2025 Offseason Thread Vol.6

[SA37]

Spoiler:

List is pretty lazy, but at the same time I think people really underestimate simple math. If you take the two best players from every team in the NBA, that's already 60 players. So being ranked around that zone pretty much is an acknowledgement that on average that said player can be a top2 guy on any given team. I wouldn't really take it as some big disrespect.

At the end of the day, it's just some random journalist sharing his list that he put together quickly and without much thought.

It's probably slightly low, but he is ahead of RJ Barrett (100), Beal (86), Powell (82), DeRozan (80), Lavine (72), and Coby White (71) while only slightly behind Lamelo Ball (63) and Austin Reaves (60).

Still, the list is incredibly skewed towards role players who have none of the responsibilities top-2 guys have. And the recency bias is glaring.

It's not a serious list, not based on anything analytic.

Herro ranking from advanced metrics in 24/25:
#32 based on total win shares (#53 based on win shares / 48)
#19 based on VORP
#36 based on BPM
#35 based on PER

Herro ranking from credible models in 24/25:
Herro was #49 based on DARKO
Herro was #62 based on LEBRON
Herro was #35 based on EPM

Probably a fair ranking for Herro is around 35-50 range, considering also that a lot of these advanced metrics rate role players highly when they play off of main creators and I also didn't filter for tiny sample sizes of guys only playing like 10 games or smth. like that.
You can argue he loses like 5-10 spots because he is going to miss the start of the season like 10-15 games, #68 is just not really anything objective, but clear subjective bias.

I hate advanced stats.

In any case, it's less about if I agree with the ESPN rankings (I don't) and if they're consistent in their analysis. So based on where they put other guys who I think are comparable to Herro, I think Herro's ranking is ok.

Personally, the way I approach ranking players is, if every NBA player were a free agent, what order do these guys get picked in. And I think there is a reasonable chance that Herro gets selected in the 3rd round, so 61-90. My guess is he'd be a late 2nd rounder to an early 3rd rounder, so 45-75, basically.

[Hallstar]

Spoiler:

It's probably slightly low, but he is ahead of RJ Barrett (100), Beal (86), Powell (82), DeRozan (80), Lavine (72), and Coby White (71) while only slightly behind Lamelo Ball (63) and Austin Reaves (60).

Still, the list is incredibly skewed towards role players who have none of the responsibilities top-2 guys have. And the recency bias is glaring.

It's not a serious list, not based on anything analytic.

Herro ranking from advanced metrics in 24/25:
#32 based on total win shares (#53 based on win shares / 48)
#19 based on VORP
#36 based on BPM
#35 based on PER

Herro ranking from credible models in 24/25:
Herro was #49 based on DARKO
Herro was #62 based on LEBRON
Herro was #35 based on EPM

Probably a fair ranking for Herro is around 35-50 range, considering also that a lot of these advanced metrics rate role players highly when they play off of main creators and I also didn't filter for tiny sample sizes of guys only playing like 10 games or smth. like that.
You can argue he loses like 5-10 spots because he is going to miss the start of the season like 10-15 games, #68 is just not really anything objective, but clear subjective bias.

I hate advanced stats.

In any case, it's less about if I agree with the ESPN rankings (I don't) and if they're consistent in their analysis. So based on where they put other guys who I think are comparable to Herro, I think Herro's ranking is ok.

Personally, the way I approach ranking players is, if every NBA player were a free agent, what order do these guys get picked in. And I think there is a reasonable chance that Herro gets selected in the 3rd round, so 61-90. My guess is he'd be a late 2nd rounder to an early 3rd rounder, so 45-75, basically.

He's behind Lu Dortz, these lists are for engagement farming.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Spoiler:

It's not a serious list, not based on anything analytic.

Herro ranking from advanced metrics in 24/25:
#32 based on total win shares (#53 based on win shares / 48)
#19 based on VORP
#36 based on BPM
#35 based on PER

Herro ranking from credible models in 24/25:
Herro was #49 based on DARKO
Herro was #62 based on LEBRON
Herro was #35 based on EPM

Probably a fair ranking for Herro is around 35-50 range, considering also that a lot of these advanced metrics rate role players highly when they play off of main creators and I also didn't filter for tiny sample sizes of guys only playing like 10 games or smth. like that.
You can argue he loses like 5-10 spots because he is going to miss the start of the season like 10-15 games, #68 is just not really anything objective, but clear subjective bias.

I hate advanced stats.

In any case, it's less about if I agree with the ESPN rankings (I don't) and if they're consistent in their analysis. So based on where they put other guys who I think are comparable to Herro, I think Herro's ranking is ok.

Personally, the way I approach ranking players is, if every NBA player were a free agent, what order do these guys get picked in. And I think there is a reasonable chance that Herro gets selected in the 3rd round, so 61-90. My guess is he'd be a late 2nd rounder to an early 3rd rounder, so 45-75, basically.

He's behind Lu Dortz, these lists are for engagement farming.

Curious where you rate him?

[BadMofoPimp]

Precious deal is non-guaranteed.

[MartyConlonJr]

Herro's ranking look egregious because he was an All-Star, aka top 24 players in the league.

68 is almost 72 (24 x 3 = 72), like you would choose him in the 6th team of All Stars.

In reality he was never the 24th best player in the league, he beat out Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler for spots who were on the Heat roster at points, and both are/were better players.

A number of injuries or situations prevented better players from making the All-Star game but without looking I assume that would put Herro in the 30's or 40's. Maybe some players were on bad rosters and you have to be near a winning team to usually qualify, putting him maybe lower, but not 68 lower.

His ranking seems to be him paying for the playoff debacle I'd guess, as it really raised questions about him as a top player.

[twix2500]

I wish the Heat got Precious in earlier. Because I think Spo has a scheme that can really make use of Achiuwa, like Spo did with past players like Olynyk, Leonard, Martin and Tucker. One unique reason I like Achiuwa here is he will RUN! Achiuwa has great instincts to get out on fastbreaks.

[twix2500]

Bam, Ware, Jovic and Achiuwa, all four can play with each other.

[TroubleS0me]

what is Precious Achiuwa
gonna do tho?

beside give Bam a rest

[Vertical Limit]

Read on Twitter

Shaq Diesel show yourself! You should not be promoting gambling and giving out picks when you don’t have an edge. This is a bad look and some Heat fan degenerates who keep up with 5reasons might actually think you’re a profitable bettor and want to follow your picks because of your platform and lose their money in the process. This is a bad look.

Gambling has gotten so out of hand, it is so available and in your face everywhere you go..

I used to bet on sports… even though ive cashed big several times, lost as well.. would mostly bet on college football/mma/tennis/nfl and college bball.. i gave it up last year.. havent even been tempted once this year to reload my accounts which ive disabled and go at it again.. and usually i always looked forward to college football betting but im done..

I dont even need gamblers anonymous or the hotline .. all i gotta do is see how polluted that stuff has been to social norms, people dont even go out anymore and ruin their lives with it for me to be like, yea this stuff is dirty let me get out of it.

I used to hate the DM’s or the conversations at the table im eating with friends and sometimes family be about betting lines..

[heatwillbeback]

Im perfectly fine adding Precious. Solid 15 min a game reserve.

But im saying this now. If we have to attach a pick to get under the tax again near the deadline, fn shoot me.

[Hallstar]

I hate advanced stats.

In any case, it's less about if I agree with the ESPN rankings (I don't) and if they're consistent in their analysis. So based on where they put other guys who I think are comparable to Herro, I think Herro's ranking is ok.

Personally, the way I approach ranking players is, if every NBA player were a free agent, what order do these guys get picked in. And I think there is a reasonable chance that Herro gets selected in the 3rd round, so 61-90. My guess is he'd be a late 2nd rounder to an early 3rd rounder, so 45-75, basically.

He's behind Lu Dortz, these lists are for engagement farming.

Curious where you rate him?

He's easily in the 35-50 range, I can accept that jumble and that has to do with lack of playoff success and lack of accolades . No playoff team has only 1 top 50 player, what makes us special that our leading scorer isn't one.

[twix2500]

what is Precious Achiuwa
gonna do tho?

beside give Bam a rest

Umm that is what you suppose to add around your star. Players that give him some relief so Bam can use that energy as a scorer.

[Wiltside]

Nice, Lowry deal goes fully circle. I'm happy to have Precious back - he's a competent big, even if he isn't a world beater. He'll actually work well with Niko in that 2nd unit as a lob threat.

Big rotation of Adebayo, Ware, Jovic and Achiuwa is pretty versatile and fun. Crazy that Bam is now the old timer out there.

[twix2500]

Nice, Lowry deal goes fully circle. I'm happy to have Precious back - he's a competent big, even if he isn't a world beater. He'll actually work well with Niko in that 2nd unit as a lob threat.

Big rotation of Adebayo, Ware, Jovic and Achiuwa is pretty versatile and fun. Crazy that Bam is now the old timer out there.

A lot of athletic defenders. Bam, Ware, Achiuwa, Johnson, Wiggins, Larsson, Mitchell and Smith.

[contract]

I wish the Heat got Precious in earlier. Because I think Spo has a scheme that can really make use of Achiuwa, like Spo did with past players like Olynyk, Leonard, Martin and Tucker. One unique reason I like Achiuwa here is he will RUN! Achiuwa has great instincts to get out on fastbreaks.

It's a non-guaranteed contract, so Precious may not be around long.

[contract]

what is Precious Achiuwa
gonna do tho?

beside give Bam a rest

Umm that is what you suppose to add around your star. Players that give him some relief so Bam can use that energy as a scorer.

Bam is not going to be a scorer. It's past time to throw in the towel on that one.

[twix2500]

I wish the Heat got Precious in earlier. Because I think Spo has a scheme that can really make use of Achiuwa, like Spo did with past players like Olynyk, Leonard, Martin and Tucker. One unique reason I like Achiuwa here is he will RUN! Achiuwa has great instincts to get out on fastbreaks.

It's a non-guaranteed contract, so Precious may not be around long.

It doesn’t mean he will not be around. It’s just an exit plan if everything doesn’t work out or flexibility. I expect the Heat to be looking to consolidate the roster in a trade by the trade deadline. If the season if flailing they can release Achiuwa

[twix2500]

what is Precious Achiuwa
gonna do tho?

beside give Bam a rest

Umm that is what you suppose to add around your star. Players that give him some relief so Bam can use that energy as a scorer.

Bam is not going to be a scorer. It's past time to throw in the towel on that one.

Let him fail trying. You have to build around someone.

[contract]

Umm that is what you suppose to add around your star. Players that give him some relief so Bam can use that energy as a scorer.

Bam is not going to be a scorer. It's past time to throw in the towel on that one.

Let him fail trying. You have to build around someone.

I don't think it's a matter of failing. Some guys just don't think like scorers. He's simply OK with letting other guys have the ball and take the shots.

[twix2500]

Bam is not going to be a scorer. It's past time to throw in the towel on that one.

Let him fail trying. You have to build around someone.

I don't think it's a matter of failing. Some guys just don't think like scorers. He's simply OK with letting other guys have the ball and take the shots.

He asked for it, and the Heat are building around that. If he doesn’t step up, yes it’s a failure. One of the reasons he asked to play power forward was because of the physical wear it put on him and the energy that is spent. So they got him Ware.

“I have to collaborate with Spo,” Adebayo says. “Because he knows I’m ambitious. I want to have a bigger load. I want to have a bigger responsibility on this team, and not just on the defensive end.”

It would take a lot more off my plate to do other things,” Adebayo said

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nba/miami-heat/article293455389.html#storylink=cpy

Team president Pat Riley told his big man last summer to start shooting at least 15 shots a game.

"This year, I went into the [season] saying I'm going to average this and shoot this and I'm living by that," Adebayo told FOX Sports. "It has helped the team. It's helped me. And it's helped us win games."

He has never averaged 15 fga or more yet. The front office is putting the ball in Bam and Spo hands to make it work