2025 Playoff Chase & Standings Watch

[vaff87]

Magic number for the division is now 6 over the Yankees and 4 over the Red Sox. Magic number over the Tigers for the #1 seed is 7. 11 games to go.

[Randle McMurphy]

No change in collapse status. Still on hold.

[tecumseh18]

ESPN with a data point in favour of the collapse theory: Jeff Coughman/Chokeman

Biggest 2025 success, failure for all 30 MLB teams

.....

Toronto Blue Jays

Biggest success: Ernie Clement

... there is something reminiscent of Clement on Toronto to Zobrist's roles with championship teams in Kansas City and Chicago last decade.

Biggest failure: Jeff Hoffman

It's hard to believe Toronto's record in close games is as good as it is given Hoffman's up-and-down season as the Blue Jays' primary closer. Hoffman has 30 saves but he has blown seven games and somehow has a 9-7 win-loss record, which isn't the kind of thing you expect to see from a 2025 closer. Heck, if he blows a couple of more saves that the Jays rescue him from, he could tie for Toronto's team lead in wins. Seriously, though, Hoffman has been barely replacement level this season. He has been on a nice roll of late, until he gave up a ninth-inning homer to Houston's Yainer Diaz that resulted in his seventh loss last Wednesday. If Toronto's feel-good season is going to last deep into October, the Jays really need Hoffman to be part of the happy tidings.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46269338/mlb-2025-30-teams-biggest-failure-success-season#tor

[Randle McMurphy]

Yankees about to close out the trash Twins to move 4 back once again. That easy schedule now paying dividends.

The collapse is officially back on.

[dh_45]

If they can't handle Tampa Bay good luck going far in the playoffs

[Randle McMurphy]

If they can't handle Tampa Bay good luck going far in the playoffs

Even the greatest Jays teams in history wouldn’t beat Tampa Bay, don’t think it says much

Unfortunately the Jays have 4 more games left against them while the Yankees are playing more trash opponents like the White Sox and Orioles. Long way to go yet.

[Asianiac_24]

Even if the Jays go 5-5 the rest of the way, the Yankees have to win out at 10-0 to win the division. I don’t see it and I hope I’m not wrong

[dh_45]

Tampa hits .301 vs Bassitt

[dchoye]

Talk about collapse. Guardians sweep the Tigers and making it very interesting in the central only 3.5 back

Plus they play each other again in another 3 game series in a week

[JN]

Still a little stress with the bye, but with Boston falling apart Wildcard #1 (and 3 home games in round 1) seems to be sewn up and the worst case scenario.

[Randle McMurphy]

Yankees already crushing that scrub Povich on the Orioles as you'd expect. Such is the benefit of playing the worst schedule in the league to finish the season. Only a few innings away now from being 3 games back.

The collapse is here.

[Randle McMurphy]

As the Yankees complete their blowout to renew the collapse, I’ve just noticed that the magic number to make the playoffs may actually be 1?

Given Boston, Cleveland and Detroit all play each other, I’m pretty sure the maximum wins that each of them can collectively get is 90. We are at 89 and have the tiebreaker over each of them as well.

It’s being advertised as 3 but I don’t think they’re taking that into account.

[Potential]

Rogers with a braindead move lol imagine getting ur hopes up way too high and screwing the whole country into not being able to see the team clinch a division. Could be a big jinx with the Yankees easy schedule and us having 3 more guaranteed Ls against the devil

[Randle McMurphy]

Rogers with a braindead move lol imagine getting ur hopes up way too high and screwing the whole country into not being able to see the team clinch a division. Could be a big jinx with the Yankees easy schedule and us having 3 more guaranteed Ls against the devil

2 of the most important games of our season may be on AppleTV rather than one, it’s a pretty horrible gamble

[canz55]

Would be nice to have Bo back...

[JN]

As the Yankees complete their blowout to renew the collapse, I’ve just noticed that the magic number to make the playoffs may actually be 1?

Given Boston, Cleveland and Detroit all play each other, I’m pretty sure the maximum wins that each of them can collectively get is 90. We are at 89 and have the tiebreaker over each of them as well.

It’s being advertised as 3 but I don’t think they’re taking that into account.

Good catch. It's sort of 1, but not really 1 at the same time. It sort of depends on the "1".

A loss by one of those teams clinches nothing. But if the 1 is a Toronto win tomorrow, you are correct that we clinch a playoff spot. You are correct that is not being reported. I expect it will start gathering some steam in the media tomorrow as they hype things up.

[JN]

As the Yankees complete their blowout to renew the collapse, I’ve just noticed that the magic number to make the playoffs may actually be 1?

Given Boston, Cleveland and Detroit all play each other, I’m pretty sure the maximum wins that each of them can collectively get is 90. We are at 89 and have the tiebreaker over each of them as well.

It’s being advertised as 3 but I don’t think they’re taking that into account.

Good catch. It's sort of 1, but not really 1 at the same time. It sort of depends on the "1".

A loss by one of those teams clinches nothing. But if the 1 is a Toronto win tomorrow, you are correct that we clinch a playoff spot. You are correct that is not being reported. I expect it will start gathering some steam in the media tomorrow as they hype things up.

Looked into this further. I don't think we are guaranteed to clinch with a win tomorrow. Feel free to correct me.

If Toronto and Cleveland both get to 90 wins, it would seem that Cleveland likely holds the tiebreaker in this scenario, which is Intra Division Record, since we would have piled up losses vs AL East to get there. The season record between Toronto and Cleveland is 3-3.

[Randle McMurphy]

As the Yankees complete their blowout to renew the collapse, I’ve just noticed that the magic number to make the playoffs may actually be 1?

Given Boston, Cleveland and Detroit all play each other, I’m pretty sure the maximum wins that each of them can collectively get is 90. We are at 89 and have the tiebreaker over each of them as well.

It’s being advertised as 3 but I don’t think they’re taking that into account.

Good catch. It's sort of 1, but not really 1 at the same time. It sort of depends on the "1".

A loss by one of those teams clinches nothing. But if the 1 is a Toronto win tomorrow, you are correct that we clinch a playoff spot. You are correct that is not being reported. I expect it will start gathering some steam in the media tomorrow as they hype things up.

Looked into this further. I don't think we are guaranteed to clinch with a win tomorrow. Feel free to correct me.

If Toronto and Cleveland both get to 90 wins, it would seem that Cleveland likely holds the tiebreaker in this scenario, which is Intra Division Record, since we would have piled up losses vs AL East to get there. The season record between Toronto and Cleveland is 3-3.

Still need Boston to win 91 too.

And if Cleveland wins 90 and Boston wins 91, the most Detroit can win is 90.

I believe Cleveland wins the Central in that scenario and the Jays knock out Detroit.

There are also other 4 way tiebreakers with like Seattle and Houston that I haven’t taken the time to consider though. Not sure if that puts a wrench in it.

[JN]

Good catch. It's sort of 1, but not really 1 at the same time. It sort of depends on the "1".

A loss by one of those teams clinches nothing. But if the 1 is a Toronto win tomorrow, you are correct that we clinch a playoff spot. You are correct that is not being reported. I expect it will start gathering some steam in the media tomorrow as they hype things up.

Looked into this further. I don't think we are guaranteed to clinch with a win tomorrow. Feel free to correct me.

If Toronto and Cleveland both get to 90 wins, it would seem that Cleveland likely holds the tiebreaker in this scenario, which is Intra Division Record, since we would have piled up losses vs AL East to get there. The season record between Toronto and Cleveland is 3-3.

Still need Boston to win 91 too.

And if Cleveland wins 90 and Boston wins 91, the most Detroit can win is 90.

I believe Cleveland wins the Central in that scenario and the Jays knock out Detroit.

There are also other 4 way tiebreakers with like Seattle and Houston that I haven’t taken the time to consider though. Not sure if that puts a wrench in it.

Not that any of these scenarios would ever happen, but they are meaningful in the discussion of whether we could proclaim ourselves clinched tonight. My conclusion is that if someone even more nerdy than me dug into the bolded section below further today, they would be able to prove that we clinched with our 90th win tonight


So in summary, as you initiated above
#1) I agree that for all 3 of Detroit, Boston and Cleveland to hit 90 wins, it means one of the teams gets 91 wins and the other two teams could only get 90 wins. That is the only way that all three get to 90 wins. That brings in 3 way tie-breakers
#2) For 3 way tie-breakers with any permutation of those above teams for WC#2 and WC#3, we are deemed to be either WC#2 or WC#3.

#3) So then as you mentioned the only potential wrench is a 4 way tie, since there will have to be 3 of the above teams at 90 wins with either one of Houston or Seattle.

Toronto is 7-6 vs Boston (assuming swept), 3-3 vs Cleveland, 4-3 vs Detroit, 2-4 vs Houston, 4-2 vs Seattle (Our record vs those teams is 20-18).
Also to note
-Houston is 4-2 against us, but 6-12 against the 3 other teams (Boston, Cleveland, Detroit)
Seattle is 2-4 against us, but is 11-7 against those 3 other teams.

Problem is I can't line up the records for all the teams head to head because the records for Boston, Cleveland and Detroit is not known. That being said due to our records being above .500 against these teams in aggregate, I can't see any scenario where we would not be one of the 3 teams getting in, in a 4 team for 3 spot scenario. We are only 2-4 vs Houston, but they are 6-12 vs everybody else so we got them too. If somebody worked out all the scenarios where two of Detroit, Boston and Cleveland got to 90 wins, I am certain we would pass the 4 teams for 3 spots tiebreaker.

[Parataxis]

We can clinch today if the Jays win and two of Guardians, Red Sox, and Tigers lose.

The Tigers play an hour before us, Boston is at the same time, and the Guardians go a half hour after our first pitch.

Hopefully we'll know that we're in the post-season before bedtime.