Bulls re-sign Josh Giddey - 4/100- no options, fully guaranteed

[sco]

He's already improved his jumper and therefore has proven that he's capable of improving his jumper

I think you hit the key point that has been the center of the issue. Josh with a 3pt shot is a near-allstar. He has shown continual year-over-year improvement in the area, even if you focus on his full-year numbers vs. his 29 game hot streak. Still, much of the debate as to the level of player that Giddey is is centered around how much of that 29 game (statistically nearly impossible) hot streak 3pt shooting carries over going forward. His ability to make and take more 3's makes a huge difference on what else he can do from an efficiency perspective offensively.

[MGB8]

Yup. Can he be enough of a threat that opposing teams need to stay close to him and close out hard, opening up the option of a fake and pass, drive, or both + making things easier on everyone else.

It is one thing to hit a high percentage when not well defended - where the shot is well set up. It is another to hit them in a way where you get it up quickly but still shoot and hit at a high rate, forcing the defense to adjust. There is legit potential that Giddey could get there, and that would be huge.

[dougthonus]

He's already improved his jumper and therefore has proven that he's capable of improving his jumper

I think you hit the key point that has been the center of the issue. Josh with a 3pt shot is a near-allstar. He has shown continual year-over-year improvement in the area, even if you focus on his full-year numbers vs. his 29 game hot streak. Still, much of the debate as to the level of player that Giddey is is centered around how much of that 29 game (statistically nearly impossible) hot streak 3pt shooting carries over going forward. His ability to make and take more 3's makes a huge difference on what else he can do from an efficiency perspective offensively.

I think a wider problem is that visually watching him shoot, the improvement feels considerably much less than the statistics make you think it is.
- 98.6% of his shots are open / wide open (no defender within 4 feet)
- 82.6% of his shots are catch and shoot (not ideal for a PG that spends most of his time handling the ball)
- His release speed is still very slow and form still looks very poor
- He still passes up a ton of open threes
- Opponents still generally do not guard him or view him as a threat as a shooter (ie do not guard off the ball, always go under screens)

There are some really positive objective measures:
- slightly increased volume 4.7a per 36 (career average of 4.3)
- career high 37.8% from 3

Objectively, his shooting was much better, but the impact of that improved shooting is still relatively minimal when taken into the context of his role and how an NBA offense works. The fact that he improved is important, but there are a lot of indicators as to why people are highly skeptical that improvement is long lasting, and people tend to look at shooting as just a function of percentage / volume. Coby White's impact as a shooter is much, much higher than Giddey's as an example, but it'd be real easy look at the basic raw numbers and think otherwise if you aren't digging in or watching the game.

If Giddey were to become a legitimately good shooter which would require:
- A quicker release that allows for high volume
- Ability to shoot off the dribble
- Ability to shot side step / step back threes
- Shoot while defended (likely outcome of the above)
- Require the defense to guard him reasonably closely when off ball
- Require the defense to fight over screens rather than just going under screens

Then he would likely be a max player, but it's really hard for me to see Giddey taking the leap from where he is today to the guy who can do those things. Coby White can do all of those things, and the defense respects him as a shooter. He's only a 36.9% shooter for his career, but if he's left open, teams know that he will burn them. His percentage is low because he gets up a lot more shots and much, much more difficult shots. He gets up 7 attempts per 36 minutes with intense defensive attention, and his impact on the defense is big because teams have to guard him everywhere and can never lay off of him for a second. The impact on how the defense guards him is the much more important impact than the actual points per attempt he's able to generate, because it's what creates easy opportunities elsewhere.

[waffle]

- We are a better team with Giddey. He's a good fit for US. He makes other players more productive.
- We are a more entertaining team by bunches
- It's a very fair contract for the Bulls and likely tradeable after the first year
- he's 22.
- As I have stated before and someone above restated, there are lots of superstars who have weaknesses, be it shooting, their handle, athleticism, etc.

TO ME, this contract is a no brainier and likely very very much a win

[kodo]

Russell Westbrook & Lebron were also triple double guys who were worse 3P shooters than Giddey.

Lebron@22: 31% 3P
Lebron @26: 33%
Westbrook@22: 33%
Westbrook@26: 29%

Both guys were guys who shot the 3 because teams didn't want them creating plays off the P&R so sagged off. Playmakers need to punish that kind of defense by hitting open 3s, same as Giddey. Dribbling into a 3 or long 2 as the first option isn't what these guys or any team really should be doing as their first option. Even GS doesn't do this with Curry, by far the most capable player of just walking into a 3.

If shooting was this important, why did we trade one of the league's very best shooters in Lavine who shot at 64% TS. There's an excellent possibility, 99%+, the Bulls don't find a better shooter in the next 7 years than Lavine taking into account sheer accuracy, volume, and maintaining both while shooting off the dribble.

Being able to create offense with the ball in your hands and generate assists has huge value, and in a short timespan the team won far more games with Giddey at the helm than Lavine or Coby. The 3P shooting has been tertiary. Add Joker to the list, when he started appearing on MVP voting at age 23 & 24 he shot 30% & 31% from 3. He's rounded out to 36% career, but he's another guy who tries to create first and only hits 3s when the defense is giving it to him because they don't want him to create a play.

And these goal lines are way beyond a $25M player. A $25M PG just needs to be between Marcus Smart & Terry Rozier in value.

[Indomitable]

He's already improved his jumper and therefore has proven that he's capable of improving his jumper

It the speed of his release that is a problem. His slow release from distance is why centers can guard him.

[The Force.]

Giddey is a treadmill king but at least he gets other guys involved. His best quality moving forward will be helping to develop Matas and Noa, which I suppose is worth 25 mil.

[dougthonus]

Russell Westbrook & Lebron were also triple double guys who were worse 3P shooters than Giddey.

Lebron@22: 31% 3P
Lebron @26: 33%
Westbrook@22: 33%
Westbrook@26: 29%

Both guys were guys who shot the 3 because teams didn't want them creating plays off the P&R so sagged off. Playmakers need to punish that kind of defense by hitting open 3s, same as Giddey. Dribbling into a 3 or long 2 as the first option isn't what these guys or any team really should be doing as their first option. Even GS doesn't do this with Curry, by far the most capable player of just walking into a 3.

If shooting was this important, why did we trade one of the league's very best shooters in Lavine who shot at 64% TS. There's an excellent possibility, 99%+, the Bulls don't find a better shooter in the next 7 years than Lavine taking into account sheer accuracy, volume, and maintaining both while shooting off the dribble.

Being able to create offense with the ball in your hands and generate assists has huge value, and in a short timespan the team won far more games with Giddey at the helm than Lavine or Coby. The 3P shooting has been tertiary. Add Joker to the list, when he started appearing on MVP voting at age 23 & 24 he shot 30% & 31% from 3. He's rounded out to 36% career, but he's another guy who tries to create first and only hits 3s when the defense is giving it to him because they don't want him to create a play.

And these goal lines are way beyond a $25M player. A $25M PG just needs to be between Marcus Smart & Terry Rozier in value.

This misses the point of the problem, because it's too focused o the shooting and not the outcome of the shooting.

The outcome of Giddey's lack of shooting is that players always go under screens on him, sometimes play him on offense with 8 feet of space at the three point line when he's on ball, and completely pretend he doesn't exist off the ball. These things allow the opposing defense to load up in very significant ways against the rest of the players and team.

Those things do not occur with LeBron James or Russell Westbrook.

This doesn't mean Giddey is hopeless or anything. I think 25M is a very reasonable contract for him and can be a great value deal, but it isn't about hitting X% or Y% it's about what your team as a whole can do with a specific player in the lineup and how it affects the team as a whole.

[nomorezorro]

people really need to stop using other players on what we know now to be bad contracts as a measuring stick for giddey

the grizzlies had to attach a first round pick to marcus smart to salary dump him, and then he got bought out and signed for $5.5 million a year. terry rozier just had an awful season and the heat are reportedly desperate to move him but can't find any takers. if josh giddey is anywhere in the ballpark of those two guys, this will be a very bad deal

[nomorezorro]

i think doug is probably slightly overstating the degree to which giddey needs to become a Legitimate Shooting Threat for that part of his game to become a much less glaring issue than it has been for much of his career. or maybe more accurately, his posts aren't accounting for a scenario where giddey's able to sustain a multi-front improvement where e.g. he's a decent maker of wide-open shots who consistently takes them when the opportunity presents itself, and he becomes good enough as a driver/finisher/foul-drawer that teams can't just cede him space that he'd use to get downhill, and he's got a strong enough drive+kick game that teams can't just pack the paint against him to shut down his offense

but i do think his posts are a lot closer to right than the people who act like the 37.8% figure in the 3P% column for the most recent season on his basketball-reference page is proof that giddey is a fine shooter (or even that you can be reasonably confident in his ability to eventually become one)

[dougthonus]

i think doug is probably slightly overstating the degree to which giddey needs to become a Legitimate Shooting Threat for that part of his game to become a much less glaring issue than it has been for much of his career. or maybe more accurately, his posts aren't accounting for a scenario where giddey's able to sustain a multi-front improvement where e.g. he's a decent maker of wide-open shots who consistently takes them when the opportunity presents itself, and he becomes good enough as a driver/finisher/foul-drawer that teams can't just cede him space that he'd use to get downhill, and he's got a strong enough drive+kick game that teams can't just pack the paint against him to shut down his offense

but i do think his posts are a lot closer to right than the people who act like the 37.8% figure in the 3P% column for the most recent season on his basketball-reference page is proof that giddey is a fine shooter (or even that you can be reasonably confident in his ability to eventually become one)

FWIW, I'm trying to describe the impact of his shooting. He could mitigate that shooting impact in other ways.

Ie, if he can consistently drive and draw fouls at the rim and when teams give him room he gets a head of steam that he generates consistent advantage of, then the shooting is less of an issue. It doesn't have to be that he improves shooting necessarily, but the overall spacing issue is the thing that is the potential problem.

For me, at 25M, he does enough that I'm not worried about the shooting that much, but when specifically just looking at the shooting numbers, they _look_ a lot better than the results created by his shooting profile, and people are thinking he's much closer to a good shooter than he is.

[Stratmaster]

What Doug is saying is that if he wasn't pretty bad in a couple of key things, his elite skills would make him a max or near max player, which is true IMO.

It's just obvious consensus and really easy to see by the eye test that Josh Giddey is a significantly below average athlete for a 6'8" NBA player.

just because we did this once before, and it was so much fun, here is what AI says about "Is Josh Giddey athletic?". AI is generally a compilation (aka consensus") of opinions.

"Yes, Josh Giddey is generally considered an athletic player, though his athleticism is characterized more by agility, court vision, and passing ability rather than pure explosive power. He demonstrates impressive skills such as making difficult passes, securing rebounds, executing steals, and driving through traffic to finish or set up teammates. While some may perceive a lack of "athletic pop" in his game compared to other players, his ability to push the ball down the court, his versatility on defense, and his successful completion of impressive plays, like a dunk after a drive, highlight his athleticism"

Ther eis a tendency for us to think that if we believe in something, that makes it a consensus.

See how easy this is:

It is impossible to provide an exact percentage of NBA players of a specific height who are more or less athletic than Josh Giddey, because athleticism is a subjective trait that scouts do not measure using public metrics. However, based on scouting reports and analysis, the consensus among evaluators is that most NBA players who are also 6'8" would be considered more athletic than Giddey.
Why Josh Giddey is not considered a top-tier athlete
Scouting reports from his draft year and throughout his career have consistently identified his lack of elite explosiveness and quickness as a significant weakness, even with his size. His primary strengths lie in his high basketball IQ, passing, and craftiness, not his physical gifts.
Specific athletic limitations include:
Average explosiveness: Giddey is not a particularly explosive player and is not known for his above-the-rim finishing.
Lack of lateral quickness: Scouts note his average lateral quickness and upright defensive stance, which causes issues when guarding quicker players.
Neutral wingspan: Giddey is listed at 6'8" but has a wingspan that is either reported as neutral (6'8") or slightly negative, which limits his defensive and finishing abilities compared to other players his height.
Below-average finishing at the rim: Despite his height, his finishing percentages at the rim have been considered poor for his position compared to his peers.
Most 6'8" NBA players are more athletic
The NBA features the most athletically gifted basketball players in the world. As a general rule, any player who is singled out for their lack of elite athleticism compared to his peers is going to rank in the bottom percentile.
The majority of players 6'8" or taller possess superior length, explosiveness, and lateral quickness. Giddey's athleticism is widely seen as below average for his position in the NBA, not just for his height. This means a substantial majority of the league's 6'8" players would be rated as more athletic by scouts.
What portion would be considered less athletic?
A very small percentage of players would be considered less athletic than Giddey, and most of these players are typically:
Older veterans whose athletic abilities have declined significantly.
Specialized players whose primary role does not rely on athleticism (e.g., floor-spacing shooters).
Players whose athleticism is limited by injuries or other physical limitations.

They called him "average" in 3 of the categories lol. Which is what I said. And that is from his draft scouting years ago.

[Chi town]

i think doug is probably slightly overstating the degree to which giddey needs to become a Legitimate Shooting Threat for that part of his game to become a much less glaring issue than it has been for much of his career. or maybe more accurately, his posts aren't accounting for a scenario where giddey's able to sustain a multi-front improvement where e.g. he's a decent maker of wide-open shots who consistently takes them when the opportunity presents itself, and he becomes good enough as a driver/finisher/foul-drawer that teams can't just cede him space that he'd use to get downhill, and he's got a strong enough drive+kick game that teams can't just pack the paint against him to shut down his offense

but i do think his posts are a lot closer to right than the people who act like the 37.8% figure in the 3P% column for the most recent season on his basketball-reference page is proof that giddey is a fine shooter (or even that you can be reasonably confident in his ability to eventually become one)

This.

Giddey’s 6 FTs per game is just as important as his 5 3PA per game. Rim pressure and 3pt line spacing pressure.

If he continues that this season he will be respected as a shooter as the season goes on and that alone would make him an all star caliber.

If he can add a step back or any 3 creation off the bounce we are looking at an all NBA player.

[Chi town]

i think doug is probably slightly overstating the degree to which giddey needs to become a Legitimate Shooting Threat for that part of his game to become a much less glaring issue than it has been for much of his career. or maybe more accurately, his posts aren't accounting for a scenario where giddey's able to sustain a multi-front improvement where e.g. he's a decent maker of wide-open shots who consistently takes them when the opportunity presents itself, and he becomes good enough as a driver/finisher/foul-drawer that teams can't just cede him space that he'd use to get downhill, and he's got a strong enough drive+kick game that teams can't just pack the paint against him to shut down his offense

but i do think his posts are a lot closer to right than the people who act like the 37.8% figure in the 3P% column for the most recent season on his basketball-reference page is proof that giddey is a fine shooter (or even that you can be reasonably confident in his ability to eventually become one)

FWIW, I'm trying to describe the impact of his shooting. He could mitigate that shooting impact in other ways.

Ie, if he can consistently drive and draw fouls at the rim and when teams give him room he gets a head of steam that he generates consistent advantage of, then the shooting is less of an issue. It doesn't have to be that he improves shooting necessarily, but the overall spacing issue is the thing that is the potential problem.

For me, at 25M, he does enough that I'm not worried about the shooting that much, but when specifically just looking at the shooting numbers, they _look_ a lot better than the results created by his shooting profile, and people are thinking he's much closer to a good shooter than he is.

I think Giddey can lead a top 10 NBA offense because of his pace and I buy his shooting improvement. Much like Lonzo, you are seeing mechanical changes to his form and confidence that comes from putting in the work.

[Dez]

He's currently in Melbourne training, actually had a run with Panathinaikos who are in Melbourne for some exhibition games.

[Chi town]

He's currently in Melbourne training, actually had a run with Panathinaikos who are in Melbourne for some exhibition games.

Any videos?

[Dez]

He's currently in Melbourne training, actually had a run with Panathinaikos who are in Melbourne for some exhibition games.

Any videos?

At the moment no, although it was at an open training session for Panathinaikos at Courtside in Melbourne where he's been training and he happened to be there and trained with them complete with Panathinaikos jersey.

I'd imagine some sort of video will come out.

[coldfish]

He's already improved his jumper and therefore has proven that he's capable of improving his jumper

I think you hit the key point that has been the center of the issue. Josh with a 3pt shot is a near-allstar. He has shown continual year-over-year improvement in the area, even if you focus on his full-year numbers vs. his 29 game hot streak. Still, much of the debate as to the level of player that Giddey is is centered around how much of that 29 game (statistically nearly impossible) hot streak 3pt shooting carries over going forward. His ability to make and take more 3's makes a huge difference on what else he can do from an efficiency perspective offensively.

I think a wider problem is that visually watching him shoot, the improvement feels considerably much less than the statistics make you think it is.
- 98.6% of his shots are open / wide open (no defender within 4 feet)
- 82.6% of his shots are catch and shoot (not ideal for a PG that spends most of his time handling the ball)
- His release speed is still very slow and form still looks very poor
- He still passes up a ton of open threes
- Opponents still generally do not guard him or view him as a threat as a shooter (ie do not guard off the ball, always go under screens)

There are some really positive objective measures:
- slightly increased volume 4.7a per 36 (career average of 4.3)
- career high 37.8% from 3

Objectively, his shooting was much better, but the impact of that improved shooting is still relatively minimal when taken into the context of his role and how an NBA offense works. The fact that he improved is important, but there are a lot of indicators as to why people are highly skeptical that improvement is long lasting, and people tend to look at shooting as just a function of percentage / volume. Coby White's impact as a shooter is much, much higher than Giddey's as an example, but it'd be real easy look at the basic raw numbers and think otherwise if you aren't digging in or watching the game.

If Giddey were to become a legitimately good shooter which would require:
- A quicker release that allows for high volume
- Ability to shoot off the dribble
- Ability to shot side step / step back threes
- Shoot while defended (likely outcome of the above)
- Require the defense to guard him reasonably closely when off ball
- Require the defense to fight over screens rather than just going under screens

Then he would likely be a max player, but it's really hard for me to see Giddey taking the leap from where he is today to the guy who can do those things. Coby White can do all of those things, and the defense respects him as a shooter. He's only a 36.9% shooter for his career, but if he's left open, teams know that he will burn them. His percentage is low because he gets up a lot more shots and much, much more difficult shots. He gets up 7 attempts per 36 minutes with intense defensive attention, and his impact on the defense is big because teams have to guard him everywhere and can never lay off of him for a second. The impact on how the defense guards him is the much more important impact than the actual points per attempt he's able to generate, because it's what creates easy opportunities elsewhere.

Its funny but he has essentially become a Patrick Williams type 3 point shooter. For Giddey, its considered a weakness of his game at $25m. For Patrick, its his best attribute at $18m.

[dougthonus]

I think Giddey can lead a top 10 NBA offense because of his pace and I buy his shooting improvement. Much like Lonzo, you are seeing mechanical changes to his form and confidence that comes from putting in the work.

Here's a video of all Josh Giddey made 3s this season. It's in chronological order:

Watch on YouTube

Here's a video of Lonzo shooting prior to his injuries:

Watch on YouTube

I'm not an expert in shot mechanics, so I don't want to pretend to be one. What I would notice is for a guy who has a bit of a push shot (ball is out in front of him with a low release point), he has a very slow release. Most guys using a push shot have a very fast release to compensate for the release point and lack of height, and use it to disguise what they're doing (like Steph Curry strikes me as such a guy, generally low release point, but lightning fast release).

From a footwork perspective, even when he has time he tends to not square up to the basket, his right foot always leads so his left side is always slightly behind him, and he basically never catches and shooting without adjusting his right foot as part of the shot (usually both feet) which is probably the biggest thing slowing him down.

In terms of hand position, I'm not sure its a big problem if it works for him, but his left plays a big role in pushing the shot. Instead of having the right hand center on the ball, he's kind of shooting a bit with both hands, this gives him poor rotation relative to most NBA shooters. It's hard to tell entirely on the video because the quality isn't high enough.

At any rate, the footwork and hand position don't matter really if he's consistent. The biggest thing he needs to be able to do is get the release speed up so he can get shots off in more situations.

[sco]

I think Giddey can lead a top 10 NBA offense because of his pace and I buy his shooting improvement. Much like Lonzo, you are seeing mechanical changes to his form and confidence that comes from putting in the work.

Here's a video of all Josh Giddey made 3s this season. It's in chronological order:

Watch on YouTube

Here's a video of Lonzo shooting prior to his injuries:

Watch on YouTube

I'm not an expert in shot mechanics, so I don't want to pretend to be one. What I would notice is for a guy who has a bit of a push shot (ball is out in front of him with a low release point), he has a very slow release. Most guys using a push shot have a very fast release to compensate for the release point and lack of height, and use it to disguise what they're doing (like Steph Curry strikes me as such a guy, generally low release point, but lightning fast release).

From a footwork perspective, even when he has time he tends to not square up to the basket, his right foot always leads so his left side is always slightly behind him, and he basically never catches and shooting without adjusting his right foot as part of the shot (usually both feet) which is probably the biggest thing slowing him down.

In terms of hand position, I'm not sure its a big problem if it works for him, but his left plays a big role in pushing the shot. Instead of having the right hand center on the ball, he's kind of shooting a bit with both hands, this gives him poor rotation relative to most NBA shooters. It's hard to tell entirely on the video because the quality isn't high enough.

At any rate, the footwork and hand position don't matter really if he's consistent. The biggest thing he needs to be able to do is get the release speed up so he can get shots off in more situations.

I appreciate your work here. Thanks!

I don't disagree with your assessment. I have to say Ball's shot is unorthodox too, but it works for him (except not last season). On Giddey's shot, there's definitely room for form improvement and shot quickness improvement, but in an ideal Bulls world, where Coby and Matas become our 1st and 2nd scoring options, Giddey likely won't ever have the same type of shot pressure as Curry...especially when his ability to score off the drive is such a weapon.