RGM Top 25 NBA Player Poll 2025-26 -- Round 21!

[cupcakesnake]

Spoiler:

I don't care about on/off numbers; I think it is a garbage stat.

Gobert was fine in 23-24, although again his production dropped off relative to the regular season (14-13 2 blocks 66fg% v 12-10 1 block and 61 fg%) but Gobert was atrocious in the playoffs last year, performing significantly below his regular season output which was his worst season in ~8 years or so. He was insignificant against the Lakers, outside of 1 game. He only played >30min in 2 of 15 games in the playoffs. He just wasn't very consequential to Minnesota's playoff run.

Minnesota got better production from Edwards, Randle, and McDaniels, who all elevated their game relative to their regular season output. And clearly the coaches were happy to have Gobert sit in favor of Reid (Gobert played 34mpg in the 23-24 playoffs versus 27 last year).

On/off shows that his team did better by at least 10 points per 100 possessions when he played as opposed to when he didn’t.

And his stats against the Lakers speak for themselves:

Rudy Gobert's defense through the 5 game series against the Lakers (per NBA.com head-to-head stats): total DFG% against Gobert 35.8%.

Look at players FG% against him in their most recent playoffs matchup:

Durant: 40%
Booker: 35.3%
Kyrie: 28.6%
SGA: 37.5%
Austin Reaves: 33.3%
Lebron: 25%
Luka: 42.2%

And yet, the Minny coaching staff decided to play Gobert about half the game v 35-40m.

Gobert can have played good defense while having a bad playoffs. He was useless on offense and his output relative to his own lowered standards was dismal in pretty much every area.

You're free to obviate the wide-ranging metrics that show how ineffective he was overall and focus on some really specific stat.

There are plenty of negative things one can say about Gobert in the playoffs, and sometimes by the eye test he looked bad. I don't disagree with any of that. On the flip side, he played some absolutely dominant defense, and his offensive struggles could be blamed on Minnesota's playmakers, who shied away from interior passing in general.

My main concern with Gobert is the decline of his rebounding. There's been a definite drop off there statistically, and I think it's the biggest sign of him moving with less strength and balance as he gets deeper into his 30s. His rebounding is still good, but he used to be one of the best in the league. Now he looks creaky on box outs.

You like to say "plus minus is a garbage stat" a lot, but at some point, you'll probably have to defend that position. I dont view +/- based arguments as definite or any sort of checkmate, but they're useful data in terms of understanding how a team is performing when a player in on the floor, in the most basic way. I can say "PPG is a garbage stat" but if I never make a case why, it just sounds like I'm dodging a part of an argument that isn't in my favor. +/- can be noisy and misleading, but throwing it out entirely is silliness.

In general, Minnesota dominated opposition when we had Jaden and/or Gobert on the floor. Despite Finch getting nervous about offense, and picking Randle/Naz lineups, those didn't work out. So you can point to Finch's wisdom on this and trust it, but it's important to note that he ended up being wrong that. The offense got 3 points better when Gobert sat, but the defense fell straight to hell. Teams scored 118 point per 100 against us in the non-Gobert minutes (vs. 106 in Gobert's minutes). It's not uncommon for coach's to get nervous and try to fix the problem with more offense in the playoffs, but that doesn't mean it's the correct move. We weren't beating the Thunder either way, but less Gobert went disatrously.

[SA37]

There are plenty of negative things one can say about Gobert in the playoffs, and sometimes by the eye test he looked bad. I don't disagree with any of that. On the flip side, he played some absolutely dominant defense, and his offensive struggles could be blamed on Minnesota's playmakers, who shied away from interior passing in general.

My main concern with Gobert is the decline of his rebounding. There's been a definite drop off there statistically, and I think it's the biggest sign of him moving with less strength and balance as he gets deeper into his 30s. His rebounding is still good, but he used to be one of the best in the league. Now he looks creaky on box outs.

You like to say "plus minus is a garbage stat" a lot, but at some point, you'll probably have to defend that position. I dont view +/- based arguments as definite or any sort of checkmate, but they're useful data in terms of understanding how a team is performing when a player in on the floor, in the most basic way. I can say "PPG is a garbage stat" but if I never make a case why, it just sounds like I'm dodging a part of an argument that isn't in my favor. +/- can be noisy and misleading, but throwing it out entirely is silliness.

In general, Minnesota dominated opposition when we had Jaden and/or Gobert on the floor. Despite Finch getting nervous about offense, and picking Randle/Naz lineups, those didn't work out. So you can point to Finch's wisdom on this and trust it, but it's important to note that he ended up being wrong that. The offense got 3 points better when Gobert sat, but the defense fell straight to hell. Teams scored 118 point per 100 against us in the non-Gobert minutes (vs. 106 in Gobert's minutes). It's not uncommon for coach's to get nervous and try to fix the problem with more offense in the playoffs, but that doesn't mean it's the correct move. We weren't beating the Thunder either way, but less Gobert went disatrously.

As I've said in other posts, maybe it was a one-off for Gobert and he just had a subpar season. Maybe he comes back and puts together 2-3 more good seasons before his decline really kicks in. I don't think that is the likely scenario, but I'm not going to write Gobert off bc of one season.

+/- is a garbage stat for me because it muddles correlation and causation. As you pointed out, it's noisy, misleading, and basic. I don't see any use for it, nor do I see the use for most of the advanced metrics.

There is always the possibility Finch made the wrong choice, but it isn't as simple as saying Gobert should have played more.

For decades, I've watched Miami assemble teams that have featured offensively limited players and defensive-minded guys. But, Miami had its best teams when they had dominant offenses. Easy to say when Miami had LeBron, Bosh, Wade and company. But Miami managed to win when they had old Shaq, Antoine Walker and Jason Williams in their starting lineup. Even Miami's most recent run to the Finals was on the back of outrageous 3-point shooting.

[cupcakesnake]

As I've said in other posts, maybe it was a one-off for Gobert and he just had a subpar season. Maybe he comes back and puts together 2-3 more good seasons before his decline really kicks in. I don't think that is the likely scenario, but I'm not going to write Gobert off bc of one season.

Maybe. Usually, when we see any decline after the clock strikes 30, it's real. Sometimes it's injury and there's room for a bounce back, but with Gobert we've seen his FTA and defensive rebounding sliding for 3 seasons. Those numbers match my eye test of Rudy looking a little less strong and balanced as he ages. Same with scoring. He needs a little more load up on his jumps, and that gives defense more of chance to bother his shots or force turnovers. I don't think he's cooked, but I'm sure his best days are behind him. Minnesota obviously hopes he can keep being a solid starting center for the next 3 seasons, and I'd even consider 2 seasons a nice result.

+/- is a garbage stat for me because it muddles correlation and causation. As you pointed out, it's noisy, misleading, and basic. I don't see any use for it, nor do I see the use for most of the advanced metrics.

This is like saying wins are a garbage stat though, right? No stat tells the whole story, so I agree it's silly to lean too heavily on it. I think you're leaning too far in the other direction though, and falling on your face. Rudy Gobert has consistently had good looking on/off numbers over his career, and that's because his teams play all-time great defense with him on the floor. It's not complicated. Questioning single season +/- is fair to me. Questioning an entire career... that's just some heavy data to ignore.

There is always the possibility Finch made the wrong choice, but it isn't as simple as saying Gobert should have played more.

If Gobert had played more, Minnesota would have defended better. Of this I have no doubt. Our offense would have been slightly worse.

For decades, I've watched Miami assemble teams that have featured offensively limited players and defensive-minded guys. But, Miami had its best teams when they had dominant offenses. Easy to say when Miami had LeBron, Bosh, Wade and company. But Miami managed to win when they had old Shaq, Antoine Walker and Jason Williams in their starting lineup. Even Miami's most recent run to the Finals was on the back of outrageous 3-point shooting.

We're getting a little too absolute here. Teams clearly need offense and defense. Great offense or defense lessen the need for the other to be great. With your Miami example, those 3-point explosions were enough offense, because Miami had a great defense supporting that. If Miami couldn't defend, they would have lost more shoot outs. Defense gave Miami a fighting chance, so when the 3-point shooting got hot and got their offense out of the basement, they were suddenly a real 2-way team.

2006 Miami was a good defensive team. Wade, Haslem, Posey, and Zo balanced out the more offensively slanted guys. Their offense completely failed them in the playoffs. They posted a -2.0 rOrtg, which was the 11th ranked playoff offense that year. Fortunately, the defense proved legit. -6.2 rDrtg was good for the #1 ranked defense in the playoffs.

We've seen teams be elite on one end, and cobble together enough of a solution on the other. It can go either way, and history gives us plenty of examples of both.