Cam Whitmore

[dckingsfan]

Las Vegas has us as at 21.5 wins. So there is that... guessing bottom 4 or 5. We have no appreciable front court.

True. Both Valanciunas and Richaun Holmes played solid for us up front last year. We are relying on all 3 of Sarr Vukcevic and Bagley to properly suck. Fair bet, even with improvement.

Thing is in the 3 ball era we have seen it is a high variance strategy. There are nights when it just falls in. No team has shown the ability to really defend the 3. So if there’s a reasonable and slight improvement in the 3FG % of Sarr and George (who shot both a lot and poorly from outside) and we now added players who other teams actually have to guard, then there will be nights or strings of games when the team is hot. One of those three will be unconscious and in a groove. Someone will be open outside.

Contract year for Bagley. Add Middleton instead of Kuzma. Play Champagnie instead of Kuzma. Healthy CJ = Poole. Improvement of last years rookies.

I also think more teams will be tanking this year. The pool of top players looks deep and worth it.

Just saying last year we were one game winner away from the worst record in the league. I dint think that’s us this year. While we played hard all year we didn’t have the offense to get back into games when we fell behind. This year we’ve at least got a shot at doing so.

Yep, I think we are saying the same thing. There will be some games when we get hot and win. We are still going to have lots of games where we get blown out due to our defense.

21.5 puts us at the 3rd worst record (Utah and Brooklyn worse). Charlotte, New Orleans, Phoenix and Chicago could join the ultimate bottom feeder list.

If Keefe wanted to win and played the vets big minutes and also played Sarr in a PF role more, we could probably crack the 25-30 win... but that isn't going to happen.

What does this mean for Cam? Lots of PT along with the other youngsters.

[nate33]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Cam will push Bilal into a reserve role unless Bilal shows a new-found aggressiveness this year.

I'm still not seeing it.

My guess is Middleton comes off the bench (or is hurt enough that he'll rarely start). So the starting forwards will be two among Cam, Bilal and Kyshawn. My money is on Cam and Bilal. If nothing else, they are closer to the end of their rookie deals so there's less time to evaluate them before they become free agents.

[dckingsfan]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Cam will push Bilal into a reserve role unless Bilal shows a new-found aggressiveness this year.

I'm still not seeing it.

My guess is Middleton comes off the bench (or is hurt enough that he'll rarely start). So the starting forwards will be two among Cam, Bilal and Kyshawn. My money is on Cam and Bilal. If nothing else, they are closer to the end of their rookie deals so there's less time to evaluate them before they become free agents.

What is interesting to me is that to understand the rotations we need to understand what Dawkins has conveyed to Keefe about how he will be judged for this season.

I am "guessing" that it won't be about wins. Rather it will be about player development, player evaluation, showcasing the older players and staying competitive in games (so as not to completely lose the fan base). What order that Keefe will be judged will also be material. But I could be easily wrong on this.

[payitforward]

....If Keefe wanted to win and played the vets big minutes and also played Sarr in a PF role more, we could probably crack the 25-30 win....

Playing McCollum "big minutes" would be unlikely to add wins. He was terrible last year.

Sarr will have to improve enormously before his minutes lead to wins rather than losses (as they did last year).

To me at least, there are a fair number of big questions to answer this year:

1. Will Bilal turn into a good player (good not "promising") in his 3d year in the league? If he doesn't, there's reason to wonder whether he ever will -- tho it's fair to point out that he's all of 21 & a couple of months old. He does have time.

2. How many of last year's trio of rookies (Sarr/Bub/Ky) will show significant development (you know... the kind that shows up in numbers & percentages)? Enabling us to project him (or them) as an actually good NBA player.

3. Does Tre Johnson have a good rookie year? Does he actually play well as a rookie, I mean. I don't mean "show promise" (also good of course) but actually post positive numbers for an NBA guard. Kinda like Jason Tatum posted positive numbers for a forward back when he was a rookie.

4. Is Cam Whitmore a good player? His first two years in the league he wasn't.

5. Will we see encouraging minutes from at least 1 or 2 (but hopefully all 3) of Riley, AJ, & Watkins? &/or Vukcevic for that matter?

Obviously, we are unlikely to get good results on all 5 of those questions, though... wouldn't that be nice?

Of course, there's more to point to -- but, to me at least, the above-mentioned are the key questions at stake this season.

[dckingsfan]

....If Keefe wanted to win and played the vets big minutes and also played Sarr in a PF role more, we could probably crack the 25-30 win....

Playing McCollum "big minutes" would be unlikely to add wins. He was terrible last year.

Sarr will have to improve enormously before his minutes lead to wins rather than losses (as they did last year).

To me at least, there are a fair number of big questions to answer this year:

1. Will Bilal turn into a good player (good not "promising") in his 3d year in the league? If he doesn't, there's reason to wonder whether he ever will -- tho it's fair to point out that he's all of 21 & a couple of months old. He does have time.

2. How many of last year's trio of rookies (Sarr/Bub/Ky) will show significant development (you know... the kind that shows up in numbers & percentages)? Enabling us to project him (or them) as an actually good NBA player.

3. Does Tre Johnson have a good rookie year? Does he actually play well as a rookie, I mean. I don't mean "show promise" (also good of course) but actually post positive numbers for an NBA guard. Kinda like Jason Tatum posted positive numbers for a forward back when he was a rookie.

4. Is Cam Whitmore a good player? His first two years in the league he wasn't.

5. Will we see encouraging minutes from at least 1 or 2 (but hopefully all 3) of Riley, AJ, & Watkins? &/or Vukcevic for that matter?

Obviously, we are unlikely to get good results on all 5 of those questions, though... wouldn't that be nice?

Of course, there's more to point to -- but, to me at least, the above-mentioned are the key questions at stake this season.

Those really are the questions. Will any of the youngsters break out (or in the case of rookies) show they are going to be good players. Or will any of the players show solid strides showing they have promise. And what does that mean for the franchise?

I posted this earlier, what is interesting to me is that to understand what Dawkins has conveyed to Keefe about how he will be judged for this season. Because that then has ramifications on who he plays. And that in turn helps the analysis (at least as fans) as to your question(s).

I am "guessing" that it won't be about wins. Rather it will be about player development, player evaluation, showcasing the older players and staying competitive in games (so as not to completely lose the fan base). What order that Keefe will be judged will also be material. But I could be easily wrong on this.

If I am right, we see the youngsters play. If Keefe feels a player is breaking out, I "think" they get as many minutes as they can handle. If a player is stuck in the mud and that goes double if multiple players are stuck in the mud.

[payitforward]

Bilal & the 3 '24 R1 picks all played a ton of minutes last year. In fact, I think Bub led all rookies in minutes. I imagine their floor time won't change much this year, & I'm sure Tre Johnson will get all the minutes he can handle. AJ, Riley, Watkins... who knows?

In any case, since 13 of the 18 guys under contract are 24 or younger, I guess there's not much question whether we'll see "the young guys" play!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Some interesting stats here. Whitmore certainly can get buckets.

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Right. We should see an uptick in offense.

We’ve gone from having only Jordan Poole as a guy who can get their own buckets to CJ, Tre and Cam. Middleton too but he’s more of an opportunistic scorer, taking what the defense gives him, more than ‘give me the ball and get out the way’.

Previously the guy 2nd most willing to force up a shot was Kuzma. His empty possessions really padded the tank early on.

Not saying we will surely lose our pick. But I get the sense we won’t be in contention for a bottom 3 record. There will be nights when we get on a hot streak so even if we fall behind there’s a chance one of these 3 will carry us back.

We're going to have to tank or trade away talent to stay at the bottom.

[doclinkin]

What is interesting to me is that to understand the rotations we need to understand what Dawkins has conveyed to Keefe about how he will be judged for this season.

I am "guessing" that it won't be about wins.

Coach Keefe is not in the hot seat. The mandate this year is the same as last year: 1) develop young players with heavy minutes 2) protect our top 8 pick.

The front office has built a team that can’t sustain wins. With no real interior defense or scoring, we are a perimeter team at both ends. Eventually we should be one of the only teams that can truly defend the 3pt shot. We can make em miss the first shot. But can’t stop them from getting putbacks and multiple chances to score.

But that’s by design. Coach Keefe can freely experiment with line ups however he likes but it still is going to look like a doughnut at best. Sweet on the outside nothing in the middle.

Dawkins has said in interviews we are still in the demolition and rebuilding phase. Development is the watchword. I fully expect we will see trades, even before the season. Even so. Same as last year nothing is quite as important as keeping our pick. Maximum play time for young players is historically one of the best ways to do that.

[dckingsfan]

What is interesting to me is that to understand the rotations we need to understand what Dawkins has conveyed to Keefe about how he will be judged for this season.

I am "guessing" that it won't be about wins.

Coach Keefe is not in the hot seat. The mandate this year is the same as last year: 1) develop young players with heavy minutes 2) protect our top 8 pick.

The front office has built a team that can’t sustain wins. With no real interior defense or scoring, we are a perimeter team at both ends. Eventually we should be one of the only teams that can truly defend the 3pt shot. We can make em miss the first shot. But can’t stop them from getting putbacks and multiple chances to score.

But that’s by design. Coach Keefe can freely experiment with line ups however he likes but it still is going to look like a doughnut at best. Sweet on the outside nothing in the middle.

Dawkins has said in interviews we are still in the demolition and rebuilding phase. Development is the watchword. I fully expect we will see trades, even before the season. Even so. Same as last year nothing is quite as important as keeping our pick. Maximum play time for young players is historically one of the best ways to do that.

Violent agreement.

But I don't know the specifics of what Dawkins conveyed to Keefe. And those specifics will drive the "specific" rotations to a large degree. I think this coaching staff and this FO are really in lockstep (that is a good thing, IMO). And you could mask the defensive rebounding problems by playing Sarr with Bagley or Vuk - so there is that.

And yes, the youngsters are going to get plenty of PT, I don't think anyone is arguing that. But it could be they get more PT after the trade deadline (for example). It could be that Dawkins wants one set of players evaluated sooner than another.

[payitforward]

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