Preseason poll with expectations for the Clippers

[Caneman786]

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[Caneman786]

Context from last season. Copied from the Player Comparison Board Thread: The Clippers Thread: Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac, James Harden - 2025-26 Season

UNDERSTANDING THE CLIPPERS REGULAR SEASON
A TALE OF THREE SEASONS

Last season, the Clippers played three seasons. One season with no Kawhi, one season with Kawhi working his way up to speed, and one season with Kawhi fully healthy

Kawhi's first game back was on January 2, 2025. And Kawhi was taken off his minutes restriction on February 28, 2025. So I'll use those as the markings.

Let's see what changed throughout the year.

THE FIRST SEASON: OCT. 23, 2024 to JAN. 01, 2025

The Clippers played 33 games in this span.

19 wins, 14 losses (47-win pace)

Offensive Rating 110.0 (23rd in the league)
Defensive Rating 108.4 (5th in the league)

Net Rating +1.6 (13th in the league)

Lineup:

Starters:
Point Guard: James Harden
Shooting Guard: Terance Mann for the first 11 games, then Kris Dunn for the next 22 games
Small Forward: Norman Powell
Power Forward: Derrick Jones Jr.
Center: Ivica Zubac

Bench:
Guard: Kevin Porter Jr.
Guard: Terance Mann / Kris Dunn
Forward: Amir Coffey
Power Forward / Center: Nicolas Batum

Third string: Forward Jordan Miller, Center Mo Bamba, Center Kai Jones, Guard Bones Hyland etc.

THE SECOND SEASON: JAN. 02, 2025 to FEB. 27, 2025

The Clippers played 25 games in this span.

13 wins, 12 losses (43-win pace)

Offensive Rating 113.3 (17th in the league)
Defensive Rating 109.8 (3rd in the league)

Net Rating +3.6 (9th in the league)

Lineup:

Starters:
Point Guard: James Harden
Shooting Guard: Kris Dunn
Small Forward: Norman Powell, Derrick Jones Jr. when Powell was injured
Power Forward: Kawhi Leonard, Amir Coffey when Leonard was out
Center: Ivica Zubac

Bench:
Guard: Kevin Porter Jr., then Ben Simmons
Guard: Terance Mann, then Bogdan Bogdanovic
Forward: Amir Coffey when starters not injured
Forward: Derrick Jones Jr. when starters not injured
Power Forward / Center: Nicolas Batum

Third string: Forward Jordan Miller, Center Mo Bamba, Forward Kobe Brown, Guard Bones Hyland etc.

Kawhi Leonard overview

Statline per 75 possessions: 22.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.9 turnovers, 1.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, 54.5% True Shooting

+10.5 net rating per 100 possessions with Kawhi Leonard on the court. -0.6 net rating with him off the court.
+11.0 on-off

Some of the net rating dip with Kawhi off the court has to do with a Norman Powell injury that took him out for parts of the period.

THE THIRD SEASON: FEB 28, 2025 to APR. 13, 2025

The Clippers played 24 games in this span.

18 wins, 6 losses (62-win pace)

Offensive Rating 121.3 (4th in the league)
Defensive Rating 110.2 (5th in the league)

Net Rating +11.1 (2nd in the league)

Lineup:

Starters:
Point Guard: James Harden
Shooting Guard: Kris Dunn
Small Forward: Norman Powell, Derrick Jones Jr. when Powell was injured
Power Forward: Kawhi Leonard, Nicolas Batum when Leonard was out
Center: Ivica Zubac

Bench:
Guard: Bogdan Bogdanovic
Guard: Ben Simmons
Forward: Amir Coffey
Forward: Derrick Jones Jr. when starters not injured
Power Forward: Nicolas Batum when starters not injured
Center: Drew Eubanks

Third string: Forward Jordan Miller, Guard Patty Mills, Forward Kobe Brown, Guard Cam Christie etc.

Kawhi Leonard's overview

Statline per 75 possessions: 26.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.9 turnovers, 2.0 steals, 0.5 blocks, 61.6% True Shooting

+13.6 net rating per 100 possessions with Kawhi Leonard on the court. +7.0 net rating with him off the court.
+6.6 on-off

This team was maxing out, with Kawhi having fully shaken the rust off (evident by the true shooting and turnover numbers, as well as the increased volume). Kawhi had successfully supercharged the Clippers offense, while the defense, led by Ivica Zubac, had been excellent the whole season.

Norman Powell rejoined the team part of the way through this season.

Overall, not only was the whole team revamped throughout the season, upgrading at almost every position, we started to see what this Clippers team could be.

Summary of changes throughout the Clippers season:

Starting shooting guard: Terance Mann -> Kris Dunn
Starting power forward: Derrick Jones Jr. -> Kawhi Leonard

Bogdan Bogdanovic and Ben Simmons were added midway through the season for real bench guard depth.

THE PLAYOFFS: FIRST ROUND LOSS TO THE DENVER NUGGETS

They went on to play the Nuggets, who had the best player in the world, in the first round and lost in a grueling first-round series that went to 7 games, where the Clippers outscored the Nuggets by an average of +0.6 points per game and had an incredible game-winning dunk by Aaron Gordon in game 4. Russell Westbrook shot 41.9% from 3 in that series on 4.4 attempts per game.

That Nuggets team went on to lose in 7 games to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who beat them by +9.1 points per game. However, Thunder players called the series the hardest one they had, with the team having gone down 2-1.

[Caneman786]

THE OFFSEASON

The Clippers have made many changes that will bolster them further from the +11.1 net rating they had in the last part of the regular season.

Added a Power Forward -> John Collins, who had an EPM of +0.9 (a solid starter), and is someone who will be able to fight with the Aaron Gordons of the world.

Moved Kawhi Leonard from the Power Forward position to the Small Forward position, as Norman Powell went to the Miami Heat. This will unlock Kawhi more defensively and turns the team from somewhat undersized to a big team all the way through.

Moved Kris Dunn to the bench for Bradley Beal. Essentially, turning Norman Powell into Bradley Beal. This is a lateral to slight negative move, but the bonus of not having a 6' 3" guard play the 3rd position small forward will outweigh that.

Added a real backup center: Brook Lopez (EPM of +0.7), who started 80 games last season for the Milwaukee Bucks, a legitimate playoffs team. This is an upgrade compared to picking a poison between the undersized Nicolas Batum and third-string players like Drew Eubanks and Mo Bamba
Backup point guard Chris Paul (EPM of +0.7) who started 82 games last season for the San Antonio Spurs, where he had a positive plus minus throughout the season.

Amir Coffey, who played the 6th most minutes of the team last season, has left for the Milwaukee Bucks. Last season he had an on-court net rating of -7.3 and an on-off of -12.1. His EPM was -2.5. This season he wouldn't get minutes on the team.

That's because this Clippers team is deep. Because of that, I have them with a potential +10 net rating for the season (this might be too low), and winning 60–65 games. Kawhi Leonard unlocks the monster defense of the team offensively. And he appears to be fully back to form, having had his first healthy offseason in many years:

Read on Twitter

When prime Kawhi back, this team can hang with the best teams in the league: The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets.

Looking forward to the season.

[Ballings7]

I projected 44-48 wins last early Fall, and Ty Lue and I shocked the world : )

For this season, I'll say 54 wins (selected 50-54 games option).. the combination of the second half of last season build + the team's adds in the summer, will retain that form and foundation from last season, and make them better end-to-end as a whole than last season.. having less issue periods naturally.

But probably not by a lot, to be safe there -- mainly due to the rest of the West teams surrounding them in the mid and top of the seeding. I have decent confidence this team can be an upper-50 win team, though (say 56-58), and won't be that surprised if they are given their depth, improved shooting, still solid talent level from the top 5-7 guys, and legit defensive foundation.

Head: over 50 wins, low 50 games. 54.

Heart: over 50 wins, high 50 games. 58.