2025 Around MLB Playoffs Discussion

[JN]

We can clinch today if the Jays win and two of Guardians, Red Sox, and Tigers lose.

The Tigers play an hour before us, Boston is at the same time, and the Guardians go a half hour after our first pitch.

Hopefully we'll know that we're in the post-season before bedtime.

Is that something you read or heard somewhere? I agree that in that scenario we would clarly be in, as that would make it impossible for all three of Cleveland, Boston and Detroit to all win 90 games.

That being said (and credit goes to Randle for bringing it up in the first place) I am fairly confident that if we win tonight there are no scenarios that anybody could come up with where we miss the playoffs -- no matter what other teams do tonight, win or lose. The 3 team for 2 spot scenarios, we are all good if its Cleveland or Boston or Detroit at 90 wins. Being in Houston or Seattle to the party, due to our overall record in head to head, the math doesn't work for us to be the odd team out in a 4 for 3 scenario.

[JN]

The Jays organization should have some nerd working on the 4 team tie-breaker scenarios now (I assume they do) And giving up the 100% thumbs up or thumbs down.

It would be awfully embarrassing if we won tonight, and somebody comes out after the game that we clinched without us knowing about it. I forgot the team, but this happened a few years back, where it came out a few hours after the game they had clinched.

[Parataxis]

We can clinch today if the Jays win and two of Guardians, Red Sox, and Tigers lose.

The Tigers play an hour before us, Boston is at the same time, and the Guardians go a half hour after our first pitch.

Hopefully we'll know that we're in the post-season before bedtime.

Is that something you read or heard somewhere? I agree that in that scenario we would clarly be in, as that would make it impossible for all three of Cleveland, Boston and Detroit to all win 90 games.

That being said (and credit goes to Randle for bringing it up in the first place) I am fairly confident that if we win tonight there are no scenarios that anybody could come up with where we miss the playoffs -- no matter what other teams do tonight, win or lose. The 3 team for 2 spot scenarios, we are all good if its Cleveland or Boston or Detroit at 90 wins. Being in Houston or Seattle to the party, due to our overall record in head to head, the math doesn't work for us to be the odd team out in a 4 for 3 scenario.

I saw it here. https://www.playoffstatus.com/mlb/bluejaysclinch.html

I haven't played out all the scenarios otherwise though, but you might be right.

[Potential]

All cleared up

Read on Twitter

[Randle McMurphy]

The Jays organization should have some nerd working on the 4 team tie-breaker scenarios now (I assume they do) And giving up the 100% thumbs up or thumbs down.

It would be awfully embarrassing if we won tonight, and somebody comes out after the game that we clinched without us knowing about it. I forgot the team, but this happened a few years back, where it came out a few hours after the game they had clinched.

It happened in 2015 to the Jays, IIRC.

[Randle McMurphy]

I still don't see how they miss the playoffs if they win today in any possible scenario (although admittedly I didn't take the time to work out the specifics of the 4 team tiebreaker stuff), but maybe MLB has a different basis for establishing "clinching" than that.

[DelAbbot]

The Jays organization should have some nerd working on the 4 team tie-breaker scenarios now (I assume they do) And giving up the 100% thumbs up or thumbs down.

It would be awfully embarrassing if we won tonight, and somebody comes out after the game that we clinched without us knowing about it. I forgot the team, but this happened a few years back, where it came out a few hours after the game they had clinched.

It's not a big deal - we need higher Aspiration of celebrating only for division title.

[JN]

The Jays organization should have some nerd working on the 4 team tie-breaker scenarios now (I assume they do) And giving up the 100% thumbs up or thumbs down.

It would be awfully embarrassing if we won tonight, and somebody comes out after the game that we clinched without us knowing about it. I forgot the team, but this happened a few years back, where it came out a few hours after the game they had clinched.

It's not a big deal - we need higher Aspiration of celebrating only for division title.

Every team celebrates clinching a playoff spot, so whether its a major deal or not its good to get it right.

I'm not sure if you are suggesting teams should aspire to be World Series champs or finalists. Sure those are end goals, but playoffs are crapshoots.

Really what this team should be aspiring to be is a consistent 90+ win team year after year, fighting for the bye every year. And we really haven't quite reached that level.

[JN]

I still don't see how they miss the playoffs if they win today in any possible scenario (although admittedly I didn't take the time to work out the specifics of the 4 team tiebreaker stuff), but maybe MLB has a different basis for establishing "clinching" than that.

I'm killing lots of time on this today, but it always good for your brain to work through some logic puzzles.

I think I found the scenario where we don't clinch with a win (a 4 way tie at 90 wins with Boston, Cleveland and Houston) - but it depends on how the 4 way tiebreaker rules are applied (which i have below). MLB is unclear on specifics, but I presume they go in steps.
If there is a 4 team tie-breaker for 3 spots (WC#1, WC#2, WC#3), do they use the 4 way tie-breaker process (specifically aggregate head to head winning %) to choose only WC#1, and then move to 3 way tie rules for the remaining 3 teams? In this scenario we would be eliminated. Or do they use it to choose WC#1, WC#2, and WC#3 and eliminate the team with the fourth best record. In this case Houston is out

There is no way we miss out on a 4 way playoff with Seattle involved, since we are at .500 or above .500 vs every team in that scenario. So we can quickly ignore those scenarios.

Let's think through Houston
- Our worse possible overall winning% in a 4 way tiebreaker is 9-10 (47.3%) and that would be Houston, Cleveland, Detroit or 12-13 (48.0%) if its Houston, Cleveland, Boston
- Houston is very easy to analyze as their record will be 8-10 (44.4%) no matter who is in the tie-breaker. That is since they are 2-4 vs all of Cleveland, Boston and Detroit.
- So we know for a fact already, that in a 4 way playoff tiebreaker scenario Houston's aggregate winning % will be worse than Toronto's.

I put one scenario down here.
Houston, Cleveland, Boston, Toronto
Toronto record is 12-13 (2-4, 3-3, 7-6, n/a)
Houston is 8-10 (n/a, 2-4, 2-4, 4-2)
Boston is 15-10 (4-2, 4-2, n/a, 7-6)
Cleveland is 9-9 (4-2, n/a, 2-4, 3-3)

If aggregate winning % is used to select 3 out of the 4 teams, we are solid and Houston is out.
But if it is only used to pick one of 4 team, making Boston WC#1, and we then default to 3 way tie rules between Toronto, Houston and Cleveland, then we are eliminated.
a) In a 3 way tie scenario Cleveland is 7-5, Houston is 6-6 and Toronto is 5-7, meaning Cleveland is WC#2.
b) It then comes down to Houston and Toronto, and Houston won the season series against us 4-2, so they are WC#3.

------------------------
Here are the rules

If four teams are all tied for one spot, the winner would be determined via the following steps:

1. Tied Club with better record against each of the three other Clubs.
2. Highest winning percentage in games among the tied Clubs.*
3. Highest winning percentage in intradivision games.*
4. Highest winning percentage in intraleague games.*
5. Highest winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games.*
6. Highest winning percentage in the last half plus one intraleague game (provided that such additional game
was not between any of the tied Clubs). Continue to go back one intraleague game at a time until any ties
have been broken.

[Randle McMurphy]

I still don't see how they miss the playoffs if they win today in any possible scenario (although admittedly I didn't take the time to work out the specifics of the 4 team tiebreaker stuff), but maybe MLB has a different basis for establishing "clinching" than that.

I'm killing lots of time on this today, but it always good for your brain to work through some logic puzzles.

I think I found the scenario where we don't clinch with a win (a 4 way tie at 90 wins with Boston, Cleveland and Houston) - but it depends on how the 4 way tiebreaker rules are applied (which i have below). MLB is unclear on specifics, but I presume they go in steps.
If there is a 4 team tie-breaker for 3 spots (WC#1, WC#2, WC#3), do they use the 4 way tie-breaker process (specifically aggregate head to head winning %) to choose only WC#1, and then move to 3 way tie rules for the remaining 3 teams? In this scenario we would be eliminated. Or do they use it to choose WC#1, WC#2, and WC#3 and eliminate the team with the fourth best record. In this case Houston is out

There is no way we miss out on a 4 way playoff with Seattle involved, since we are at .500 or above .500 vs every team in that scenario. So we can quickly ignore those scenarios.

Let's think through Houston
- Our worse possible overall winning% in a 4 way tiebreaker is 9-10 (47.3%) and that would be Houston, Cleveland, Detroit or 12-13 (48.0%) if its Houston, Cleveland, Boston
- Houston is very easy to analyze as their record will be 8-10 (44.4%) no matter who is in the tie-breaker. That is since they are 2-4 vs all of Cleveland, Boston and Detroit.
- So we know for a fact already, that in a 4 way playoff tiebreaker scenario Houston's aggregate winning % will be worse than Toronto's.

I put one scenario down here.
Houston, Cleveland, Boston, Toronto
Toronto record is 12-13 (2-4, 3-3, 7-6, n/a)
Houston is 8-10 (n/a, 2-4, 2-4, 4-2)
Boston is 15-10 (4-2, 4-2, n/a, 7-6)
Cleveland is 9-9 (4-2, n/a, 2-4, 3-3)

If aggregate winning % is used to select 3 out of the 4 teams, we are solid and Houston is out.
But if it is only used to pick one of 4 team, making Boston WC#1, and we then default to 3 way tie rules between Toronto, Houston and Cleveland, then we are eliminated.
a) In a 3 way tie scenario Cleveland is 7-5, Houston is 6-6 and Toronto is 5-7, meaning Cleveland is WC#2.
b) It then comes down to Houston and Toronto, and Houston won the season series against us 4-2, so they are WC#3.

------------------------
Here are the rules

If four teams are all tied for one spot, the winner would be determined via the following steps:

1. Tied Club with better record against each of the three other Clubs.
2. Highest winning percentage in games among the tied Clubs.*
3. Highest winning percentage in intradivision games.*
4. Highest winning percentage in intraleague games.*
5. Highest winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games.*
6. Highest winning percentage in the last half plus one intraleague game (provided that such additional game
was not between any of the tied Clubs). Continue to go back one intraleague game at a time until any ties
have been broken.

I think that's probably it then. That's the scenario that would prevent us from clinching with just a win.

The tiebreaker rules (at least the ones they publicly post) are not nearly specific enough, it seems.

[Asianiac_24]

Yankees lose and we lose, I'd count that as a win.

[vaff87]

The Tigers are now tied with the Mariners for the #2 seed.

[JN]

Records since the beginning of August (AL)
Houston and Detroit are really coming into the playoffs in the wrong direction.
Cleveland is quite the story given that they moved a few players and lost Classe in mid July.

Cleveland 28-17
Seattle 27-17
New York 26-19
Oakland 25-18
Toronto 25-19
Boston 25-19
KC 23-22
Baltimore 23-22
Texas 22-22
Houston 22-23
Tampa 21-23
Detroit 21-23

[dchoye]

Guardians are hottest team in the AL right now
Must be tough to be a Tigers fan

[dh_45]

Jay's better get some offense going Yankees guaranteed to win tonight

[Randle McMurphy]

Yankees moving to 2 back after their destruction of the Orioles.

The collapse is nearly complete.

[Randle McMurphy]

Red Sox about to move 4 back as well and could move to 3 back tomorrow. If they sweep us, they’ll have a chance to win the division.

What an all-time collapse this is shaping up to be.

[Raps in 4]

Yankees look like a lock to win the division now. We're lucky if we can keep the #2 seed in the division, but I'm not sure this offense can win another game this season. Maybe we'll get lucky against an opponent who also can't score runs. But that's unlikely with our remaining games being against the Red Sox and Rays, both teams that have been better than us for several weeks now.

[Ranger One]

Yankees look like a lock to win the division now. We're lucky if we can keep the #2 seed in the division, but I'm not sure this offense can win another game this season. Maybe we'll get lucky against an opponent who also can't score runs. But that's unlikely with our remaining games being against the Red Sox and Rays, both teams that have been better than us for several weeks now.

Uhh, the Royals are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. They average 3.8 runs per game and have outscored us 22-2 in this series. It doesnt get any easier offense wise than the Royals.

[JN]

Some of you better run to the books - Yanks still at +350 to win the AL East this monring.

(Before any the usual suspects try to spin the narrative and ask me if I am certain the Jays will win the division... of course not).