HKPackFan wrote:coolhandluke121 wrote:Magic number to clinch the division is 1, because Cubs own the tiebreaker.
Magic number to clinch 1-seed in NL is 4, because Philly loses the tiebreaker.
Magic number to clinch homefield advantage in the World Series is 1 because Toronto loses the tiebreaker.
LAD has already lost a chance to catch the Brewers because they lose the tiebreaker.
Everyone else is more than 7 games behind Milwaukee.
What are the odds they go 5-2 and get 100 wins?
How tough are the next 2 series after today?
San Diego probably has at least a 90% chance of being locked in to the 5-seed, so I don't think they're especially motivated to use everything in the tank.
The Mets are pretty strong candidates to keep choking and give the Reds a chance all the way through the final weekend, so the Reds are likely to be fighting for their playoff lives IMO.
I don't think the fact that those two teams are solid is that big of a factor over the course of just 6 games when your magic numbers are so low with 7 games left though. I mean, even if having a tougher schedule makes it twice as likely that the Phillies catch the Brewers, you're still probably only going from a 4% chance to 8% chance or something like that.
The Brewers are not likely to chase 100 wins, nor should they with all the injury concerns they've had over the last 6 weeks. They're a good team with a lot of depth though, so I'd still give them a puncher's chance (maybe 8-10%), but you have to remember that if they stay in the hunt for 100 wins, that probably means they already clinched the best record in baseball and will no longer have any seeding motivation.
ETA: Also note that 99 wins would guarantee the #1 overall seed, even if Philly wins out, so there's no scenario will Milwaukee will have any incentive to win #100. Well, no incentive other than it being a nice, even number, but 99 is a cool number in its own right.
Wut we've got here is... faaailure... to communakate.
