OT: Official MMA discussion thread pt 3 UFC 319: DDP vs Chimaev, Aaron Pico vs Lerone Murphy

[j4remi]

We have fights this weekend...but this card is pretty damned mid. That doesn't mean there aren't interesting match-ups. So lets take some quick notes:

Main Card notables
Dominick Reyes vs Carlos Ulberg:
I'm really curious about this fight, because I'm not fully sold on either of these guys. Dominick Reyes finally looks like he's found his rhythm after losing 4 consecutive fights, starting with the infamous Jon Jones decision. He sat for nearly two years after that and has won three KO victories in a row. Carlos Ulberg has won 8 straight fights, and finally got a signature win by beating Jan Blachowicz (one of the guys who beat Reyes btw).

But MMA math is complicated. Ulberg fought a soft schedule, and the Blachowicz he fought was 42 and had sat for two years. The reality is that both of these guys have a ton of power and shoddy defense. So, it's more like "who lands a big strike first" rather than "who's better?" I actually consider Reyes more proven, with MUCH tougher competition faced. So, if the odds are good, I'll put a light bet on Reyes in what I'm considering a pick 'em.

Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan:
Weird co-main event...Erslan is 0-2 in the UFC and was 2-2 in KSW. I've seen him get love as a talent, but I just haven't seen it. Jimmy Crute has a 1-3-2 record over his last 6 fights (yes, he has two draws). So, the draw of this fight is that both guys might be fighting to stay in the UFC. That kinda desperation can lead to some epic match-ups.

In terms of talent, I'd lean toward Erslan. Ivan's first two UFC fights were against stiff competition while Crute has struggled to get wins against extremely middling competition. So, I'm leaning to Erslan to beat Crute.

Ramon Taveras vs Jack Jenkins:
I tend to think this was set up as a showcase for Jenkins in Perth. Taveras needed two fights on Contenders to even get in, and he's 1-1 since. Jenkins has beaten quality competition, and actually has some juice. But I've only gotten limited looks at Taveras, so maybe he shows me something this time.

Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny:
This is a weird one. Neil Magny is the ultimated WW/MW gatekeeper, but he's 38 and starting to fade. Matthews was a promising prospect who never could string together wins in big spots. But Matthews is 31 and strong enough that I'd expect him to be able to keep a fight standing with Magny at this stage. So, I'm leaning toward Matthews even though I think Magny wins a few years ago.

Notable names on the prelims:
- First and foremost, my girl Loma Lookboonme is fighting early. She's 7-2 in the UFC, only losing to a prime Angie Hill and the now 6th-ranked Loopy Godinez. Loma has elite striking and clinch work, but is a pure Muay Thai practitioner. That means her takedown defense is middling and her grappling is mostly "survive and try to stand up." She's fighting a Brazilian prospect with only one UFC fight, but a 12-1 record that includes 8 submission victories.

It's a scary match-up for my undersized striking queen.

- Navajo Sterling is a major prospect with impressive power, but he's green. His opponent Rodolfo Bellato is fairly new too, but looks like a decent enough test.

- Michell Montague is undefeated as a pro with wins in Bellator and PFL. So, she's worth looking for on the undercard.

- I don't think Jamie Mularkey has boring fights, and he's bizarrely matched with a guy that has a 0-3 UFC record but who I don't recall watching.

[j4remi]

I've been slacking hard. But there's a really strong PFL card popping right now. Main card starts soon with Usman Nurmagomedov vs Paul Hughes 2, Sergio Pettis vs Magomed Magomedov, and Cory Anderson vs Dovlet Yagshimuradov.

We also go UFC 320 tomorrow with Sandhagen vs Merab and Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev two; plus Jiri vs Khalil Rountree.

Jiri vs Khalil is the real banger, but I don't have too much excitement for the rest of the card. Ankalaev's path to beating Alex is boring, clinch heavy stuff. Sandhagen vs Merab could be good, but it could also just be another takedown cardio class. Then they're still forcing Joe Pyfer onto main cards...he's okay, but he's not that good.

[j4remi]

Sergio Pettis just smoked my PFL parlay, and I'm not even mad because it was so nice.

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[Buttah304]

Alex Pereira resume is outrageous

[j4remi]

The legend of Alex Pereira grows. If he goes to heavyweight, it doesn't matter whether Aspinall or Gane wins. That's the biggest fight the sport can make right now.

Jiri's come from behind win over Khalil was epic too. They put on an easy FotN. Jiri vs Ulberg would be awesome in case Alex moves up. I guess Ankalaev vs Jiri in a grudge match works, but after that loss...I don't picture it.

Merab broke the record for takedowns in a fight, but by the fourth and fifth round his approach was getting boo'ed. His takedowns look good, but I feel like he doesn't do much damage. I had Corey winning 1 and 4, in spite of takedowns and showy submission attempts.

[j4remi]

I've been slacking, and didn't get to shout out my boy Charles Oliveira for a monstrous bounce-back win. He added another submission to his UFC-leading record and smoked Mateusz Gamrot. There's no one with a more entertaining approach at LW.

Charles called out Max Holloway for a BMF belt fight, and a rematch of their first fight (Charles lost due to a collapsed wind pipe very early into the first round). That's a dream match-up between two of my all-time favorite fighters.

On another note, I failed you guys...Deveison Figuieredo was some of the most guaranteed money I've seen in a minute. He came in, got the job done, and my Do-Bronx/Figgy parlay paid out 3:1....woulda been way more if I'd though to pick Charles by submission.

The rest of the card kinda sucked. The only real note I have is that Vicente Luque really should retire. He's not the same fighter he once was, and he's taking way too much damage.

[j4remi]

This weekend's main card is decent. But it lost its main event and wound up with a very mid-finale. That said, the fight has championship implications, so here's some tidbits about the best fights.

Reneir De Ridder vs Brendan Allen:
Reneir De Ridder is one of a handful of 185'ers who have a case for a title shot. His fight with Anthony Hernandez would have decided the next contender, but Fluffy got injured. Brendan Allen is the definition of a gatekeeper who RDR should beat, but not one who makes him a clear-cut contender.

Middleweight is weird right now. All the top guys are willing to fight, but due to injuries and timing, none of them are fighting each other any time soon.

Kevin Holland vs Mike Mallot:
This is such a Kevin Holland fight. Mike Mallot has a great record, but lost to the only truly good fighter he's fought. But Mallot is actually good on the ground, which generally spells trouble for Holland, who fights so often that I'm tired of repeating myself about him. Big Mouth's tough to bet on because he's an inconsistent performer, and the easiest time to bet on his fights are when you bet on him losing to grapplers, but even those results aren't guaranteed.

Marlon Vera vs Aiemann Zahabi:
Chito Vera is a punishing striker, but extremely one-note as a counter striker with good leg kicks. Zahabi is a great grappler with very good game planning but limited striking. Zahabi's coming off a bit of a robbery over Jose Aldo, but I'm not convinced he's very good. I got Chito winning.

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Manon Fiorot:
Jasmine is on a tear right now, with five wins over pretty good opponents. Fiorot's coming off her first UFC loss to the champ Bullet Shevchenko. It's quietly the most interesting matchup on the card. Both fighters are well-rounded, though I'd edge Jasmine on the ground and Manon on the feet. Purely off skillsets, I'd lean Jasudavicius but Fiorot has faced tougher competition by a pretty large margin, and only lost to the absolute best. So, I'm pretty torn.

Charles Jourdain vs Davey Grant:
Two guys who are better than their records suggest because they've fought a bunch of killers. Both guys are really fun to watch and have interesting striking habits. I lean toward Jourdain, but it should be a nice mix of tough striking and scrappy clinchwork.

Danny Barlow vs Djorden Santos:
I'm high on Barlow's potential, but Santos is pretty valid. I'll still circle the odds on Barlow by KO though, and take them if I can get anything near 3-1.