Would you offer Ayo an extension?

[League Circles]

Ayo is arguably projecting to be the worst rotation player on a mediocre quality team. Now that's not an insult because I think we're pretty deep, but we need a lot omore certainty on a long term high quality core before we start giving out long term deals to relatively low upside players that are going to be near the bottom of our rotation.

I think there is a wide variance in the opinion of Ayo. The only people I'm 98% sure are better than Ayo in the upcoming season (barring injuries) are Giddey and Coby. I think a lot of the problem is I think looking at Ayo's effort and theoretical capabilities make me feel like he's a lot better than the practical output he has given us, but I'm not sure if that is really justifiable. I could also see him being like our 12th best guy too, so I'm not locked in on him necessarily being great, but I just think there is a lot of variance there.

I agree. I see him personally as a pretty clear high floor player who can play with anyone as a utility guy who simply isn't that good. Reminds me a lot of Kirk Hinrich without as good of ball or shooting skills, but better conditioning and physical tools.

But I think Matas is clearly already better and projects to be way better. Jones also currently better. But Ayo simply isn't the archetype that it looks like we'll need, and he'll impede our quest to get a guy like that due to playing time, payroll and hurting our draft picks at least marginally.

Kirk really is a good parallel in that sense which is why we actually paid a mid first rounder to dump him in 2009 so we could chase the guys we actually needed (Lebron, etc).

[jnrjr79]

I disagree. Ayo could play pretty well and still not be advisable to keep. Depends heavily on how we look as a team and how those other guys look. He's really going to need to look significantly better than at least Okoro and probably Patrick to justify keeping, because they're already under contract. IMO these guys all project as better in the rotation:

Matas
Giddey
Coby
Jones

In addition to those guys, at least two centers and Essengue, while not in any direct competition with Ayo, will be ahead of him in the rotation most likely for positional and/or long term development reasons (Essengue). So IMO that's 7 guys that Ayo is unlikely to pass in the rotation. So IMO he's in the conversation of 8th and lower in the rotation with these guys:

Patrick - not as good as Ayo at the moment at least on offense (where Ayo isn't good either) but has more defensive upside and flexibility.

Huerter - more offensive ability, but I lean towards Ayo over him

Okoro - I think Ayo will and should start behind him in the rotation. We just traded a guy we clearly valued for him and we have longer to evaluate him under contract.

The only things up for debate really IMO are who is going to back up Giddey and who will get the minutes at the 2 spot.

The backup 4 will be either Essengue or Patrick.

The backup 1 will be Jones.

Okoro will definitely be in the rotation and probably starting.

It's really Ayo vs Huerter to play the rest of the minutes at the 2 spot unless we play more than a 10 man rotation or Essengue gets zero minutes, which would then move Patrick to the backup 4, leaving Huerter as the backup 3 and Ayo/Okoro at the 2.

I mean if people want to say Ayo is better than Vuc I won't argue, but it's apples and oranges. Ayo is better than the non rotation guys too like Terry, Carter and Phillips. I personally would have him as 10th and bench Huerter, but Huerter's shooting might outweigh Ayo's all around game.

Well, what to think about any of this scenario (e.g. if Ayo is good, should the Bulls keep him) depends on his number.

Patrick Williams is effectively irrelevant to the discussion. He is not of positional relevance to Ayo and is just dead salary until proven otherwise. The Bulls have to deal with him re: Ayo no more than any other player salary.

Okoro - I think he may earn the starting job, but I also think people are way too far out over their skis on him. He has to prove it, and he's probably always going to be less offensively productive than Peak Ayo, if Ayo ever gets back there.

Jones will be around, but also seems like the classic "you signed this guy to a good deal to be able to trade him" kind of dude. Much like the Lonzo contract.

Huerter is expiring and also irrelevant.

I think the over-arching thing here is the Bulls have a ton of expiring salary that's not likely to be around past the deadline or past next season, so you're not going to be making Ayo predictions based on today's roster construction. You'll have to factor who is in and who is out at the deadline and during the offseason.

To me, unless Ayo is looking like "the answer" as a long term 5th starter, I wouldn't really re-sign him to any long term deal. I don't want to spend cap space on bench role players for the foreseeable future. Especially with Patrick and Jones already in that space.

I see all 4 of Okoro, Ayo, Patrick and Huerter as big question marks roughly competing for the same role (5th starter wing defender). If I were to guess right now, I'd give the edge to Okoro, then probably Ayo and Patrick roughly equal, then Huerter as a pretty distant 4th cause I can't imagine him working defensively with Giddey and Coby.

I like Ayo a lot but also think he's very replaceable and a luxury we can't afford due to opportunity cost.

I don't really care whether Huerter is "competing" for a role this year, since he'll be gone next year or earlier. To me, evaluating what to do with Ayo depends only on other guys 1) matter, and 2) will be around long-term. That's Giddey, Essengue, and Matas (and maybe Coby, if they re-sign him). Nobody else really matters. If, for instance, Ayo overlaps with Tre Jones for the first year of Ayo's new deal, who cares? This is small potatoes stuff. And all the guys expiring this year could not be more meaningless - they won't be around for Ayo's new deal. Those guy's could lessen Ayo's role this year by virtue of their mere presence, but that could have a sneaky benefit if it lowers the price to re-sign him.

In any event, I'm not fired up one way or the other about Ayo. My point was just that the Bulls will be able to see how he plays this year before making a decision on what to do with him. I'd trade darn near anything other than Giddey, Essengue, and Matas right now (and even those guys aren't safe in a "Giannis just became available" scenario).

[jnrjr79]

Ayo is arguably projecting to be the worst rotation player on a mediocre quality team. Now that's not an insult because I think we're pretty deep, but we need a lot omore certainty on a long term high quality core before we start giving out long term deals to relatively low upside players that are going to be near the bottom of our rotation.

I think there is a wide variance in the opinion of Ayo. The only people I'm 98% sure are better than Ayo in the upcoming season (barring injuries) are Giddey and Coby. I think a lot of the problem is I think looking at Ayo's effort and theoretical capabilities make me feel like he's a lot better than the practical output he has given us, but I'm not sure if that is really justifiable. I could also see him being like our 12th best guy too, so I'm not locked in on him necessarily being great, but I just think there is a lot of variance there.

Right. And this year (barring another injury) should be an opportunity to see whether his recent regression was just something that happened vs. a result of playing through an injury.

[League Circles]

Well, what to think about any of this scenario (e.g. if Ayo is good, should the Bulls keep him) depends on his number.

Patrick Williams is effectively irrelevant to the discussion. He is not of positional relevance to Ayo and is just dead salary until proven otherwise. The Bulls have to deal with him re: Ayo no more than any other player salary.

Okoro - I think he may earn the starting job, but I also think people are way too far out over their skis on him. He has to prove it, and he's probably always going to be less offensively productive than Peak Ayo, if Ayo ever gets back there.

Jones will be around, but also seems like the classic "you signed this guy to a good deal to be able to trade him" kind of dude. Much like the Lonzo contract.

Huerter is expiring and also irrelevant.

I think the over-arching thing here is the Bulls have a ton of expiring salary that's not likely to be around past the deadline or past next season, so you're not going to be making Ayo predictions based on today's roster construction. You'll have to factor who is in and who is out at the deadline and during the offseason.

To me, unless Ayo is looking like "the answer" as a long term 5th starter, I wouldn't really re-sign him to any long term deal. I don't want to spend cap space on bench role players for the foreseeable future. Especially with Patrick and Jones already in that space.

I see all 4 of Okoro, Ayo, Patrick and Huerter as big question marks roughly competing for the same role (5th starter wing defender). If I were to guess right now, I'd give the edge to Okoro, then probably Ayo and Patrick roughly equal, then Huerter as a pretty distant 4th cause I can't imagine him working defensively with Giddey and Coby.

I like Ayo a lot but also think he's very replaceable and a luxury we can't afford due to opportunity cost.

I don't really care whether Huerter is "competing" for a role this year, since he'll be gone next year or earlier. To me, evaluating what to do with Ayo depends only on other guys 1) matter, and 2) will be around long-term. That's Giddey, Essengue, and Matas (and maybe Coby, if they re-sign him). Nobody else really matters. If, for instance, Ayo overlaps with Tre Jones for the first year of Ayo's new deal, who cares? This is small potatoes stuff. And all the guys expiring this year could not be more meaningless - they won't be around for Ayo's new deal. Those guy's could lessen Ayo's role this year by virtue of their mere presence, but that could have a sneaky benefit if it lowers the price to re-sign him.

In any event, I'm not fired up one way or the other about Ayo. My point was just that the Bulls will be able to see how he plays this year before making a decision on what to do with him. I'd trade darn near anything other than Giddey, Essengue, and Matas right now (and even those guys aren't safe in a "Giannis just became available" scenario).

I also don't care about this year. I just don't understand what makes expiring Ayo and different than the other guys like Huerter.

When I talk about role competition involving Ayo, I'm talking long term.

[sco]

I don't really know what Ayo projects to be and more or less I don't care. I think we're going to find out pretty quickly whether last year's sub-par performance was because he was playing with a bum shoulder or whether he's just generally regressed. And that'll make the decision about whether to keep him pretty straightforward, IMO. If it was a health thing last year, then he'll be a lot better than "worst rotation player on a mediocre team." If it wasn't, well, that description may be apt.

I disagree. Ayo could play pretty well and still not be advisable to keep. Depends heavily on how we look as a team and how those other guys look. He's really going to need to look significantly better than at least Okoro and probably Patrick to justify keeping, because they're already under contract. IMO these guys all project as better in the rotation:

Matas
Giddey
Coby
Jones

In addition to those guys, at least two centers and Essengue, while not in any direct competition with Ayo, will be ahead of him in the rotation most likely for positional and/or long term development reasons (Essengue). So IMO that's 7 guys that Ayo is unlikely to pass in the rotation. So IMO he's in the conversation of 8th and lower in the rotation with these guys:

Patrick - not as good as Ayo at the moment at least on offense (where Ayo isn't good either) but has more defensive upside and flexibility.

Huerter - more offensive ability, but I lean towards Ayo over him

Okoro - I think Ayo will and should start behind him in the rotation. We just traded a guy we clearly valued for him and we have longer to evaluate him under contract.

The only things up for debate really IMO are who is going to back up Giddey and who will get the minutes at the 2 spot.

The backup 4 will be either Essengue or Patrick.

The backup 1 will be Jones.

Okoro will definitely be in the rotation and probably starting.

It's really Ayo vs Huerter to play the rest of the minutes at the 2 spot unless we play more than a 10 man rotation or Essengue gets zero minutes, which would then move Patrick to the backup 4, leaving Huerter as the backup 3 and Ayo/Okoro at the 2.

I mean if people want to say Ayo is better than Vuc I won't argue, but it's apples and oranges. Ayo is better than the non rotation guys too like Terry, Carter and Phillips. I personally would have him as 10th and bench Huerter, but Huerter's shooting might outweigh Ayo's all around game.

Well, what to think about any of this scenario (e.g. if Ayo is good, should the Bulls keep him) depends on his number.

Patrick Williams is effectively irrelevant to the discussion. He is not of positional relevance to Ayo and is just dead salary until proven otherwise. The Bulls have to deal with him re: Ayo no more than any other player salary.

Okoro - I think he may earn the starting job, but I also think people are way too far out over their skis on him. He has to prove it, and he's probably always going to be less offensively productive than Peak Ayo, if Ayo ever gets back there.

Jones will be around, but also seems like the classic "you signed this guy to a good deal to be able to trade him" kind of dude. Much like the Lonzo contract.

Huerter is expiring and also irrelevant.

I think the over-arching thing here is the Bulls have a ton of expiring salary that's not likely to be around past the deadline or past next season, so you're not going to be making Ayo predictions based on today's roster construction. You'll have to factor who is in and who is out at the deadline and during the offseason.

I think you are right. Ayo isn't going to get enough minutes to make him want to stay, barring a consolidation trade at the deadline (although I could see him as one of the most likely pieces included in that kind of deal). The interesting dynamic will be, if he doesn't get many minutes this season, why would any team pony up more than $10M, possibly less, for him?

Based on limited comments from the presser and from Billy, post day 1 practice, I think that Okoro is pretty locked in as our 5th starter based on our defensive focus. And with Jones seemingly locked in as our back-up PG, and with him being, IMO, a better POA defender than Ayo, I see Huerter getting the nod at one back-up wing spot. So that leaves Ayo and Pat (and maybe Terry and/or Phillips) fighting for back-up minutes at the other wing spot (with Pat and Essengue battling for minutes at the back-up PF, maybe with Smith too). I could see Ayo winning that battle. Best case he sees 18MPG.

[jnrjr79]

To me, unless Ayo is looking like "the answer" as a long term 5th starter, I wouldn't really re-sign him to any long term deal. I don't want to spend cap space on bench role players for the foreseeable future. Especially with Patrick and Jones already in that space.

I see all 4 of Okoro, Ayo, Patrick and Huerter as big question marks roughly competing for the same role (5th starter wing defender). If I were to guess right now, I'd give the edge to Okoro, then probably Ayo and Patrick roughly equal, then Huerter as a pretty distant 4th cause I can't imagine him working defensively with Giddey and Coby.

I like Ayo a lot but also think he's very replaceable and a luxury we can't afford due to opportunity cost.

I don't really care whether Huerter is "competing" for a role this year, since he'll be gone next year or earlier. To me, evaluating what to do with Ayo depends only on other guys 1) matter, and 2) will be around long-term. That's Giddey, Essengue, and Matas (and maybe Coby, if they re-sign him). Nobody else really matters. If, for instance, Ayo overlaps with Tre Jones for the first year of Ayo's new deal, who cares? This is small potatoes stuff. And all the guys expiring this year could not be more meaningless - they won't be around for Ayo's new deal. Those guy's could lessen Ayo's role this year by virtue of their mere presence, but that could have a sneaky benefit if it lowers the price to re-sign him.

In any event, I'm not fired up one way or the other about Ayo. My point was just that the Bulls will be able to see how he plays this year before making a decision on what to do with him. I'd trade darn near anything other than Giddey, Essengue, and Matas right now (and even those guys aren't safe in a "Giannis just became available" scenario).

I also don't care about this year. I just don't understand what makes expiring Ayo and different than the other guys like Huerter.

When I talk about role competition involving Ayo, I'm talking long term.

Re: the first point, this discussion started when I noted that the season would give you data on Ayo that should tell you whether he's regressed, in which case you probably don't want him, or whether his poor play was due to injury, in which case he might be a keeper. You responded by noting all the other guys he's competing with, so I guess I'm not following here.

What makes Ayo a "different" expiring is he was drafted by AK, is from Chicago, a fan favorite, etc. I'm not sure any of those is a good reason to keep him around, and it's been reported there have been Ayo trade talks so he may well not be, but I'd imagine the org views him differently than the other expiring guys (except Coby).

Re: the 2nd point, I suppose I'm also not sure I'm following, as you're identifying his role competition consisting of guys who are quite unlikely to be around. I don't find much utility in discussing Ayo's role in the theoretical universe where Kevin Huerter is a Bull next year, because I feel pretty confident Kevin Huerter isn't going to be a Bull this year.

[jnrjr79]

I disagree. Ayo could play pretty well and still not be advisable to keep. Depends heavily on how we look as a team and how those other guys look. He's really going to need to look significantly better than at least Okoro and probably Patrick to justify keeping, because they're already under contract. IMO these guys all project as better in the rotation:

Matas
Giddey
Coby
Jones

In addition to those guys, at least two centers and Essengue, while not in any direct competition with Ayo, will be ahead of him in the rotation most likely for positional and/or long term development reasons (Essengue). So IMO that's 7 guys that Ayo is unlikely to pass in the rotation. So IMO he's in the conversation of 8th and lower in the rotation with these guys:

Patrick - not as good as Ayo at the moment at least on offense (where Ayo isn't good either) but has more defensive upside and flexibility.

Huerter - more offensive ability, but I lean towards Ayo over him

Okoro - I think Ayo will and should start behind him in the rotation. We just traded a guy we clearly valued for him and we have longer to evaluate him under contract.

The only things up for debate really IMO are who is going to back up Giddey and who will get the minutes at the 2 spot.

The backup 4 will be either Essengue or Patrick.

The backup 1 will be Jones.

Okoro will definitely be in the rotation and probably starting.

It's really Ayo vs Huerter to play the rest of the minutes at the 2 spot unless we play more than a 10 man rotation or Essengue gets zero minutes, which would then move Patrick to the backup 4, leaving Huerter as the backup 3 and Ayo/Okoro at the 2.

I mean if people want to say Ayo is better than Vuc I won't argue, but it's apples and oranges. Ayo is better than the non rotation guys too like Terry, Carter and Phillips. I personally would have him as 10th and bench Huerter, but Huerter's shooting might outweigh Ayo's all around game.

Well, what to think about any of this scenario (e.g. if Ayo is good, should the Bulls keep him) depends on his number.

Patrick Williams is effectively irrelevant to the discussion. He is not of positional relevance to Ayo and is just dead salary until proven otherwise. The Bulls have to deal with him re: Ayo no more than any other player salary.

Okoro - I think he may earn the starting job, but I also think people are way too far out over their skis on him. He has to prove it, and he's probably always going to be less offensively productive than Peak Ayo, if Ayo ever gets back there.

Jones will be around, but also seems like the classic "you signed this guy to a good deal to be able to trade him" kind of dude. Much like the Lonzo contract.

Huerter is expiring and also irrelevant.

I think the over-arching thing here is the Bulls have a ton of expiring salary that's not likely to be around past the deadline or past next season, so you're not going to be making Ayo predictions based on today's roster construction. You'll have to factor who is in and who is out at the deadline and during the offseason.

I think you are right. Ayo isn't going to get enough minutes to make him want to stay, barring a consolidation trade at the deadline (although I could see him as one of the most likely pieces included in that kind of deal). The interesting dynamic will be, if he doesn't get many minutes this season, why would any team pony up more than $10M, possibly less, for him?

Based on limited comments from the presser and from Billy, post day 1 practice, I think that Okoro is pretty locked in as our 5th starter based on our defensive focus. And with Jones seemingly locked in as our back-up PG, and with him being, IMO, a better POA defender than Ayo, I see Huerter getting the nod at one back-up wing spot. So that leaves Ayo and Pat (and maybe Terry and/or Phillips) fighting for back-up minutes at the other wing spot (with Pat and Essengue battling for minutes at the back-up PF, maybe with Smith too). I could see Ayo winning that battle. Best case he sees 18MPG.

18 MPG seems pretty realistic to me. The other thing is inevitably there will be injuries and the rotation will change over the course of the year.

[League Circles]

I don't really care whether Huerter is "competing" for a role this year, since he'll be gone next year or earlier. To me, evaluating what to do with Ayo depends only on other guys 1) matter, and 2) will be around long-term. That's Giddey, Essengue, and Matas (and maybe Coby, if they re-sign him). Nobody else really matters. If, for instance, Ayo overlaps with Tre Jones for the first year of Ayo's new deal, who cares? This is small potatoes stuff. And all the guys expiring this year could not be more meaningless - they won't be around for Ayo's new deal. Those guy's could lessen Ayo's role this year by virtue of their mere presence, but that could have a sneaky benefit if it lowers the price to re-sign him.

In any event, I'm not fired up one way or the other about Ayo. My point was just that the Bulls will be able to see how he plays this year before making a decision on what to do with him. I'd trade darn near anything other than Giddey, Essengue, and Matas right now (and even those guys aren't safe in a "Giannis just became available" scenario).

I also don't care about this year. I just don't understand what makes expiring Ayo and different than the other guys like Huerter.

When I talk about role competition involving Ayo, I'm talking long term.

Re: the first point, this discussion started when I noted that the season would give you data on Ayo that should tell you whether he's regressed, in which case you probably don't want him, or whether his poor play was due to injury, in which case he might be a keeper. You responded by noting all the other guys he's competing with, so I guess I'm not following here.

What makes Ayo a "different" expiring is he was drafted by AK, is from Chicago, a fan favorite, etc. I'm not sure any of those is a good reason to keep him around, and it's been reported there have been Ayo trade talks so he may well not be, but I'd imagine the org views him differently than the other expiring guys (except Coby).

Re: the 2nd point, I suppose I'm also not sure I'm following, as you're identifying his role competition consisting of guys who are quite unlikely to be around. I don't find much utility in discussing Ayo's role in the theoretical universe where Kevin Huerter is a Bull next year, because I feel pretty confident Kevin Huerter isn't going to be a Bull this year.

I was talking about what we should do, not what we will do. I agree Huerter is unlikely to be back, but I feel the same about Ayo, and because we're equally (un)invested in both of them, it should be an open competition with the long term in mind. Same with Okoro and Patrick IMO, but they both have an edge due to contract status. That's why in order for either Huerter OR Ayo to be kept, they'd need to significantly outplay Okoro AND Patrick.

AK also drafted Patrick much higher and paid him pretty big for 5 years, and just traded for Okoro, so I don't think Ayo is any more favored than them.

[League Circles]

Well, what to think about any of this scenario (e.g. if Ayo is good, should the Bulls keep him) depends on his number.

Patrick Williams is effectively irrelevant to the discussion. He is not of positional relevance to Ayo and is just dead salary until proven otherwise. The Bulls have to deal with him re: Ayo no more than any other player salary.

Okoro - I think he may earn the starting job, but I also think people are way too far out over their skis on him. He has to prove it, and he's probably always going to be less offensively productive than Peak Ayo, if Ayo ever gets back there.

Jones will be around, but also seems like the classic "you signed this guy to a good deal to be able to trade him" kind of dude. Much like the Lonzo contract.

Huerter is expiring and also irrelevant.

I think the over-arching thing here is the Bulls have a ton of expiring salary that's not likely to be around past the deadline or past next season, so you're not going to be making Ayo predictions based on today's roster construction. You'll have to factor who is in and who is out at the deadline and during the offseason.

I think you are right. Ayo isn't going to get enough minutes to make him want to stay, barring a consolidation trade at the deadline (although I could see him as one of the most likely pieces included in that kind of deal). The interesting dynamic will be, if he doesn't get many minutes this season, why would any team pony up more than $10M, possibly less, for him?

Based on limited comments from the presser and from Billy, post day 1 practice, I think that Okoro is pretty locked in as our 5th starter based on our defensive focus. And with Jones seemingly locked in as our back-up PG, and with him being, IMO, a better POA defender than Ayo, I see Huerter getting the nod at one back-up wing spot. So that leaves Ayo and Pat (and maybe Terry and/or Phillips) fighting for back-up minutes at the other wing spot (with Pat and Essengue battling for minutes at the back-up PF, maybe with Smith too). I could see Ayo winning that battle. Best case he sees 18MPG.

18 MPG seems pretty realistic to me. The other thing is inevitably there will be injuries and the rotation will change over the course of the year.

In the off-season all mpg projections kinda have to be done assuming everyone is healthy all year.

Even if we only play a 10 man rotation AND Ayo beats out Huerter, it's super easy to see Ayo only getting 18 mpg or less behind Okoro:

5: Vuc/Smith/Collins whatever mpg split
4: Matas 32, Essengue 16
3: Giddey 34, Patrick 14
2: Okoro 30, Ayo 18
1: Coby 34, Jones 14 mpg

[jnrjr79]

I also don't care about this year. I just don't understand what makes expiring Ayo and different than the other guys like Huerter.

When I talk about role competition involving Ayo, I'm talking long term.

Re: the first point, this discussion started when I noted that the season would give you data on Ayo that should tell you whether he's regressed, in which case you probably don't want him, or whether his poor play was due to injury, in which case he might be a keeper. You responded by noting all the other guys he's competing with, so I guess I'm not following here.

What makes Ayo a "different" expiring is he was drafted by AK, is from Chicago, a fan favorite, etc. I'm not sure any of those is a good reason to keep him around, and it's been reported there have been Ayo trade talks so he may well not be, but I'd imagine the org views him differently than the other expiring guys (except Coby).

Re: the 2nd point, I suppose I'm also not sure I'm following, as you're identifying his role competition consisting of guys who are quite unlikely to be around. I don't find much utility in discussing Ayo's role in the theoretical universe where Kevin Huerter is a Bull next year, because I feel pretty confident Kevin Huerter isn't going to be a Bull this year.

I was talking about what we should do, not what we will do. I agree Huerter is unlikely to be back, but I feel the same about Ayo, and because we're equally (un)invested in both of them, it should be an open competition with the long term in mind.

I do not agree we're equally uninvested in those two players.

Same with Okoro and Patrick IMO, but they both have an edge due to contract status. That's why in order for either Huerter OR Ayo to be kept, they'd need to significantly outplay Okoro AND Patrick.

I don't really view Pat as a big minutes competitor for Ayo, mostly b/c I've never bought him at the 3. But sure, they could be to the extent they are both "wings."

I don't think Patrick Williams is likely to have any on-court value and I totally disregard him as mattering for purposes of this conversation. I'll be as happy as anyone if he proves me wrong this year, but I view him as Christiano Felicio 2.0.

[quote[
AK also drafted Patrick much higher and paid him pretty big for 5 years, and just traded for Okoro, so I don't think Ayo is any more favored than them.[/quote]

I don't know what "favored" means in this context. Yes, AK drafted and paid Patrick. I do not know whether they are trying to resurrect him at this point or just understand they made a huge mistake and aren't going to go out of their way to pump him up.

I don't care too much about "just traded for Okoro" given Okoro's modest salary, but I do view him as more of a direct competitor for a role with Ayo.

[Infinity2152]

Let's get back to the fact that we're likely adding 6-9 players next summer. Most of those will be role players. People are saying they don't want to pay for a role player, we are most certainly adding multiple role players next summer. It's better for us if Ayo doesn't get a ton of minutes and signs an extension. Based off last year's numbers, the amount would likely be far less, and he's a value deal next summer. It's not likely you're getting all better deals in free agency if a lot of teams have cap space and we will sign multiple players in that price range or more, even if we do star chase.
Will we be adding 6-9 players better than Ayo on better contracts?

Don't think we're signing a star and vet min contracts, for instance.

[jnrjr79]

I think you are right. Ayo isn't going to get enough minutes to make him want to stay, barring a consolidation trade at the deadline (although I could see him as one of the most likely pieces included in that kind of deal). The interesting dynamic will be, if he doesn't get many minutes this season, why would any team pony up more than $10M, possibly less, for him?

Based on limited comments from the presser and from Billy, post day 1 practice, I think that Okoro is pretty locked in as our 5th starter based on our defensive focus. And with Jones seemingly locked in as our back-up PG, and with him being, IMO, a better POA defender than Ayo, I see Huerter getting the nod at one back-up wing spot. So that leaves Ayo and Pat (and maybe Terry and/or Phillips) fighting for back-up minutes at the other wing spot (with Pat and Essengue battling for minutes at the back-up PF, maybe with Smith too). I could see Ayo winning that battle. Best case he sees 18MPG.

18 MPG seems pretty realistic to me. The other thing is inevitably there will be injuries and the rotation will change over the course of the year.

In the off-season all mpg projections kinda have to be done assuming everyone is healthy all year.

Even if we only play a 10 man rotation AND Ayo beats out Huerter, it's super easy to see Ayo only getting 18 mpg or less behind Okoro:

5: Vuc/Smith/Collins whatever mpg split
4: Matas 32, Essengue 16
3: Giddey 34, Patrick 14
2: Okoro 30, Ayo 18
1: Coby 34, Jones 14 mpg

I'm not convinced Okoro is getting 30 MPG and I"m sure as hell not convinced Patrick is getting 14. If he does get 14, I'll be very surprised if he gets it at the 3. To start the season, I also think it's super duper unlikely Essengue gets 16.

It's probably more like (to start the year):

1) Giddey 34, Jones 14
2) Coby 34, Ayo 14
3) Okoro 24, Huerter 14, Ayo 6
4) Buz 30, Pat 12, Essengue 6
5) Vooch/Collins/Smith in some frustrating combination.

Just a guess. There are a lot of moving parts here - it would seem to make sense to run Smith out as the backup 4 rather than Pat if Pat has not actually improved, Essengue may go up and down in the G League, Lachlan Olbrich may turn out to be the greatest Bull since MJ, etc.

But I think more or less b/c I don't buy Pat at the 3, I see a lot more wing minutes available to Ayo than you do.

Honestly the Bulls have so many rotation guys that could easily play themselves into bigger or lesser roles in camp through this season that I expect things to be pretty fluid. There isn't a clear hierarchy after their top few guys.

[League Circles]

18 MPG seems pretty realistic to me. The other thing is inevitably there will be injuries and the rotation will change over the course of the year.

In the off-season all mpg projections kinda have to be done assuming everyone is healthy all year.

Even if we only play a 10 man rotation AND Ayo beats out Huerter, it's super easy to see Ayo only getting 18 mpg or less behind Okoro:

5: Vuc/Smith/Collins whatever mpg split
4: Matas 32, Essengue 16
3: Giddey 34, Patrick 14
2: Okoro 30, Ayo 18
1: Coby 34, Jones 14 mpg

I'm not convinced Okoro is getting 30 MPG and I"m sure as hell not convinced Patrick is getting 14. If he does get 14, I'll be very surprised if he gets it at the 3. To start the season, I also think it's super duper unlikely Essengue gets 16.

It's probably more like (to start the year):

1) Giddey 34, Jones 14
2) Coby 34, Ayo 14
3) Okoro 24, Huerter 14, Ayo 6
4) Buz 30, Pat 12, Essengue 6
5) Vooch/Collins/Smith in some frustrating combination.

Just a guess. There are a lot of moving parts here - it would seem to make sense to run Smith out as the backup 4 rather than Pat if Pat has not actually improved, Essengue may go up and down in the G League, Lachlan Olbrich may turn out to be the greatest Bull since MJ, etc.

But I think more or less b/c I don't buy Pat at the 3, I see a lot more wing minutes available to Ayo than you do.

Honestly the Bulls have so many rotation guys that could easily play themselves into bigger or lesser roles in camp through this season that I expect things to be pretty fluid. There isn't a clear hierarchy after their top few guys.

I'm not convinced or even projecting that Okoro plays 30 mpg. I'm just saying it's easy to see, especially if he plays well obviously.

I virtually guarantee that Patrick will play significant minutes. Last year he averaged 25 and that was despite playing terribly, at least for the majority of the season until after he came back.

And frankly, I agree with it. Because of his contract, the upside of Patrick is much higher than the upside of these other guys. Because the downside of Patrick not playing is a guaranteed 4 year very bad contract. The downside of the others not playing is that they leave because they're expiring.

I actually think Patrick is best as a 3, off the bench, in more of a scoring role. I expect he'll be among the scoring leaders among the bench guys. I know, it may sound like a long shot. I just see him playing differently when he's off the bench and not struggling to get shots.

I also think Essengue will get more than the 6 mpg. If he's in the rotation, he'll play at least 10 mpg IMO.

[jnrjr79]

In the off-season all mpg projections kinda have to be done assuming everyone is healthy all year.

Even if we only play a 10 man rotation AND Ayo beats out Huerter, it's super easy to see Ayo only getting 18 mpg or less behind Okoro:

5: Vuc/Smith/Collins whatever mpg split
4: Matas 32, Essengue 16
3: Giddey 34, Patrick 14
2: Okoro 30, Ayo 18
1: Coby 34, Jones 14 mpg

I'm not convinced Okoro is getting 30 MPG and I"m sure as hell not convinced Patrick is getting 14. If he does get 14, I'll be very surprised if he gets it at the 3. To start the season, I also think it's super duper unlikely Essengue gets 16.

It's probably more like (to start the year):

1) Giddey 34, Jones 14
2) Coby 34, Ayo 14
3) Okoro 24, Huerter 14, Ayo 6
4) Buz 30, Pat 12, Essengue 6
5) Vooch/Collins/Smith in some frustrating combination.

Just a guess. There are a lot of moving parts here - it would seem to make sense to run Smith out as the backup 4 rather than Pat if Pat has not actually improved, Essengue may go up and down in the G League, Lachlan Olbrich may turn out to be the greatest Bull since MJ, etc.

But I think more or less b/c I don't buy Pat at the 3, I see a lot more wing minutes available to Ayo than you do.

Honestly the Bulls have so many rotation guys that could easily play themselves into bigger or lesser roles in camp through this season that I expect things to be pretty fluid. There isn't a clear hierarchy after their top few guys.

I'm not convinced or even projecting that Okoro plays 30 mpg. I'm just saying it's easy to see, especially if he plays well obviously.

I virtually guarantee that Patrick will play significant minutes. Last year he averaged 25 and that was despite playing terribly, at least for the majority of the season until after he came back.

And frankly, I agree with it. Because of his contract, the upside of Patrick is much higher than the upside of these other guys. Because the downside of Patrick not playing is a guaranteed 4 year very bad contract. The downside of the others not playing is that they leave because they're expiring.

I actually think Patrick is best as a 3, off the bench, in more of a scoring role. I expect he'll be among the scoring leaders among the bench guys. I know, it may sound like a long shot. I just see him playing differently when he's off the bench and not struggling to get shots.

I also think Essengue will get more than the 6 mpg. If he's in the rotation, he'll play at least 10 mpg IMO.

I think we’ve seen enough about how Billy on-boards rookies that it’s unlikely he’ll start out at 10 mpg. I could definitely see him getting there over the course of the season, but I could also see him being a spot minutes guy all year.

[sco]

In the off-season all mpg projections kinda have to be done assuming everyone is healthy all year.

Even if we only play a 10 man rotation AND Ayo beats out Huerter, it's super easy to see Ayo only getting 18 mpg or less behind Okoro:

5: Vuc/Smith/Collins whatever mpg split
4: Matas 32, Essengue 16
3: Giddey 34, Patrick 14
2: Okoro 30, Ayo 18
1: Coby 34, Jones 14 mpg

I'm not convinced Okoro is getting 30 MPG and I"m sure as hell not convinced Patrick is getting 14. If he does get 14, I'll be very surprised if he gets it at the 3. To start the season, I also think it's super duper unlikely Essengue gets 16.

It's probably more like (to start the year):

1) Giddey 34, Jones 14
2) Coby 34, Ayo 14
3) Okoro 24, Huerter 14, Ayo 6
4) Buz 30, Pat 12, Essengue 6
5) Vooch/Collins/Smith in some frustrating combination.

Just a guess. There are a lot of moving parts here - it would seem to make sense to run Smith out as the backup 4 rather than Pat if Pat has not actually improved, Essengue may go up and down in the G League, Lachlan Olbrich may turn out to be the greatest Bull since MJ, etc.

But I think more or less b/c I don't buy Pat at the 3, I see a lot more wing minutes available to Ayo than you do.

Honestly the Bulls have so many rotation guys that could easily play themselves into bigger or lesser roles in camp through this season that I expect things to be pretty fluid. There isn't a clear hierarchy after their top few guys.

I'm not convinced or even projecting that Okoro plays 30 mpg. I'm just saying it's easy to see, especially if he plays well obviously.

I virtually guarantee that Patrick will play significant minutes. Last year he averaged 25 and that was despite playing terribly, at least for the majority of the season until after he came back.

And frankly, I agree with it. Because of his contract, the upside of Patrick is much higher than the upside of these other guys. Because the downside of Patrick not playing is a guaranteed 4 year very bad contract. The downside of the others not playing is that they leave because they're expiring.

I actually think Patrick is best as a 3, off the bench, in more of a scoring role. I expect he'll be among the scoring leaders among the bench guys. I know, it may sound like a long shot. I just see him playing differently when he's off the bench and not struggling to get shots.

I also think Essengue will get more than the 6 mpg. If he's in the rotation, he'll play at least 10 mpg IMO.

I'm with you on Okoro.

I think the Bulls aren't committing anything to Pat that he doesn't earn this year. IIRC, AK said during the end-of-season presser that they're done giving him entitlement minutes and that he was given a list of things he needs to get better at. I hope he took it to heart. Last offseason he couldn't do much (foot), and like Ayo, I would be thrilled if their regressions last year were injury related and that they both have bounce-back years.

I think the guy who I think will scoop up more minutes from Ayo and others is Jones. He's a guy who can both run the point when Giddey is out, but his POA defense and ability to score in transition was impressive too, and because of that, he may get some additional minutes alongside Giddey. Also, he's under contract going forward unlike Ayo and others.

[League Circles]

I'm not convinced Okoro is getting 30 MPG and I"m sure as hell not convinced Patrick is getting 14. If he does get 14, I'll be very surprised if he gets it at the 3. To start the season, I also think it's super duper unlikely Essengue gets 16.

It's probably more like (to start the year):

1) Giddey 34, Jones 14
2) Coby 34, Ayo 14
3) Okoro 24, Huerter 14, Ayo 6
4) Buz 30, Pat 12, Essengue 6
5) Vooch/Collins/Smith in some frustrating combination.

Just a guess. There are a lot of moving parts here - it would seem to make sense to run Smith out as the backup 4 rather than Pat if Pat has not actually improved, Essengue may go up and down in the G League, Lachlan Olbrich may turn out to be the greatest Bull since MJ, etc.

But I think more or less b/c I don't buy Pat at the 3, I see a lot more wing minutes available to Ayo than you do.

Honestly the Bulls have so many rotation guys that could easily play themselves into bigger or lesser roles in camp through this season that I expect things to be pretty fluid. There isn't a clear hierarchy after their top few guys.

I'm not convinced or even projecting that Okoro plays 30 mpg. I'm just saying it's easy to see, especially if he plays well obviously.

I virtually guarantee that Patrick will play significant minutes. Last year he averaged 25 and that was despite playing terribly, at least for the majority of the season until after he came back.

And frankly, I agree with it. Because of his contract, the upside of Patrick is much higher than the upside of these other guys. Because the downside of Patrick not playing is a guaranteed 4 year very bad contract. The downside of the others not playing is that they leave because they're expiring.

I actually think Patrick is best as a 3, off the bench, in more of a scoring role. I expect he'll be among the scoring leaders among the bench guys. I know, it may sound like a long shot. I just see him playing differently when he's off the bench and not struggling to get shots.

I also think Essengue will get more than the 6 mpg. If he's in the rotation, he'll play at least 10 mpg IMO.

I'm with you on Okoro.

I think the Bulls aren't committing anything to Pat that he doesn't earn this year. IIRC, AK said during the end-of-season presser that they're done giving him entitlement minutes and that he was given a list of things he needs to get better at. I hope he took it to heart. Last offseason he couldn't do much (foot), and like Ayo, I would be thrilled if their regressions last year were injury related and that they both have bounce-back years.

I think the guy who I think will scoop up more minutes from Ayo and others is Jones. He's a guy who can both run the point when Giddey is out, but his POA defense and ability to score in transition was impressive too, and because of that, he may get some additional minutes alongside Giddey. Also, he's under contract going forward unlike Ayo and others.

I do think if Patrick plays like he did last year, he'll go from playing 15-20 mpg to possibly being benched outright. I just think that's unlikely. He was really a lot better coming off the bench after coming back from injury. And he looked a lot more comfortable and polished than he had earlier in the season and during much of his first few years.

But Patrick obviously, and appropriately IMO, will get the benefit of the doubt in any kind of close call between him and these other guys. It's not a precise thing though cause Patrick is competing with Essengue for backup 4 minutes, and with Huerter for backup 3 minutes, who is also then competing with Ayo and Okoro for minutes at the 2. If Patrick is able to guard opposing 2s the way Okoro and Ayo primary do, it gives him more of a long term chance, cause it would allow Billy to play Coby Giddey Patrick Matas Center. I think the Bulls see Okoro as more likely to be what they want out of the role, but Patrick has a chance, and the Bulls are heavily incentivized to find out, if he can still be a significant rotation player going forward.

[League Circles]

Let's get back to the fact that we're likely adding 6-9 players next summer. Most of those will be role players. People are saying they don't want to pay for a role player, we are most certainly adding multiple role players next summer. It's better for us if Ayo doesn't get a ton of minutes and signs an extension. Based off last year's numbers, the amount would likely be far less, and he's a value deal next summer. It's not likely you're getting all better deals in free agency if a lot of teams have cap space and we will sign multiple players in that price range or more, even if we do star chase.
Will we be adding 6-9 players better than Ayo on better contracts?

Don't think we're signing a star and vet min contracts, for instance.

I think you have to go into FA looking to use all your cap space in as few players as possible. Obviously you have to be ready to pivot quick if the right star can't be obtained (just as likely via lopsided trade for a star into our cap space), but you have to be aggressive and try to get a difference maker or three. Role players are more for exceptions and the next draft picks.

[MikeDC]

To me, unless Ayo is looking like "the answer" as a long term 5th starter, I wouldn't really re-sign him to any long term deal. I don't want to spend cap space on bench role players for the foreseeable future. Especially with Patrick and Jones already in that space.

I see all 4 of Okoro, Ayo, Patrick and Huerter as big question marks roughly competing for the same role (5th starter wing defender). If I were to guess right now, I'd give the edge to Okoro, then probably Ayo and Patrick roughly equal, then Huerter as a pretty distant 4th cause I can't imagine him working defensively with Giddey and Coby.

I like Ayo a lot but also think he's very replaceable and a luxury we can't afford due to opportunity cost.

I don't really care whether Huerter is "competing" for a role this year, since he'll be gone next year or earlier. To me, evaluating what to do with Ayo depends only on other guys 1) matter, and 2) will be around long-term. That's Giddey, Essengue, and Matas (and maybe Coby, if they re-sign him). Nobody else really matters. If, for instance, Ayo overlaps with Tre Jones for the first year of Ayo's new deal, who cares? This is small potatoes stuff. And all the guys expiring this year could not be more meaningless - they won't be around for Ayo's new deal. Those guy's could lessen Ayo's role this year by virtue of their mere presence, but that could have a sneaky benefit if it lowers the price to re-sign him.

In any event, I'm not fired up one way or the other about Ayo. My point was just that the Bulls will be able to see how he plays this year before making a decision on what to do with him. I'd trade darn near anything other than Giddey, Essengue, and Matas right now (and even those guys aren't safe in a "Giannis just became available" scenario).

I also don't care about this year. I just don't understand what makes expiring Ayo and different than the other guys like Huerter.

When I talk about role competition involving Ayo, I'm talking long term.

Well, Huerter is different because he can shoot and seems like a competent offensive player who isn’t obvious trash on defense. Bulls fans hate offense and think that guys who suck at offense must be good defenders. And they think if a guy can play offense he must be bad at defense.

Huerter is, by the numbers, competent on both sides of the ball. Ayo is below average on both sides but he went to Illinois and was drafted by the team, so he must be good.

He’s fills the team mascot role really well.

[League Circles]

I don't really care whether Huerter is "competing" for a role this year, since he'll be gone next year or earlier. To me, evaluating what to do with Ayo depends only on other guys 1) matter, and 2) will be around long-term. That's Giddey, Essengue, and Matas (and maybe Coby, if they re-sign him). Nobody else really matters. If, for instance, Ayo overlaps with Tre Jones for the first year of Ayo's new deal, who cares? This is small potatoes stuff. And all the guys expiring this year could not be more meaningless - they won't be around for Ayo's new deal. Those guy's could lessen Ayo's role this year by virtue of their mere presence, but that could have a sneaky benefit if it lowers the price to re-sign him.

In any event, I'm not fired up one way or the other about Ayo. My point was just that the Bulls will be able to see how he plays this year before making a decision on what to do with him. I'd trade darn near anything other than Giddey, Essengue, and Matas right now (and even those guys aren't safe in a "Giannis just became available" scenario).

I also don't care about this year. I just don't understand what makes expiring Ayo and different than the other guys like Huerter.

When I talk about role competition involving Ayo, I'm talking long term.

Well, Huerter is different because he can shoot and seems like a competent offensive player who isn’t obvious trash on defense. Bulls fans hate offense and think that guys who suck at offense must be good defenders. And they think if a guy can play offense he must be bad at defense.

Huerter is, by the numbers, competent on both sides of the ball. Ayo is below average on both sides but he went to Illinois and was drafted by the team, so he must be good.

He’s fills the team mascot role really well.

I think they're pretty equal players. Huerter is a bit better offensively and Ayo defensively IMO, but I think both are competent on both sides of the ball. Not sure either is genuinely good on either side of the ball either.

The reason I'm giving the edge to Patrick, Okoro and Ayo over Huerter is really as simple as this:

1. He's the oldest
2. He expires after this season (like Ayo), so we'll have less time to evaluate him
3. With Coby and Giddey, we need a strong defender to flank them more than we need a shooter (though obviously both skills in one guy would be nice) IMO, and Huerter, while competent on D, isn't a strong defender, and is the least if these 4 guys

[kodo]

Huerter is important for the immediate season because the Bulls identity is to run fast and get a lot of shots up which are mostly 3s.
We were 3rd in the league in 3PA, but only 20th in 2PA. We are heavily skewed towards shooting 3s even by today's standards.

Huerter is the only true shooter on the team outside of our two main guards Giddey & Coby. He led the team post-trade in 3PM and 3PA and did it on excellent efficiency at 40% 3P. Without Huerter, the 2nd highest 3P producer after White is Giddey.

I still expect him to start come tip-off on opening night.