2025 Playoff Chase & Standings Watch

[Randle McMurphy]

Fangraphs updated odds give us a 92.1% chance of winning the division.

5-1 on our 6-game homestand while outscoring opponents 34-13 and the next two series come against teams with a combined 0.3% chance of making the playoffs. It's pretty much all but guaranteed at this point that we'll win the division – and likely finish with the best record in the AL – especially considering how we have generally been playing for the past 4 months. Wild to me that some people are so paranoid of the miniscule chance of us losing the division lead that they can't let the majority of fans enjoy the moment.

All but guaranteed eh?

Look up 1987. If FGs existed then, the odds would have been much better than that.

[pingpongrac]

Fangraphs updated odds give us a 92.1% chance of winning the division.

5-1 on our 6-game homestand while outscoring opponents 34-13 and the next two series come against teams with a combined 0.3% chance of making the playoffs. It's pretty much all but guaranteed at this point that we'll win the division – and likely finish with the best record in the AL – especially considering how we have generally been playing for the past 4 months. Wild to me that some people are so paranoid of the miniscule chance of us losing the division lead that they can't let the majority of fans enjoy the moment.

All but guaranteed eh?

Look up 1987. If FGs existed then, the odds would have been much better than that.

I'd wager my account for the next two months that we hold onto the division lead. If we do, you go two whole days without clogging up the board with your negativity about all things Blue Jays not Varsho and Kirk. Deal?

[duppyy]

Magic number to clinch the division is 11 with 15 games remaining and we are essentially 3 wins up on the Tigers for the best record in the AL. A good road trip for us this week likely all but seals the fate of the Yankees and Tigers. Also, a 7-6 finish the for us the rest of the way forces the Yankees to win all but 1 of their last 13 games to leapfrog us. Looking damn good.

I believe it’s 10 games to clinch the division.

[vaff87]

Magic number to clinch the division is 11 with 15 games remaining and we are essentially 3 wins up on the Tigers for the best record in the AL. A good road trip for us this week likely all but seals the fate of the Yankees and Tigers. Also, a 7-6 finish the for us the rest of the way forces the Yankees to win all but 1 of their last 13 games to leapfrog us. Looking damn good.

I believe it’s 10 games to clinch the division.

9 now, I think. Most the Yankees can get is 96 wins. We have 87 wins, and the tiebreaker over the Yankees.

[Randle McMurphy]

5-1 on our 6-game homestand while outscoring opponents 34-13 and the next two series come against teams with a combined 0.3% chance of making the playoffs. It's pretty much all but guaranteed at this point that we'll win the division – and likely finish with the best record in the AL – especially considering how we have generally been playing for the past 4 months. Wild to me that some people are so paranoid of the miniscule chance of us losing the division lead that they can't let the majority of fans enjoy the moment.

All but guaranteed eh?

Look up 1987. If FGs existed then, the odds would have been much better than that.

I'd wager my account for the next two months that we hold onto the division lead. If we do, you go two whole days without clogging up the board with your negativity about all things Blue Jays not Varsho and Kirk. Deal?

Why would I make that bet if the odds are apparently only 8% for me? Doesn’t seem favourable.

[Randle McMurphy]

Magic number to clinch the division is 11 with 15 games remaining and we are essentially 3 wins up on the Tigers for the best record in the AL. A good road trip for us this week likely all but seals the fate of the Yankees and Tigers. Also, a 7-6 finish the for us the rest of the way forces the Yankees to win all but 1 of their last 13 games to leapfrog us. Looking damn good.

I believe it’s 10 games to clinch the division.

9 now, I think. Most the Yankees can get is 96 wins. We have 87 wins, and the tiebreaker over the Yankees.

Any combination of 9 Jays wins or Yankees losses.

Unfortunately the Yankees are playing the Twins and Orioles this week (a possible 7-0), we are going to have to somehow knock that down ourselves against the nemesis Rays.

[pingpongrac]

All but guaranteed eh?

Look up 1987. If FGs existed then, the odds would have been much better than that.

I'd wager my account for the next two months that we hold onto the division lead. If we do, you go two whole days without clogging up the board with your negativity about all things Blue Jays not Varsho and Kirk. Deal?

Why would I make that bet if the odds are apparently only 8% for me? Doesn’t seem favourable.

How is that not favourable for you? 60 days for me and 2 days for you means I'm basically giving you +3000 odds for something that is more like +1100 lol.

[Randle McMurphy]

I'd wager my account for the next two months that we hold onto the division lead. If we do, you go two whole days without clogging up the board with your negativity about all things Blue Jays not Varsho and Kirk. Deal?

Why would I make that bet if the odds are apparently only 8% for me? Doesn’t seem favourable.

How is that not favourable for you? 60 days for me and 2 days for you means I'm basically giving you +3000 odds for something that is more like +1100 lol.

It’s a hard pass. This board needs my input and insight, now more than ever. Someone has to defend management when it is deserved and trash them when it isn’t regardless of the ups and downs of any particular season.

I just can’t take that kind of risk.

[SharoneWright]

I remember 1987. (Barely)

I also remember the Leafs being up 2–0 in games and 2–0 in the 1st period of Game 3 against Panthers last spring. My kid turned to me in the car and told me we were going to win the series… I stared blankly ahead.

I do think we face enough middling teams the rest of the way to get the division this time around, but I’m certainly not counting my chickens.

[Jerry Lucas]

All but guaranteed eh?

Look up 1987. If FGs existed then, the odds would have been much better than that.

I'd wager my account for the next two months that we hold onto the division lead. If we do, you go two whole days without clogging up the board with your negativity about all things Blue Jays not Varsho and Kirk. Deal?

Why would I make that bet if the odds are apparently only 8% for me? Doesn’t seem favourable.

It's also such an easy offer for him to make. Even if the 8% comes true, ghosting the board for 2 months is probably what he would do anyway if the Jays choke the division lead/top 2 AL seed, after how confidently he's been posting that a collapse won't happen.

[pingpongrac]

I'd wager my account for the next two months that we hold onto the division lead. If we do, you go two whole days without clogging up the board with your negativity about all things Blue Jays not Varsho and Kirk. Deal?

Why would I make that bet if the odds are apparently only 8% for me? Doesn’t seem favourable.

It's also such an easy offer for him to make. Even if the 8% comes true, ghosting the board for 2 months is probably what he would do anyway if the Jays choke the division lead/top 2 AL seed, after how confidently he's been posting that a collapse won't happen.

Yeah, the guy willing to give up his posting privileges for two months – when MLB playoffs and NBA training camp would be kicking off – is the one making and taking the easy offer...not the guy who couldn't troll for a whopping 48 hours – when neither the Jays or Raptors (or Leafs even) would likely be playing a game.

[Randle McMurphy]

I'd wager my account for the next two months that we hold onto the division lead. If we do, you go two whole days without clogging up the board with your negativity about all things Blue Jays not Varsho and Kirk. Deal?

Why would I make that bet if the odds are apparently only 8% for me? Doesn’t seem favourable.

It's also such an easy offer for him to make. Even if the 8% comes true, ghosting the board for 2 months is probably what he would do anyway if the Jays choke the division lead/top 2 AL seed, after how confidently he's been posting that a collapse won't happen.

You're exactly right. He'd scurry away anyway if the worst case scenario occurred and leave us to pick up the pieces here.

Anyway, far bigger leads than 4 games have been blown in 2 weeks. That doesn't mean it is likely going to happen, but ruling out the possibility isn't the way to go here anyway.

[pingpongrac]

Why would I make that bet if the odds are apparently only 8% for me? Doesn’t seem favourable.

It's also such an easy offer for him to make. Even if the 8% comes true, ghosting the board for 2 months is probably what he would do anyway if the Jays choke the division lead/top 2 AL seed, after how confidently he's been posting that a collapse won't happen.

You're exactly right. He'd scurry away anyway if the worst case scenario occurred and leave us to pick up the pieces here.

Anyway, far bigger leads than 4 games have been blown in 2 weeks. That doesn't mean it is likely going to happen, but ruling out the possibility isn't the way to go here anyway.

It's not scurrying away. It's a sacrifice I'm willing to make. I'm putting my account on the line to give this board a 48-hour break of freedom from the constant negativity from you despite the team wildly exceeding expectations and on pace to have its winningest season since the last time they won the World Series in 1993.

Also, the lead is essentially 5 because we own the tiebreaker. Obviously it is possible to blow it, but you have been claiming the team is choking their division lead away for weeks – multiple times in nearly every thread – when the reality is they've actually extended their lead since losing 4 straight games at the end of July.

[SharoneWright]

Jazz Chisholm showing us again why the Yankees are the team to beat!

[vaff87]

Updated odds of winning the division on fangraphs is 97.1%.

[Randle McMurphy]

Collapse on hold for today after that disgusting Yankees loss. We’ve got an unfavourable pitching matchup tomorrow in both Tampa and Minnesota so we’ll re-evaluate tomorrow.

[vaff87]

So the 1987 collapse.

The Jays were 3.5 games ahead of the Tigers with 7 and 8 games remaining, respectively. And 4 of those games were against one another. The Tigers ended up winning the division by 2 games.

[vaff87]

With a magic number of 7, and 12 games left for both the Jays and Yankees, we need 7 of 24 results to go our way. 29.2%.

[Parataxis]

Fun Fact: The Yankees are currently closer to being out of the playoffs (4.5 games) than they are to winning the division (5 games).

The collapse is on?!