ConSarnit wrote:JB7 wrote:ConSarnit wrote:
If we lose any of Barnes/Ingram/Poeltl we have zero chance at probably even 45 wins. The guy who 50 wins hinges on the most (Ingram) is the most injury prone player out of any of the above.
If the thought process is “one key injury from collapsing” we have the guy most likely to get injured.
If one of those 3 (Barnes/Ingram/Poeltl) get injured, the team doesn't fall completely apart. But in the case of the 5 teams I mentioned above, if one of those players got injured, those teams are done. And Celtics and Pacers might even be incentivized to tank this season, owning their picks, and with the injuries to Tatum and Hali.
The only 3 teams guaranteed to be strong this year, and able to manage through some injuries are the Cavs, Knicks and Magic.
If Poeltl gets injured we are in big trouble. Mamu is unproven even as a backup C.
I doubt the Pacers (who never tank) or BOS tank. Those teams are going to default into play-in position because of the log jam in the East. Maybe BOS pivots to a tank. I also think if they do tank it won’t be some massive boon for us that pushes us to 50 wins. We play BOS once after the trade deadline. If BOS or IND pivots to a late season tank we’re not going to get to play them when they really ramp it up.
I would agree that Yak is probably a bit more valuable than BI or Barnes, if there were an injury to one player. But I don't think an injury to any one of those guys has the same type of impact as a injury to one of those 5 players I mentioned above, and their teams.
I definitely think the Celtics are going to choose to tank at some point this season. It is just the perfect situation for them to produce a quick reset for their team around Tatum and Brown. A top pick in a strong draft can be used to draft young, cheap talent, which they need with the contracts Tatum and Brown have. The draft pick could also be used to acquire young cheap talent as well via trade.
I also wouldn't be surprised if Indy tries the same thing as well. They know they have no chance in the playoffs without Hali, and they have already lost Turner, and will probably lose Mathurin after this season (will be hard to resign). So why not look to a good draft to replenish some of that talent, when they clearly are not winning this season.
If both of those teams choose to tank, that is just two less teams for the Raps to compete with for seeding in the East.
And who knows if Giannis demands a trade at some point in the season. Bucks could be another team that falls off dramatically. The Bucks record last year was not just about Giannis. They also had Dame for 58 games, averaging almost 25pts per game, which they don't have at all this season.
There are just a lot of teams in the East that could fall off this season, opening up lanes for the Raps success.