Shaq's defense vs. Jokic's offense

[CumberlandPosey]

Shaqs defense.thats a new one.interested to read the gymnastics...

[kcktiny]

Does Shaq's defense in the interior sufficiently make up the offensive gap, if you believe there is one?

Shaq was a vastly better defender than Jokic. And what offensive gap are you taking about? There is none. It's an easy case to say Shaq was better on offense.

Shaq's first 3 years in the league (1992-93 to 1994-95, ages 20-22) he lead the league in points scored (6585, 27.3 pts/g). He was 2nd in the league in offensive rebounds (1054), 1st in 2pt FG% (58.4%) for anyone with 5000+ minutes played, 2nd in FTAs (2425, 10.1 FTA/g), and even though he shot only a 56% FT% was 4th in FTM (1353).

What was Jokic doing ages 20-22, his first 3 seasons (2015-16 to 2017-18) in the league? 43rd in most points scored (3402), 15th in offensive rebounds (588), 12th in highest 2pt FG% (57.1%) for anyone with 5000+ minutes played, 51st in most FTAs (731), 47th in FTM (608).

Guess there was a huge gap - favor of Shaq.

Defensively? Shaq those 3 seasons 709 blocks, Jokic his first 3 seasons just 166 blocks. Orlando Shaq's first 3 seasons the Magic as a team allowed a league 5th lowest 47.2% 2pt FG%. Jokic's Nuggets his first 3 years in the league? Denver allowed the 5th highest/worst 2pt FG% in the league at 51.4%.

How about Shaq's 8 years (1996-97 to 2003-04) with the Lakers compared to Jokic's last 8 seasons with Denver (2017-18 to 2024-25)?

These 8 seasons Shaq leads the Lakers in minutes played, the Lakers allowed a league 5th lowest 45.4% opponent 2pt FG%. Shaq blocks 1278 shots, 5th most by a player in the league, and no one else on the Lakers blocks more than 446.

Shaq also scores the 2nd most points among all players in the league (13895, 27.0 pts/g), shoots the highest 2pt FG% at 57.6% among players with 5000+ minutes played, grabs the most offensive rebounds (1957), attempts by far the most FTAs (5572), and despite shooting just a 53% FT% makes the 6th most FTM (2971). The Lakers average a 57-25 W-L record over 8 seasons.

Jokic's 8 seasons with Denver he leads them in minutes played, the Nuggets allow a league 9th highest/worst 53.6% opponent 2pt FG%. Jokic blocks just 431 shots, only the 34th most by a player in the league.

Jokic scores the 2nd most points by a player in the league (14193, but just 24.0 pts/g), shoots just the 29th highest 2pt FG% (61.4%) among players with 5000+ minutes played, grabs just the 7th most offensive rebounds (1590), attempts just the 14th most FTAs (3132), makes just the 13th most FTM (2582). The Nuggets average a W-L record between 51-31 and 52-30.

Shaq scored better, shot better relative to the rest of the league, attempted far more FTAs (getting far more opponents into foul trouble and sent to the bench), was the much better offensive rebounder compared to Jokic. And most important, he did this committing far fewer turnovers (1446) than Jokic did (1901).

How about Shaq's offense vs Jokic's defense which do you prefer?

I would take Shaq's defense over Jokic's offense, Shaq's offense over Jokic's offense, Shaq's offense over Jokic's defense, and Shaq's defense over Jokic's defense.

[dhsilv2]

Shaq has really weak portability defensively - his PNR coverage was a liability against Mike Bibby in 2002, I can't even fathom how big of a problem it would've been nowadays.

But he played in an era of low pace / very mid offensive level / mid talent on perimeter - and there, he was indeed net positive in 2002 in above average defensive team, and he was very net positive on the best playoff team defensively in 2001, and net positive on the best defense in the league in 2000.

Jokic would've been a better defender than right now in that era as well, but still not as good as Shaq, I guess.

I guess the main difference is that Jokic is much more consistent regular season performer. Better defense vs worse offense is just a matter of choice.

Sure but Bibby would have torched Jokic too. Agree with the rest.

Jokic has foot speed issues in the pick and roll, but he also had really active hands and stays with plays more than Shaq. Bibby wasn't THAT fast or good down hill. Jokic would have done better imo.

[dhsilv2]

You forget that Jokic laps Shaq in the steals department. Very hard for Centers to rack up a stat like that since C's rarely get the ball.

I don't think the defensive gap is such a clear slam dunk in Shaq's favor when the playmaking gap is just as huge if not bigger.

I don't think either is a slam dunk. That's why I made the thread.

Also I don't need my center to get steals nearly as much as I need him protecting the paint. A 1% steal advantage for Jokic to be exact, which is good and everything, but not something you can rely on for a possession-to-possession basis like a guy who can and will threaten to block your shot if you drive.

1 steal per 100 will reduce the other team's scoring output today by about 1.14 points all else equal.

Reducing a 60% shot to 55% would take 11 shots against you to offset. And a 5% reduction is pretty good. And that's assuming you don't foul. 1 shooting foul gives up 1.52 on a 76% free throw shooter (about average) vs 1.2 points on that 60% shot at the rim. So that's 3 more contest needed. SO 14 contests reducing shots by 5% if you foul one more time than another player.

Defense isn't THIS simple, but it illustrates the value of turnovers if you don't get them without gambling which leads to uncontested dunks and layups. And jokic very much gets turnovers without gambling.

Now Shaq forces more jump shots and all that so again it's not a perfect system. But it gives some more more thought on why how Jokic play makes on defense has more value than people are granting it.

[dhsilv2]

*Sidenote. Robert Horry was definitely the best defender on the 3-peat Lakers. Dude was a monster on that end and would be an extremely valuable player today. He could have started on any title team in the last 10 years.

Please ... I know that on this board seems like The Mamba never existed, but please...

That's not a knock on Kobe. Horry was an elite defender...people really seriously underrate that man. Not saying you can't argue for Kobe here, but it's not an knock on Kobe to say someone like Horry was better defensively.

[kcktiny]

Horry was an elite defender...people really seriously underrate that man. Not saying you can't argue for Kobe here, but it's not an knock on Kobe to say someone like Horry was better defensively.

Bryant was all-defensive 1st team 9 times, all-defensive 2nd team 3 times, over a 13 year span.

In a 16 year NBA career Horry was never named to an all-defense team - not even once.

As a matter of fact, in his 16 year career Robert Horry has all of 5 votes for the all-defensive team.

So NBA head coaches clearly thought differently than you do. Surprise.

I suggest you go to YouTube and watch some Lakers games from the late 90s/2000s and educate yourself.

[Daddy 801]

Shaq had very good defense in his prime. But it’s a different league that it was. So who knows what he would look like now.

[Black Jack]

Shaq as a pure drop coverage rim protector is simply a much larger, more vertically explosive obstacle in the paint. Prime Shaq's defense was all about him being a giant obstacle. He was so big and he automatically won any strength-based physical battle in the paint.

I know Jokic looks goofy, but he's so much more mobile than people casually talk about him. He's pretty adept at rotating out the perimeter and contesting shots. He's so good at scram switching, the Nuggets built a whole defensive system around it. He makes very high-level reads. Obviously he's toast against elite speed, but against anyone else, he's pretty fine on the perimeter (the numbers back this up). Elite defensive hands.

Where Jokic sucks is vertical defense beyond his height. There's no hops in any situation, so once the game goes vertical, he simply has an exact limit of his height+his wingspan. Shaq and most other centers were able to make vertical plays. It's a big weakness that's sort of rare for a center.

Jokic needs an athletic big next to him. That's why Air Gordon unlocked their team to become a title winner.

[Rich Michmond]

Shaq has really weak portability defensively - his PNR coverage was a liability against Mike Bibby in 2002, I can't even fathom how big of a problem it would've been nowadays.

But he played in an era of low pace / very mid offensive level / mid talent on perimeter - and there, he was indeed net positive in 2002 in above average defensive team, and he was very net positive on the best playoff team defensively in 2001, and net positive on the best defense in the league in 2000.

Jokic would've been a better defender than right now in that era as well, but still not as good as Shaq, I guess.

I guess the main difference is that Jokic is much more consistent regular season performer. Better defense vs worse offense is just a matter of choice.

Sure but Bibby would have torched Jokic too. Agree with the rest.

It's not just Mike Bibby. Troy Hudson of all people looked like a star against Shaq (and Fisher) in the PnR in 2003.

[UcanUwill]

What are you even saying here op?

How about Shaq's offense vs Jokic's defense which do you prefer?

I'm saying does Shaq's defensive advantage make up Jokic's offensive advantage, if you think it exists.

Shaq at his best I think was the better player than Jokic, and I am not sure I even need to take defense into account. Shaq did less things offensively, but what he did was just not guardable, unsolvable, and he was far more aggressive than Jokic, what I mean, Jokic for all his talent is too passive of the offensive player.

[Lalouie]

i remember watching shaq's first game vs ewing who made empty boastings like he always did. that first game was a big deal

shag blocked 3 or 4 of ewing's baseline 12>15 footers. he had ewing scared and ewing started hitting the side of the backboard....... and that was it. it's like shaq proved his point and stopped

shaq had no will power. shaq would get the better of jokic in the first game and then shaq will quit, thinking he made his point

[The Servant]

I do have to imagine what the Lakers would have looked like with peak Jokic in place of Snaq. I imagine Kobe and Jokic get 4 total but thats because I imagine them having a career together. If they played the same amount of years as Kobe and Shaq I think they would get two instead of the threepeat maybe? Not sure.

Interesting question for sure, their games are so different and same with their eras.

[puny]

Jokic missed some crucial free-throws last post-season. It was frustrating to watch.

[maverick_41]

I do have to imagine what the Lakers would have looked like with peak Jokic in place of Snaq. I imagine Kobe and Jokic get 4 total but thats because I imagine them having a career together. If they played the same amount of years as Kobe and Shaq I think they would get two instead of the threepeat maybe? Not sure.

Interesting question for sure, their games are so different and same with their eras.

If only in the league were some big defensive bodies to hire )

[Ryoga Hibiki]

Shaq has really weak portability defensively - his PNR coverage was a liability against Mike Bibby in 2002, I can't even fathom how big of a problem it would've been nowadays.

But he played in an era of low pace / very mid offensive level / mid talent on perimeter - and there, he was indeed net positive in 2002 in above average defensive team, and he was very net positive on the best playoff team defensively in 2001, and net positive on the best defense in the league in 2000.

Jokic would've been a better defender than right now in that era as well, but still not as good as Shaq, I guess.

I guess the main difference is that Jokic is much more consistent regular season performer. Better defense vs worse offense is just a matter of choice.

Sure but Bibby would have torched Jokic too. Agree with the rest.

Jokic is 10x more active guarding the pick and roll, he would have edged in a way Shaw never did

[cupcakesnake]

Shaq as a pure drop coverage rim protector is simply a much larger, more vertically explosive obstacle in the paint. Prime Shaq's defense was all about him being a giant obstacle. He was so big and he automatically won any strength-based physical battle in the paint.

I know Jokic looks goofy, but he's so much more mobile than people casually talk about him. He's pretty adept at rotating out the perimeter and contesting shots. He's so good at scram switching, the Nuggets built a whole defensive system around it. He makes very high-level reads. Obviously he's toast against elite speed, but against anyone else, he's pretty fine on the perimeter (the numbers back this up). Elite defensive hands.

Where Jokic sucks is vertical defense beyond his height. There's no hops in any situation, so once the game goes vertical, he simply has an exact limit of his height+his wingspan. Shaq and most other centers were able to make vertical plays. It's a big weakness that's sort of rare for a center.

Jokic needs an athletic big next to him. That's why Air Gordon unlocked their team to become a title winner.

I love AG. He's one of my favorite players. He's been a perfect compliment to Jokic on both ends.
That being said, I don't think he's "an athletic big" when it comes to his defensive skill set and role. Despite his famous hops, his defensive skills are more about his ability to matchup with strength and mobility, and contest a ton of shots on the ball. He's perfect in this peel-switch defense, because it can keep Gordon on the other team's best player more easily, by having him switch off the ball whenever there's a bad matchup.

Gordon isn't a rim protector though. He doesn't block shots, he's at the rim an average amount, and his rim defense is below average (opponents shoot +0.9% better than average when Gordon is the defender at the rim). He's not a defensive playmaker either (he doesn't force turnovers or get get deflections). He's a horizontal matchup defender who can guard 4-5 positions really well. He's really good at contesting without fouling, and he's so versatile and disciplined.

Sometimes wonder what a Jokic team would look like if he shared the court with a rim protecting 4 (might we see it some this year with Daron Holmes and Peyton Watson?). Other times, I think it might be better with someone like Gordon, in that it allows a scheme that works best for Jokic. It's hard to know without seeing the former situation. The Nuggets have consistently played without a secondary rim protector in the Jokic era, and Jokic a bit of a donut as a primary rim protector. The frontcourt partners have all been more in that versatile man-to-man defense mold: Millsap, Nnaji, Jamychal and Jeff Green etc. Peyton Watson is the only guy to average over 1 block per game in the Jokic era.

[Godymas]

I have a hard time saying Jokic had a top 3 peak offensively.

1988 Jordan, 2009 LeBron James, 2016 Steph Curry, 1972 Kareem

Obviously you have these careers too, and I’ll take them
on offense over Jokic 100% of the time.

I mean just look at this list:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ows_season.html

Then look at this list:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_per_48_season.html

and I guess this one kinda supports Jokic’s offensive “peak”, but I’ve said that the greatest offensive peak of all time is 2015-2016 Steph. I don’t really like BPM because it can skewed by team and roster.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/obpm_season.html

[C0bR]

Cant imagine Shaq getting absolutely cooked by Finnish guys you have never heard of like Jokic did at Eurobasket.

Never has the office of the "best player in the world" been so demeaned as when the offense of 20th best NT in the world became "swing it to whoever is being guarded by Jokic, even if it's the janitor".

[BruttoNostra]

Let’s see how he plays without MPJ before we start crowning him.

First time I've heard of MPJ as a control for Jokic. Not sure how that works.

Yea, it's like saying let's see how Shaq plays without Rick Fox or the GUOAT himself (U for Ukrainian) Slava Medvedenko.
Anyone can shoot 3s with Jokic's passing and gravitation. If anything, it's MPJ that will see his stock fall as one-dimensional low-IQ chucker.

[God Squad]

Shaq would struggle immensely in this perimeter-oriented era. IMO, he'd slow the game down to a halt, he'd be a sieve in pick-&-roll defense, and he's not running out to the 3-point line to contest anybody.

This is probably blasphemous, but the NBA game has moved far away from what Shaq was used to.