How Many Wins This Year?

[Flopper]

Going with 30 wins. Matas will improve, but he's still very young. Maybe Giddey improves too, but I feel like something between the cold start and hot finish is a more realistic expectation for him.

Expecting regression mainly for these reasons:
- More injuries (Bulls were among healthiest last year)
- Further age related decline from one of the worst starting 5s in the league (and one of the worst big man rotations for that matter).
- Kevin Huerter won't sustain his crazy post all-star shooting

Things like Patrick Williams reversing course from unplayable to something resembling competent 3 and D and/or Zach Collins becoming a serviceable 3P shooter could potentially push them back into play-in contention, but neither of those seems like at this point.

[MrSparkle]

Going with 30 wins. Matas will improve, but he's still very young. Maybe Giddey improves too, but I feel like something between the cold start and hot finish is a more realistic expectation for him.

Expecting regression mainly for these reasons:
- More injuries (Bulls were among healthiest last year)
- Further age related decline from one of the worst starting 5s in the league (and one of the worst big man rotations for that matter).
- Kevin Huerter won't sustain his crazy post all-star shooting

Things like Patrick Williams reversing course from unplayable to something resembling competent 3 and D and/or Zach Collins becoming a serviceable 3P shooter could potentially push them back into play-in contention, but neither of those seems like at this point.

I still see a 35-39w road. We're gonna beat bad teams. Cook in March.

But I agree that we'll see some drops, particularly in 3Ps. Josh, Vuc and Huerter all shot better than career averages at 38%; unlikely they all continue that.

[dougthonus]

If I had a 5 game range, I'd pick 38-42.

[PaKii94]

I'm thinking 40-45 but chose the high range. I think we will be pleasantly surprised this year.

[Dan Z]

If I had a 5 game range, I'd pick 38-42.

That's basically the same as the last three seasons. It's my prediction too.

On a positive note the team is young and has room for improvement (more so than they did in the past). How many 38-42 win seasons will it take before ownership decides that it's time for new management?

[poolshark52]

I actually went with under 29. I think we will be pretty bad again, and finally AK has come to understand tanking isn't the worst thing in the world and we need another high pick to have a chance at another star. Coby and Vuc and Huerter and Ayo all get traded.

[kodo]

You can add Miami to another EC team that will be worse this year, Herro just got surgery with no return timeline.
30 wins for Chicago is an insane Vegas prediction when we mostly play EC teams.

[CROBulls]

You all know who they are, so why are you voting for any other option but 4.)

[HearshotKDS]

I think somewhere between 33-37 wins so I voted in the 35-39 category.

[burlydee]

I’m probably higher on this team than most. I think they could be above.500 for the 1st time in a while. Part of this is how bad the East is. But ppl keep saying the last 20 games of the season were a fluke and …. What if they weren’t?

The Bulls are uniquely positioned to play an uptemp style that I think puts unique pressure on opponents. Giddey and Coby together in the back court presents a unique problem. Teams typically don’t have two guards that fast with the ball capable of initiating the offense. I really believe ppl flat out don’t like guarding Coby for a game. Just too much go go go at the 2 guard. Bringing Tre and Ayo off the bench just ups the speed. With the added bonus that each guard but Giddey is among the best turnover guys for their position. It’s a huge stylistic advantage.

Plus Ayo is in a contract year. Coby is in a contract year. This is the year I think both put in their best work.

I think Vuc is positioned for another good season. The Bulls guards are better passers than past years and he doesn’t have to compete with Demar for touches. That drove the resurgence in my opinion. Collins is probably the backup you can have and proved more capable defensively than in the past. I weirdly think his health is a key so fingers crossed.

Okoro for 75 games at 28 minutes a night is better than Lonzo for 30 at 15 minutes a night. He’s an underrated point of attack defender that should take heat off Coby and Giddey.

Perhaps most important, Buz is a year older, in a great position to grow, and has a clear and defined role. Sure there will be ups and downs but really believe Bulls have a top young talent in a situation where he can thrive. Excited to see where it can go.

I think they win 41-43 games. No reason they can’t be better than Miami, Boston, Indy or dare Isay Milwaukee? Even if they aren’t they win more than they had against those teams which will push their record up. Not sure how meaningful it is long term but could make next year more fun.

[Infinity2152]

Nightmare scenario: Bulls trade Vucevic for scraps before the season, Collins manages to stay heathy and plays great, even hits some threes, Coby plays great 26 pts/gm, Huerter plays great, we're the sixth seed. Draft pick #21. So many teams with injuries and we're deep if not much top talent, it could happen.

AK decides to re-sign all three. Collins, starting center $25-$30 mil AAV. White, starting SG $40-$50 mill AAV. Huerter sixth man or starting SF, $20 mill AAV.

With 60-70% of the team being free agents and this summer having multiple teams with cap space in those amounts, Coby will be one of the top free agents this summer. If they trade Vuc now, start Collins and he plays well for a season, I could see them offering him a contract as soon as Coby is signed. Huerter could be an in demand free agent, teams love shooters. The more we win this year, the harder it will be this summer.

Alternatively, we keep Vuc till the deadline, Collins on the bench. Vucevic scoring 20pts/gm keeps Coby down to 22/gm instead of 26. Vucevic puts up great numbers, but his defense keeps us a play-in team. We extend Collins during the season 3 yrs/ team option 3rd year $14 mill AAV. Around the mid level, perfectly okay with paying Collins that much to be our backup center. Likely be cheaper to resign Huerter if we're losing more, lock him up to Tre Jones or slightly higher, max $10-12 mill AAV.

Now trade Coby and Vucevic at the deadline for that star. My preferred target is Bam Adebayo. Hopefully Kal El Ware plays great and the Heat want to clear some cap and reset. I'm calling the Heat all year, bugging them. I'll add a 2027 top 8 protected first. the Heat are slick, maybe they send Coby elsewhere for assets, let Vuc finish the season and expire, clear some cap and add another first. we get a lottery pick in 2026, number 10.

Giddey $25 mill, Tre Jones $8 mill
Huerter $12 mill, Rookie $8 mill
Okoro $11.8 mill, Noa Essengue $5.7 mill
Buzelis $5.7 mill, Williams $18 mill
Adebayo $48.7 mill, Collins $14 mill, Jalen Smith $9.4 mill

Add $8 mill for our lottery pick rookie.166.3 mill. Just trade Jalen Smith for a second or two, teams will have cap space and Collins is our backup. Down to $152.3 mill. Salary cap is projected at $166. Luxury tax is projected at $200 mill. First apron at $209 mill. For me a contender needs to be willing to at least pay up to the tax, so $200 mill.

Giddey, Buzelis and Bam have three spots locked up. We need to fill two spots with a combination of Essengue, #10 pick guard, Williams, Huerter, Okoro, and $48 mill under the tax, plus the picks from the Smith trade. I like those odds.

Before anybody says Miami will never do it, Bam's contract is jumping from $37 mill to $47.7 mil and they have Ware. They might. I would pay that much for Bam because I think he's a multiplier on defense and maybe the ideal center to pair with Giddey. You could adda lot of players to Giddey, Mata, Bam and win a lot of games.

[kodo]

If Coby averages 26 ppg at age 24 he's a max player. 26 is SGA, Tatum, KD, Brunson, Ant, Cade...that's your entire list of guard/wings capable of that.
Booker barely misses at 25 and he gets $75M.

Not sure if that's terrible, if Coby is max you're safe in extending him a max offer and as his Bird Rights team we have the best offer.

[cocktailswith_2short]

Well be good enough to avoid a top draft pick that's about it .

[DASMACKDOWN]

30 wins for Chicago is an insane Vegas prediction when we mostly play EC teams.

The one thing for certain that despite all the analytics they have, a lot of it still has built in bias. How they performed the previous year and expectations etc.

They had is at 28.5 for most bookings last year.

In my opinion, unless the Bulls have a major injury to Coby, Giddey, etc. I cant see the Bulls winning 28 or less games. That would indicate a colossal failure incident in my opinion.

If you are winning 28 or less games, it means you are a legit bad team.

Bulls have never been a legit bad team since the first year AKME got here. Anything over 30 wins is considered a "mid" team. Something the Bulls have been through all of the AKME tenure.

So getting 39 wins and then dropping to 28 or less wins can only be considered a colossal failure mostly due to injuries not talent. Think Sixers.

On top of that you only have like 4 legit East teams this year and the rest are in a state of unknown or clearly weaker.

[drosestruts]

Celtics, Pacers, Bucks, and Heat are all trending down - some intentionally, some unintentionally

Teams that finished below us that could be better:

Atlanta - nice on paper, but Kristaps has to actually play
76ers - same as above but multiple people

[Chi town]

Bam def not worth 47M.

I think Coby is a good bet to improve as he adds to his game every year. Also think his D looks much better with a defensive C.

Only way Coby doesn’t resign is if AK gets blown away with an offer.

I see these Bulls as a 30ish win team if they trade Coby.

If they keep Coby they will be a few wins over .500 simply due to depth and second year in the pace system.

Think it’s more likely they pop and look like the Pacers of two years ago then regress and tank.

[Chi town]

Celtics, Pacers, Bucks, and Heat are all trending down - some intentionally, some unintentionally

Teams that finished below us that could be better:

Atlanta - nice on paper, but Kristaps has to actually play
76ers - same as above but multiple people

I don’t believe in ATL at all. Zinger always hurt. Trae isn’t a winner.

Don’t believe in Sixers health or young talent either. Vets too old and brittle and youngsters too green.

[DASMACKDOWN]

I don’t believe in ATL at all. Zinger always hurt. Trae isn’t a winner.

Don’t believe in Sixers health or young talent either. Vets too old and brittle and youngsters too green.

I dont think its just because they got KP.

Its more or less because they get back a healthy Jalen Johnson. Before he went down, Atlanta was a top 4 seed and he was well on his way to being a first time allstar.

If he returns to form, getting KP is only icing.

At worst they should be a 5 seed fighting Orlando for division winner.

Don’t believe in Sixers health or young talent either. Vets too old and brittle and youngsters too green.

I just don't believe they will be perpetually injured. Even if Embiid plays 50 games, that's still enough to be better than us.

[Chi town]

I don’t believe in ATL at all. Zinger always hurt. Trae isn’t a winner.

Don’t believe in Sixers health or young talent either. Vets too old and brittle and youngsters too green.

I dont think its just because they got KP.

Its more or less because they get back a healthy Jalen Johnson. Before he went down, Atlanta was a top 4 seed and he was well on his way to being a first time allstar.

If he returns to form, getting KP is only icing.

At worst they should be a 5 seed fighting Orlando for division winner.

Don’t believe in Sixers health or young talent either. Vets too old and brittle and youngsters too green.

I just don't believe they will be perpetually injured. Even if Embiid plays 50 games, that's still enough to be better than us.

What type of Embiid for 50 games though?

How many games from PG? What type of PG. He looked old and cooked last year. Game keeps getting faster which makes it harder for older guys.

Maxey VJ and McCain are going to be better than us?

I like Jalen Johnson but he’s not that good yet. May take him time ti get back up to speed. They lost Hunter for Lavert and NAW. Hunter was a big contributor for them.

[drosestruts]

I don’t believe in ATL at all. Zinger always hurt. Trae isn’t a winner.

Don’t believe in Sixers health or young talent either. Vets too old and brittle and youngsters too green.

I dont think its just because they got KP.

Its more or less because they get back a healthy Jalen Johnson. Before he went down, Atlanta was a top 4 seed and he was well on his way to being a first time allstar.

If he returns to form, getting KP is only icing.

At worst they should be a 5 seed fighting Orlando for division winner.

Don’t believe in Sixers health or young talent either. Vets too old and brittle and youngsters too green.

I just don't believe they will be perpetually injured. Even if Embiid plays 50 games, that's still enough to be better than us.

What type of Embiid for 50 games though?

How many games from PG? What type of PG. He looked old and cooked last year. Game keeps getting faster which makes it harder for older guys.

Maxey VJ and McCain are going to be better than us?

I like Jalen Johnson but he’s not that good yet. May take him time ti get back up to speed. They lost Hunter for Lavert and NAW. Hunter was a big contributor for them.

Jalen Johnson is one of those players I feel like this board shows love to when they're on a different team but if they were a Bull we'd be super critical of them.

Yes Jalen Johnson was scoring 19 points per game and is very athletic and all that fun stuff. But he shoots 31% from 3 and has a TS% of 57%


Player A: 56.6% 2PFG%, 31.2% 3PFG%, 74.6% FT%, 56.9% TS%, 22.5% USG%

Player B: 58.2% 2PFG%, 32.7% 3PFG%, 78.9% FT%, 57.1% TS%. 12.9 USG%

Spoiler:

A is Johnson, B is Julian Phillips

Jalen Johnson is just a high volume High Usage Julian Phillips