Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #9-#10 Spots

[70sFan]

There was a discussion on Reddit where I was comparing xRAPM numbers for Kobe and Chris Paul by age during their primes. Thought the results were pretty interesting so I wanted to post them here:

https://xrapm.com/table_pages/xRAPM.html

• ⁠Age 21: CP3 3.7, Kobe 1.4
• ⁠Age 22: CP3 5.5, Kobe 3.5
• ⁠Age 23: CP3 7.7, Kobe 3.9
• ⁠Age 24: CP3 7.1, Kobe 4.9
• ⁠Age 25: CP3 6.7, Kobe 4.0
• ⁠Age 26: CP3 6.8, Kobe 3.2
• ⁠Age 27: CP3 7.0, Kobe 5.4
• ⁠Age 28: CP3 7.9, Kobe 4.8
• ⁠Age 29: CP3 8.1, Kobe 6.4
• ⁠Age 30: CP3 8.0, Kobe 5.5
• ⁠Age 31: CP3 7.6, Kobe 5.0
• ⁠Age 32: CP3 7.5, Kobe 3.2
• ⁠Age 33: CP3 5.2, Kobe 2.2
• ⁠Age 34: CP3 4.5, Kobe 1.9

I find it interesting that not only does CP3 clear Kobe at every prime age, he does so relatively easily. The closest is age 29, Kobe’s 2008 season and Chris Paul’s 2015 season where Chris Paul still leads Kobe by 1.8. Kobe’s 3rd in the league in RAPM in 2008 while CP3 leads the league in 2015. CP3 also has 10 seasons in a row with better numbers than Kobe’s peak from age 23-32.

Even if you naturally want to focus on an individual season or two for this project, I think the context of how Chris Paul clears Kobe so easily at every prime age shows a lot of important context that the numbers aren’t just fluky in an individual year.

I think you should do the same comparison between Dirk and Paul, because CP3 clears Dirk just as easily as Kobe in that stat and yet you have Dirk higher on your list.

[70sFan]

I saw someone claim that Harden’s numbers weren’t better than Kobe. That’s plainly false. Let’s take 2009 Kobe, which is the year people are advancing as his peak, and compare it to Harden’s MVP year.

Harden RS: 42/12/8 per 100, on 619 TS%
Kobe RS: 38/7/7 per 100, on 561 TS%

Harden’s advantage is huge. How about the postseason then.

Harden PS: 41/8/8 per 100, on 548 TS%
Kobe PS: 39/7/7/ per 100, on 564 TS%

So while Harden does drop off in the playoffs some years, he merely drops back to a level that is more in line with Kobe’s level. Meanwhile, in the RS he is producing at a level significantly higher. Since the RS matters too, I am not sure what exactly Kobe’s argument over Harden would be. Note that I was charitable and chose Harden’s MVP year. I could have picked a year like 2020, where Harden had RS numbers of 44/10/8 per 100, on 626 TS%, with PS numbers of 39/10/7 on 636 TS%, numbers that absolutely kill Kobe.

When I look at the skillset Harden brings, it’s just better. He is bad on D, but as the lead guard who runs the offense you can get away with him being a bad defender reasonably well. Harden gives you absolutely elite offense, up to the Curry level in the RS, but dropping a bit some playoffs. His combination of moves, vision, and shot making, is just vastly superior to what Kobe can bring on offense. Moreover, Kobe’s game is kind of a dying position in the NBA. Teams almost invariably expect their lead guard to run an offense now, something Kobe simply can’t do. He struggled enough just fitting into the triangle, he isn’t able to run an offense. The few players who are somewhat in that mold now, like Ant, are killer 3pt shooters and off-ball players, in a way Kobe just was not.

I look at some of Harden’s teams, and the support cast is often not that great, and yet the team is contending. It’s easy to see his impact. If you want to see one example of that, look at teams like the 2015 and 2017 Rockets. His starters in 2017 were Capela, Ryan Anderson, Ariza, and Patrick Beverley. That isn’t exactly a good support cast for a 55 win team. In 2015 his support cast was a declining Dwight (who missed half the season), Beverley (only played 56 games), Ariza, and Motiejunas. Their back-up 5 to replace Dwight was Terrence Jones. That is again a pretty weak support cast, yet they won 56 games.

That said, I’m not sure I can justify peak Harden over peak Butler… and I am still not ready to vote for Butler. It just seems ludicrous to me to vote for Kobe at this point tbh.

I know you decide not to care about relative TS% for Kobe based on some sort of logic that Kobe would somehow have the same raw TS% in another era, but I think it goes without saying that 56.4% TS% in 2009 is way better than 54.8% TS% in 2018. Like, leaving aside your whole purely hypothetical and speculative “how would they play today” stuff, just in era-relative terms Kobe’s playoff scoring efficiency there is clearly way more valuable.

Anyways, I know you’re basically just trolling with the comparisons between Kobe Bryant and Jimmy Butler, but I will actually note that I actually think Butler will eventually make my ballot. Not for a while, but I do think he’s in my top 25 peaks in this timeframe.

For me, the worse thing is how he just looks at the per100 stats + TS% to conclude who is a better offensive player. We're in 2025 and some people still think that how you generate your points and play 95% of the time as a non-finisher doesn't matter.

[One_and_Done]

Context matters. A flat TS% adjustment is not context. I feel the context favours the players I've mentioned, as I've discussed.

[iggymcfrack]

There was a discussion on Reddit where I was comparing xRAPM numbers for Kobe and Chris Paul by age during their primes. Thought the results were pretty interesting so I wanted to post them here:

https://xrapm.com/table_pages/xRAPM.html

• ⁠Age 21: CP3 3.7, Kobe 1.4
• ⁠Age 22: CP3 5.5, Kobe 3.5
• ⁠Age 23: CP3 7.7, Kobe 3.9
• ⁠Age 24: CP3 7.1, Kobe 4.9
• ⁠Age 25: CP3 6.7, Kobe 4.0
• ⁠Age 26: CP3 6.8, Kobe 3.2
• ⁠Age 27: CP3 7.0, Kobe 5.4
• ⁠Age 28: CP3 7.9, Kobe 4.8
• ⁠Age 29: CP3 8.1, Kobe 6.4
• ⁠Age 30: CP3 8.0, Kobe 5.5
• ⁠Age 31: CP3 7.6, Kobe 5.0
• ⁠Age 32: CP3 7.5, Kobe 3.2
• ⁠Age 33: CP3 5.2, Kobe 2.2
• ⁠Age 34: CP3 4.5, Kobe 1.9

I find it interesting that not only does CP3 clear Kobe at every prime age, he does so relatively easily. The closest is age 29, Kobe’s 2008 season and Chris Paul’s 2015 season where Chris Paul still leads Kobe by 1.8. Kobe’s 3rd in the league in RAPM in 2008 while CP3 leads the league in 2015. CP3 also has 10 seasons in a row with better numbers than Kobe’s peak from age 23-32.

Even if you naturally want to focus on an individual season or two for this project, I think the context of how Chris Paul clears Kobe so easily at every prime age shows a lot of important context that the numbers aren’t just fluky in an individual year.

I think you should do the same comparison between Dirk and Paul, because CP3 clears Dirk just as easily as Kobe in that stat and yet you have Dirk higher on your list.

It's not quite as dramatic. Dirk peaks at +6.8 and the streak's only 10 years instead of 14. Very fair point though that it's largely the same.

After looking at the xRAPM comparison, I went to check some other stuff though to see if the numbers were similar and they weren't. For instance, look at this PI RAPM that always used to be my favorite from the period of Dirk's peak:

https://web.archive.org/web/20201024055600/https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/rapm-by-player-g-n

Dirk peaks at 8.6 in the 2011 season. Over the period from 2006-2013 where there's single year data, Chris Paul peaks at 5.8 in 2009/2011. Over Kobe's years of data from 2001-2013, he peaks at +6.1 in 2008 and 2009.

So, maybe the case for CP3 over Dirk is a little stronger than I thought and I'll revisit in the next thread, but I feel comfortable with my rankings for now. Likewise, maybe the case for CP3 over Kobe was slightly overstated although I'd still expect CP3 to be ahead of Kobe if we had his peak impact years of 2014-2016.

[babyjax13]

Sorry I have not been active the last couple of threads. Things are busy! I will resume participating next week : D

[Special_Puppy]

There was a discussion on Reddit where I was comparing xRAPM numbers for Kobe and Chris Paul by age during their primes. Thought the results were pretty interesting so I wanted to post them here:

https://xrapm.com/table_pages/xRAPM.html

• ⁠Age 21: CP3 3.7, Kobe 1.4
• ⁠Age 22: CP3 5.5, Kobe 3.5
• ⁠Age 23: CP3 7.7, Kobe 3.9
• ⁠Age 24: CP3 7.1, Kobe 4.9
• ⁠Age 25: CP3 6.7, Kobe 4.0
• ⁠Age 26: CP3 6.8, Kobe 3.2
• ⁠Age 27: CP3 7.0, Kobe 5.4
• ⁠Age 28: CP3 7.9, Kobe 4.8
• ⁠Age 29: CP3 8.1, Kobe 6.4
• ⁠Age 30: CP3 8.0, Kobe 5.5
• ⁠Age 31: CP3 7.6, Kobe 5.0
• ⁠Age 32: CP3 7.5, Kobe 3.2
• ⁠Age 33: CP3 5.2, Kobe 2.2
• ⁠Age 34: CP3 4.5, Kobe 1.9

I find it interesting that not only does CP3 clear Kobe at every prime age, he does so relatively easily. The closest is age 29, Kobe’s 2008 season and Chris Paul’s 2015 season where Chris Paul still leads Kobe by 1.8. Kobe’s 3rd in the league in RAPM in 2008 while CP3 leads the league in 2015. CP3 also has 10 seasons in a row with better numbers than Kobe’s peak from age 23-32.

Even if you naturally want to focus on an individual season or two for this project, I think the context of how Chris Paul clears Kobe so easily at every prime age shows a lot of important context that the numbers aren’t just fluky in an individual year.

The statistical argument for CP3>Kobe in terms of Peak+Prime+Career is surprisingly strong. DPM and EPM strongly favors Paul. Paul's career RAPM is also higher. RAPTOR also favors CP3 in terms of Peak+Prime+Career Value. As does BPM. Argument for Kobe over Chris Paul for this project probably focuses on Paul's questionable durability and modest team success


https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_29y.html

[f4p]

I just don't see any way Shai is above peak kawhi, unless it's strictly an injury thing. Kawhi's biggest weakness in creation isn't something shai is elite at either. And then whereas Shai gives you high volume, below average efficiency scoring in the playoffs, kawhi gives you high volume, ultra high efficiency scoring in the playoffs. Like either 2017 or 2021 kawhi is the 9th highest TS% for someone scoring 25 ppg in the playoffs (I think that was the cutoff), and one of the other 8 from all of NBA history is also Kawhi. And kawhi is the better defender, if say you need to shut down the league MVP. And even in a non peak year like 2019, kawhi has a playoffs that blows shai out of the water.

I just can't see Shai above that because the thunder were exceptional at winning games by 40.

[iggymcfrack]

There was a discussion on Reddit where I was comparing xRAPM numbers for Kobe and Chris Paul by age during their primes. Thought the results were pretty interesting so I wanted to post them here:

https://xrapm.com/table_pages/xRAPM.html

• ⁠Age 21: CP3 3.7, Kobe 1.4
• ⁠Age 22: CP3 5.5, Kobe 3.5
• ⁠Age 23: CP3 7.7, Kobe 3.9
• ⁠Age 24: CP3 7.1, Kobe 4.9
• ⁠Age 25: CP3 6.7, Kobe 4.0
• ⁠Age 26: CP3 6.8, Kobe 3.2
• ⁠Age 27: CP3 7.0, Kobe 5.4
• ⁠Age 28: CP3 7.9, Kobe 4.8
• ⁠Age 29: CP3 8.1, Kobe 6.4
• ⁠Age 30: CP3 8.0, Kobe 5.5
• ⁠Age 31: CP3 7.6, Kobe 5.0
• ⁠Age 32: CP3 7.5, Kobe 3.2
• ⁠Age 33: CP3 5.2, Kobe 2.2
• ⁠Age 34: CP3 4.5, Kobe 1.9

I find it interesting that not only does CP3 clear Kobe at every prime age, he does so relatively easily. The closest is age 29, Kobe’s 2008 season and Chris Paul’s 2015 season where Chris Paul still leads Kobe by 1.8. Kobe’s 3rd in the league in RAPM in 2008 while CP3 leads the league in 2015. CP3 also has 10 seasons in a row with better numbers than Kobe’s peak from age 23-32.

Even if you naturally want to focus on an individual season or two for this project, I think the context of how Chris Paul clears Kobe so easily at every prime age shows a lot of important context that the numbers aren’t just fluky in an individual year.

The statistical argument for CP3>Kobe in terms of Peak+Prime+Career is surprisingly strong. DPM and EPM strongly favors Paul. Paul's career RAPM is also higher. RAPTOR also favors CP3 in terms of Peak+Prime+Career Value. As does BPM. Argument for Kobe over Chris Paul for this project probably focuses on Paul's questionable durability and modest team success


https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_29y.html

While it wouldn't be my pick for Paul's peak, I feel like someone worried about durability could pretty comfortably take 2011 over any Kobe season. Played 86 out of 88 games between the regular season and postseason, and it would still be 4 years from this point until CP would have his first missed playoff game due to injury.

He led the playoffs in PER, WS/48, and BPM with higher numbers in each than Kobe ever managed in his career. His regular season on/off of +13.9 would also beat every Kobe season and his playoff on/off of +22.7 would beat every Kobe playoffs except '99. His regular season BPM would beat every Kobe season except 2006.

Someone worried about playoff success would probably have to look to 2014 (my pick) where CP3 at least played every playoff game and led his team to a very impressive postseason net rating of +6.9 when he was on the floor against opposition with an average SRS of +5.9 for a rNetRtg of +12.8. It's not quite as good as Kobe leading the '09 Lakers to a +11.0 net rating when he was on the floor against opposition with an average SRS of +3.9 for a rNetRtg of +14.9, but for a supporting cast that performed 12 points worse adjusted for opposition, I think it's still more impressive.

[f4p]

There was a discussion on Reddit where I was comparing xRAPM numbers for Kobe and Chris Paul by age during their primes. Thought the results were pretty interesting so I wanted to post them here:

https://xrapm.com/table_pages/xRAPM.html

• ⁠Age 21: CP3 3.7, Kobe 1.4
• ⁠Age 22: CP3 5.5, Kobe 3.5
• ⁠Age 23: CP3 7.7, Kobe 3.9
• ⁠Age 24: CP3 7.1, Kobe 4.9
• ⁠Age 25: CP3 6.7, Kobe 4.0
• ⁠Age 26: CP3 6.8, Kobe 3.2
• ⁠Age 27: CP3 7.0, Kobe 5.4
• ⁠Age 28: CP3 7.9, Kobe 4.8
• ⁠Age 29: CP3 8.1, Kobe 6.4
• ⁠Age 30: CP3 8.0, Kobe 5.5
• ⁠Age 31: CP3 7.6, Kobe 5.0
• ⁠Age 32: CP3 7.5, Kobe 3.2
• ⁠Age 33: CP3 5.2, Kobe 2.2
• ⁠Age 34: CP3 4.5, Kobe 1.9

I find it interesting that not only does CP3 clear Kobe at every prime age, he does so relatively easily. The closest is age 29, Kobe’s 2008 season and Chris Paul’s 2015 season where Chris Paul still leads Kobe by 1.8. Kobe’s 3rd in the league in RAPM in 2008 while CP3 leads the league in 2015. CP3 also has 10 seasons in a row with better numbers than Kobe’s peak from age 23-32.

Even if you naturally want to focus on an individual season or two for this project, I think the context of how Chris Paul clears Kobe so easily at every prime age shows a lot of important context that the numbers aren’t just fluky in an individual year.

The statistical argument for CP3>Kobe in terms of Peak+Prime+Career is surprisingly strong. DPM and EPM strongly favors Paul. Paul's career RAPM is also higher. RAPTOR also favors CP3 in terms of Peak+Prime+Career Value. As does BPM. Argument for Kobe over Chris Paul for this project probably focuses on Paul's questionable durability and modest team success


https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_29y.html

I admittedly have no good explanation, but it just "feels like" impact stats play favorites. Obviously they're just numbers and don't care, but you know what I mean.

Like Chris paul just always looks amazing. And Kobe rarely looks amazing. So Chris paul must be the guy with 5 titles whose playoffs we all remember? Nope. Kevin Garnett always looks amazing, so he must have never disappointed in the playoffs. Nope. I think drob generally loos amazing. Must be better than Hakeem? Nope. John Stockton at an old age looks amazing and he played with a top 20 guys his whole career, tons of rings right? Nope.

Like it seems like being the guy who "does all the right things" tends to make you look amazing by impact. And in some sense, maybe it should. Doing the right thing is good. But then I watch guys who are a little messy but just do unstoppable high volume stuff win and I wonder if impact metrics "get it ". Kobe goes to 3 straight finals, low impact dwade wins in 2006, moderate RAPM guy Hakeem dominate all comers like DRob.

Like it just seems like being a force of nature seems to be more important than doing all the right things and none of the wrongs things. But RAPM and such always love the meticulous guys who go home in the 1st or 2nd round while the winners you know what the prom queen.

[jalengreen]

CP3's impact data is pretty crazy in general, it's even competitive with Curry if you use xRAPM or DARKO (Pretty sure EPM is worse for him though)





On top of still being 4th in 29 year RAPM

But like, the playoffs. So yeah lol

[iggymcfrack]

There was a discussion on Reddit where I was comparing xRAPM numbers for Kobe and Chris Paul by age during their primes. Thought the results were pretty interesting so I wanted to post them here:

https://xrapm.com/table_pages/xRAPM.html

• ⁠Age 21: CP3 3.7, Kobe 1.4
• ⁠Age 22: CP3 5.5, Kobe 3.5
• ⁠Age 23: CP3 7.7, Kobe 3.9
• ⁠Age 24: CP3 7.1, Kobe 4.9
• ⁠Age 25: CP3 6.7, Kobe 4.0
• ⁠Age 26: CP3 6.8, Kobe 3.2
• ⁠Age 27: CP3 7.0, Kobe 5.4
• ⁠Age 28: CP3 7.9, Kobe 4.8
• ⁠Age 29: CP3 8.1, Kobe 6.4
• ⁠Age 30: CP3 8.0, Kobe 5.5
• ⁠Age 31: CP3 7.6, Kobe 5.0
• ⁠Age 32: CP3 7.5, Kobe 3.2
• ⁠Age 33: CP3 5.2, Kobe 2.2
• ⁠Age 34: CP3 4.5, Kobe 1.9

I find it interesting that not only does CP3 clear Kobe at every prime age, he does so relatively easily. The closest is age 29, Kobe’s 2008 season and Chris Paul’s 2015 season where Chris Paul still leads Kobe by 1.8. Kobe’s 3rd in the league in RAPM in 2008 while CP3 leads the league in 2015. CP3 also has 10 seasons in a row with better numbers than Kobe’s peak from age 23-32.

Even if you naturally want to focus on an individual season or two for this project, I think the context of how Chris Paul clears Kobe so easily at every prime age shows a lot of important context that the numbers aren’t just fluky in an individual year.

The statistical argument for CP3>Kobe in terms of Peak+Prime+Career is surprisingly strong. DPM and EPM strongly favors Paul. Paul's career RAPM is also higher. RAPTOR also favors CP3 in terms of Peak+Prime+Career Value. As does BPM. Argument for Kobe over Chris Paul for this project probably focuses on Paul's questionable durability and modest team success


https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_29y.html

I admittedly have no good explanation, but it just "feels like" impact stats play favorites. Obviously they're just numbers and don't care, but you know what I mean.

Like Chris paul just always looks amazing. And Kobe rarely looks amazing. So Chris paul must be the guy with 5 titles whose playoffs we all remember? Nope. Kevin Garnett always looks amazing, so he must have never disappointed in the playoffs. Nope. I think drob generally loos amazing. Must be better than Hakeem? Nope. John Stockton at an old age looks amazing and he played with a top 20 guys his whole career, tons of rings right? Nope.

Like it seems like being the guy who "does all the right things" tends to make you look amazing by impact. And in some sense, maybe it should. Doing the right thing is good. But then I watch guys who are a little messy but just do unstoppable high volume stuff win and I wonder if impact metrics "get it ". Kobe goes to 3 straight finals, low impact dwade wins in 2006, moderate RAPM guy Hakeem dominate all comers like DRob.

Like it just seems like being a force of nature seems to be more important than doing all the right things and none of the wrongs things. But RAPM and such always love the meticulous guys who go home in the 1st or 2nd round while the winners you know what the prom queen.

The key factor that you’re missing here is having **** teammates. Look at how these players’ teams have performed over the course of their career when they’re on the bench:

Kobe -0.4
CP3: -2.7
KG: -5.1

It doesn’t matter how much of a “force of nature” you are if you don’t have good players around you. Basketball’s a 5-on-5 game, not 1-on-1. Even Jordan and LeBron at their statistical peaks couldn’t win rings until their teammates came along.

We saw what Kobe was like with poor teammates. From 2005-2007 right in the heart of his athletic prime, he played with guys who had a point differential of -6.1 when he was on the bench. So only slightly worse than the average teammates KG had over his entire career including the good teams in Boston. Kobe had a losing record in the regular season those 3 years and failed to win a playoff series.

Trying to compare impact stats on older guys who had their best years before the advent of full play-by-play data is tough because a lot of what you’re looking at is how slowly they declined rather than how good they were. Hakeem was a much better #1 than the Admiral in 1994 when we don’t have data, but that doesn’t mean he was a better #2 at the turn of the century when we do.

You said Wade was low impact in 2006, but that’s totally false. He led the entire league in RAPM that season. His career RAPM numbers aren’t great due to his injuries and early decline, but his numbers from his peak years were absolutely elite.

[Caneman786]

But like, the playoffs. So yeah lol

The lack of super team, you mean.

[jalengreen]

But like, the playoffs. So yeah lol

The lack of super team, you mean.

Not how I'd put it

[Cavsfansince84]

A lot of the CP3 talk is too career based for a peaks project imo. I think most of us know he's sort of a rapm god over the last 20 years. It seems like most are going with 2015 for his peak and you have to take into account the 3-1 blown lead to the Rockets in the 2nd rd. Though having said that, he didn't actually play bad during the comeback. He played pretty well so its hard to hold the loss against him that much but at the end of the day its his 6.8srs team losing to a 3.8 srs team that both won 56 games. Which isn't great in a peaks project.

[iggymcfrack]

A lot of the CP3 talk is too career based for a peaks project imo. I think most of us know he's sort of a rapm god over the last 20 years. It seems like most are going with 2015 for his peak and you have to take into account the 3-1 blown lead to the Rockets in the 2nd rd. Though having said that, he didn't actually play bad during the comeback. He played pretty well so its hard to hold the loss against him that much but at the end of the day its his 6.8srs team losing to a 3.8 srs team that both won 56 games. Which isn't great in a peaks project.

What do you think about the 2014 season instead? He misses 20 games in the regular season and his RS impact numbers aren't quite as good, but he's healthy for all 13 playoff games and he performs pretty immaculately in the playoffs with single game plus/minuses of +26, -2, +4, +12, +11, and -4 in the series they end up losing to the Thunder.

[Joao Saraiva]

1. Kobe Bryant 2006
Explosive scoring in the RS as we are yet to see. Carry job for a playoff spot in a tough conference and taking the Suns to 7 games. That is definitely an overachievement and one I don't think many stars could replicate - not that others can't have the same impact on numbers, I just beleive the team had no scoring at all so I believe this particular skillset was the way to do it.

2. Dirk Nowiztki 2011
Ultimate shooter as the PF and the prototype of what the game evolved into. Superb playoff run eliminating hall of famers in a row while performing very well. Easily one of the best PS runs still available.

3. Kawih Leonard 19
Kawih was balling that season. Very consistent, unstopable with his jumpers, elite defender with an elite defensive unit besides him.
Took Toronto to a new level and made em champions with a cast that was always underwhelming in the post season. Definitely a game changer for the franchise and the main responsible for their ring.

4. SGA 25
The best player and offensive focal point on one of the best ever teams. It's just natural he's on the next spots in the list.
Great offensive force creating for himself, decent playmaker, tremendous slasher and great at drawing fouls, making him one of the most consistent and efficient scorers of the modern era.

[ReggiesKnicks]

A lot of the CP3 talk is too career based for a peaks project imo. I think most of us know he's sort of a rapm god over the last 20 years. It seems like most are going with 2015 for his peak and you have to take into account the 3-1 blown lead to the Rockets in the 2nd rd. Though having said that, he didn't actually play bad during the comeback. He played pretty well so its hard to hold the loss against him that much but at the end of the day its his 6.8srs team losing to a 3.8 srs team that both won 56 games. Which isn't great in a peaks project.

This is already baked into CP3 being discussed for #9-#10, rather than #5-#6.

[Doctor MJ]

A lot of the CP3 talk is too career based for a peaks project imo. I think most of us know he's sort of a rapm god over the last 20 years. It seems like most are going with 2015 for his peak and you have to take into account the 3-1 blown lead to the Rockets in the 2nd rd. Though having said that, he didn't actually play bad during the comeback. He played pretty well so its hard to hold the loss against him that much but at the end of the day its his 6.8srs team losing to a 3.8 srs team that both won 56 games. Which isn't great in a peaks project.

I do think it's worth nothing that in that 7 game series, Paul played less than 50 total minutes in the first 4 games where his team won 3 of 4, and in the only 3 games where he played starter minutes (5-7), they lost each time.

I'm not going to say Paul played glaringly bad when he did play, but what I would say is that Paul taking on the Paul role again couldn't help but shift how others played, and his addition really didn't make the team perform better like we'd hope given impact-expectation from RAPM.

Consider Clipper assists by non-Paul players by game:

Game 1: 31
Game 2: 20
Game 3: 19
Game 4: 15
Game 5: 12
Game 6: 8
Game 7: 13

Now, you can certainly argue that what the Clippers did in Game 1 without Paul was unsustainable, but

a) It is worth noting that the Clippers' peak in assists, and also the peak individual assist game (Griffin with 13) happened without Paul

b) we see a downward trend even without Game 1 here

c) It's pretty clear that Griffin played a different role - more point forward - when Paul wasn't there.

[Doctor MJ]

A lot of the CP3 talk is too career based for a peaks project imo. I think most of us know he's sort of a rapm god over the last 20 years. It seems like most are going with 2015 for his peak and you have to take into account the 3-1 blown lead to the Rockets in the 2nd rd. Though having said that, he didn't actually play bad during the comeback. He played pretty well so its hard to hold the loss against him that much but at the end of the day its his 6.8srs team losing to a 3.8 srs team that both won 56 games. Which isn't great in a peaks project.

What do you think about the 2014 season instead? He misses 20 games in the regular season and his RS impact numbers aren't quite as good, but he's healthy for all 13 playoff games and he performs pretty immaculately in the playoffs with single game plus/minuses of +26, -2, +4, +12, +11, and -4 in the series they end up losing to the Thunder.

So, fine for people to push back against what I'm going to point out, but "immaculate" is not what the story of Paul's play was not the takeaway:

Paul on loss: 'It's just bad basketball'

In the biggest game of his career, Paul suddenly experienced the worst 45-second stretch of his career and was at a loss for words when trying to explain what happened.

"It's me. Everything that happened there at the end is on me," Paul said. "The turnover with 17 seconds left, assuming they were going to foul was the dumbest play I've ever made. To even put it in the official's hand to call a foul on a 3 ... it's just bad basketball."

Maybe the bitter final note underrates Paul in the series, but the ending of 2014 is kinda Paul's lowest narrative point.

[homecourtloss]

This era of basketball just has so much talent. You’re going to have only two of Dirk, Kobe, SGA, Kawhi, and KD voted in the top ten peaks when they all have a case with perhaps KD’s the weakest.