The trade market for pitchers

[b_roy7]

Ian Snell? (Scroll down to last paragraph.) I say yes!

Edwin Jackson? (Again, scroll down to last paragraph.) Three years ago I would have said yes, now I say meh.

They're asking for Clement or Jones?

[Sweezo]

Supposedly the M's are offering Jones and Clement (and possibly Truinfel, depending on whom you believe) for Bedard. Jones and Clement? Fine, but if they send Truinfel I'm going to have a fit.

[TheUrbanZealot]

Ian Snell? (Scroll down to last paragraph.) I say yes!

Edwin Jackson? (Again, scroll down to last paragraph.) Three years ago I would have said yes, now I say meh.

I'll tell yout his, if we can somehow get Snell for Clement and change and Bedard for Jones and change, I will officially revoke any criticism I've had of Bavasi.

Snell is one of the best young strikeout pitchers in baseball. With this rotation:

Bedard
Felix
Snell
Washburn
Silva

I think we would lead the MLB in strikeouts, and be a not-so-darkhorse to not only win our division, but go to the WS (especially in our pitchers park).

I don't care if we have to give up Jones and Clement, Carlos T, Wlad B, they were barely playing to begin with, and we can't afford to wait on anymore prospects. We have to take advantage of Ichirco for the next 5 yrs before his inevitable decline begins, and we do that with solid pitching.

Bavasi, here is your chance to officially redeem yourself if you can get Ian Snell and/or Bedard (preferably both, of course).

[The_Child_Prodigy]

Supposedly the M's are offering Jones and Clement (and possibly Truinfel, depending on whom you believe) for Bedard. Jones and Clement? Fine, but if they send Truinfel I'm going to have a fit.

can I see the link. I too will throw a fit if we include Truinfel. Please no Bavasi.

[Basketball Jesus]

I'm reserving judgement until I see the deals. I expect Bavasi to do something like trade the entire Tacoma club for Snell.

[Sweezo]

I'm reserving judgement until I see the deals. I expect Bavasi to do something like trade the entire Tacoma club for Snell.

Except Nick Lachey. That's the only thing linked the Rainiers that we'd hang on to.

[Basketball Jesus]

Wow:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/20 ... 14346/0389

"The Reds... might have internally agreed to include Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto and a fourth player, possibly a young player from their 25-man roster." The fourth player possibly being Edward Encarnacion.

The guy reporting this is a pretty well-respect Seattle journalist guy (Jason Churchill)



Um...no thanks? If that's the ridiculous offer the Reds are legitimately throwing out there then let them have him.

[Sweezo]

Wow:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/20 ... 14346/0389

"The Reds... might have internally agreed to include Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto and a fourth player, possibly a young player from their 25-man roster." The fourth player possibly being Edward Encarnacion.

The guy reporting this is a pretty well-respect Seattle journalist guy (Jason Churchill)



Um...no thanks? If that's the ridiculous offer the Reds are legitimately throwing out there then let them have him.

Churchill's the one who was saying Jones and Truinfel are on the table from Seattle (as was Ken Rosenthal). Which I think is too much.

[Sweezo]

Rosenthal's now saying the M's and O's have agreed to Jones/Truinfel/Sherril for Bedard...but the O's are insistant we throw Tillman in as well, but the M's don't want to. And I don't know why. If you're already trading Jones/Truinfel/Sherril who give a **** about Tillman? You're giving up our top two prospects and one of the best relievers in baseball after all.

Hopefully Bavasi walks out into traffic while he's on his cellphone negotiating this deal and it doesn't get completed. Some may say that's a mean joke. To those people I would say...what joke?

[Basketball Jesus]

I

[Ex-hippie]

Gaah. I can't believe this. All of that for two years of Bedard, then maybe first crack at re-signing him for $20 million per year? I've come to the conclusion that it's not worth trading Jones alone. I'd be happy for them to build a trade around Morrow, not Jones or Clement, and especially not Triunfel. Bavasi must be stopped.

[Sweezo]

I could live with trading Jones. Certainly I've come around to believe that, long term, Jones will have more value to this team than Bedard...but I could still deal with it. Trading off two high grade prospects and a valued member of this team, however, just seems like a joke.

$5 says, if the M's trade Jones, they sign Luis Gonzalez to a one year deal to play RF.

[TheUrbanZealot]

I'm a little trumped as to why you guys wanted to hold on for dear life to unproven talents like Jones, Triunfel, Clement. If you feel that triumverate 5 yrs down the line wll bring us closer to a World Series than a top 10 ace pitcher added to a brink-of-the-playoffs team, then you are probably being a little overly ambitious.

Let it be known, that history has shown hanging on to your farm picks for dear life not only A) doesn't guarantee a WOrld Series and B) doesn't make you any more competitive than building via free-agency. Actually, when i look at past chamionships- using Boston as a template- their team was not built via the farm. Beckett, Schilling, Dice, Manny, Ortiz, Lowell- all of their major talent came away from Boston.

Further, the keeping the farm prospects together rule would only be deal if they all turned into superstars- which, if they did- can we realistically expect to keep them all?

In baseball, I will take the sanctity of a proven commodity vs the prospectus of a hot shot youngster any time. Baseball, more than any other sport, is a game of "ifs" that I want to avoid as much as possible.

We need to win now, and take advantage of talent like Ichiro while he is in his prime. If we have to sell the unproven farm to do so, let's.

[Ex-hippie]

In baseball, I will take the sanctity of a proven commodity vs the prospectus of a hot shot youngster any time. Baseball, more than any other sport, is a game of "ifs" that I want to avoid as much as possible.

I very, very, very, very strongly disagree with this. But let's indulge the idea for a second. What has Bedard proven? He's been an excellent pitcher for about half a season. We're not talking about Johan, winner of multiple Cy Youngs.

[TheUrbanZealot]

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I very, very, very, very strongly disagree with this. But let's indulge the idea for a second. What has Bedard proven? He's been an excellent pitcher for about half a season. We're not talking about Johan, winner of multiple Cy Youngs.

Bedard has proven to improve every year since he's been in the league. Quality starting pitching, nowadays, is an EXTREMELY rare commodity. Do you remember in the 80's when a 4.00 ERA for a SP was considered high? Now we reward players with a 4.00 ERA with double digit million contracts. Now the game has changed a little, it's become more power-oriented granted, but the bottomline remains the same. Starting pitchers with a sub 4 ERA are a rare breed, and the Mariners in recent years haven't had the luxury of fielding multiple sub 4-ers.

Another factor you may want to consider is Bedard's effect on our defense. You see, having Bedard relieves our defense that much more because with every strikeout that is one less out the defense has to worry about fielding. Imagine the luxury of knowing you have 2 pitchers who are going to acct for 400 outs total on their own without even having to assist. That really helps our defense knowing that every single ball isn't going to be hit into play...

Tell me this- when was the last time a team kept their farm together for years and years and competed? A fluke Marlin team that only ended up disbanding everyone the next year anyways? I mean, virtually every championship team has gotten their main cogs from either free-agency or trades.

I know sometimes we worry about the "what if" factor- in other words what if Jones ends up being a 30/30 machine, or Triunfel ends up being the next Ozzie Smith, or Morrow ends up being the next Ryan, etc etc. I mean, we can go on and on about what ifs, but revisionist history will tell you that the proven commodity wins out over the one with a lot of hype most of the time.

You see, right now, we know what Erik Bedard can do. We can use the fluke theory on every player in the league, but Bedard has shown improvement 4 consecutive years, so I'll go by that. However, there is nothing saying that Jones won't be the next Jeremy Reed. He has not proven himself on the MLB level, nor has C.T., nor has J.C., and I am willing to sell high to buy higher in order net us closer to a championship.

Remember this- at one point we had the 2 best players in baseball in Griffey AND Rodriguez, not to mention the best DH, not to mention the best PITCHER, and we still got done in because in the end, we didn't have enough pitching.

Yeah, I'll take Bedard on top of what we have now vs the youngsters REPLACING part of what we have...

[Ex-hippie]

I mean, we can go on and on about what ifs, but revisionist history will tell you that the proven commodity wins out over the one with a lot of hype most of the time.

If by "revisionist history" you mean "wrong account of history," then I agree. This stuff has been studied. History disagrees with you. You call that Marlins team a "fluke" -- well, the team had to disband because they were cutting costs when the players became eligible for free agency, but what about it? Where were Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell last year, and do you think they maybe had something to do with helping a team win the Series? Don't you think the Marlins would have been right back in there with Beckett and Lowell and AJ Burnett and Derrek Lee and Dontrelle and Cabrera?

P.S. I'm less worried about Triunfel becoming the next Ozzie Smith than I am about him becoming the next Gary Sheffield.

[The_Child_Prodigy]

I would say most teams aquire young talent or homegrow talent bring them up and aquire the missing pieces. Not trade all there prospects for pieces when there will be missing pieces.

[TheUrbanZealot]

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If by "revisionist history" you mean "wrong account of history," then I agree. This stuff has been studied. History disagrees with you. You call that Marlins team a "fluke" -- well, the team had to disband because they were cutting costs when the players became eligible for free agency, but what about it? Where were Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell last year, and do you think they maybe had something to do with helping a team win the Series? Don't you think the Marlins would have been right back in there with Beckett and Lowell and AJ Burnett and Derrek Lee and Dontrelle and Cabrera?

P.S. I'm less worried about Triunfel becoming the next Ozzie Smith than I am about him becoming the next Gary Sheffield.

Ok, homework assignment. Go over the last 10 champions, and tell me which one of those teams top 3 players came up in their own system. It is extremely rare for homegrown talent to stick! Tell m where history has proven otherwise please. Cite the last 10 champions, and point out the top 3 players on each one. I guarantee you less than a 3rd actually were with the team from the get-go...

If i wasn't lazy I'd list the teams and those players myself...

[Ex-hippie]

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Ok, homework assignment. Go over the last 10 champions, and tell me which one of those teams top 3 players came up in their own system. It is extremely rare for homegrown talent to stick! Tell m where history has proven otherwise please. Cite the last 10 champions, and point out the top 3 players on each one. I guarantee you less than a 3rd actually were with the team from the get-go...

If i wasn't lazy I'd list the teams and those players myself...

Homework assignment for you. Go through all of baseball history and find me one, just one, credible analysis that concludes that "proven veterans" are any more reliable than youngsters. You won't find it, because they aren't.

What you will find is that teams not from New York or Boston absolutely must build around nuclei of young, cheap, homegrown players, with free agents filling gaps. Trade Jones and now we need a right fielder. If we're lucky, we'll find a Jose Guillen type for $8 million or so. Which we can do if we are the Red Sox and can afford it. But we're the Mariners, and looking at plugging in Willie Bloomquist or Jeremy Reed. It makes no sense at all. You have to keep your young talent.

[TheUrbanZealot]

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Homework assignment for you. Go through all of baseball history and find me one, just one, credible analysis that concludes that "proven veterans" are any more reliable than youngsters. You won't find it, because they aren't.

What you will find is that teams not from New York or Boston absolutely must build around nuclei of young, cheap, homegrown players, with free agents filling gaps. Trade Jones and now we need a right fielder. If we're lucky, we'll find a Jose Guillen type for $8 million or so. Which we can do if we are the Red Sox and can afford it. But we're the Mariners, and looking at plugging in Willie Bloomquist or Jeremy Reed. It makes no sense at all. You have to keep your young talent.

No one is saying that smaller market teams have to match the free agent signing power of a Boston or NY. That isn't even worth mention as it's a given. The point is, looking back in recent history, name me a team that has relied primarily on it's homegrown talent to net a championship? Look back at the last 10-15 yrs, almost every championship team's top players were acquired either via trade or free agency.

This is a different era in baseball in which money is the big talker. The sheer reality is that in order to compete NOW, you have to have NOW talent. What happens with a lot of fans is they get so attached to their homegrown talent that they focus more on the "what if they become superstar" unknown rather than the "the person we are getting in return is already a superstar" KNOWN.

In today's game, pitching is what sets teams apart. All of those guys can hit 30+ home runs, but if we have 8th tier pitchers backing them up, it's moot point. Further, you mention we'll need a right fielder if we trade Jones. I know you are not comparing an unproven right fielder to a top 10 ace? You do realize that having Bedard essentially gives us about 8-10 more wins than whom he is replacing- essentailly Jeff Weaver. We could have used those wins last year, no? You simply can not compare a rookie to a top quality starting pitcher. A high quality starting pitcher is so much harder to find than an everyday right fielder that it's not even worth debate. Hell, we might as well stick Wlad Balentien there, it really doesn't matter, because I want those 8 extra wins in the form of Bedard.

I know it's hard to let go of homegrown talent, and the worry/fear is always going to be there that they turn into to superstars. But you do realize, it's just worry/fear. They haven't become superstars yet. Let us try to focus on maximizing our current team while we have the talent to do so. Do you really not want to take advantage of Ichiro for the next 5 yrs? Do you seriously think Jones is going to have better numbers than Guillen had last year?

Come on...