. Most likely closer to $400 million.

[PushDaRock]

He basically got everything he wanted in this deal. Most of the money in signing bonuses. Full no-trade. There was no hometown discount here. He got more than market value. No other team was giving him $500 million this offseason. I just hope put up some decent seasons back to back and end this trend of a good year followed by some down years.

I saw no reason why this organization could not wait until next off-season to get a deal done with Vlad. If Vlad had a 2025 that was similar to 2023, he would have been lucky to get the original reported 10 year 340 million offer the Jays made to him last off-season. No team in free agency would have handed him close to the 500 million over 14 years he signed for.

It was no hometown discount, and more than market value for a guy coming off one very good year after two underwhelming contracts. I am now more inclined to believe maybe Ed Rogers is the one who stepped in and told Shapiro/Atkins to give Vlad what he wanted. Maybe Rogers was so desperate for good publicity that they foolishly made this move, thinking it would help with the ticket sales and end the bad press to lock up Vlad for 14 years.

This is 100% what happened. Ross said in ST when the first deadline to sign Vlad had passed, that they had made him a very competitive offer already that would've made him one of the highest paid players in the game. Clearly they had a valuation at that time they didn't want to jump past. I believe that amount was likely around $400 million, which still would've been significant but at least more closer to market. But I think once that negotiation broke down and Vlad started doing the rounds in the media about talking to all the teams and even being open to the Yankees, Ed Rogers got spooked and decided to throw more money at it.

If he repeated last year, I think 500m as a minimum is a pretty safe bet. An MVP level season and he would definitely be over 600m. If he ends up going back to a .800 ops hitter, he's probably still getting at least 300m with opt outs, something likely around 35m+ AAV on shorter term that he can get out of to still parlay for a bigger payday

[PushDaRock]

He basically got everything he wanted in this deal. Most of the money in signing bonuses. Full no-trade. There was no hometown discount here. He got more than market value. No other team was giving him $500 million this offseason. I just hope put up some decent seasons back to back and end this trend of a good year followed by some down years.

This happens when you have all the leverage in the world.

FO already admitted they went over what they were comfortable with on the initial offer and then they went even further to get the deal done, so much for staying disciplined.

I'm not seeing where this leverage was at all. He's the guy who had to prove he could repeat an elite season and the Jays certainly did not have to give him this ridiculous deal before he did (they also had no interest in doing so only a month ago). The far better baseball move would have been to trade him this year and then try to sign him in the offseason for less.

My guess is Ed Rogers effectively stepped in and got the deal done himself.

The leverage was FA and leaving the Jays with nothing, seemed like it worked to me.

[Cyrus]

On the plus side, they probably have zero dollars to offer varsho an extension. No need to give him that miles straw contract or more, and then hoping 2 or 3 years down the line we can trade him with some international money to some sucker

[JaysRule15]

Vlad contract extension press conference today at 1pm.

[Boogie!]

He speaks English!

[JaysRule15]

He speaks English!

He's had for a while. He only stopped talking in English to the media because Arash Madani twisted what he said a few years in an interview.

[Boogie!]

He speaks English!

He's had for a while. He only stopped talking in English to the media because Arash Madani twisted what he said a few years in an interview.

What was said

[JaysRule15]

He speaks English!

He's had for a while. He only stopped talking in English to the media because Arash Madani twisted what he said a few years in an interview.

What was said

Vladdy Jr: "I understand English and I speak it, but not how I speak Spanish. I prefer to give interviews in Spanish because on one occasion I said that I did not do a gym in the offseason and the information that came out in the media was that I said I had never done a gym".

[Morris_Shatford]

Upside;
Its not 10/500

[Kingsway_fan]

Bust...

[Vampirate]

Wells was actually really good at the time he signed that deal and consistently so in the 3-4 years before that. Vlad isn’t even close to the player Wells was.

This will destroy the franchise.

Do I think Vladdy jr is worth the contract he got, no, but he has a chance to live up to most of it.

Vernon is incredibly overrated (mostly as a hitter) he had a piss poor OBP, his highest was .359, Vladdy Jr lowest is .329.

There is a good sign to Vladdy this season, his power numbers are down but his walk to strike out ratio is excellent at basically a 1/1.

If anything Vladdy should age better than vernon, though the back end of his contract is gonna suck.

[Parataxis]

Wells was actually really good at the time he signed that deal and consistently so in the 3-4 years before that. Vlad isn’t even close to the player Wells was.

This will destroy the franchise.

Do I think Vladdy jr is worth the contract he got, no, but he has a chance to live up to most of it.

Vernon is incredibly overrated (mostly as a hitter) he had a piss poor OBP, his highest was .359, Vladdy Jr lowest is .329.

There is a good sign to Vladdy this season, his power numbers are down but his walk to strike out ratio is excellent at basically a 1/1.

If anything Vladdy should age better than vernon, though the back end of his contract is gonna suck.

Eh, the back end of that contract is so far away, that I'm absolutely not convinced it will suck (it might though, too far away to tell). Eg in 2011 Wells was making an outrageous salary. Today, it's barely above the QO threshold.

[Vampirate]

I think 2023 just really really skewed everyone's (including mine) pessimism towards the guy.

(not talking about his contract, more about just the perception of Vladdy himself)

Having a WAR of:

2.1
0.4 - (shortened season)
6.8
4.0
2.0 - 2023
6,
5.1 (currently)

looks dramatically different than:

2.1
0.4 - (shortened season)
6.8
4.0
6,
5.1 (currently)

[Tripod]

Hitting. 500 in September so far when they really need it in nice. More power would be nice, but if that type of average continues, who cares.

[Vampirate]

Hitting. 500 in September so far when they really need it in nice. More power would be nice, but if that type of average continues, who cares.

By the looks of things his defense has improved a ton. Last year at the plate was even better and he's putting up close to similar WAR, though I doubt he'll hit 6 WAR this season.

I'm not going to bet on it, but if things line up correctly we could be looking him putting up a 8-9 WAR season in the future. (2021 RAW power with 2025 improved patience at the plate, higher rate of doubles and improved fielding)

This is fun to look at, and in no way am I expecting his bat to get to this level but....

Miguel Cabrera 1B, Age 26 same exact amount of seasons as Vlad jr played till this point = 26.1 WAR at age 26

Vlad Jr 1B, Age 26, same exact amount of seasons as Miggy played till this point = 26.4 WAR at age 26

It's very hard to see Vlad jr put up one of those insane slash lines Miggy produced in his peak but who really knows.


Miggy of course went on to become a HOFer, Detroit legend and winning a triple crown close after his age 26 season, Vlad jr can either go down as a foot note, an afterthought, or being thought of as the greatest Blue Jay ever, being thought of in the likes of ,well, Miggy himself.

[DelAbbot]

Wells was actually really good at the time he signed that deal and consistently so in the 3-4 years before that. Vlad isn’t even close to the player Wells was.

This will destroy the franchise.

Do I think Vladdy jr is worth the contract he got, no, but he has a chance to live up to most of it.

Vernon is incredibly overrated (mostly as a hitter) he had a piss poor OBP, his highest was .359, Vladdy Jr lowest is .329.

There is a good sign to Vladdy this season, his power numbers are down but his walk to strike out ratio is excellent at basically a 1/1.

If anything Vladdy should age better than vernon, though the back end of his contract is gonna suck.

I certainly hoope Vladdy stays in shape after securing his massive bag.

Otherwise his body type doesn't age well past 33

[Vampirate]

Wells was actually really good at the time he signed that deal and consistently so in the 3-4 years before that. Vlad isn’t even close to the player Wells was.

This will destroy the franchise.

Do I think Vladdy jr is worth the contract he got, no, but he has a chance to live up to most of it.

Vernon is incredibly overrated (mostly as a hitter) he had a piss poor OBP, his highest was .359, Vladdy Jr lowest is .329.

There is a good sign to Vladdy this season, his power numbers are down but his walk to strike out ratio is excellent at basically a 1/1.

If anything Vladdy should age better than vernon, though the back end of his contract is gonna suck.

I certainly hoope Vladdy stays in shape after securing his massive bag.

Otherwise his body type doesn't age well past 33

We're 7 seasons removed from that, either at that point he's a reincarnation of Miggy 2.0 or he's Prince Fielder 2.0 if you get what I mean.


Speaking of Price Fielder, i'm honestly kind of shocked at how much better Vlad jr has been over him.

Price hit 50 Hrs one season and 46 Hrs soon after, Vlad jr has done 48 hr once and never came close since. Miggy, you know the guy that won the triple crown and is destined for the HoF, his career high for hr was 44, (at age 29 and 30)

7 Seasons Prince had a 16.7 WAR at age 27 = Total career WAR 23.6 (even if Prince played 20 seasons, he'd never touch the HoF, even though earlier on you'd think he would have because he seemed larger than life as he had the bat average and patience too to go along with his power)

7 Seasons Vlad has a career thus far at age 26 = career War of 26.4 (Vlad jr's future trajectory has yet to be determined)


He needs to avoid multiple negative 1 WAR and over seasons late into his career

[raptorforlife88]

I can't imagine it's even possible for Vlad to live up to his contract. It's really more important that he have many productive seasons, and not age too poorly later on during it.

Things that look positive on that front are how ridiculous Vlad's hitting statcast page is this year. Every aspect of it is basically deep red. He does everything right as a hitter basically. He's been slightly unlucky which has kept his numbers down a little bit this year (and also the poor stretch right after he got hurt).

That his defense has improved this year, which has lifted his floor even though he hasn't been as good offensively. He's been around average among 1B this year. He's also slightly improved his baserunning although he still sucks at that.

Even though he still does suck as a baserunner, his sprint speed is very reasonable for his size/position. Among 1B he's basically has above average sprint speed, and if you look at the guys ahead of him on the statcast site at 1B, half of them are guys like Kody Clemens or Romy Gonzalez who split time at 1B with other positions like OF or 2B.

I feel like given his hitting approach, his better defense, and that he clearly consistently works hard enough on his body to stay in decent shape, he'll maintain a decent floor of performance for a while.