Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #7-#8 Spots

homecourtloss · Post #141 » by **homecourtloss** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 12:06 am

70sFan wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:
70sFan wrote:Since you didn't mention him, what do you think about Wade at this point?

I think Wade is next right below those guys.

So you'd have Wade roughly around ~15th place? Sounds quite low relative to the rest of voting panel, why is that?

I don’t think there’s much difference between these players at this level, so to me 9 or 15…There’s no real contention for me. But for specific reasons, I don’t think he was able to elevate a team in the playoffs to the extent others have done. The 2006 finals were mediocre team wise even though Wade was the recipient of a generous whistle, while acknowledging his ATG slashing/spitting doubles abilities. Yes, his teammates didn’t help much, especially Shaq’s all-time terrible FT shooting, but a -4,3 rORtg leaves much to be desired. I think 2009 is his peak but there are injuries, so we never got to see what he was capable of as well realizing that his teammates were trash that year.

falcolombardi · Post #142 » by **falcolombardi** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 2:03 am

I am obviously biased as a okc fan but i cannot help but feel you guys are kind of missing some of the forest (impact on winning) for the trees (efficiency and on-off) in his post season run

shai last post season (or last 2 years) is/are unusual in that by far his 2 worst series which drag his averages way down...are 2 first round series where okc won their games 8-0 combined (pels and memphis) which is the total opposite of most players who for obvious reasons tend to perform better than their post season averages against weaker first round outs

Like you can look at michael jordan game score by round for his prime and the 1st round stands out as way better than the other 3 and realize how unusual to be dragged down statistically by your "freebie" first round sweep wins is instead of the opposite ("padding" your averages up on the easy series wins)

Meanwhile in pivotal games like game 4 vs minny or most of the indiana amd denver series he was mostly good to really good/great, even in some of the ones okc lost (like game 1 of the finals and game 6 vs nuggets) and had more good than bad games when it mattered (bad games when it mattered was like game 3 vs denver, game 6 vs indy being obvious exceptions)

As much as it has been said about offensive drop off compared to regular season it was a league wide thingh with the only 1 out of 16 offenses to have a great offensive rating being cleveland who padded most of it against miami before losing in the 2nd round

Okc "trash" offense actually was marginally better by off rating in the post season than indiana, and only below cleveland and clippers (who played all of 1 round) for 3 out of 16 of the playoff teams

and it was rather obvious how much it needed every point it could get from shai as okc was a struggling shooting team of defensive specialist with only one other near all star level offensive player who played with a injured wrist

Shai and okc at the end of the day was a strong offense in a offensively down playoff year (which starts looking really even more down without outlier beatdowns like cleveland/miami added to the average) and despite all shai was more than arguably the best player in every series he played (jokic included, rather clearly actually statistically) and for the playoffs with the possible exception of 1 series giannis

It was a drop off no doubt, but like, it seems to be talked with zero context beyond the final ts%

Djoker · Post #143 » by **Djoker** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 3:28 am

Here are all of peak SGA's playoffs series in terms of scoring and team offensive efficiency.

2024 NOP: 27.3 ppg on 55.3 %TS (-2.1 rTS); -1.2 rORtg
2024 DAL: 32.2 ppg on 59.9 %TS (+2.0 rTS); -3.1 rORtg
2025 MEM: 27.8 ppg on 52.1 %TS (-4.8 rTS); +5.9 rORtg
2025 DEN: 29.7 ppg on 62.8 %TS (+5.6 rTS); -1.4 rORtg
2025 MIN: 31.4 ppg on 56.7 %TS (+0.3 rTS); +7.4 rORtg
2025 IND: 30.3 ppg on 56.1 %TS (-1.7 rTS); -2.7 rORtg

Breaking it down by series does not help his case. If anything it makes it look worse. Out of six series, he had one where he scored on good efficiency (2025 DEN) and then one more with decent efficiency (2024 DAL). The others were all poor, the 2025 Finals being particularly notable. The team offense also hasn't done well and to make matters worse, the team offense barely falls off (by one point per 100) when he goes to the bench.

As I've reiterated many times, it's still a small sample and there could be more positive data coming in the next few years that will make me feel better about his peak but then again there may not be. So far what we have doesn't look good. I don't know how people can keep on sugarcoating it LOL. They are certainly palatable numbers for a top 15 peak but they are not for a top 8 peak to me.

Cavsfansince84 · Post #144 » by **Cavsfansince84** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 3:43 am

Djoker wrote:Here are all of peak SGA's playoffs series in terms of scoring and team offensive efficiency.

2024 NOP: 27.3 ppg on 55.3 %TS (-2.1 rTS); -1.2 rORtg
2024 DAL: 32.2 ppg on 59.9 %TS (+2.0 rTS); -3.1 rORtg
2025 MEM: 27.8 ppg on 52.1 %TS (-4.8 rTS); +5.9 rORtg
2025 DEN: 29.7 ppg on 62.8 %TS (+5.6 rTS); -1.4 rORtg
2025 MIN: 31.4 ppg on 56.7 %TS (+0.3 rTS); +7.4 rORtg
2025 IND: 30.3 ppg on 56.1 %TS (-1.7 rTS); -2.7 rORtg

Breaking it down by series does not help his case. If anything it makes it look worse. Out of six series, he had one where he scored on good efficiency (2025 DEN) and then one more with decent efficiency (2024 DAL). The others were all poor, the 2025 Finals being particularly notable. The team offense also hasn't done well and to make matters worse, the team offense barely falls off (by one point per 100) when he goes to the bench.

As I've reiterated many times, it's still a small sample and there could be more positive data coming in the next few years that will make me feel better about his peak but then again there may not be. So far what we have doesn't look good. I don't know how people can keep on sugarcoating it LOL. They are certainly palatable numbers for a top 15 peak but they are not for a top 8 peak to me.

I don't think the difference between 57% ts and 59% is the difference between good and poor. Personally I think you sort of have it out for Shai for w/e reason. Games in the playoffs tend to get slowed down and be more grindy. Go look at MJ's ts% in the 96-98 playoffs. He was usually in the 50-56% range but people give him credit for winning. Now granted league avg ts% has gone up considerably but 50% is low in most any era since the 60's. Also, you can't entirely lay a team's ORtg at the feet of one player. So no I don't agree that 56% on large volume is bad even in the 2020's. Sometimes a team really needs a guy to eat up those possessions and get them points on low turnover economy. Especially as the playoffs wear on and the pressure goes up. Brown won fmvp last year with a 53.5% ts in the finals.

Djoker · Post #145 » by **Djoker** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 4:07 am

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
Djoker wrote:Here are all of peak SGA's playoffs series in terms of scoring and team offensive efficiency.

2024 NOP: 27.3 ppg on 55.3 %TS (-2.1 rTS); -1.2 rORtg
2024 DAL: 32.2 ppg on 59.9 %TS (+2.0 rTS); -3.1 rORtg
2025 MEM: 27.8 ppg on 52.1 %TS (-4.8 rTS); +5.9 rORtg
2025 DEN: 29.7 ppg on 62.8 %TS (+5.6 rTS); -1.4 rORtg
2025 MIN: 31.4 ppg on 56.7 %TS (+0.3 rTS); +7.4 rORtg
2025 IND: 30.3 ppg on 56.1 %TS (-1.7 rTS); -2.7 rORtg

Breaking it down by series does not help his case. If anything it makes it look worse. Out of six series, he had one where he scored on good efficiency (2025 DEN) and then one more with decent efficiency (2024 DAL). The others were all poor, the 2025 Finals being particularly notable. The team offense also hasn't done well and to make matters worse, the team offense barely falls off (by one point per 100) when he goes to the bench.

As I've reiterated many times, it's still a small sample and there could be more positive data coming in the next few years that will make me feel better about his peak but then again there may not be. So far what we have doesn't look good. I don't know how people can keep on sugarcoating it LOL. They are certainly palatable numbers for a top 15 peak but they are not for a top 8 peak to me.

I don't think the difference between 57% ts and 59% is the difference between good and poor. Personally I think you sort of have it out for Shai for w/e reason. Games in the playoffs tend to get slowed down and be more grindy. Go look at MJ's ts% in the 96-98 playoffs. He was usually in the 50-56% range but people give him credit for winning. Now granted league avg ts% has gone up considerably but 50% is low in most any era since the 60's. Also, you can't entirely lay a team's ORtg at the feet of one player. So no I don't agree that 56% on large volume is bad even in the 2020's. Sometimes a team really needs a guy to eat up those possessions and get them points on low turnover economy. Especially as the playoffs wear on and the pressure goes up. Brown won fmvp last year with a 53.5% ts in the finals.

1996-1998 MJ still had better rTS on average on much larger volume and the Bulls team offenses were much better. Oh and MJ's playoff ON-OFF signals even in 1997 and 1998 looked a ton better than Shai's. The team fell of a ton when MJ sat on the bench whereas OKC offense drops by 1 point per 100 when Shai sits. So it's not really the same at all. Second threepeat MJ looks considerably better in the playoffs.

I don't have anything against Shai. I am Canadian so I love the guy but he isn't a top 8 peak of the 21st century to me. Comparing him to Brown is just crazy IMO. Brown is not the sort of guy someone in this project should ever be compared to.

jalengreen · Post #146 » by **jalengreen** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 4:20 am

Shai's offensive on/off was +3.08 in the 2025 playoffs according to pbpstats. Likely considerably lower than it would be if not for awful 3PT shooting (they shot 32.2% from 3 with Shai on the court. 39.2% off court, so +7%). Every single one of their starters had a bad postseason shooting from 3 while Joe, Wiggins, Caruso gave good shooting off of the bench. Could blame Shai for that but wouldn't make much sense to me, he was generating plenty of good looks from 3 (the problem if anything was probably not creating easier looks around the rim)

Cavsfansince84 · Post #147 » by **Cavsfansince84** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 4:40 am

Djoker wrote:
1996-1998 MJ still had better rTS on average on much larger volume and the Bulls team offenses were much better. Oh and MJ's playoff ON-OFF signals even in 1997 and 1998 looked a ton better than Shai's. The team fell of a ton when MJ sat on the bench whereas OKC offense drops by 1 point per 100 when Shai sits. So it's not really the same at all. Second threepeat MJ looks considerably better in the playoffs.

I don't have anything against Shai. I am Canadian so I love the guy but he isn't a top 8 peak of the 21st century to me. Comparing him to Brown is just crazy IMO. Brown is not the sort of guy someone in this project should ever be compared to.

I doubt MJ's was better by much if you went series by series. People generally don't care though because he's MJ and they won. The whole reason for mentioning Brown was to demonstrate how guys win fmvp with quite low ts%' often because its the final series of a long season and guys get tight in the finals. Kobe's ts%'s in the 08-10 finals were 50.5-52.5-52.8. Again, teams need a scorer who can eat up possessions, get to the line and do it without a lot of turnovers. Shai did that and it got them to 68 wins and a title.

falcolombardi · Post #148 » by **falcolombardi** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 4:59 am

Djoker wrote:
Cavsfansince84 wrote:
Djoker wrote:Here are all of peak SGA's playoffs series in terms of scoring and team offensive efficiency.

2024 NOP: 27.3 ppg on 55.3 %TS (-2.1 rTS); -1.2 rORtg
2024 DAL: 32.2 ppg on 59.9 %TS (+2.0 rTS); -3.1 rORtg
2025 MEM: 27.8 ppg on 52.1 %TS (-4.8 rTS); +5.9 rORtg
2025 DEN: 29.7 ppg on 62.8 %TS (+5.6 rTS); -1.4 rORtg
2025 MIN: 31.4 ppg on 56.7 %TS (+0.3 rTS); +7.4 rORtg
2025 IND: 30.3 ppg on 56.1 %TS (-1.7 rTS); -2.7 rORtg

Breaking it down by series does not help his case. If anything it makes it look worse. Out of six series, he had one where he scored on good efficiency (2025 DEN) and then one more with decent efficiency (2024 DAL). The others were all poor, the 2025 Finals being particularly notable. The team offense also hasn't done well and to make matters worse, the team offense barely falls off (by one point per 100) when he goes to the bench.

As I've reiterated many times, it's still a small sample and there could be more positive data coming in the next few years that will make me feel better about his peak but then again there may not be. So far what we have doesn't look good. I don't know how people can keep on sugarcoating it LOL. They are certainly palatable numbers for a top 15 peak but they are not for a top 8 peak to me.

I don't think the difference between 57% ts and 59% is the difference between good and poor. Personally I think you sort of have it out for Shai for w/e reason. Games in the playoffs tend to get slowed down and be more grindy. Go look at MJ's ts% in the 96-98 playoffs. He was usually in the 50-56% range but people give him credit for winning. Now granted league avg ts% has gone up considerably but 50% is low in most any era since the 60's. Also, you can't entirely lay a team's ORtg at the feet of one player. So no I don't agree that 56% on large volume is bad even in the 2020's. Sometimes a team really needs a guy to eat up those possessions and get them points on low turnover economy. Especially as the playoffs wear on and the pressure goes up. Brown won fmvp last year with a 53.5% ts in the finals.

1996-1998 MJ still had better rTS on average on much larger volume and the Bulls team offenses were much better. Oh and MJ's playoff ON-OFF signals even in 1997 and 1998 looked a ton better than Shai's. The team fell of a ton when MJ sat on the bench whereas OKC offense drops by 1 point per 100 when Shai sits. So it's not really the same at all. Second threepeat MJ looks considerably better in the playoffs.

I don't have anything against Shai. I am Canadian so I love the guy but he isn't a top 8 peak of the 21st century to me. Comparing him to Brown is just crazy IMO. Brown is not the sort of guy someone in this project should ever be compared to.

Does jordan 96-98 still have significatively better rts without the first round beatdowns on teams like miami?

Like if shai had an amazing series vs memphis and raised his rts it would change literally nothingh for okc playoff record or how their run is evaluated other than saying they blew memphis by 20 points a game instead of 15

Djoker · Post #149 » by **Djoker** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 5:17 am

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
Djoker wrote:
1996-1998 MJ still had better rTS on average on much larger volume and the Bulls team offenses were much better. Oh and MJ's playoff ON-OFF signals even in 1997 and 1998 looked a ton better than Shai's. The team fell of a ton when MJ sat on the bench whereas OKC offense drops by 1 point per 100 when Shai sits. So it's not really the same at all. Second threepeat MJ looks considerably better in the playoffs.

I don't have anything against Shai. I am Canadian so I love the guy but he isn't a top 8 peak of the 21st century to me. Comparing him to Brown is just crazy IMO. Brown is not the sort of guy someone in this project should ever be compared to.

I doubt MJ's was better by much if you went series by series. People generally don't care though because he's MJ and they won. The whole reason for mentioning Brown was to demonstrate how guys win fmvp with quite low ts%' often because its the final series of a long season and guys get tight in the finals. Kobe's ts%'s in the 08-10 finals were 50.5-52.5-52.8. Again, teams need a scorer who can eat up possessions, get to the line and do it without a lot of turnovers. Shai did that and it got them to 68 wins and a title.

1996-1998 MJ was better. I don't want to list out every MJ series because that would be pointless in the context of this thread which is 21st century but I'll list out Kobe's series from 2008-2010 to illustrate my point. And that's relevant because Kobe vs. Shai is an actual debate here.

Kobe Bryant - 2008-2010 Playoffs

2008 DEN: 33.5 ppg on 59.4 %TS (+5.9 rTS); +11.6 rORtg
2008 UTA: 33.2 ppg on 62.9 %TS (+7.6 rTS); +10.0 rORtg
2008 SAS: 29.2 ppg on 58.5 %TS (+6.8 rTS); +1.3 rORtg
2008 BOS: 25.7 ppg on 50.5 %TS (-0.3 rTS); +4.6 rORtg

2009 UTA: 27.4 ppg on 57.0 %TS (+1.8 rTS); +6.8 rORtg
2009 HOU: 27.4 ppg on 53.5 %TS (+1.9 rTS); +4.4 rORtg
2009 DEN: 34.0 ppg on 62.7 %TS (+9.1 rTS); +6.7 rORtg
2009 ORL: 32.4 ppg on 52.5 %TS (+1.7 rTS); +8.1 rORtg

2010 OKC: 23.5 ppg on 50.7 %TS (-2.1 rTS); +0.9 rORtg
2010 UTA: 32.0 ppg on 61.1 %TS (+6.9 rTS); +15.3 rORtg
2010 PHO: 33.7 ppg on 63.7 %TS (+10.4 rTS); +13.3 rORtg
2010 BOS: 28.6 ppg on 52.8 %TS (-0.6 rTS); +1.4 rORtg

And Kobe also had clearly superior playoff ON-OFF as well.

Kobe definitely had a few duds like against OKC in 2010 and a truly historic Boston D in 2008 but he was generally a lot better. Both in terms of averages and from series to series. And his team did a lot better when he was on the court and in a relative sense much worse when he was off of it.

jalengreen wrote:Shai's offensive on/off was +3.08 in the 2025 playoffs according to pbpstats. Likely considerably lower than it would be if not for awful 3PT shooting (they shot 32.2% from 3 with Shai on the court. 39.2% off court, so +7%). Every single one of their starters had a bad postseason shooting from 3 while Joe, Wiggins, Caruso gave good shooting off of the bench. Could blame Shai for that but wouldn't make much sense to me, he was generating plenty of good looks from 3 (the problem if anything was probably not creating easier looks around the rim)

This is a valid point. Shooting variance sucks. But how much do you think it makes a difference? If a lot, then should we dock players for their team's incredibly good 3pt shooting luck too? I don't know how I feel about that. Not to mention it's tough to figure out if guys were missing shots just due to simple variance or there are other factors at play ex. they were open but weren't shooting in rhythm. I can mentally curve him up a little bit. Ben on his latest podcast said that Kobe's Lakers too had bad shooting luck and if adjusting for that Kobe had between a +10 and +11 offensive rating ON court in those playoffs. I don't think SGA touches that kind of dominance with any sort of adjustment.

But yea it's interesting to talk about.

lessthanjake · Post #150 » by **lessthanjake** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 5:27 am

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
Djoker wrote:
1996-1998 MJ still had better rTS on average on much larger volume and the Bulls team offenses were much better. Oh and MJ's playoff ON-OFF signals even in 1997 and 1998 looked a ton better than Shai's. The team fell of a ton when MJ sat on the bench whereas OKC offense drops by 1 point per 100 when Shai sits. So it's not really the same at all. Second threepeat MJ looks considerably better in the playoffs.

I don't have anything against Shai. I am Canadian so I love the guy but he isn't a top 8 peak of the 21st century to me. Comparing him to Brown is just crazy IMO. Brown is not the sort of guy someone in this project should ever be compared to.

I doubt MJ's was better by much if you went series by series. People generally don't care though because he's MJ and they won. The whole reason for mentioning Brown was to demonstrate how guys win fmvp with quite low ts%' often because its the final series of a long season and guys get tight in the finals. Kobe's ts%'s in the 08-10 finals were 50.5-52.5-52.8. Again, teams need a scorer who can eat up possessions, get to the line and do it without a lot of turnovers. Shai did that and it got them to 68 wins and a title.

2025 SGA had an overall rTS% of +0.2 (calculated using a TS-attempt weighted average of his rTS% in each series). According to Thinking Basketball, Jordan had a playoff rTS% of +3.8 in 1996, +0.2 in 1997, and +2.4 in 1998. So it was a decent bit better over the course of the second-three-peat, but 1997 was an essentially identical rTS%. To me, 1997 Jordan and 2025 SGA are actually pretty similar. Their teams did similarly well in the regular season and then they both won the title while taking a dip in scoring efficiency in the playoffs but being their team’s clear focal point. Jordan didn’t dip as much scoring-volume-wise in the playoffs as SGA did, and the Bulls offense as a whole was better in the playoffs than the Thunder’s was. Jordan also had a 9.9 playoff BPM that year, compared to 8.3 for 2025 SGA. So I think I’d view 1997 Jordan as definitely being better in the playoffs than 2025 SGA was, though there’s some similarities. That said, I think I’d also view 2025 SGA as definitely being better in the regular season than 1997 Jordan was. So the overall picture is roughly a wash in my view, with a preference depending on how one weighs regular season and playoffs. One might also just prefer 1997 Jordan on the basis that we see better stuff from Jordan in surrounding years (though of course there’s only one surrounding year for SGA at this point). For me, there’s not a lot in it. Which reflects pretty well on the greatness of 2025 SGA’s year for me, because 1997 Jordan was still really great!

-Luke- · Post #151 » by **-Luke-** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 6:50 am

Didn't have a lot of time this week, so this is more gut feling and eye test than anything else.

First of all, I completely agree with homecourtloss on this point:

homecourtloss wrote:I don’t think there’s much difference between these players at this level, so to me 9 or 15…There’s no real contention for me. [...]

Giannis, Wade, Kobe, Dirk, Kawhi, SGA, Durant, CP3, Nash... You could post every single permutation from this group here, and I wouldn't think the poster was crazy.

With that out of the way, I stay with my two votes for #7 and #8 from the last thread:

7. Dwyane Wade 2006 (2009)
8. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2025)
9. Giannis Antetokounmpo (2021)
10. Dirk Nowitzki (2011)

For Wade and Shai I'll just copy what I wrote in the last thread:

-Luke- wrote:[b]list, meaning the youngest player at he time I consider his peak. He was fantastic in 2009, but due to a lack of playoff data (because of a mediocre to bad team he had to carry) I cannot put that season ahead of the title run in '06. In 2006 the Heat had a big name team on paper, but with almost everybody out of their prime, in some cases way out. It was 24-year old D-Wade who lead this Team to the title. A lot has been said about his finals performance (goddammit...), but his series against the Pistons in the semis was equally impressive, if not more. 26.7 ppg on 68.4 TS% against a Pistons team that was still very good defensively.

SGA at 8. Very strong MVP season (deserved MVP over a player who I'd probably have in my top 3 if it was five-year peak/prime), leading a team to 68 wins that was very deep and has high quality players, but was still pretty young and inexperienced. Drop in the playoffs, yes. But a bit overblown in my mind.

2021 Giannis - not his best regular Season, but still elite on both ends of the court. Topped off with an awesome playoff run. It may hurt his case a bit that he missed the last two games of the Hawks series, and the Bucks won both rather easily. But his showing in the NBA Finals after everybody thought he would be out for weeks/months more than makes up for it in my eyes.

With Dirk, it's not easy to define his peak. His athletic peak was way earlier. But 2011 was the most well-rounded version of Dirk. He was drafted in 1998. That's 13 years between draft and peak. I wonder if there's another star in NBA history to whom that applies. Maybe LeBron if you define his peak as 2016 or 2018. 2011 Dirk has probably the most consistent playoff run of all candidates. The finals series against the Heat is arguably the "worst" series for him. In the two series against the Lakers and OKC he shot 56.4 / 54.5 / 96.1. That's 74 out of 77 from the line. OKC threw five or six different players at him, but he had an answer to everything.

eminence · Post #152 » by **eminence** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 1:11 pm

7. Kobe Bryant - 2009 - Great/versatile offensive talent/scorer, PO proven, shown with two fairly different big men stars (Shaq/Pau). Older Kobe felt much more inevitable offensively than the earlier variants. Defensively fine (not All-D worthy). Not a top tier playmaker for others, but elite ballhandling/turnover control with strong scoring is a great place to be with your primary perimeter offensive star. MJ/Kobe/SGA have arguably shown it as the most successful offensive archetype of the 3pt era.

8. Dwyane Wade - 2006 - Pre-injury Wade may have been the best driver ever. A ton of scoring pressure on the rim. Decent playmaking through that pressure alone, if limited in other areas. A good defender, may have deserved a bit more awards acclaim there. Certainly a better defender than Kobe in '06. He+Shaq played well to beat an excellent Pistons squad and then a bigtime offensive carry against the Mavs in the final as Shaq collapsed.

9. Dirk Nowitzki - 2011 - RS peak was earlier, '03, '05-'07, but I'm generally a bit unimpressed with those PO appearances (injury in '03, horrific defensive performance against Nash in '05, terrible all around in '07). '06 would be a reasonable pick here. Not a perimeter guy, so a bit harder to get him the ball, but provided you can get it to him, Dirk in this era gave you just about the highest offensive baseline there's ever been. When he wasn't being asked to play C and had a real rim protector next to him was plenty useful on defense/on the glass. The names played make the PO run seem a bit more impressive than it was in my estimation, but the names are absolutely elite - Kobe/KD/Bron might be the best lineup ever.

10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - 2025 - RS only SGA would be in my top 5, and in the future I expect him to move up. But yes, I was underwhelmed by the PO runs so far. He's young and should have plenty of opportunities with the team OKC has around him. Another player I see as roughly in the MJ mold, does a bit more of his getting into position on the ball as opposed to MJ/Kobe. Another decent defending lead guard, defensive load is pretty light with how deep the Thunder are with perimeter defenders.

Djoker · Post #153 » by **Djoker** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 9:28 pm

So Ben just listed out the ON Court offenses over 3-year stretches, adjusted for shooting luck. Here are some of the names:

Kevin Durant (2017-2019) +14
Steve Nash +12
Kawhi Leonard +11
Kobe Bryant (2008-2010) +10
Chris Paul +10
.
.
.
Shai Gilgeous Alexander (2024-2025) +5
.
James Harden +3

The luck adjustment does boost SGA significantly... Without it, he's around zero.

One_and_Done · Post #154 » by **One_and_Done** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 10:05 pm

Djoker wrote:So Ben just listed out the ON Court offenses over 3-year stretches, adjusted for shooting luck. Here are some of the names:

Kevin Durant (2017-2019) +14
Steve Nash +12
Kawhi Leonard +11
Kobe Bryant (2008-2010) +10
Chris Paul +10
.
.
.
Shai Gilgeous Alexander (2024-2025) +5
.
James Harden +3

The luck adjustment does boost SGA significantly... Without it, he's around zero.

So you'll be changing your vote to KD?

Djoker · Post #155 » by **Djoker** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 10:15 pm

One_and_Done wrote:
Djoker wrote:So Ben just listed out the ON Court offenses over 3-year stretches, adjusted for shooting luck. Here are some of the names:

Kevin Durant (2017-2019) +14
Steve Nash +12
Kawhi Leonard +11
Kobe Bryant (2008-2010) +10
Chris Paul +10
.
.
.
Shai Gilgeous Alexander (2024-2025) +5
.
James Harden +3

The luck adjustment does boost SGA significantly... Without it, he's around zero.

So you'll be changing your vote to KD?

No, because Curry was the one driving the impact at Golden State. At OKC, Durant was at +7.

One_and_Done · Post #156 » by **One_and_Done** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 10:32 pm

Djoker wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
Djoker wrote:So Ben just listed out the ON Court offenses over 3-year stretches, adjusted for shooting luck. Here are some of the names:

Kevin Durant (2017-2019) +14
Steve Nash +12
Kawhi Leonard +11
Kobe Bryant (2008-2010) +10
Chris Paul +10
.
.
.
Shai Gilgeous Alexander (2024-2025) +5
.
James Harden +3

The luck adjustment does boost SGA significantly... Without it, he's around zero.

So you'll be changing your vote to KD?

No, because Curry was the one driving the impact at Golden State. At OKC, Durant was at +7.

So you must have Nash and Kawhi in your top 4 then, right?

homecourtloss · Post #157 » by **homecourtloss** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 10:37 pm

falcolombardi wrote:
Djoker wrote:
Cavsfansince84 wrote:
I don't think the difference between 57% ts and 59% is the difference between good and poor. Personally I think you sort of have it out for Shai for w/e reason. Games in the playoffs tend to get slowed down and be more grindy. Go look at MJ's ts% in the 96-98 playoffs. He was usually in the 50-56% range but people give him credit for winning. Now granted league avg ts% has gone up considerably but 50% is low in most any era since the 60's. Also, you can't entirely lay a team's ORtg at the feet of one player. So no I don't agree that 56% on large volume is bad even in the 2020's. Sometimes a team really needs a guy to eat up those possessions and get them points on low turnover economy. Especially as the playoffs wear on and the pressure goes up. Brown won fmvp last year with a 53.5% ts in the finals.

1996-1998 MJ still had better rTS on average on much larger volume and the Bulls team offenses were much better. Oh and MJ's playoff ON-OFF signals even in 1997 and 1998 looked a ton better than Shai's. The team fell of a ton when MJ sat on the bench whereas OKC offense drops by 1 point per 100 when Shai sits. So it's not really the same at all. Second threepeat MJ looks considerably better in the playoffs.

I don't have anything against Shai. I am Canadian so I love the guy but he isn't a top 8 peak of the 21st century to me. Comparing him to Brown is just crazy IMO. Brown is not the sort of guy someone in this project should ever be compared to.

Does jordan 96-98 still have significatively better rts without the first round beatdowns on teams like miami?

Like if shai had an amazing series vs memphis and raised his rts it would change literally nothingh for okc playoff record or how their run is evaluated other than saying they blew memphis by 20 points a game instead of 15

He’s around +1 rTS from 1996–1998 if you take out round 1 games. To be honest, it’s really quite pedestrian given how high his FT rate was on most touch fouls on the perimeter.

But these Bulls teams had high rORtgs, so while Jordan’s efficiency was mediocre at best, the Bulls had good offenses due to a combination of a great system, offensive rebounding, Pippen’s playmaking, Jordan’s turnover economy and playmaking, and so on. SGA’s teams haven’t had these.

falcolombardi · Post #158 » by **falcolombardi** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 10:55 pm

homecourtloss wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
Djoker wrote:
1996-1998 MJ still had better rTS on average on much larger volume and the Bulls team offenses were much better. Oh and MJ's playoff ON-OFF signals even in 1997 and 1998 looked a ton better than Shai's. The team fell of a ton when MJ sat on the bench whereas OKC offense drops by 1 point per 100 when Shai sits. So it's not really the same at all. Second threepeat MJ looks considerably better in the playoffs.

I don't have anything against Shai. I am Canadian so I love the guy but he isn't a top 8 peak of the 21st century to me. Comparing him to Brown is just crazy IMO. Brown is not the sort of guy someone in this project should ever be compared to.

Does jordan 96-98 still have significatively better rts without the first round beatdowns on teams like miami?

Like if shai had an amazing series vs memphis and raised his rts it would change literally nothingh for okc playoff record or how their run is evaluated other than saying they blew memphis by 20 points a game instead of 15

He’s around +1 rTS from 1996–1998 if you take out round 1 games. To be honest, it’s really quite pedestrian given how high his FT rate was on most touch fouls on the perimeter.

But these Bulls teams had high rORtgs, so while Jordan’s efficiency was mediocre at best, the Bulls had good offenses due to a combination of a great system, offensive rebounding, Pippen’s playmaking, Jordan’s turnover economy and playmaking, and so on. SGA’s teams haven’t had these.

Correct me if i am wrong but does this say 98 or 97 jordan got more free throws than shai despite taking a career low amount of shots at the paint? That is rather striking for all the grief shai has got (while being a league leader in drives last 2 years)

I would argue shai turnover economy and ability to get to the line or playmake after drawing help was the only thingh keeping okc offense above water for much of the playoffs and even regular season (when he had a striking on/off offensively for all we are drawing conclusions from the volatility of playoffs sample size on/off)

Like djoker showed from ben data his +5 luck adjusted r-ortg in a team of defensive specialists with limited offensive skillsets using so much energy on defense (and a wrist injured and still developing 3rd year co star with well below average shooting efficiency after the first round) is a rather solid result

falcolombardi · Post #159 » by **falcolombardi** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 11:05 pm

One_and_Done wrote:
Djoker wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:So you'll be changing your vote to KD?

No, because Curry was the one driving the impact at Golden State. At OKC, Durant was at +7.

So you must have Nash and Kawhi in your top 4 then, right?

Now i wonder what jokic off rating is by the same metrics since his offensive cast is probably closer to shai's than it is to durant's

homecourtloss · Post #160 » by **homecourtloss** » Sun Sep 21, 2025 11:26 pm

falcolombardi wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
Does jordan 96-98 still have significatively better rts without the first round beatdowns on teams like miami?

Like if shai had an amazing series vs memphis and raised his rts it would change literally nothingh for okc playoff record or how their run is evaluated other than saying they blew memphis by 20 points a game instead of 15

He’s around +1 rTS from 1996–1998 if you take out round 1 games. To be honest, it’s really quite pedestrian given how high his FT rate was on most touch fouls on the perimeter.

But these Bulls teams had high rORtgs, so while Jordan’s efficiency was mediocre at best, the Bulls had good offenses due to a combination of a great system, offensive rebounding, Pippen’s playmaking, Jordan’s turnover economy and playmaking, and so on. SGA’s teams haven’t had these.

Correct me if i am wrong but does this say 98 or 97 jordan got more free throws than shai despite taking a career low amount of shots at the paint? That is rather striking for all the grief shai has got (while being a league leader in drives last 2 years)

I would argue shai turnover economy and ability to get to the line or playmake after drawing help was the only thingh keeping okc offense above water for much of the playoffs and even regular season (when he had a striking on/off offensively for all we are drawing conclusions from the volatility of playoffs sample size on/off)

Like djoker showed from ben data his +5 luck adjusted r-ortg in a team of defensive specialists with limited offensive skillsets using so much energy on defense (and a wrist injured and still developing 3rd year co star with well below average shooting efficiency after the first round) is a rather solid result

No, you’re correct—1996 to 1998 Jordan was the recipient of an extremely generous whistle on many, many touch fouls on the perimeter and quite a few away from the ball fouls.

See what happens in the 1996 Finals in which a generous whistle made the scoring numbers look respectable.

Spoiler: