Tre Johnson: welcome to the DMV

[payitforward]

Kuz and Kispert were bad signings because of where the cap situation was for other teams. There was a high probability that with open cap space we could have done better deals at the last trade deadline. It also shows a trend for thinking some players aren't as good as this FO thinks (Poole, Kuz, Kispert). Was it a disaster, no. Was it optimal, no. That is the problem when you are bad and playing n-game theory.

I see no evidence that Will had a high opinion of Kuz and/or Kispert (or of Poole for that matter) & "we could have done better at the deadline" is empty -- "better" by signing whom exactly? What would have been "optimal?" & what makes you think it was possible?

And yes, the "huge tank" is a tactic that supports their strategy....

Incomprehensible.... You really preferred the "mid-rebuild?"

I think their strategy is a bit off in this regards ...given how the draft now works and the current CBO.

"I think" reports a process between your ears. It's not a rational argument for or against anything. As I mentioned in a previous post, "luck" is not a strategy.

I'd say there was no alternative whatever to trading Brad for as much future draft capital as possible & starting over (i.e. "deep tank"). None whatever. & I've read nothing compelling a change in that view.

BTW, best thing my managing professor could do was get me out in the free market. I did much, much better there...

You're a smart, interesting guy -- I have no doubt that you've been successful in the world & that you'll continue to be. OTOH, "much, much better" than... what?

[dckingsfan]

Kuz and Kispert were bad signings because of where the cap situation was for other teams. There was a high probability that with open cap space we could have done better deals at the last trade deadline. It also shows a trend for thinking some players aren't as good as this FO thinks (Poole, Kuz, Kispert). Was it a disaster, no. Was it optimal, no. That is the problem when you are bad and playing n-game theory.

I see no evidence that Will had a high opinion of Kuz and/or Kispert (or of Poole for that matter) & "we could have done better at the deadline" is empty -- "better" by signing whom exactly? What would have been "optimal?" & what makes you think it was possible?

And yes, the "huge tank" is a tactic that supports their strategy....

Incomprehensible.... You really preferred the "mid-rebuild?"

I think their strategy is a bit off in this regards ...given how the draft now works and the current CBO.

"I think" reports a process between your ears. It's not a rational argument for or against anything. As I mentioned in a previous post, "luck" is not a strategy.

I'd say there was no alternative whatever to trading Brad for as much future draft capital as possible & starting over (i.e. "deep tank"). None whatever. & I've read nothing compelling a change in that view.

BTW, best thing my managing professor could do was get me out in the free market. I did much, much better there...

You're a smart, interesting guy -- I have no doubt that you've been successful in the world & that you'll continue to be. OTOH, "much, much better" than... what?

If you give a player a contract, especially like one that Kuz or Kispert received (or trading for Poole) - well, you aren't down on them. And I know I don't need to connect the numbers for you... last year during the "panic" when folks wanted to get rid of players we could have picked up assets if we were well under the cap (yes, this is logical - I don't feel I should have to rebut this given the current CBO). As a note: if you always do the "prove there was a better option" then that cuts off all logical debate. It is what it is shouldn't be an analysis.

Mid-rebuild. Hmmm. Not my point. Who benefitted most in this last draft? I think it was San Antonio and Dallas, two teams that didn't go full tank. Who benefitted the least? I think it was Utah, Washington and Brooklyn. My point is you don't want to go continual deep tank.

And one should not separate strategy and tactics from luck when we are dependent on luck in the draft. Those can't be separated (well, they can but...)

And in business vs. academia - I have been most happy when creating businesses and free from day-to-day structure.

[dobrojim]

Who benefited? Well the teams that bumped up benefited.

I've long been dismissive of those who claimed the fix
was in. I'm now less inclined to believe that it couldn't
possibly be fixed. The league as a whole is designed to
make revenue. The question needs to be asked whether
they (the NBA) believe there is more or less money to
be made by designed strategic intervention. Are woeful
franchises stuck where they are?

[doclinkin]

Mid-rebuild. Hmmm. Not my point. Who benefitted most in this last draft? I think it was San Antonio and Dallas, two teams that didn't go full tank.

The Spurs absolutely went full tank. Traded away their best players to bottom out until they got a true franchise player. They lucked out and got him on the first try. They were still bad enough that they landed Castle in the next draft. And climbed this draft ladder as well.

Difference is they are charmed and blessed by the Gods Of Basketball. Three times winning the top pick in a year with a franchise player. Then adding the 2nd best prospect this year? An embarrassment of luck.

Dallas. Dallas got gifted the top pick with impossibly tiny odds. You can’t bank on luck. If you’re playing the lottery game you commit to it. Otherwise the numbers are absolutely not in your favor. We can fuss that we didn’t get the top pick. That we fell as low as we could go. But in so doing we still got a coveted player. If we played better and had worse lotto position we could have fallen further and taken another project player. Demin or Essengue. And if we fell even further we’d lose our pick.

Losing a pick is not a thing a rebuilding team can risk. Not for modest improvement. The only responsible thing to do at that point is everything you can to keep the pick. Otherwise you’re postponing the rebuild yet another year and still digging out from the last regime.

[payitforward]

...business vs. academia - I have been most happy when creating businesses and free from day-to-day structure.

I did a lot of that myself. Some people just operate best as free agents....

[payitforward]

Mid-rebuild. Hmmm. Not my point. Who benefitted most in this last draft? I think it was San Antonio and Dallas, two teams that didn't go full tank.

The Spurs absolutely went full tank. Traded away their best players to bottom out until they got a true franchise player. They lucked out and git him on the first try. They were still bad enough that they landed Castle in the next draft. And climbed this draft ladder as well.

Difference is they are charmed and blessed by the Gods Of Basketball. Three times winning the top pick in a year with a franchise player. Then adding the 2nd best prospect this year? An embarrassment of luck.

Dallas. Dallas got gifted the top pick with impossibly tiny odds. You can’t bank on luck. If you’re playing the lottery game you commit to it. Otherwise the numbers are absolutely not in your favor. We can fuss that we didn’t get the top pick. That we fell as low as we could go. But in so doing we still got a coveted player. If we played better and had worse lotto position we could have fallen further and taken another project player. Demin or Essengue. And if we fell even further we’d lose our pick.

Losing a pick is not a thing a rebuilding team can risk. Not for modest improvement. The only responsible thing to do at that point is everything you can to keep the pick. Otherwise you’re postponing the rebuild yet another year and still digging out from the last regime.

Personally, tho this is off topic, I find it hard to view Cooper Flagg as anything but part of the Luka to the Lakers deal. As to Wemby, did anyone really think he was going anywhere else?

[dckingsfan]

Mid-rebuild. Hmmm. Not my point. Who benefitted most in this last draft? I think it was San Antonio and Dallas, two teams that didn't go full tank.

The Spurs absolutely went full tank. Traded away their best players to bottom out until they got a true franchise player. They lucked out and git him on the first try. They were still bad enough that they landed Castle in the next draft. And climbed this draft ladder as well.

Difference is they are charmed and blessed by the Gods Of Basketball. Three times winning the top pick in a year with a franchise player. Then adding the 2nd best prospect this year? An embarrassment of luck.

Dallas. Dallas got gifted the top pick with impossibly tiny odds. You can’t bank on luck. If you’re playing the lottery game you commit to it. Otherwise the numbers are absolutely not in your favor. We can fuss that we didn’t get the top pick. That we fell as low as we could go. But in so doing we still got a coveted player. If we played better and had worse lotto position we could have fallen further and taken another project player. Demin or Essengue. And if we fell even further we’d lose our pick.

Losing a pick is not a thing a rebuilding team can risk. Not for modest improvement. The only responsible thing to do at that point is everything you can to keep the pick. Otherwise you’re postponing the rebuild yet another year and still digging out from the last regime.

Maybe a better way to look at this is how many 1 or 2 seeds win the lottery? And then once you win the lottery if you are really horrible, does it make a difference? I think you are better off being a mid-lottery team and hope for some good luck - the odds aren't all that different.

[doclinkin]

I think you are better off being a mid-lottery team and hope for some good luck - the odds aren't all that different.

Except if we are a mid lottery team this year then New York has our pick. Then the odds of us winning are zero percent.

Teams slip a spot or two every year. As often as not the Wizards are the team that skids down a couple. That’s not a thing we need to risk. If we were going to keep our pick the commitment to super young developmental players had to be early and consistent. Going full send on a kindergarten team this year is all about that. Because otherwise you’re wasting TWO assets: our own pick and the deviously clever pick swap we finagled in the Phoenix trade.

I’ve been all in on those pick swaps since they were made public. They jiu jitsu the mathematics so we have a greater likelihood of climbing into a top spot than Every other team. All we have to do is keep our pick. Then it’s looking like our odds plus PHX odds float us a top 3 pick 7 times out of 10.

But if not then we lose out on a year when there may be as many as 3 franchise players.

Now consider if we chose to build quick. Not commit hard to the tank. Build around Deni, complement him with quality players. Managed a mid lotto team the Bilal year. Added improvement each year after that. No tanking. No youth movement.

Maybe we still had a top 10 pick last year. But got better. How tough would it be now in year 3 to keep that pick? How would that feel if we didn’t. Say Phoenix catches the top pick and New York finds a steal with the #9 guy.

That’s a front office that probably is looking for another job.

After this year though it’s the other way around. We can try to win all we want and still add talent. We can make trades or bid on Jalen Duren / Tari Eason/ Dyson Daniels with that $100m in cap space. We have young assets to trade. All to hopefully build around a franchise player we steal with the PHX pick or a lucky bounce of our own.

But then with the various extra picks and swaps they’ve added we might still be picking in the lotto while the team is already winning.

Not me. I’m comfortable taking a few years of struggle rather than the misery of watching a good player shift to both New York AND Phoenix, while we have to listen to fans gripe about both players for the length of their career.

Tank. Tank on. Tank hard. Tank with an overload of youth. With too many experimental line ups. With no real interior defenders. Tank in every way you can that lets the players fight hard but still lose. Until we are finally done with the legacy of the past regime. Then we can judge the new guys in their own merits of trying to build a winner. We’re not there yet.

[dobrojim]

Watch on YouTube

WNBA has some bad noise happening too

Really raises my suspicions about being a fan.

[doclinkin]

2023 Bilal, Cam, Vuk
2024 Alex, Bub, Kyshawn, AJJ, Dillon Jones
2025 Tre, Riley, Watkins, Jonathan Pierre.

With that many draftees from the last 3 years you gotta figure somebody breaks out from the pack to outperform the guys picked ahead of them. If you get 3 or more hits from the group you’re doing better than most GMs.

I get the feeling Tre Johnson will be that guy this year. The player that other teams kick themselves over letting him slip. We got him by falling back as far as we could. If so then the tank worked. Fell as far back as possible and still got the purported best shooter in the draft. You like hearing reports of guys like Middleton who raises his eyebrows talking about him saying “he’s a shooter”. Liking his confidence and range.

[nate33]

I think you are better off being a mid-lottery team and hope for some good luck - the odds aren't all that different.

Except if we are a mid lottery team this year then New York has our pick. Then the odds of us winning are zero percent.

Teams slip a spot or two every year. As often as not the Wizards are the team that skids down a couple. That’s not a thing we need to risk. If we were going to keep our pick the commitment to super young developmental players had to be early and consistent. Going full send on a kindergarten team this year is all about that. Because otherwise you’re wasting TWO assets: our own pick and the deviously clever pick swap we finagled in the Phoenix trade.

I’ve been all in on those pick swaps since they were made public. They jiu jitsu the mathematics so we have a greater likelihood of climbing into a top spot than Every other team. All we have to do is keep our pick. Then it’s looking like our odds plus PHX odds float us a top 3 pick 7 times out of 10.

But if not then we lose out on a year when there may be as many as 3 franchise players.

Now consider if we chose to build quick. Not commit hard to the tank. Build around Deni, complement him with quality players. Managed a mid lotto team the Bilal year. Added improvement each year after that. No tanking. No youth movement.

Maybe we still had a top 10 pick last year. But got better. How tough would it be now in year 3 to keep that pick? How would that feel if we didn’t. Say Phoenix catches the top pick and New York finds a steal with the #9 guy.

That’s a front office that probably is looking for another job.

After this year though it’s the other way around. We can try to win all we want and still add talent. We can make trades or bid on Jalen Duren / Tari Eason/ Dyson Daniels with that $100m in cap space. We have young assets to trade. All to hopefully build around a franchise player we steal with the PHX pick or a lucky bounce of our own.

But then with the various extra picks and swaps they’ve added we might still be picking in the lotto while the team is already winning.

Not me. I’m comfortable taking a few years of struggle rather than the misery of watching a good player shift to both New York AND Phoenix, while we have to listen to fans gripe about both players for the length of their career.

Tank. Tank on. Tank hard. Tank with an overload of youth. With too many experimental line ups. With no real interior defenders. Tank in every way you can that lets the players fight hard but still lose. Until we are finally done with the legacy of the past regime. Then we can judge the new guys in their own merits of trying to build a winner. We’re not there yet.

We need to tank, but I'm not too worried about tanking hard. I'm mostly just focused on keeping that Phoenix swap. We can't fall to 9th in the draft, which means we need to finish among the bottom 6 teams. I won't be all that upset if we finish 5th or 6th worst instead of in the bottom 3 though.

Las Vegas odds for the bottom 7 teams.

Code: Select all

Team   Win Total
Utah Jazz              18.5
Brooklyn Nets          20.5
Washington Wizards     21.5
Charlotte Hornets      27.5
New Orleans Pelicans   30.5
Phoenix Suns           31.5
Chicago Bulls          32.5

If those Vegas odds turn out to be fairly accurate for the other bottom-feeders, I wouldn't mind at all finishing with 28 or so wins. It would be an encouraging 10-game jump from our 2024-25 season, while still keeping us firmly in the top of the lottery. And with the Phoenix swap, we would still have the best lottery odds among all the teams.

[DCZards]

2023 Bilal, Cam, Vuk
2024 Alex, Bub, Kyshawn, AJJ, Dillon Jones
2025 Tre, Riley, Watkins, Jonathan Pierre.

With that many draftees from the last 3 years you gotta figure somebody breaks out from the pack to outperform the guys picked ahead of them. If you get 3 or more hits from the group you’re doing better than most GMs.

I get the feeling Tre Johnson will be that guy this year. The player that other teams kick themselves over letting him slip. We got him by falling back as far as we could. If so then the tank worked. Fell as far back as possible and still got the purported best shooter in the draft. You like hearing reports of guys like Middleton who raises his eyebrows talking about him saying “he’s a shooter”. Liking his confidence and range.

The player that’s probably a lock to outperform many of the guys picked ahead of him is Kyshawn. He’s a 24th pick who would likely be a late lotto pick in a redraft.

Not an all-star but a smart, versatile, toolsy kid on both ends of the court…a taller Derrick White.

[9 and 20]

Mid-rebuild. Hmmm. Not my point. Who benefitted most in this last draft? I think it was San Antonio and Dallas, two teams that didn't go full tank.

The Spurs absolutely went full tank. Traded away their best players to bottom out until they got a true franchise player. They lucked out and got him on the first try. They were still bad enough that they landed Castle in the next draft. And climbed this draft ladder as well.

Difference is they are charmed and blessed by the Gods Of Basketball. Three times winning the top pick in a year with a franchise player. Then adding the 2nd best prospect this year? An embarrassment of luck.

Dallas. Dallas got gifted the top pick with impossibly tiny odds. You can’t bank on luck. If you’re playing the lottery game you commit to it. Otherwise the numbers are absolutely not in your favor. We can fuss that we didn’t get the top pick. That we fell as low as we could go. But in so doing we still got a coveted player. If we played better and had worse lotto position we could have fallen further and taken another project player. Demin or Essengue. And if we fell even further we’d lose our pick.

Losing a pick is not a thing a rebuilding team can risk. Not for modest improvement. The only responsible thing to do at that point is everything you can to keep the pick. Otherwise you’re postponing the rebuild yet another year and still digging out from the last regime.

I bet Dallas got the number one pick because the NBA didn't want some crazy fan to go after Nico Harrison after the Luka trade. Serious/not serious with the way violence has crept more and more into public life. If the Mavs were trash and Anthony Davis was hurt all year, without Cooper Flagg I think it could have gotten ugly in Dallas.

Overall, agree that we need to tank hard this year. No more last second game winners from Bub. I want to see Vukcevic at point guard to close out close games. Bring back Omoruyi after the all star break.

[dobrojim]

Watch on YouTube

WNBA has some bad noise happening too

Really raises my suspicions about being a fan.

My daughter who follows the W closely says this is
pure clickbait. Sorry for posting without some verification.

[dckingsfan]

Las Vegas odds for the bottom 7 teams.

Code: Select all

Team   Win Total
Utah Jazz              18.5
Brooklyn Nets          20.5
Washington Wizards     21.5
Charlotte Hornets      27.5
New Orleans Pelicans   30.5
Phoenix Suns           31.5
Chicago Bulls          32.5

If those Vegas odds turn out to be fairly accurate for the other bottom-feeders, I wouldn't mind at all finishing with 28 or so wins. It would be an encouraging 10-game jump from our 2024-25 season, while still keeping us firmly in the top of the lottery. And with the Phoenix swap, we would still have the best lottery odds among all the teams.

Exactly. You are making progress and not ingraining losing into your culture. You are actively working on creating a better team year-over-year and your odds are really close for the bottom 7 or 8 teams.

Code: Select all

Top 4   #1 Ovr
52.10%   14.00%
52.10%   14.00%
52.10%   14.00%
48.10%   12.50%
42.10%   10.50%
37.20%    9.00%
32.00%    7.50%
26.30%    6.00%
20.30%    4.50%
13.90%    3.00%
 9.40%    2.00%
 7.10%    1.50%
 4.80%    1.00%
 2.40%    0.50%

[AFM]

Watch on YouTube

Fact check: TRUE!!!!!

[doclinkin]

Las Vegas odds for the bottom 7 teams.

Code: Select all

Team   Win Total
Utah Jazz              18.5
Brooklyn Nets          20.5
Washington Wizards     21.5
Charlotte Hornets      27.5
New Orleans Pelicans   30.5
Phoenix Suns           31.5
Chicago Bulls          32.5

If those Vegas odds turn out to be fairly accurate for the other bottom-feeders, I wouldn't mind at all finishing with 28 or so wins. It would be an encouraging 10-game jump from our 2024-25 season, while still keeping us firmly in the top of the lottery. And with the Phoenix swap, we would still have the best lottery odds among all the teams.

Exactly. You are making progress and not ingraining losing into your culture. You are actively working on creating a better team year-over-year and your odds are really close for the bottom 7 or 8 teams.

A 10 game leap with young talent and still winning the lotto would mean their heavy commitment to early tanking is working. They got good talent, but are taking long enough to develop it that they don’t lose their pick.

Tough to argue with that if it happens. That would make the argument that they were exactly right in losing hard early. Bad enough to get good talent. Talent good enough to start winning. If 3-4 years away. Then smart enough to steal a high pick even if we do improve.

Personally I think (if healthy) a team with CJ, Middleton, Bilal, Deni plus 2 high draft picks (and Whitmore) would find it tough to avoid losing our pick (and swap) if we were actively trying to win.

You just need a center and a shooter and you’re a decent team. Not a contender. But good enough to be mid. Add Tre Johnson and Zach Edey and you’re a play in team in the East.

10th seed is no longer our goal though. Let’s get at least one overwhelming talent then build a real contender around him. Put the nasty in Dynasty.

[dckingsfan]

If those Vegas odds turn out to be fairly accurate for the other bottom-feeders, I wouldn't mind at all finishing with 28 or so wins. It would be an encouraging 10-game jump from our 2024-25 season, while still keeping us firmly in the top of the lottery. And with the Phoenix swap, we would still have the best lottery odds among all the teams.

Exactly. You are making progress and not ingraining losing into your culture. You are actively working on creating a better team year-over-year and your odds are really close for the bottom 7 or 8 teams.

A 10 game leap with young talent and still winning the lotto would mean their heavy commitment to early tanking is working. They got good talent, but are taking long enough to develop it that they don’t lose their pick...

I don't think there is any scenario where this team as constructed loses their pick. We can just eliminate that kind of thinking as we are grounded in reality. The question is are they still in deep tank like last year. IMO, the league as constructed doesn't award those types of teams as much as in the past. Correlation does not equal causation.

I hope that Winger and Company have seen this and don't instruct Keefe to do the deep tank again, my 1/2 cent. They have already created a roster that will accomplish this task without any additional influence on the coaching staff.

[payitforward]

Hard for me to imagine adding 10 wins this year.

For one thing, I think people are overlooking how early Tre is in his development. Looking at his college numbers, I see a kid who shot the 3 well & posted a high ft% -- both great things, obviously -- but was mostly pretty poor otherwise. Now, don't get me wrong... you can say the same thing about Devin Booker. But, Devin took a few years to develop into an outstanding player: he was no RoY candidate, for example.

Obviously, OTOH, we're hoping for significant development from Bilal, Sarr, Bub & Ky. If every one of those guys takes a significant -- big! -- jump, ok then maybe it'd be possible to get into the high 20s in wins. Maybe.

But, I'd say 24 is a better number. We'll see....

[AFM]

Hard to say. Tre looked incredibly comfortable in SL which is a great sign. Like I said earlier, and I'm almost never wrong, I anticipate Tre winning ROY.