Bears thread 13

[Dresden]

One thing you can say about Caleb- at least he's still healthy. JJ McCarthy could miss multiple weeks with an ankle injury, Jayden Daniels likely out next week with a knee, and Burrows out 3 months with a toe injury.

[Dresden]

After watching the game yesterday, my concern about Caleb has gone from an 8 to a 3, and my concern about the rest of the team from a 3 to an 8.

[Dresden]

I wonder how differently things would have turned out if Swift doesn't fumble the ball, or if they picked up that first down on the QB sneaks, or if they didn't get jobbed at the end of the half? They could have gone into the break tied, or at worst down one score.

[panthermark]

Read on Twitter

The Bears are in salary cap hell with those players, this has been the worse case scenario start for the Bears this season under new HC Ben Johnson. I honestly don't know what else they can do as the flexibility is not there, our defense is hurt and overpaid, we don't have a consistent run game as Johnson wasn't even used in the backfield yesterday. Not to mention our QB is afraid of the pocket and can only see one WR on the field that he trusts.

Sad part is that the Bears were in salary cap hell when Poles took over.

2018 season: 12-4 record, finishing 1st in the NFC North.
2019 season: 8-8 record, finishing 3rd in the NFC North.
2020 season: 8-8 record, finishing 2nd in the NFC North.
2021 season: 6-11 record, finishing 3rd in the NFC North.
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Poles takes over
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2022 season: 3-14 record, finishing 4th in the NFC North.
2023 season: 7-10 record, finishing 4th in the NFC North.
2024 season: 5-12 record, finishing 4th in the NFC North.
2025 season: 0-2 record, currently 4th in the NFC North.

Dude is record setting.

Longest losing streak in Bears history.
Tied for 2nd longest losing streak in Bears history.
Longest losing streak in a single season.
Most sacked QB in a season in Bears history (Williams)
2nd most sacked QB in a season in Bears history (Fields)
4th most sacked QB in a season in Bears history (Fields)

[jnrjr79]

Read on Twitter

Honestly, this seems fine. Of those salaries, maybe you'd want out of the Sweat contract. I'd imagine you could dump DJ Moore for a later pick if you just want to shed his deal. Kmet is only $3M, so that would be an easy one otherwise unload. All the rest of the guys you want to keep.

To me, the problem with the roster is mostly not about the vets who are under contract, but about not hitting enough with the younger guys who the Bears drafted and are on rookie deals.

2025 NFL Draft

Round 1, pick No. 10: Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan

Round 2, No. 39: Luther Burden, WR, Missouri

Round 2, No. 56: Ozzy Trapilo, OT, Boston College

Round 2 No. 62: Shemar Turner, DT, Texas A&M

Round 4, No. 132: Ruben Hyppolite, LB, Maryland

Round 5, No. 148: Zah Frazier, CB, UTSA

Round 6, No. 195: Luke Newman, OL, Michigan State

Round 7, No. 233: Kyle Monangai, RB, Rutgers


2024 NFL Draft

Round 1, pick No. 1: Caleb Williams, quarterback, USC

Round 1, pick No. 9: Rome Odunze, wide receiver, Washington

Round 3, pick No. 75: Kiran Amegadjie, offensive tackle, Yale

Round 5, pick No. 122: Tory Taylor, punter, Iowa

Round 5, pick No. 144: Austin Booker, defensive end, Kansas


2023 NFL Draft

Round 1, pick No. 10: Darnell Wright, offensive tackle, Tennesee

Round 2, pick No. 53: Gervon Dexter, defensive tackle, Florida

Round 2, pick. No. 56: Tyrique Stevenson, defensive back, Miami

Round 3, pick No. 64: Zacch Pickens, defensive tackle, Georgia

Round 4, pick No. 115: Roschon Johnson, running back, Texas

Round 4, pick No. 133: Tyler Scott, wide receiver, Cincinnati

Round 5, pick No. 148: Noah Sewell, linebacker, Oregon

Round 5, pick No. 165: Terrell Smith, defensive back, Minnesota

Round 7, pick No. 218: Travis Bell, defensive tackle, Kennesaw State

Round 7, pick No. 258: Kendall Williamson, safety, Stanford


2022 NFL Draft

Round 2, pick No. 39: Kyler Gordon, defensive back, Washington

Round 2, pick, No. 48: Jaquan Brisker, safety, Penn State

Round 3, pick No. 71: Velus Jones Jr., wide receiver, Tennessee

Round 5, pick No. 168: Braxton Jones, offensive tackle, Southern Utah

Round 5, pick No. 174: Dominique Robinson, defensive end, Miami (Ohio)

Round 6, pick No. 186: Zachary Thomas, offensive lineman, San Diego State

Round 6, pick No. 203: Trestan Ebner, running back, Baylor

Round 6, pick No. 207: Doug Kramer, offensive lineman, Illinois

Round 7, pick No. 227: Ja'Tyre Carter, offensive lineman, Southern

Round 7, pick No. 254: Elijah Hicks, safety, California

Round 7, pick No. 255: Trenton Gill, punter, North Carolina State



I'm not going to judge the 2025 class yet, but I'd say there are not as many contributors as you'd want from these groups. 2022 was pretty good, but it's been fairly dicey since then in terms of finding guys beyond the first round.

[dougthonus]

I wonder how differently things would have turned out if Swift doesn't fumble the ball, or if they picked up that first down on the QB sneaks, or if they didn't get jobbed at the end of the half? They could have gone into the break tied, or at worst down one score.

And then what? They still lost the second half by 17 points.

[jnrjr79]

I wonder how differently things would have turned out if Swift doesn't fumble the ball, or if they picked up that first down on the QB sneaks, or if they didn't get jobbed at the end of the half? They could have gone into the break tied, or at worst down one score.

And then what? They still lost the second half by 17 points.

Sure, but you can never know whether the game goes the same way if things break differently before. Who knows? Players aren't robots. Maybe that stuff would've mattered, maybe not.

That said, I have a hard time seeing them overcome the Jaylon Johnson injury. That secondary was just massively outgunned without him.

[Dresden]

I wonder how differently things would have turned out if Swift doesn't fumble the ball, or if they picked up that first down on the QB sneaks, or if they didn't get jobbed at the end of the half? They could have gone into the break tied, or at worst down one score.

And then what? They still lost the second half by 17 points.

Just wondering if maybe things would have turned out differently in the second half if they had gone into the half tied or down only one score. Those mistakes were big momentum killers, especially the fumble and not picking up 1 yard in two tries.

[jnrjr79]

I wonder how differently things would have turned out if Swift doesn't fumble the ball, or if they picked up that first down on the QB sneaks, or if they didn't get jobbed at the end of the half? They could have gone into the break tied, or at worst down one score.

And then what? They still lost the second half by 17 points.

Just wondering if maybe things would have turned out differently in the second half if they had gone into the half tied or down only one score. Those mistakes were big momentum killers, especially the fumble and not picking up 1 yard in two tries.

I have a harder time reassessing the fumble, because honestly that tackle was so perfectly done that I'm not sure anyone could have avoided coughing it up.

Not being able to get 1 yard in two tries is a killer, and that officiating error was a free touchdown to Detroit when the game was still close. That was one of the more impactful reffing screw-ups I can remember seeing.

[Dresden]

Read on Twitter

Honestly, this seems fine. Of those salaries, maybe you'd want out of the Sweat contract. I'd imagine you could dump DJ Moore for a later pick if you just want to shed his deal. Kmet is only $3M, so that would be an easy one otherwise unload. All the rest of the guys you want to keep.

To me, the problem with the roster is mostly not about the vets who are under contract, but about not hitting enough with the younger guys who the Bears drafted and are on rookie deals.

.

I mostly agree. A few vet signings also appear to be mistakes, but it's mainly the lack of any rising young stars that hurts. Kiran and Pickens are busts, Dexter is ok, but certainly not a star, Trapillo and Turner we don't know yet. Tyrique is looking like a bust. Even Darnell looks shaky this season.

On the positive side, Caleb looked much better last game, and Rome looks like a stud. We'll see how the next couple of games shake out, but with how things are going they really don't seem to need two high end TE's.

[dougthonus]

Sure, but you can never know whether the game goes the same way if things break differently before. Who knows? Players aren't robots. Maybe that stuff would've mattered, maybe not.

That said, I have a hard time seeing them overcome the Jaylon Johnson injury. That secondary was just massively outgunned without him.

Of all the maybes that can potentially exist in a football game, I think they are least valuable in a game you lost by 31. In the end, there is a lot of variance and chance in every game, and part of being a winning football game is being good enough that chance doesn't work against you so often. When you lose by 31, the amount of other things that would need to happen differently is absurdly large.

[fleet]

Schefter reporting that JJ is out indefinitely with the groin injury and the Bears are investigating whether he needs surgery.

Not great, Bob.

If they’re investigating surgery I wouldn’t play him for 3 months with or without surgery. As it is, it seems like they rushed him to play without very slowly ramping him up in practice. Or he did it to himself because he wants to renegotiate his deal. Someone did.

[dougthonus]

Just wondering if maybe things would have turned out differently in the second half if they had gone into the half tied or down only one score. Those mistakes were big momentum killers, especially the fumble and not picking up 1 yard in two tries.

Anything is possible, but I'll save my "what ifs" for a game lost by 3 points rather than one lost by 31. Yeah, that TD hurt for sure and was a poor call, by the ref on the field, but it was a reasonable poor call (ie, bang/bang hard to see with the naked eye) that is the type replay may need to overturn, and if it weren't for replay, the clock would have just stopped with 16 seconds and they'd have had 2-3 tries at a TD anyway.

We had a lot of big mistakes / problems otherwise, but those ultimately were our players on the field that either made mistakes or failed to execute and that is a reflection of our talent level / coaching / present position.

[jnrjr79]

Sure, but you can never know whether the game goes the same way if things break differently before. Who knows? Players aren't robots. Maybe that stuff would've mattered, maybe not.

That said, I have a hard time seeing them overcome the Jaylon Johnson injury. That secondary was just massively outgunned without him.

Of all the maybes that can potentially exist in a football game, I think they are least valuable in a game you lost by 31. In the end, there is a lot of variance and chance in every game, and part of being a winning football game is being good enough that chance doesn't work against you so often. When you lose by 31, one amount of other things that would need to happen differently is absurdly large.

This is true if you don’t believe in momentum/the bottom falling out.

[dougthonus]

This is true if you don’t believe in momentum/the bottom falling out.

If you lack the resiliency to stop two bad plays from letting the bottom fall out, that also likely means you are not a good team, because that kind of stuff is going to happen every game.

[Dresden]

Schefter reporting that JJ is out indefinitely with the groin injury and the Bears are investigating whether he needs surgery.

Not great, Bob.

If they’re investigating surgery I wouldn’t play him for 3 months with or without surgery. As it is, it seems like they rushed him to play without very slowly ramping him up in practice. Or he did it to himself because he wants to renegotiate his deal. Someone did.

Or, everyone thought he was good to go, but under game stress, he tweaked it again. Doesn't have to be someone's mistake.

[Dresden]

This is true if you don’t believe in momentum/the bottom falling out.

If you lack the resiliency to stop two bad plays from letting the bottom fall out, that also likely means you are not a good team, because that kind of stuff is going to happen every game.

We aren't talking about if they're a good team or not, just that it may have changed the complexion of the game. The second half was certainly different than the first half. If a few key plays had gone the other way, you could easily have gone into halftime tied. The second half may still have been one-sided, but I think being down 14 could have been deflating and contributed to the second half letdown.

[Dresden]

If the Bears could just clean up one thing, it's the damn penalties on offense. I think everyone on the O line other than Thuney had either a hold or a personal foul. Those types of penalties are tough to overcome. And on top of that, we had another 3-4 false starts.

Of all the problems they have, this one seems the most fixable, and would make a big difference. Those big penalties killed several drives where we might have scored.

[dougthonus]

We aren't talking about if they're a good team or not, just that it may have changed the complexion of the game. The second half was certainly different than the first half. If a few key plays had gone the other way, you could easily have gone into halftime tied. The second half may still have been one-sided, but I think being down 14 could have been deflating and contributed to the second half letdown.

Maybe. I'm not sure if it is better or worse to think that Detroit is that much better than us talent wise or that we're a bit closer on raw talent, but we're so mentally weak that we fold. Neither are good problems TBH.

[Dresden]

Sounds like Jaylen is very likely to miss the whole regular season. Reports are this is a new injury, not a re-injury of a previous one. I don't know which is worse- getting beat 52-14 and being 0-2, or losing your best defensive player for the season.