Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #7-#8 Spots

[70sFan]

So Kobe's the most similar player to Kawhi of those you listed in that he's a wing scorer rather than a PG or a big. For his career, Kobe had an AST% of 23.3% in the playoffs peaking at 26.9% in 2008 surrounded by good teammates. Against the Sixers, Kawhi had an AST% of 23.5%. What exactly is it about Kobe's game that makes you think the Raptors would have performed better with Kobe as their lead scoring wing instead of Kawhi? I don't see a single playoff series in Kobe's entire career where he scored better than Kawhi did against the Sixers in 2019.

Kobe's offensive impact tends to scale higher than Kawhi's and bleeds through more than Kawhi's.

2019 Kawhi PS: 39.2 Points/100 on 61.9 TS% (+6.9 rTS%)
2008 Kobe PS: 38.0 Points/100 on 57.7 TS% (+3.7 rTS%)
2009 Kobe PS: 39.0 Points/100 on 56.4 TS% (+2.0 rTS%)

At first glance Kawhi is more efficient than Kobe and the volumes are similar.

What the end result is here, in a small sample, is Kawhi boasting a 112.3 Ortg when on the court in the 2019 post-season.

2019 Kawhi PS: 112.3 Ortg (+1.9 rORTG)
2008 Kobe PS: 110.2 Ortg (+2.7 rORTG)
2009 Kobe PS: 112.3 Ortg (+4.0 rORTG)

Now, these sample sizes are small, but the indicators here are that, while Kawhi is a better scorer by a couple percentage points, Kobe's offenses are reaching higher levels of offense in the post-season.

Below are the defenses they faced

2019 Kawhi PS: ORL (8th), PHI (15th), MIL (1st), GSW (13th) = 10th Average
2008 Kobe PS: DEN (10th), Jazz (12th), Spurs (3rd), BOS (1st) = 6th Average
2009 Kobe PS: Utah (10th), HOU (4th), DEN (8th), ORL (1st) = 6th Average

And yet, through all this, Kobe led better offenses against better defenses.

The one thing that strikes me with 2008 Kobe is how he handled my beloved Spurs in 2008 during the series that was a complete slugfest for the rest of both teams. Kobe played some of the best basketball of his life against top tier defensive team with prime Duncan shutting down Gasol and the paint and that made the clear difference for the outcome.

[Djoker]

As a Raptor fan remembering the 2019 title run, the ECF against the Bucks was the scariest series. I have no idea how we got out of that one. Kawhi balling and slowing down Giannis and them just not shooting well let us turn it around. They had us down 0-2 and Game 3 was in OT. We were a hair away from possibly getting swept!

[70sFan]

As a Raptor fan remembering the 2019 title run, the ECF against the Bucks was the scariest series. I have no idea how we got out of that one. Kawhi balling and slowing down Giannis and them just not shooting well let us turn it around. They had us down 0-2 and Game 3 was in OT. We were a hair away from possibly getting swept!

I thought after the first game that the Bucks will run through the Raptors easily, sometimes people take that win for granted but it was a very close series. Kawhi definitely needs a lot of praise for what he did. People often overstated his influence on the outcome (no, he didn't shut down Giannis alone), but we shouldn't push too far the opposite narrative - Kawhi was amazing in the first 3 rounds and he was still relatively good in the finals, even barely running.

[ReggiesKnicks]

As a Raptor fan remembering the 2019 title run, the ECF against the Bucks was the scariest series. I have no idea how we got out of that one. Kawhi balling and slowing down Giannis and them just not shooting well let us turn it around. They had us down 0-2 and Game 3 was in OT. We were a hair away from possibly getting swept!

I thought after the first game that the Bucks will run through the Raptors easily, sometimes people take that win for granted but it was a very close series. Kawhi definitely needs a lot of praise for what he did. People often overstated his influence on the outcome (no, he didn't shut down Giannis alone), but we shouldn't push too far the opposite narrative - Kawhi was amazing in the first 3 rounds and he was still relatively good in the finals, even barely running.

For reference to the amount of open shots generated against Toronto:

Milwaukee: 140 wide-open 3PA in 6 games (32.9% FG%)
Philadelphia: 104 wide-open 3PA in 7 games (35.6% FG%)
Golden State: 84 wide-open 3PA in 6 games (38.1% FG%)

[iggymcfrack]

7. 2025 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Best xRAPM of anyone not named LeBron or Jokic over the 28 seasons it's been available. Led OKC to the best team season ever by point differential. And while he did dip a bit in the playoffs, he still performed very well en route to winning FMVP, and he played best when his back was against the wall. He had his best scoring game of the playoffs Game 7 against the Nuggets, and his best passing game Game 7 against the Thunder.

8. 2019 Kawhi Leonard
I know the regular season stuff doesn't look very special, but he elevated to a ridiculously high level in the playoffs when it mattered to the point that I think very few players in NBA history are even capable of replicating that title run. All-time peak Jordan level scoring against the Sixers where he needed every point followed by an even more impressive 2 way masterclass in the conference finals shutting down Giannis in a way that had never happened before while also leading the team in scoring 5 out of 6 games. He also played extremely well in the Finals against a Warriors team that was 7-0 in the playoffs without KD prior to facing Toronto.

9. 2021 Giannis Antetokounmpo
Was originally quite a bit higher on this season, and I do think the Finals are legitimately one of the best ever, but when comparing it to other elite seasons, I think missing Games 5 and 6 of the Eastern conference finals really has to be held against him, especially since he's been consistently injury prone over the years. Also, I think the fact that Kawhi shut him down so easily head-to-head 2 years before has to be factored in when comparing peaks.

10. 2011 Dirk Nowitzki
The fancy one number stats might not be as high on this season as some, but it was still an incredible carry job from Dirk. He took a team that was below -5 in both the regular season and postseason with him on the bench and led them to a net rating over +10 in both the regular season and postseason when he was on the floor. He took a team that went 2-7 when he missed games and led them to a 55-18 record when he played. He beat Kobe/Pau/Bynum, KD/Westbrook/Harden, and Bron/Wade/Bosh with JET and Tyson Chandler as his sidekicks.

[eminence]

SGAs best scoring game was certainly game 2 against Denver.

[lessthanjake]

7. 2025 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Best xRAPM of anyone not named LeBron or Jokic over the 28 seasons it's been available. Led OKC to the best team season ever by point differential. And while he did dip a bit in the playoffs, he still performed very well en route to winning FMVP, and he played best when his back was against the wall. He had his best scoring game of the playoffs Game 7 against the Nuggets, and his best passing game Game 7 against the Thunder.

I’m going to have 2025 SGA on my ballot, but I wouldn’t exactly hold up Game 7 of the Finals as SGA “play[ing] best when his back was against the wall.” It may well have been his best passing game of the playoffs, but he also shot 8 for 27 with a 44.9% TS%. All things considered, when we account for the passing and him having only 1 turnover, I don’t think it was an awful game from him, but I’d hesitate to even call it good, let alone him playing his best. I’d say it was mediocre at best.

[homecourtloss]

1. 2011 Dirk: provided high end lift for nearly his entire career that reached some real highs with his rather unique skill set of efficient scoring on high difficult shots and overall + defense. +7.8 rORtg and -6.8 rDRtg, +14.6 rNRtg on court in the 2011 playoffs (-14.2 rORtg and -4.9 rDRtg without him). Frankly, I trust Dirk’s playoffs offense more than anyone else’s anything in the playoffs out of those left.
2. 2009 Kobe: Kobe has become underrated as a reaction to some ridiculous positions taken by the diehard Kobe fandom, but 2008-2010 Kobe away from Shaq was anchoring resilient offenses. 2009 Kobe’s run is underrated. +8.4 rORtg, -6.2 rDRtg on court through the 2009 playoffs after a very good regular season.
3. 2021 Giannis: I had some hesitations here since the playoffs offense at the team level doesn’t hold up and it didn’t vs. the Nets and one could argue that the Nets were better and should have won that series. But I can see Giannis in slightly different team contexts reaching even greater heights.
4. 2017 Kawhi: It’s a shame he got injured, but this version was right in the sweet spot for his offense and defense and was a better player than the 2019 version though both were good. His on/off and other impact metrics doesn’t stand out due to some specific circumstances but I feel this was the best version of him.

Had SGA had a better playoffs, he would be here and probably really should be. CP3, Nash and Durant also very well could be argued here with zero problems. There’s just too much talent in this era.

[70sFan]

1. 2011 Dirk: provided high end lift for nearly his entire career that reached some real highs with his rather unique skill set of efficient scoring on high difficult shots and overall + defense. +7.8 rORtg and -6.8 rDRtg, +14.6 rNRtg on court in the 2011 playoffs (-14.2 rORtg and -4.9 rDRtg without him). Frankly, I trust Dirk’s playoffs offense more than anyone else’s anything in the playoffs out of those left.
2. 2009 Kobe: Kobe has become underrated as a reaction to some ridiculous positions taken by the diehard Kobe fandom, but 2008-2010 Kobe away from Shaq was anchoring resilient offenses. 2009 Kobe’s run is underrated. +8.4 rORtg, -6.2 rDRtg on court through the 2009 playoffs after a very good regular season.
3. 2021 Giannis: I had some hesitations here since the playoffs offense at the team level doesn’t hold up and it didn’t vs. the Nets and one could argue that the Nets were better and should have won that series. But I can see Giannis in slightly different team contexts reaching even greater heights.
4. 2017 Kawhi: It’s a shame he got injured, but this version was right in the sweet spot for his offense and defense and was a better player than the 2019 version though both were good. His on/off and other impact metrics doesn’t stand out due to some specific circumstances but I feel this was the best version of him.

Had SGA had a better playoffs, he would be here and probably really should be. CP3, Nash and Durant also very well could be argued here with zero problems. There’s just too much talent in this era.

Since you didn't mention him, what do you think about Wade at this point?

[ReggiesKnicks]

7. 2025 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Best xRAPM of anyone not named LeBron or Jokic over the 28 seasons it's been available. Led OKC to the best team season ever by point differential. And while he did dip a bit in the playoffs, he still performed very well en route to winning FMVP, and he played best when his back was against the wall. He had his best scoring game of the playoffs Game 7 against the Nuggets, and his best passing game Game 7 against the Thunder.

I’m going to have 2025 SGA on my ballot, but I wouldn’t exactly hold up Game 7 of the Finals as SGA “play[ing] best when his back was against the wall.” It may well have been his best passing game of the playoffs, but he also shot 8 for 27 with a 44.9% TS%. All things considered, when we account for the passing and him having only 1 turnover, I don’t think it was an awful game from him, but I’d hesitate to even call it good, let alone him playing his best. I’d say it was mediocre at best.

SGA's slight drop in the post-season was in part because he wasn't getting close to the basket as much as the regular season.

RS Shot Demographic
20.6% at Rim
23.1% 3-10 ft

PS Shot Demographic
18.3% at Rim
19.0% 3-10 ft

The other aspect to SGA's efficiency drop is tied to rim finishing efficiency (74.2% vs 64.1%) and midrange (~51.4% vs ~46.5%).

SGA's turnover economy and playmaker share held up in the post-season, as did his free throw rate.

Big Picture
2024 SGA RS: 42.5 Points/100 on 63.6 TS% (197.9 TS+) and 8.4 TOV%
2024 SGA PS: 38.5 Points/100 on 58.2 TS% and 7.8 TOV%

2025 SGA RS: 45.9 Points/100 on 63.7 TS% (236.4 TS+) and 8.6 TOV%
2025 SGA PS: 39.2 Points/100 on 57.4 TS% and 9.1 TOV%

FWIW, League-wide TS%
2024: 58.0%
2025: 57.6%

The reality is SGA is a great post-season scorer as he has incredible volume but with league-average efficiency. This is going to carry an offense to a high level, but not the best levels. For comparison, here is Kawhi and Kobe in comparison.

2019 Kawhi PS: 39.2 Points/100 on 61.9 TS% (+6.9 rTS%) and 11.1 TOV%
2008 Kobe PS: 38.0 Points/100 on 57.7 TS% (+3.7 rTS%) and 11.3 TOV%
2009 Kobe PS: 39.0 Points/100 on 56.4 TS% (+2.0 rTS%) and 8.7 TOV%

This point is further illustrated by the contrast in defences faced.

2019 Kawhi PS: ORL (8th), PHI (15th), MIL (1st), GSW (13th) = 10th Average
2008 Kobe PS: DEN (10th), Jazz (12th), Spurs (3rd), BOS (1st) = 6th Average
2009 Kobe PS: Utah (10th), HOU (4th), DEN (8th), ORL (1st) = 6th Average
2024 SGA PS: NOP (7th), DAL (18th) = 12th Average (FWIW, Dallas was a Top 5 defence for half of the season)
2025 SGA PS: MEM (10th), DEN (22nd), MIN (6th), IND (13th) = 13th Average

SGA is a great player and the best regular season player here. I do tweak my priors slightly when SGA has two post-seasons of near identical impact/scoring where he was clearly worse than Kobe/Kawhi. If you chalk up both post-season runs to sample size, I can see the arguments of SGA over Kawhi/Kobe, but we have enough data for me to confidently say I prefer the best of Kobe, up to this point in SGA's career, to SGA (and Kawhi for that matter).

[Cavsfansince84]

SGA is a great player and the best regular season player here. I do tweak my priors slightly when SGA has two post-seasons of near identical impact/scoring where he was clearly worse than Kobe/Kawhi. If you chalk up both post-season runs to sample size, I can see the arguments of SGA over Kawhi/Kobe, but we have enough data for me to confidently say I prefer the best of Kobe, up to this point in SGA's career, to SGA (and Kawhi for that matter).

Is this strictly a playoff peaks project though? Because I fully understand the need to put a lot of emphasis on the post season but at the same time I think the rs should count for something here. It is by far the larger sample in any season a player plays and imo should not just be thrown out in favor of playoff stats entirely. How much effort a player puts into the rs can also impact the ps they have. So on that basis I find it hard to say 09 Kobe>2025 Shai. I think the rs has to count for at least half the grade a player gets in a peaks project if not more.

[ReggiesKnicks]

SGA is a great player and the best regular season player here. I do tweak my priors slightly when SGA has two post-seasons of near identical impact/scoring where he was clearly worse than Kobe/Kawhi. If you chalk up both post-season runs to sample size, I can see the arguments of SGA over Kawhi/Kobe, but we have enough data for me to confidently say I prefer the best of Kobe, up to this point in SGA's career, to SGA (and Kawhi for that matter).

Is this strictly a playoff peaks project though? Because I fully understand the need to put a lot of emphasis on the post season but at the same time I think the rs should count for something here. It is by far the larger sample in any season a player plays and imo should not just be thrown out in favor of playoff stats entirely. How much effort a player puts into the rs can also impact the ps they have. So on that basis I find it hard to say 09 Kobe>2025 Shai. I think the rs has to count for at least half the grade a player gets in a peaks project if not more.

No, this isn't strictly post-season for me, but someone like lessthanjake it is fully about post-season achievement and success. Does that make their assessment off base or wrong? Should YOU or I police how we analyse and weighting of different aspects?

If you had read my previous post(s), I specifically bolded my thought process when assessing peaks. Since you failed to read that part, I will provide you with it in response to this post and let you chew on that before responding again with the new information I am providing you.

Here ya go, chew away.

Key Point: The Regular Season sets the scale and the post-season allows us to tune the dial in terms of player assessment. Does a player have a skill or skill-set which typically scales up or is immune to defensive pressure or are they an elite defensive piece which can't be schemed against? That's a boon, but it is a boon which enhances what we have seen from the regular season, the large sample. The same is true inversely when a player routinely struggles in the post-season, maybe we need to roll-back or turn the dial down a half-notch compared to their regular season sample, but it doesn't completely change how I view a player.

I know some people love those 15-20 game post-season samples or even series samples, and while I will mention a couple below, it is in support of the bigger picture, the regular season sample size, and meant to highlight areas not be the catalyst or opening argument for why Dirk is ahead of Kobe.

For example: What if a player would crush 29 teams but goes up against the 1 team suited to slow him down. This happened in 2024 to Nikola Jokic and the Minnesota Timberwolves. No other team had the personnel, combined with a chip (Minnesota had a chip from 2023 and losing to them where they felt were the best team to matchup with Denver) on their shoulders to best Denver. Another team could have beat Denver, but no team was equipped to curtail Jokic's strengths as well as Minnesota.

Another interesting one is the 1995 WCSF with Phoenix/Houston. No team was as equipped to handle Hakeem than Phoenix, similar to the 2024 example above. Hakeem smoked Robinson in the WCF, yet Phoenix had nobody as good as Robinson but had a scheme in place to mitigate much of what Houston wanted to do and they could attack Houston defensively in a way no other team truly could in 1995. Houston won game 7 but Kevin Johnson was the best player in Game 7 in a 1-point loss. How much changes in the tune of how we view and talk about Hakeem and the NBA as a whole if Phoenix pulls off the victory?

[lessthanjake]

SGA is a great player and the best regular season player here. I do tweak my priors slightly when SGA has two post-seasons of near identical impact/scoring where he was clearly worse than Kobe/Kawhi. If you chalk up both post-season runs to sample size, I can see the arguments of SGA over Kawhi/Kobe, but we have enough data for me to confidently say I prefer the best of Kobe, up to this point in SGA's career, to SGA (and Kawhi for that matter).

Is this strictly a playoff peaks project though? Because I fully understand the need to put a lot of emphasis on the post season but at the same time I think the rs should count for something here. It is by far the larger sample in any season a player plays and imo should not just be thrown out in favor of playoff stats entirely. How much effort a player puts into the rs can also impact the ps they have. So on that basis I find it hard to say 09 Kobe>2025 Shai. I think the rs has to count for at least half the grade a player gets in a peaks project if not more.

No, this isn't strictly post-season for me, but someone like lessthanjake it is fully about post-season achievement and success. Does that make their assessment off base or wrong? Should YOU or I police how we analyse and weighting of different aspects?

Just to clarify, my approach is not “fully about post-season achievement and success.” That has significant weight, but the regular season still matters a lot to me—which is why I plan to have SGA on my ballot this time even though I think guys who will be left off my ballot had better playoffs than he did and why I’ve placed a player like 2004 Garnett above players I think were better in the playoffs than he was. To me, it’s all just a multi-factor balancing test, with regular season and playoffs both having significant weight.

[ReggiesKnicks]

Is this strictly a playoff peaks project though? Because I fully understand the need to put a lot of emphasis on the post season but at the same time I think the rs should count for something here. It is by far the larger sample in any season a player plays and imo should not just be thrown out in favor of playoff stats entirely. How much effort a player puts into the rs can also impact the ps they have. So on that basis I find it hard to say 09 Kobe>2025 Shai. I think the rs has to count for at least half the grade a player gets in a peaks project if not more.

No, this isn't strictly post-season for me, but someone like lessthanjake it is fully about post-season achievement and success. Does that make their assessment off base or wrong? Should YOU or I police how we analyse and weighting of different aspects?

Just to clarify, my approach is not “fully about post-season achievement and success.” That has significant weight, but the regular season still matters a lot to me—which is why I plan to have SGA on my ballot this time even though I think guys who will be left off my ballot had better playoffs than he did and why I’ve placed a player like 2004 Garnett above players I think were better in the playoffs than he was. To me, it’s all just a multi-factor balancing test, with regular season and playoffs both having significant weight.

Sure, but also if you put everyone on a scale with RS being on the left and PS being on the right, given what I have read from you and everyone else, you are definitely leaning the furthest right.

Is it extreme or incomprehensible? Of course not.

[iggymcfrack]

7. 2025 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Best xRAPM of anyone not named LeBron or Jokic over the 28 seasons it's been available. Led OKC to the best team season ever by point differential. And while he did dip a bit in the playoffs, he still performed very well en route to winning FMVP, and he played best when his back was against the wall. He had his best scoring game of the playoffs Game 7 against the Nuggets, and his best passing game Game 7 against the Thunder.

I’m going to have 2025 SGA on my ballot, but I wouldn’t exactly hold up Game 7 of the Finals as SGA “play[ing] best when his back was against the wall.” It may well have been his best passing game of the playoffs, but he also shot 8 for 27 with a 44.9% TS%. All things considered, when we account for the passing and him having only 1 turnover, I don’t think it was an awful game from him, but I’d hesitate to even call it good, let alone him playing his best. I’d say it was mediocre at best.

SGA's slight drop in the post-season was in part because he wasn't getting close to the basket as much as the regular season.

RS Shot Demographic
20.6% at Rim
23.1% 3-10 ft

PS Shot Demographic
18.3% at Rim
19.0% 3-10 ft

The other aspect to SGA's efficiency drop is tied to rim finishing efficiency (74.2% vs 64.1%) and midrange (~51.4% vs ~46.5%).

SGA's turnover economy and playmaker share held up in the post-season, as did his free throw rate.

Big Picture
2024 SGA RS: 42.5 Points/100 on 63.6 TS% (197.9 TS+) and 8.4 TOV%
2024 SGA PS: 38.5 Points/100 on 58.2 TS% and 7.8 TOV%

2025 SGA RS: 45.9 Points/100 on 63.7 TS% (236.4 TS+) and 8.6 TOV%
2025 SGA PS: 39.2 Points/100 on 57.4 TS% and 9.1 TOV%

FWIW, League-wide TS%
2024: 58.0%
2025: 57.6%

The reality is SGA is a great post-season scorer as he has incredible volume but with league-average efficiency. This is going to carry an offense to a high level, but not the best levels. For comparison, here is Kawhi and Kobe in comparison.

2019 Kawhi PS: 39.2 Points/100 on 61.9 TS% (+6.9 rTS%) and 11.1 TOV%
2008 Kobe PS: 38.0 Points/100 on 57.7 TS% (+3.7 rTS%) and 11.3 TOV%
2009 Kobe PS: 39.0 Points/100 on 56.4 TS% (+2.0 rTS%) and 8.7 TOV%

This point is further illustrated by the contrast in defences faced.

2019 Kawhi PS: ORL (8th), PHI (15th), MIL (1st), GSW (13th) = 10th Average
2008 Kobe PS: DEN (10th), Jazz (12th), Spurs (3rd), BOS (1st) = 6th Average
2009 Kobe PS: Utah (10th), HOU (4th), DEN (8th), ORL (1st) = 6th Average
2024 SGA PS: NOP (7th), DAL (18th) = 12th Average (FWIW, Dallas was a Top 5 defence for half of the season)
2025 SGA PS: MEM (10th), DEN (22nd), MIN (6th), IND (13th) = 13th Average

SGA is a great player and the best regular season player here. I do tweak my priors slightly when SGA has two post-seasons of near identical impact/scoring where he was clearly worse than Kobe/Kawhi. If you chalk up both post-season runs to sample size, I can see the arguments of SGA over Kawhi/Kobe, but we have enough data for me to confidently say I prefer the best of Kobe, up to this point in SGA's career, to SGA (and Kawhi for that matter).

Shai’s had 2 playoff runs since he got anywhere near close to his peak level. In 2024, he had a BPM of 9.2 in the playoffs. That’s higher than Kobe ever managed his entire career. In 2025, he had a BPM of 8.3. That’s higher than Kobe managed any playoffs his entire career except for 2009.

I feel like by trying to drill too deep, you’re kinda missing the forest for the trees. Yes, in one narrow category, SGA may be behind Kobe, but as a whole, even comparing a “disappointing” stretch to Kobe’s best over his entire 20 year career, Shai still comes out on top.

[70sFan]

I’m going to have 2025 SGA on my ballot, but I wouldn’t exactly hold up Game 7 of the Finals as SGA “play[ing] best when his back was against the wall.” It may well have been his best passing game of the playoffs, but he also shot 8 for 27 with a 44.9% TS%. All things considered, when we account for the passing and him having only 1 turnover, I don’t think it was an awful game from him, but I’d hesitate to even call it good, let alone him playing his best. I’d say it was mediocre at best.

SGA's slight drop in the post-season was in part because he wasn't getting close to the basket as much as the regular season.

RS Shot Demographic
20.6% at Rim
23.1% 3-10 ft

PS Shot Demographic
18.3% at Rim
19.0% 3-10 ft

The other aspect to SGA's efficiency drop is tied to rim finishing efficiency (74.2% vs 64.1%) and midrange (~51.4% vs ~46.5%).

SGA's turnover economy and playmaker share held up in the post-season, as did his free throw rate.

Big Picture
2024 SGA RS: 42.5 Points/100 on 63.6 TS% (197.9 TS+) and 8.4 TOV%
2024 SGA PS: 38.5 Points/100 on 58.2 TS% and 7.8 TOV%

2025 SGA RS: 45.9 Points/100 on 63.7 TS% (236.4 TS+) and 8.6 TOV%
2025 SGA PS: 39.2 Points/100 on 57.4 TS% and 9.1 TOV%

FWIW, League-wide TS%
2024: 58.0%
2025: 57.6%

The reality is SGA is a great post-season scorer as he has incredible volume but with league-average efficiency. This is going to carry an offense to a high level, but not the best levels. For comparison, here is Kawhi and Kobe in comparison.

2019 Kawhi PS: 39.2 Points/100 on 61.9 TS% (+6.9 rTS%) and 11.1 TOV%
2008 Kobe PS: 38.0 Points/100 on 57.7 TS% (+3.7 rTS%) and 11.3 TOV%
2009 Kobe PS: 39.0 Points/100 on 56.4 TS% (+2.0 rTS%) and 8.7 TOV%

This point is further illustrated by the contrast in defences faced.

2019 Kawhi PS: ORL (8th), PHI (15th), MIL (1st), GSW (13th) = 10th Average
2008 Kobe PS: DEN (10th), Jazz (12th), Spurs (3rd), BOS (1st) = 6th Average
2009 Kobe PS: Utah (10th), HOU (4th), DEN (8th), ORL (1st) = 6th Average
2024 SGA PS: NOP (7th), DAL (18th) = 12th Average (FWIW, Dallas was a Top 5 defence for half of the season)
2025 SGA PS: MEM (10th), DEN (22nd), MIN (6th), IND (13th) = 13th Average

SGA is a great player and the best regular season player here. I do tweak my priors slightly when SGA has two post-seasons of near identical impact/scoring where he was clearly worse than Kobe/Kawhi. If you chalk up both post-season runs to sample size, I can see the arguments of SGA over Kawhi/Kobe, but we have enough data for me to confidently say I prefer the best of Kobe, up to this point in SGA's career, to SGA (and Kawhi for that matter).

Shai’s had 2 playoff runs since he got anywhere near close to his peak level. In 2024, he had a BPM of 9.2 in the playoffs. That’s higher than Kobe ever managed his entire career. In 2025, he had a BPM of 8.3. That’s higher than Kobe managed any playoffs his entire career except for 2009.

I feel like by trying to drill too deep, you’re kinda missing the forest for the trees. Yes, in one narrow category, SGA may be behind Kobe, but as a whole, even comparing a “disappointing” stretch to Kobe’s best over his entire 20 year career, Shai still comes out on top.

Can you explain why BPM sees Shai as better in the playoffs than Kobe, despite so many evidences suggesting something else?

[lessthanjake]

No, this isn't strictly post-season for me, but someone like lessthanjake it is fully about post-season achievement and success. Does that make their assessment off base or wrong? Should YOU or I police how we analyse and weighting of different aspects?

Just to clarify, my approach is not “fully about post-season achievement and success.” That has significant weight, but the regular season still matters a lot to me—which is why I plan to have SGA on my ballot this time even though I think guys who will be left off my ballot had better playoffs than he did and why I’ve placed a player like 2004 Garnett above players I think were better in the playoffs than he was. To me, it’s all just a multi-factor balancing test, with regular season and playoffs both having significant weight.

Sure, but also if you put everyone on a scale with RS being on the left and PS being on the right, given what I have read from you and everyone else, you are definitely leaning the furthest right.

Is it extreme or incomprehensible? Of course not.

There’s definitely people here who weigh the playoffs less than I do, but at the very least I think Djoker probably gives substantially more weight to playoffs than I do—which is why I’m going to bite on 2025 SGA before Djoker will.

I’ll note that me going for 2006 Wade before anyone else might suggest I put a higher weight on playoffs than others, but I think a lot of what’s going on there is more that I just have a really positive view of how well Wade played in the 2006 playoffs. For any given weighting of playoffs vs. regular season, you will end up with a higher ranking of a player if you view them as having played better in the playoffs than someone else does. I think I probably have Wade’s 2006 playoff performance as like a tier or two higher than other people here do. I think it’s one of the very best playoffs anyone has ever had.

Anyways, I think I do take the strongest possible view that I won’t vote for a year where the player had a playoff-ending injury. And I also think I am more sensitive to actual concrete achievement in an assessment of “greatness” than most are. Like, winning a title matters a lot to me for purposes of this voting (though it’s not dispositive—which is why I put 2004 Garnett ahead of a whole bunch of great title-winning years from other players). Practically speaking, that helps playoff performance end up mattering a good bit, because it’s hard for a star to win a title if they didn’t play well in the playoffs (though it happens—see 2024 Tatum). But, if you held team success constant, I wouldn’t say I particularly preference playoff performance over regular season performance. Which is why 2025 SGA is going to go on my ballot this time over people that won a title and who I definitely think were better in the playoffs.

[Cavsfansince84]

No, this isn't strictly post-season for me, but someone like lessthanjake it is fully about post-season achievement and success. Does that make their assessment off base or wrong? Should YOU or I police how we analyse and weighting of different aspects?

If you had read my previous post(s), I specifically bolded my thought process when assessing peaks. Since you failed to read that part, I will provide you with it in response to this post and let you chew on that before responding again with the new information I am providing you.

Here ya go, chew away.

Key Point: The Regular Season sets the scale and the post-season allows us to tune the dial in terms of player assessment. Does a player have a skill or skill-set which typically scales up or is immune to defensive pressure or are they an elite defensive piece which can't be schemed against? That's a boon, but it is a boon which enhances what we have seen from the regular season, the large sample. The same is true inversely when a player routinely struggles in the post-season, maybe we need to roll-back or turn the dial down a half-notch compared to their regular season sample, but it doesn't completely change how I view a player.

I know some people love those 15-20 game post-season samples or even series samples, and while I will mention a couple below, it is in support of the bigger picture, the regular season sample size, and meant to highlight areas not be the catalyst or opening argument for why Dirk is ahead of Kobe.

For example: What if a player would crush 29 teams but goes up against the 1 team suited to slow him down. This happened in 2024 to Nikola Jokic and the Minnesota Timberwolves. No other team had the personnel, combined with a chip (Minnesota had a chip from 2023 and losing to them where they felt were the best team to matchup with Denver) on their shoulders to best Denver. Another team could have beat Denver, but no team was equipped to curtail Jokic's strengths as well as Minnesota.

Another interesting one is the 1995 WCSF with Phoenix/Houston. No team was as equipped to handle Hakeem than Phoenix, similar to the 2024 example above. Hakeem smoked Robinson in the WCF, yet Phoenix had nobody as good as Robinson but had a scheme in place to mitigate much of what Houston wanted to do and they could attack Houston defensively in a way no other team truly could in 1995. Houston won game 7 but Kevin Johnson was the best player in Game 7 in a 1-point loss. How much changes in the tune of how we view and talk about Hakeem and the NBA as a whole if Phoenix pulls off the victory?

I think you are taking this a bit too personally here bro. All I did was ask a rhetorical question for the purpose of discussion. It wasn't meant as some kind of attack on you because that's not what I'm here for. Also, I am not telling anyone else how they should vote or assess what a peak is so much as I am just saying the rs should count for something or else its just a playoff peaks project. I don't honestly think Shai struggled that much in the ps and again, I think he shouldered a pretty big load in the rs in order to lead Okc to the highest srs of all time due to teammates missing games. So I'm willing to cut him a little slack for wearing down in the ps. It'd be like if Steph had still won the title in 2016, without missing any games in the first two rounds and had 2 very strong series I don't think anyone would have any trouble voting his 2016 season in place of 2017.

[iggymcfrack]

SGA's slight drop in the post-season was in part because he wasn't getting close to the basket as much as the regular season.

RS Shot Demographic
20.6% at Rim
23.1% 3-10 ft

PS Shot Demographic
18.3% at Rim
19.0% 3-10 ft

The other aspect to SGA's efficiency drop is tied to rim finishing efficiency (74.2% vs 64.1%) and midrange (~51.4% vs ~46.5%).

SGA's turnover economy and playmaker share held up in the post-season, as did his free throw rate.

Big Picture
2024 SGA RS: 42.5 Points/100 on 63.6 TS% (197.9 TS+) and 8.4 TOV%
2024 SGA PS: 38.5 Points/100 on 58.2 TS% and 7.8 TOV%

2025 SGA RS: 45.9 Points/100 on 63.7 TS% (236.4 TS+) and 8.6 TOV%
2025 SGA PS: 39.2 Points/100 on 57.4 TS% and 9.1 TOV%

FWIW, League-wide TS%
2024: 58.0%
2025: 57.6%

The reality is SGA is a great post-season scorer as he has incredible volume but with league-average efficiency. This is going to carry an offense to a high level, but not the best levels. For comparison, here is Kawhi and Kobe in comparison.

2019 Kawhi PS: 39.2 Points/100 on 61.9 TS% (+6.9 rTS%) and 11.1 TOV%
2008 Kobe PS: 38.0 Points/100 on 57.7 TS% (+3.7 rTS%) and 11.3 TOV%
2009 Kobe PS: 39.0 Points/100 on 56.4 TS% (+2.0 rTS%) and 8.7 TOV%

This point is further illustrated by the contrast in defences faced.

2019 Kawhi PS: ORL (8th), PHI (15th), MIL (1st), GSW (13th) = 10th Average
2008 Kobe PS: DEN (10th), Jazz (12th), Spurs (3rd), BOS (1st) = 6th Average
2009 Kobe PS: Utah (10th), HOU (4th), DEN (8th), ORL (1st) = 6th Average
2024 SGA PS: NOP (7th), DAL (18th) = 12th Average (FWIW, Dallas was a Top 5 defence for half of the season)
2025 SGA PS: MEM (10th), DEN (22nd), MIN (6th), IND (13th) = 13th Average

SGA is a great player and the best regular season player here. I do tweak my priors slightly when SGA has two post-seasons of near identical impact/scoring where he was clearly worse than Kobe/Kawhi. If you chalk up both post-season runs to sample size, I can see the arguments of SGA over Kawhi/Kobe, but we have enough data for me to confidently say I prefer the best of Kobe, up to this point in SGA's career, to SGA (and Kawhi for that matter).

Shai’s had 2 playoff runs since he got anywhere near close to his peak level. In 2024, he had a BPM of 9.2 in the playoffs. That’s higher than Kobe ever managed his entire career. In 2025, he had a BPM of 8.3. That’s higher than Kobe managed any playoffs his entire career except for 2009.

I feel like by trying to drill too deep, you’re kinda missing the forest for the trees. Yes, in one narrow category, SGA may be behind Kobe, but as a whole, even comparing a “disappointing” stretch to Kobe’s best over his entire 20 year career, Shai still comes out on top.

Can you explain why BPM sees Shai as better in the playoffs than Kobe, despite so many evidences suggesting something else?

Sure, just looking at per 100 possession numbers for the 2024 and 2025 playoffs for Shai and the 2008 and 2009 playoffs for Kobe, we get:

Shai: 39.0/7.7/8.4/2.0/1.5 with 3.2 turnovers
Kobe: 38.5/7.0/7.0/2.1/0.8 with 3.7 turnovers

There’s no one category that’s glaring, but SGA has more rebounds, more assists, more blocks, and less turnovers while being pretty much equal on steals and points. Add up those little edges and they more than make up for Kobe’s smallish edge in shooting efficiency.

[ReggiesKnicks]

I’m going to have 2025 SGA on my ballot, but I wouldn’t exactly hold up Game 7 of the Finals as SGA “play[ing] best when his back was against the wall.” It may well have been his best passing game of the playoffs, but he also shot 8 for 27 with a 44.9% TS%. All things considered, when we account for the passing and him having only 1 turnover, I don’t think it was an awful game from him, but I’d hesitate to even call it good, let alone him playing his best. I’d say it was mediocre at best.

SGA's slight drop in the post-season was in part because he wasn't getting close to the basket as much as the regular season.

RS Shot Demographic
20.6% at Rim
23.1% 3-10 ft

PS Shot Demographic
18.3% at Rim
19.0% 3-10 ft

The other aspect to SGA's efficiency drop is tied to rim finishing efficiency (74.2% vs 64.1%) and midrange (~51.4% vs ~46.5%).

SGA's turnover economy and playmaker share held up in the post-season, as did his free throw rate.

Big Picture
2024 SGA RS: 42.5 Points/100 on 63.6 TS% (197.9 TS+) and 8.4 TOV%
2024 SGA PS: 38.5 Points/100 on 58.2 TS% and 7.8 TOV%

2025 SGA RS: 45.9 Points/100 on 63.7 TS% (236.4 TS+) and 8.6 TOV%
2025 SGA PS: 39.2 Points/100 on 57.4 TS% and 9.1 TOV%

FWIW, League-wide TS%
2024: 58.0%
2025: 57.6%

The reality is SGA is a great post-season scorer as he has incredible volume but with league-average efficiency. This is going to carry an offense to a high level, but not the best levels. For comparison, here is Kawhi and Kobe in comparison.

2019 Kawhi PS: 39.2 Points/100 on 61.9 TS% (+6.9 rTS%) and 11.1 TOV%
2008 Kobe PS: 38.0 Points/100 on 57.7 TS% (+3.7 rTS%) and 11.3 TOV%
2009 Kobe PS: 39.0 Points/100 on 56.4 TS% (+2.0 rTS%) and 8.7 TOV%

This point is further illustrated by the contrast in defences faced.

2019 Kawhi PS: ORL (8th), PHI (15th), MIL (1st), GSW (13th) = 10th Average
2008 Kobe PS: DEN (10th), Jazz (12th), Spurs (3rd), BOS (1st) = 6th Average
2009 Kobe PS: Utah (10th), HOU (4th), DEN (8th), ORL (1st) = 6th Average
2024 SGA PS: NOP (7th), DAL (18th) = 12th Average (FWIW, Dallas was a Top 5 defence for half of the season)
2025 SGA PS: MEM (10th), DEN (22nd), MIN (6th), IND (13th) = 13th Average

SGA is a great player and the best regular season player here. I do tweak my priors slightly when SGA has two post-seasons of near identical impact/scoring where he was clearly worse than Kobe/Kawhi. If you chalk up both post-season runs to sample size, I can see the arguments of SGA over Kawhi/Kobe, but we have enough data for me to confidently say I prefer the best of Kobe, up to this point in SGA's career, to SGA (and Kawhi for that matter).

Shai’s had 2 playoff runs since he got anywhere near close to his peak level. In 2024, he had a BPM of 9.2 in the playoffs. That’s higher than Kobe ever managed his entire career. In 2025, he had a BPM of 8.3. That’s higher than Kobe managed any playoffs his entire career except for 2009.

I feel like by trying to drill too deep, you’re kinda missing the forest for the trees. Yes, in one narrow category, SGA may be behind Kobe, but as a whole, even comparing a “disappointing” stretch to Kobe’s best over his entire 20 year career, Shai still comes out on top.

So when you say I am missing the forest for the trees when all you are doing is citing BPM is exactly what I would call missing the forest for the trees.

RE Two Playoff Runs: That is the sample size we have for SGA. If he improves and replicates more of his regular season impact in the post-season in 2026, I have this ability (Wild, I know) to adjust my priors by moving my dial. But, the fact of the matter is SGA's two post-season's so far have been underwhelming compared to his regular season levels and worse than the best we have seen from Kobe.

When you say I am looking at one narrow category, yet all you did was mentioned BPM, the irony there makes for a great George Orwell story.

So, let's present you with more information and a true comparison, shall we?

2024 SGA PS: 38.5 Points/100 on 58.2 TS% (+0.2 rTS%) and 7.8 TOV%
2025 SGA PS: 39.2 Points/100 on 57.4 TS% (-0.2 rTS%) and 9.1 TOV%
2008 Kobe PS: 38.0 Points/100 on 57.7 TS% (+3.7 rTS%) and 11.3 TOV%
2009 Kobe PS: 39.0 Points/100 on 56.4 TS% (+2.0 rTS%) and 8.7 TOV%

2024 SGA PS: 112.0 Ortg (-3.3 rORTG) vs 12th Average defense (Dallas was Top 5 in the 2nd half of season and great in Post-Season until they faced Boston)
2025 SGA PS: 115.6 Ortg (+1.0 rORTG) vs 13th Average defense
2008 Kobe PS: 111.3 Ortg (+3.8 rORTG) vs 6th Average defense (included #1 defense in NBA)
2009 Kobe PS: 113.4 Ortg (+5.1 rORTG) vs 6th Average defense (included #1 defense in NBA)

What more do we need?

2024 OKC PS Ortg w/ Shai: 112.0 (+1.0 On/Off)
2024 OKC PS Ortg w/o Shai: 111.0
2025 OKC PS Ortg w/ Shai: 115.6 (+1.0 On/Off)
2025 OKC PS Ortg w/o Shai: 114.6

2008 LAL PS Ortg w/ Kobe: 111.3 (+9.9 On/Off)
2008 LAL PS Ortg w/o Kobe: 100.4
2009 LAL PS Ortg w/ Kobe: 113.4 (+13.1 On/Off)
2009 LAL PS Ortg w/o Kobe: 100.3

These numbers for Kobe track with his regular season Offensive On/Off as well, which gives us a massive sample size of massive lift.

For SGA, his numbers in two consecutive post-seasons drop, the teams overall efficiency drops accordingly. Why would we dismiss this data for SGA as have difficulties in the post-season compared to Kobe?

If you care so much for BPM, why not include 2008 Chris Paul on your ballot? Afterall, in 2008 he had a BPM in the post-season of 11.3. Hell, he had a 5-year stretch from 2013-2017 where his average BPM in the post-season was 9.6, which is larger than SGA had in his career best of 9.2 in 2024 and besting 2025 where SGA only had a BPM of 8.2 in the post-season.

I am confused how you are citing one stat in your response to mine, when I cited multiple, and told me I am focusing in on one statistic, when you are the one who is looking at one or two points of data, data in which SGA isn't even the best when compared to the available pool of players.