The Master wrote:DraymondGold wrote:But just to clarify, when I say Magic's skills are more synergistic, I mean both that they're more synergistic with teammates and more synergistic with each other.
-For the former, yes that does depend on the exact teammates, but it's also possible to do a skillset based analysis. There are trends in how different skills mesh with different types of teammates. This kind of skillset / chemistry analysis is really noisy, and people can disagree pretty heavily on this sort of stuff, so it's far from perfect, but it is part of the picture. It's absolutely true that Magic had substantially more offensive talent than 1st Cavs LeBron. I'm not too interested in getting into a scalability/LeBron discussion here (it's been overdone in the past), but suffice it to say, I think someone like Magic who monopolizes playmaking (with the greatest playmaking ever and some of the greatest offensive IQ ever) but shares scoring load (with better era relative spacing) fits a little better next to high-quality scorers and finishers (like Kareem, Worthy, Wade, Kyrie, Love, AD) than a guy like (younger?) Lebron who wants to monopolize both the playmaking (with all-time playmaking and offensive IQ, but not quite as good as Magic's) and monopolize more of the scoring too (with less spacing). So I like the synergy of Magic's skills with his teammates, based on the teammates yes, but also based on the skills and play styles themselves.
Now this comparison might be less fair when we get to older LeBron. As I insinuated in my first post, I'm open to discussions that as he got older the gap shrunk or even flipped in favor of LeBron. Late Miami LeBron and 2nd Cavs LeBron had improved passing, IQ, command of pace, and yes spacing/shooting/scoring counters, which I think helped these scalability issues. But unlike Magic, these evolutions came at a time when LeBron was older and the he had to (chose to?) coast in the regular season.
First of all, thank you for your feedback.
Cheers!
Re: Magic
1. Is it really the case that playmaking monopolization + 1A/1B scoring volume guarantees better synergy? Or maybe - Magic played in an era where he could monopolize the offense in the best way fitting his skillset (dominant playmaker, non-dominant scorer) in fast paced offense, but that wouldn't be necessarily the case in the early 2010s era where talent pool was pretty much centered on perimeter and he would've been in position to actually share playmaking duties in several scenarios. Not saying that he wouldn't fit in, but let's say it was less probable to find Kyries and Wades in 1987. And again, I'm not disputing the overall premise (Magic potentially on par with LeBron offensively), but some arguments here mentioned I find as very much context-dependent (mainly, 'Magic generated better offenses' and 'he had better synergy as an anchor offensively'), and it's hard to compare two players from completely different eras without unpacking this context.
Yeah, there definitely could be changes in era rules and styles at play. The offensive and defensive styles differ pretty drastically across the two eras. People differ with how they treat the time machine thought experiment, but if you do consider it and not just an era-relative approach, that could definitely change things. I do still like Magic’s chemistry with Worthy, which does give some sense for how Magic would fit with a scoring perimeter/Wing, though obviously Worthy’s a different player from Wade or Kyrie. Philosophically, I tend to lean against your-turn my-turn styles of offense in favor of offenses where both players help each other, and it did feels like the offenses with LeBron/Wade/Kyrie turned to that a little more than Magic/Worthy (although there were plenty of wrinkles and ways LeBron/Wade/Kyrie also helped each other). As you said, specific contexts and eras may play a role here. For example, illegal defense rules or worse league average spacing may have helped alleviate spacing issues for pairing Magic with a scoring-centric wing in an era-relative sense, in ways LeBron didn’t benefit from when paired with Wade. I usually focus on era relative, though others may differ.
Re: LeBron
2. Did he really monopolize the ball that much, or just modern basketball demands from 'mutual synergy' perspective both great on- and off-ball skills, both in terms of playmaking and shooting, and this is something Wade (shooting) and Bosh (playmaking) really couldn't provide. The result was that even the very bright mind of Spoelstra couldn't come out with anything better than the Heatless era and their offense. Lakers 2020 had really flawed spacing - and yet they had +5 offense in the playoffs that year with below average shooting, and Cavs 16-17 had +9 offenses in the playoffs as well. Why? The difference is both AD and Kyrie were both great as off-ball scorers for their respective positions. Even with Mo Williams and Delonte West - they shared playmaking/ballhandling duties and there was, with limited talent of both, synergy just based on their shooting capabilities. So did really LeBron monopolize the offense that much considering that he was certainly capable of being +10 APG type of player, and yet the first time he reached that mark was for the Lakers who played typical ballhandler-big man type of offense in the twilight of his prime years? I doubt it.
Also, obviously LeBron in the latter part of his career was indeed a smarter and more versatile player, but I don't think this is really an explanation of why (offensively) the results of Heat and 1st LeBron tenure's Cavs offenses were sub-optimal (or not elite besides 12/13 season, let's say).
A lot I agree with here. Modern offenses definitely put demands on a player's on and off-ball versatility, and the Heat were at the point where they were ahead of their time to some extent by 2012 (e.g. going small ball with Bosh at the 5 and LeBron at the 4), but still struggling with slightly outdated fit and a lack of shooting depth early on. By the time we get to Kyrie and AD, I agree we get better offensive results in part because of the costar’s better off-ball activity (AD in particular), shooting/spacing (Kyrie in particular, and playoff AD era-relative), and improvements from LeBron in both areas
Re: did LeBron really monopolize the offenses,
I think he did, yes. I don’t think assists per game are quite the right measure. Do they suggest LeBron wasn’t selfish offensively? Sure, and I definitely wouldn’t say he was. But in terms of how much the offense ran through LeBron and relied on him to carry the scoring and playmaking, I would say it was historically high. We expect stars to have massive loads. But LeBron had 6 seasons in the 100th percentile in offensive load, and 16 seasons in the 99+ percentile. Magic had three in the 99th percentile. 1988 is in the 95th percentile, and 1985-86 are even lower.
Some of this is from era differences. The hyper-heliocentric style where we concentrate such a high scoring and playmaking load in one player only developed in recent times, driven by rule and style changes. The easier handling rules allows for (and encourages) a higher dribbling load of your best ball handler. The spacing is a necessity for a drive and kick style, and conversely the drive and kick style requires modern spacing. It’s possible Magic in a later era would play more heliocentric. And as you’ve said, these heliocentric offenses at their best (which I would argue was under LeBron) were quite effective in recent years. So don’t get me wrong - this is primarily nitpicking among the very best guys ever playing on some of the best offenses ever. But if we’re nitpicking, yeah, I do think LeBron monopolized the offense more than Magic, and that led to times of great fit (eg AD) but also times of slightly worse offensive fit (eg Wade).
Re: offensive fit with Wade (defense aside — the defenses were great) and improved team offenses as LeBron got older...
I agree that some of the fit issues offensively came from a lack of off-ball activity, and lack of shooting from LeBron's teammates, particularly early on. One might put some of the blame on Wade (and I do to some extent). But I think the nitpicking could go both ways. LeBron struggled in these synergistic areas -- e.g. shooting and off-ball activity -- early on. He got better in these areas to try to improve his synergy, as has been well documented, and as he’s discussed himself. So from a skillset point perspective, these issues become less of an issue by the time we get to 2013. But by the time we get to the historic offenses in the 2nd Cavs stint and full improvements in these synergistic skills, we get to the coasting era. So I think Magic developed his synergistic skills when he was a bit younger than LBJ. Maybe 2013 LeBron with the 2nd Cavs roster could have maintained the historic team offenses throughout the regular season? Hard to project with confidence, but could be.
I definitely agree the 2016-2017 playoff offenses were historic, and the 2020 Lakers' playoff offenses were impressively good despite sub-optimal shooting at a few positions (although I think form a spacing perspective, having such a great shooter in AD at the big position helped make up for a lot). But again, one concern with the 2nd Cavs offenses is that they are only historic in the playoffs. Of course we could attribute all the playoff rise to LeBron not coasting, and if so that of course makes him look better. But if some of that is attributed to shooting luck (and there have been studies suggesting those playoff teams did benefit from shooting luck), that takes off a little shine from the ceiling raising team performance of LeBron.... again this is nitpicking only in comparison to another offensive GOAT candidate like Magic. As above, it's possible a younger LeBron ~2013 had the ability to maintain such historic offenses over more of the season, and if you think so, the argument for LBJ sensibly gets stronger.
3. Re: coasting in the regular season - yeah, obviously it was related to him conserving energy for the playoffs, what was more than understandable considering his career volume in the playoffs already at that time. But my point rather was:
a) 2015-18 regular seasons were still MVP candidate worthy, and LeBron was 30-33 at that time, so I don't think this is an argument in favor of Magic of all people for well known reasons that he did it,
b) coasting LeBron in optimal offensive conditions was able to generate +4/+5 rORTG offenses in the regular season (and +9 rORTG offenses in the playoffs with his 'regular' self) - so I don't think that it is fair reaching assumption that peak LeBron would've been capable of generating much better offenses than he did in this 08-14 era, considering that he was at +8.7 OBPM if you exclude 2011 season, if he was at that time playing under 'optimal' offensive circumstances.
The point that I can agree with - but again, I think this is pretty much related to the growth of the game on both sides of the floor rather than Magic being 'inherently' better synergy-wise - is that LeBron in 2010s was probably more demanding in terms of specific fit than Magic was in the 80s. But isn't related to the fact that talent pool, defenses and the way offense is played - are all much better, and Magic would've also demanded a specific roster construction, especially if he had spent majority of his prime in lower pace era like LeBron did, in the 00s or 10s? I believe so.
But again - these are my 2 cents to this discussion without disputing the overall assumption that this comparison is indeed really close. I'd probably prefer prime LeBron, as he was really an underrated off-ball scorer in this 12-18 era, but like I said several times, I'm not disputing the basic assumption of them being on the same tier offensively.
I think I addressed my perspective on some of points a-b and the time-machine discussion above. But just to reiterate...
2015-18 were definitely MVP worth, and LeBron was quite impressive, despite some coasting! And indeed the offenses were pretty solid, despite the coasting. To my eye, the coasting was more on the defensive end than the offensive end (although it got to be on both ends by 2018). And the historic playoff performances again depend on how 'real' you consider them relative to matchup-specific benefits or shooting luck. If they're real, of course LBJ looks better. If they're slightly luck boosted in the playoffs, or rely on a combination of his coasting in the regular season to have the motor and some of the skill developments that he genuinely did improve on since peak Miami, then that takes some shine off. If one thinks the Cavs playoff offenses were more real and less-luck boosted, or that LeBron had developed the synergistic skills by mid-Miami when he still had regular season effort, that of course raises him back up.
No strong disagreements on my end from the points you raised. Moreso just stating my uncertainty and the way I slightly lean. I think your take is totally reasonable though!
