Count legit MVP contending seasons for these players

[70sFan]

Shaq thread made me think that even the greatest players ever have very few serious RS performances with legit MVP case. I did the quick work for my top 11 and there is a very clear decline after top 4:


LeBron James: 7 (2006, 2009-10, 2012-14, 2017)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 10 (1970-74, 1976-77, 1979-81)
Bill Russell: 9 (1958-65, 1969)
Michael Jordan: 9 (1988-93, 1996-98)

Tim Duncan: 4-5 (1999, 2001-03, maybe 2005)
Hakeem Olajuwon: 2 (1993, 1994)
Wilt Chamberlain: 6 (1960, 1962, 1964, 1966-68)
Shaquille O'Neal: 3 (1999-01)
Kevin Garnett: 2 (2003-04)
Magic Johnson: 4 (1987-90)
Stephen Curry: 4 (2015-17, 2021)

It's quite rare to have players with more than 4 seasons worth of RS MVP.

[jalengreen]

The gap between the top guys in this regard and everybody else really isn't well appreciated enough by casual fans, I think. Every time a new all-time great emerges, you hear murmurs about how they might be able to challenge the GOATs based on their performance in a span of a few seasons. Saw it with Curry, Giannis, Jokic (though he's probably at 5 in this metric, interesting to see what he ends up as), but it's just a non-starter for me when they don't have the decade long sustained dominance. Maybe somebody's peak will be so insane that they can be the GOAT with only ~5 MVP contending seasons, but it's kinda hard to imagine.

Anywho, only thing that stuck out to me from your counts was that I probably wouldn't have 2021 Curry in there. Though I may be overrating 2021 Jokic based on his recent seasons, idk

[70sFan]

The gap between the top guys in this regard and everybody else really isn't well appreciated enough by casual fans, I think. Every time a new all-time great emerges, you hear murmurs about how they might be able to challenge the GOATs based on their performance in a span of a few seasons. Saw it with Curry, Giannis, Jokic (though he's probably at 5 in this metric, interesting to see what he ends up as), but it's just a non-starter for me when they don't have the decade long sustained dominance. Maybe somebody's peak will be so insane that they can be the GOAT with only ~5 MVP contending seasons, but it's kinda hard to imagine.

Anywho, only thing that stuck out to me from your counts was that I probably wouldn't have 2021 Curry in there. Though I may be overrating 2021 Jokic based on his recent seasons, idk

2021 Curry is on the edge and it's perfectly fine to leave this year off the list.

I'd have 2021-25 for Jokic as well, he wasn't undeserving choice in 2021.

[eminence]

Rudy Gobert has the best '21 MVP case and I'll go to my grave supporting him.

Mikan probably joins tier one with 7-8 seasons (depending on how you feel about his rookie season).

On some guys included:
-I'd give LeBron a few more arguments I think ('11 for instance, he wouldn't necessarily be my pick, but he's in the conversation)
-I don't think '69 Russells arguments are particularly strong, but maybe depending on where you set the bar
-KG '08 is a perfectly reasonable pick (who are you including if neither Bron or KG are there?)
-Magic I think one could be high enough on his mid 80s seasons to have quite a few more, '91 as well

[70sFan]

Rudy Gobert has the best '21 MVP case and I'll go to my grave supporting him.

Mikan probably joins tier one with 7-8 seasons (depending on how you feel about his rookie season).

On some guys included:
-I'd give LeBron a few more arguments I think ('11 for instance, he wouldn't necessarily be my pick, but he's in the conversation)
-I don't think '69 Russells arguments are particularly strong, but maybe depending on where you set the bar
-KG '08 is a perfectly reasonable pick (who are you including if neither Bron or KG are there?)
-Magic I think one could be high enough on his mid 80s seasons to have quite a few more, '91 as well

I forgot about 2008 KG to be honest, it's definitely there. Don't know about any other Magic season, 1986 is just too good from Bird. 1991 can't compete with Jordan either to me at least.

[penbeast0]

If we are assuming regular season only, not playoffs, not sure Russell in 69 qualifies either but think there are good arguments for 66-68 which may all have been stronger than 69. 67 Russell had a reasonable MVP type season, just Wilt's season blew him away in all of team success, counting stats, and narrative so you may feel Wilt is the ONLY choice and I'm fine with that.

[Mr Ringer]

I think LeBron is underrated in your count.
2011 and 18' must be there for me
Shaq was considered robbed in 05' by some people as well
If I recall Bron was a top candidate in 20' as well but I wasn't that impressed as well

What's the criteria for a season?
Is it compared to others? (selected as top 3 etc.)
Is it Compared to the season itself? (so you can consider 3 players for a season with a top race and barely 1 for other based on performance)

[RCM88x]

I would add 11, 18, and 20 for Lebron, he finished 3rd, 2nd and 2nd in those years. And then remove 2017 (4th), which would give him 9 total.

Curry probably loses '17 for me, he finished 6th and preseason odds listed KD higher IIRC. Leaving him with 3 total.

Kevin Durant: 4 (2010, 2012-2014)
James Harden: 5 (2015, 2017-2020)
Kobe Bryant: 5 (2003, 2007-2010)
Chris Paul: 1 (2008)

[The Explorer]

Code: Select all

Player   # of Top 5 Finishes
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar   15
LeBron James              15
Bill Russell              11
Kobe Bryant            11
Michael Jordan            10
Wilt Chamberlain     10
Larry Bird                9
Magic Johnson        9
Tim Duncan           9
Oscar Robertson   9
Karl Malone       9
Julius Erving        9

If the criteria is top 5 finishes, then this would the list.

[RCM88x]

Code: Select all

Player   # of Top 5 Finishes
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar   15
LeBron James              15
Bill Russell              11
Kobe Bryant            11
Michael Jordan            10
Wilt Chamberlain     10
Larry Bird                9
Magic Johnson        9
Tim Duncan           9
Oscar Robertson   9
Karl Malone       9
Julius Erving        9

If the criteria is top 5 finishes, then this would the list.

I would say 5th is too light. I was sorta looking for MVP shares > .400 which is usually around 3rd

[DraymondGold]

When we say "legit MVP case", are we saying as the voters actually voted, or based on what we personally consider legit MVP case? Because those answers may differ remarkably, when we consider seasons with voter fatigue or strong narrative factors.

[70sFan]

When we say "legit MVP case", are we saying as the voters actually voted, or based on what we personally consider legit MVP case? Because those answers may differ remarkably, when we consider seasons with voter fatigue or strong narrative factors.

The latter.

[DonaldSanders]

I would say 5th is too light. I was sorta looking for MVP shares > .400 which is usually around 3rd

Agreed. Look up the last 5 seasons, here are the 4th and 5th guys:

2024-2025:
4th: Tatum
5th: Mitchell
Combined 1st place votes: 0

2023-2024:
4th: Giannis
5th: Brunson
Combined 1st place votes: 1

2022-2023:
4th: Tatum
5th: SGA
Combined 1st place votes: 0

2021-2022:
4th: Booker
5th: Doncic
Combined 1st place votes: 0

2020-2021:
4th: Giannis
5th: CP3
Combined 1st place votes: 3

So yeah, 4 1st place votes total for the 4th/5th guys in 5 years is hardly a case for these guys to have been considered legit MVP contenders. No that voters always get it right, but I think you probably need to be minimum top 3 to be considered a contender, though usually it is a 2 horse race.

[RCM88x]

I think it's easier to go back by years in that case @70sFan. Obviously this timeframe is very Lebron friendly.

Lebron - 11
Jokic - 5
Harden - 5
Duncan - 4
Shaq, Nash, Dirk, KG - 3
Kobe, AD, Curry - 2

Code: Select all

2025 - Shai, Jokic
2024 - Jokic
2023 - Jokic
2022 - Jokic
2021 - Jokic
2020 - Giannis, Lebron, Harden
2019 - Giannis, Harden
2018 - Harden, Lebron, AD
2017 - Westbrook, Harden, Lebron, Kawhi
2016 - Curry
2015 - Curry, Harden, AD, Paul
2014 - KD, Lebron
2013 - Lebron
2012 - Lebron
2011 - Dwight, Lebron, Rose
2010 - Lebron
2009 - Lebron
2008 - Paul, Lebron, KG, Kobe
2007 - Dirk, Duncan, Nash
2006 - Dirk, Lebron, Nash, Kobe
2005 - Nash, Dirk
2004 - KG
2003 - Duncan, KG, Tmac
2002 - Duncan, Shaq
2001 - Shaq, Duncan
2000 - Shaq

[penbeast0]

Code: Select all

Player   # of Top 5 Finishes
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar   15
LeBron James              15
Bill Russell              11
Kobe Bryant            11
Michael Jordan            10
Wilt Chamberlain     10
Larry Bird                9
Magic Johnson        9
Tim Duncan           9
Oscar Robertson   9
Karl Malone       9
Julius Erving        9

If the criteria is top 5 finishes, then this would the list.

I would say 5th is too light. I was sorta looking for MVP shares > .400 which is usually around 3rd

You also might want to have more candidates as the league grows. 15 teams or less, only 2 candidates, more than 15 then 3, if we grow to more than 30, add a 4th? Something like that (clearly just brainstorming and not using any relevant criteria).

[f4p]

.

Anywho, only thing that stuck out to me from your counts was that I probably wouldn't have 2021 Curry in there. Though I may be overrating 2021 Jokic based on his recent seasons, idk

Yeah that's already the only person to ever finish top 3 in MVP voting without making the playoffs. Feels like a stretch to say it was really up there with the jokic, who practically was unanimous.

[f4p]

Hardens like 12th or 13th all time in MVP shares so I guess it shouldn't be surprising, but it's amazing how high he is up this list. Combo of great player, being heliocentric so really carrying a team and also almost never missing games so he didn't lose out on candidacies. Although he's probably a candidate in 2021 if he doesn't get hurt.

[Djoker]

.

Anywho, only thing that stuck out to me from your counts was that I probably wouldn't have 2021 Curry in there. Though I may be overrating 2021 Jokic based on his recent seasons, idk

Yeah that's already the only person to ever finish top 3 in MVP voting without making the playoffs. Feels like a stretch to say it was really up there with the jokic, who practically was unanimous.

Kareem won MVP in 1976 without making the playoffs. But definitely it's rare to finish top 3 without making the playoffs...

[trelos6]

Being RS MVP only makes it trickier, as my tables are for complete seasons.

LeBron James: 11
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 10
Bill Russell: 9
Michael Jordan: 9

Tim Duncan: 6
Hakeem Olajuwon: 9
Wilt Chamberlain: 8
Shaquille O'Neal: 7
Kevin Garnett: 8
Magic Johnson: 8
Stephen Curry: 8

Lebron 11-12 are up there to me, and I have a few more Duncan RS. Hakeem was largely a RS guy in the late 80's, similarly KG for the mid 00's.

Some other big RS guys:

Robinson
Jokic
Harden

[RCM88x]

Being RS MVP only makes it trickier, as my tables are for complete seasons.

LeBron James: 11
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 10
Bill Russell: 9
Michael Jordan: 9

Tim Duncan: 6
Hakeem Olajuwon: 9
Wilt Chamberlain: 8
Shaquille O'Neal: 7
Kevin Garnett: 8
Magic Johnson: 8
Stephen Curry: 8

Lebron 11-12 are up there to me, and I have a few more Duncan RS. Hakeem was largely a RS guy in the late 80's, similarly KG for the mid 00's.

Some other big RS guys:

Robinson
Jokic
Harden

I'm curious how you get to 8 for Curry and KG, I only had 2 and 3 seasons respectively.