Bears thread 13

[jnrjr79]

I think we are on the brink of being sellers. Probably a good thing our bye week is so early.

I'd say one more loss before the Bye week and it is time to put a bunch of folks on the block. (Too bad we can't put Poles on the block)

It is about to be shoot out time with this banged up D. Lots of yards through the air (and sacks) when playing from behind.

If we're 0-4 heading into the Bye week I'd definitely in the camp of dumping some vets. DJ Moore for one. Rome Odunze is now WR1 for all practical purposes. Moore makes too much money for a WR2. I'd take any reasonable offer. Getting rid of him opens things up for Luther Burden. Edmunds is as good as gone. Not much or a cap hit if we dumped him. If he can get us a 5th or 6th rounder all the better, but I doubt it. And finally Kmet. Since we don't know how to use him and Caleb can't seem to spot him downfield he's a luxury we can afford to move on from. For all the projections of two TE sets productiom from the TE position has been nonexistent for whatever reasons.

Only push back i have is trading moore. I don't think we get enough in return by moving him. and even if he is WR2, our WR1 is still on the rookie deal. I don't think playing time for other WRs and a 3rd is worth moving moore. Maybe in the off-season.

The other thing here is the run game is looking pretty suspect right now and you may want to keep Moore around since they're trying to use him a bit there.

Of course, I'd happily move on for a decent draft pick.

[Dresden]

Ben Johnson on Caleb's performance last week: "I did see significant growth," Johnson said. "It’s not perfect yet. There’s still a number of plays where our eyes aren’t quite in the right position or we’re holding onto the ball just a tick longer than what we’re coaching. But I did see tremendous growth in terms of going through the progression. There were a few times there where we had to get to number three or four in the read and he was trusting his feet and his footwork and was able to get there. I did think he got better from Week 1 to Week 2. I’m encouraged by what I saw and I’m hopeful that we’ll continue to see another leap here this week."

[Dresden]

There's still a lot of football to be played. Things can change in a hurry. Our run game was not bad last game, but when we fell behind we were forced to pass too much and that's when things really went south.

[poolshark52]

There's still a lot of football to be played. Things can change in a hurry. Our run game was not bad last game, but when we fell behind we were forced to pass too much and that's when things really went south.

Yep, don't even have to face the Packers till later in the year.

[dougthonus]

There's still a lot of football to be played. Things can change in a hurry. Our run game was not bad last game, but when we fell behind we were forced to pass too much and that's when things really went south.

90% of what I care about this season is finding out whether Caleb is the guy or not, and he looked much better this week than week 1, so I'm happy for that. I don't see almost any hope of anything turning around for the season though. Tough schedule and our defense looks like it will be bottom 1/3rd of the league. Our offense may get sharper, but unlikely it's top 1/3rd, and that leaves us as a below average team starting from an 0-2 hole with a brutal schedule. Looks like a recipe for a 4-6 win season.

[Dresden]

QBR thru week 2:

13) Michael Penix
15) Drake Maye
16) Caleb
22) Trevor Lawrence
24) Bo Nix
25) Justin Fields
26) Jayden Daniels
29) Bryce Young
30) CJ Stroud
32) JJ McCarthy

[Chicago-Bull-E]

QBR thru week 2:

13) Michael Penix
15) Drake Maye
16) Caleb
22) Trevor Lawrence
24) Bo Nix
25) Justin Fields
26) Jayden Daniels
29) Bryce Young
30) CJ Stroud
32) JJ McCarthy

Another things that’s interesting is I believe all the guys in the top 10 are on their 2nd or 3rd contracts, all older QBs, guys that have been doing it a while. (Maybe Love and Purdy the youngest).

Would love Caleb to sneak into the top 10, and I think he can, but the list right now shows experience has mattered a lot so far.

[Dresden]

There's still a lot of football to be played. Things can change in a hurry. Our run game was not bad last game, but when we fell behind we were forced to pass too much and that's when things really went south.

90% of what I care about this season is finding out whether Caleb is the guy or not, and he looked much better this week than week 1, so I'm happy for that. I don't see almost any hope of anything turning around for the season though. Tough schedule and our defense looks like it will be bottom 1/3rd of the league. Our offense may get sharper, but unlikely it's top 1/3rd, and that leaves us as a below average team starting from an 0-2 hole with a brutal schedule. Looks like a recipe for a 4-6 win season.

I thought he did too. Most likely this year will end up being an audition for who is worth keeping and who needs replacing. But you never know. We could easily be 1-1 right now, and our loss being to a team that won 14 games last year. Things wouldn't look so dire then. This next game will tell a lot- the Cowboys have a great offense, and we could easily get blown out again if the offense can't keep up. It sure doesn't look like our defense is up to stopping anybody.

[dice]

**** it. Caleb and two 1st for burrow

As often as Burrow gets injured I wouldn't trade Caleb for him even straight up. And Burrow makes too much money. His annual average salary is $55 Million a year. That's too much money to pay a guy who watches in street clothes half the time. Some guys are just snake bit with injuries. Burrow is for sure. Our Tevin Jenkins was the same way. And we have other guys not playing to their salary costs due to injury. Lots of soft tissue injuries this year too. Is our training staff missing something? Do they not have the players stretching before practices? Groins and hamstrings have pretty much killed our season.

i don't think that "snake bit" qualifies as a pre-existing condition

[dice]

QBR thru week 2:

13) Michael Penix
15) Drake Maye
16) Caleb
22) Trevor Lawrence
24) Bo Nix
25) Justin Fields
26) Jayden Daniels
29) Bryce Young
30) CJ Stroud
32) JJ McCarthy

Another things that’s interesting is I believe all the guys in the top 10 are on their 2nd or 3rd contracts, all older QBs, guys that have been doing it a while. (Maybe Love and Purdy the youngest).

Would love Caleb to sneak into the top 10, and I think he can, but the list right now shows experience has mattered a lot so far.

jayden's current placement suggests that maybe we should temper our analysis at this stage

[dice]

There's still a lot of football to be played. Things can change in a hurry. Our run game was not bad last game, but when we fell behind we were forced to pass too much and that's when things really went south.

90% of what I care about this season is finding out whether Caleb is the guy or not, and he looked much better this week than week 1, so I'm happy for that. I don't see almost any hope of anything turning around for the season though. Tough schedule and our defense looks like it will be bottom 1/3rd of the league. Our offense may get sharper, but unlikely it's top 1/3rd, and that leaves us as a below average team starting from an 0-2 hole with a brutal schedule. Looks like a recipe for a 4-6 win season.

current projection is 6.4 to 6.5 wins. only 7 teams worse, which means #8 pick projection

question is at what point we pivot to next season. my feeling is it should be when chances of making playoffs slip to 2% (not a totally random number - see red area of curve below). that won't happen for any team until week 3 is over. bears at 6%. home loss to cowboys might do the trick

unfortunately, even if it's glaringly obvious to do so, i can't see poles and BJ being amenable to a tank/selloff. it'll have to wait until at least the deadline

[dougthonus]

I thought he did too. Most likely this year will end up being an audition for who is worth keeping and who needs replacing. But you never know. We could easily be 1-1 right now, and our loss being to a team that won 14 games last year. Things wouldn't look so dire then. This next game will tell a lot- the Cowboys have a great offense, and we could easily get blown out again if the offense can't keep up. It sure doesn't look like our defense is up to stopping anybody.

We'll see what happens, but the Vikings look like they stink this year. It doesn't matter that they were good last year. McCarthy is in the running for worst starting QB in the NFL.

[jnrjr79]

There's still a lot of football to be played. Things can change in a hurry. Our run game was not bad last game, but when we fell behind we were forced to pass too much and that's when things really went south.

90% of what I care about this season is finding out whether Caleb is the guy or not, and he looked much better this week than week 1, so I'm happy for that. I don't see almost any hope of anything turning around for the season though. Tough schedule and our defense looks like it will be bottom 1/3rd of the league. Our offense may get sharper, but unlikely it's top 1/3rd, and that leaves us as a below average team starting from an 0-2 hole with a brutal schedule. Looks like a recipe for a 4-6 win season.

I thought he did too. Most likely this year will end up being an audition for who is worth keeping and who needs replacing. But you never know. We could easily be 1-1 right now, and our loss being to a team that won 14 games last year. Things wouldn't look so dire then. This next game will tell a lot- the Cowboys have a great offense, and we could easily get blown out again if the offense can't keep up. It sure doesn't look like our defense is up to stopping anybody.

I think these next 4 weeks will be pretty telling about what the Bears are this year. You have the Cowboys, Raiders, Commanders, and Saints. If you pick up 2 or 3 wins, then that's somewhat encouraging. If you win 0 or 1, then I think this is pretty much a lost season other than for Caleb developmental purposes.

[panthermark]

I do wonder if DJ (and Kmet) are on the block? It is almost comical how badly Poles has mis-managed this situation.

2023 (both played 17 games) - DJ and Kmet combined for 226 targets, 169 receptions, 2,083 yards and 14 TD's
2024 (both played 17 games) - DJ and Kmet combined for 195 targets, 145 receptions, 1,440 yards and 10 TD's
2025 (both played 2 games so far) - DJ and Kmet combined for 19 targets, 11 receptions, 174 yards and 0 TD's

Getting DJ in the original trade was as awesome move by Poles. Having to sell low just over 2 seasons later means things really went off the rails. The production from Kmet and DJ have fallen off of a cliff during their PRIME.

Luckily (I guess) other teams have big injuries, so the Bears are not fully out of it yet. Next few games will be telling.

[jnrjr79]

I do wonder if DJ (and Kmet) are on the block? It is almost comical how badly Poles has mis-managed this situation.

2023 (both played 17 games) - DJ and Kmet combined for 226 targets, 169 receptions, 2,083 yards and 14 TD's
2024 (both played 17 games) - DJ and Kmet combined for 195 targets, 145 receptions, 1,440 yards and 10 TD's
2025 (both played 2 games so far) - DJ and Kmet combined for 19 targets, 11 receptions, 174 yards and 0 TD's

Getting DJ in the original trade was as awesome move by Poles. Having to sell low just over 2 seasons later means things really went off the rails. The production from Kmet and DJ have fallen off of a cliff during their PRIME.

Luckily (I guess) other teams have big injuries, so the Bears are not fully out of it yet. Next few games will be telling.

Honestly, this seems more like "Caleb loves Rome" than anything else. Caleb threw for 207 yards. 128 of those went to Odunze (and it could have been more in light of a couple of late drops). There's just not much left for anyone else!

[Dresden]

I do wonder if DJ (and Kmet) are on the block? It is almost comical how badly Poles has mis-managed this situation.

2023 (both played 17 games) - DJ and Kmet combined for 226 targets, 169 receptions, 2,083 yards and 14 TD's
2024 (both played 17 games) - DJ and Kmet combined for 195 targets, 145 receptions, 1,440 yards and 10 TD's
2025 (both played 2 games so far) - DJ and Kmet combined for 19 targets, 11 receptions, 174 yards and 0 TD's

Getting DJ in the original trade was as awesome move by Poles. Having to sell low just over 2 seasons later means things really went off the rails. The production from Kmet and DJ have fallen off of a cliff during their PRIME.

Luckily (I guess) other teams have big injuries, so the Bears are not fully out of it yet. Next few games will be telling.

Honestly, this seems more like "Caleb loves Rome" than anything else. Caleb threw for 207 yards. 128 of those went to Odunze (and it could have been more in light of a couple of late drops). There's just not much left for anyone else!

All the Moore reason to see if we can turn DJ and Kmet into some lineman somehow. I think Rome/Luther/Zacheus/Colston would be a great receiving corps.

[Dresden]

90% of what I care about this season is finding out whether Caleb is the guy or not, and he looked much better this week than week 1, so I'm happy for that. I don't see almost any hope of anything turning around for the season though. Tough schedule and our defense looks like it will be bottom 1/3rd of the league. Our offense may get sharper, but unlikely it's top 1/3rd, and that leaves us as a below average team starting from an 0-2 hole with a brutal schedule. Looks like a recipe for a 4-6 win season.

I thought he did too. Most likely this year will end up being an audition for who is worth keeping and who needs replacing. But you never know. We could easily be 1-1 right now, and our loss being to a team that won 14 games last year. Things wouldn't look so dire then. This next game will tell a lot- the Cowboys have a great offense, and we could easily get blown out again if the offense can't keep up. It sure doesn't look like our defense is up to stopping anybody.

I think these next 4 weeks will be pretty telling about what the Bears are this year. You have the Cowboys, Raiders, Commanders, and Saints. If you pick up 2 or 3 wins, then that's somewhat encouraging. If you win 0 or 1, then I think this is pretty much a lost season other than for Caleb developmental purposes.

We should have at least a 50/50 chance v. Saints and Raiders. Anything less than 2 wins out of that bunch is a disappointment

[panthermark]

I do wonder if DJ (and Kmet) are on the block? It is almost comical how badly Poles has mis-managed this situation.

2023 (both played 17 games) - DJ and Kmet combined for 226 targets, 169 receptions, 2,083 yards and 14 TD's
2024 (both played 17 games) - DJ and Kmet combined for 195 targets, 145 receptions, 1,440 yards and 10 TD's
2025 (both played 2 games so far) - DJ and Kmet combined for 19 targets, 11 receptions, 174 yards and 0 TD's

Getting DJ in the original trade was as awesome move by Poles. Having to sell low just over 2 seasons later means things really went off the rails. The production from Kmet and DJ have fallen off of a cliff during their PRIME.

Luckily (I guess) other teams have big injuries, so the Bears are not fully out of it yet. Next few games will be telling.

Honestly, this seems more like "Caleb loves Rome" than anything else. Caleb threw for 207 yards. 128 of those went to Odunze (and it could have been more in light of a couple of late drops). There's just not much left for anyone else!

It is odd.
Odunze has 20 targets this season.
Zac has 12
DJ has 11
Swift has 8
Kmet has 6
Kyle has 4
Loveland and LBIII have 3

I wanted KA traded mid-season last year because the season was sliding off the rails, and it seemed like CW focused on KA more than anyone else....which didn't make sense in the long run because DJ, Odunze and Kmet were much younger and signed long term. I can't complain about the Odunze connection, but the overall production does not match the talent in the WR room. I don't know if it is the offense or CW, but it seems like al lot is being left on the table with Moore and Kmet.

(And to add, Poles never traded KA, and he ended up walking for nothing after trading a pick for him and getting a 5 win season because Poles has ZERO foresight).

[fleet]

Situation inside Halas Hall has gotten very uncomfortable for Poles. One source described: “Walking on eggshells”
“People are pissed”

Sports Mockery fwiw

Read on Twitter

[jnrjr79]

I do wonder if DJ (and Kmet) are on the block? It is almost comical how badly Poles has mis-managed this situation.

2023 (both played 17 games) - DJ and Kmet combined for 226 targets, 169 receptions, 2,083 yards and 14 TD's
2024 (both played 17 games) - DJ and Kmet combined for 195 targets, 145 receptions, 1,440 yards and 10 TD's
2025 (both played 2 games so far) - DJ and Kmet combined for 19 targets, 11 receptions, 174 yards and 0 TD's

Getting DJ in the original trade was as awesome move by Poles. Having to sell low just over 2 seasons later means things really went off the rails. The production from Kmet and DJ have fallen off of a cliff during their PRIME.

Luckily (I guess) other teams have big injuries, so the Bears are not fully out of it yet. Next few games will be telling.

Honestly, this seems more like "Caleb loves Rome" than anything else. Caleb threw for 207 yards. 128 of those went to Odunze (and it could have been more in light of a couple of late drops). There's just not much left for anyone else!

It is odd.
Odunze has 20 targets this season.
Zac has 12
DJ has 11
Swift has 8
Kmet has 6
Kyle has 4
Loveland and LBIII have 3

I wanted KA traded mid-season last year because the season was sliding off the rails, and it seemed like CW focused on KA more than anyone else....which didn't make sense in the long run because DJ, Odunze and Kmet were much younger and signed long term. I can't complain about the Odunze connection, but the overall production does not match the talent in the WR room. I don't know if it is the offense or CW, but it seems like al lot is being left on the table with Moore and Kmet.

(And to add, Poles never traded KA, and he ended up walking for nothing after trading a pick for him and getting a 5 win season because Poles has ZERO foresight).

The Bears have played 2 games against really good defenses while implementing a brand new system with a 2nd year quarterback. I just don't know what conclusions we can draw yet about the balance/production. There are some softer defenses coming up that should theoretically give us a better sense of how the offense is coming along. I still have some optimism there. Now, the defense...well...