Varsho/Moreno/Kirk Discussion Thread

[Randle McMurphy]

2023-2025 Kirk: 9.7 fWAR
2023-2025 Moreno: 7.5 fWAR
2023-2025 Varsho: 7.3 fWAR
2023 Lourdes: 2.0 fWAR

They chose the best catcher of the two and they acquired the best player in the deal (if Varsho wasn't hurt for large portions of the 2024-2025 seasons, he amasses about 4 more fWAR in that time and maybe more given that he reached a new/improved level as a player in 2025).

Not only is it a clear win for the Jays by any metric, it's easily the best trade this front office has made in its decade running the team. No amount of lies will change that.

The question was always, "could the Jays have gotten more than Varsho"?

Varsho is a 3-5 WAR player. That's a good player, but a top-5 prospect like Moreno had a lot of value. I was hoping we'd aim bigger.

Impossible to know the answer to that and always will be (unless Shatkins give some interview years down the road after they've left this organization), but Varsho was and is a good return.

[brwnman]

2023-2025 Kirk: 9.7 fWAR
2023-2025 Moreno: 7.5 fWAR
2023-2025 Varsho: 7.3 fWAR
2023 Lourdes: 2.0 fWAR

They chose the best catcher of the two and they acquired the best player in the deal (if Varsho wasn't hurt for large portions of the 2024-2025 seasons, he amasses about 4 more fWAR in that time and maybe more given that he reached a new/improved level as a player in 2025).

Not only is it a clear win for the Jays by any metric, it's easily the best trade this front office has made in its decade running the team. No amount of lies will change that.

By any metric? Just showed you a metric right above that Moreno has been by far the better catcher. Try again. Traditional stats are also worth something and cannot be wholly ignored.

Better hitter, higher WAR while playing less games and hasn't lost the starter's role in the last 3 years unlike Kirk. Only reason Kirk was able to amass fWAR is because of injuries. Up until that 2 homerun game on the last day of the season, Moreno was averaging more fWAR/162 than Kirk this season as well.

[brwnman]

ELI5, diff between fWAR and bWAR and why each favour Moreno/Kirk differently?

They measure defensive impact using different stats (UZR vs. DRS). They technically use different offensive stats too, but OPS+ and wRC+ end up being almost identical most of the time so it doesn't matter. This article says that DRS incorporates more data than UZR which estimates more things.

I've always preferred Fangraphs since I find their sorting tools easier to use. They also write good articles. Which one is actually better? I don't know, since defensive impact is so hard to capture. The online consensus nowadays seems to be that OAA is the best defensive stat...

Also varies by position. OAA for outfielders tend to be better than infielders. And it's also a subset of plays and it relies on opportunities. That's why dWAR in any format isn't viewed as highly by front offices when it comes to cutting cheques. Not all WAR is the same. A defense first player getting 5 WAR and an offense first player getting 5 WAR is different. 10/10 times, the player getting 5 WAR offensively will be paid more and for longer term. With more and more defensive data available, we'll see an overhaul of the system at some point in the near future for WAR calculations.

[brwnman]

ELI5, diff between fWAR and bWAR and why each favour Moreno/Kirk differently?

Likely catcher framing is why fWAR favours Kirk.

[Madvillainy2004]

2023-2025 Kirk: 9.7 fWAR
2023-2025 Moreno: 7.5 fWAR
2023-2025 Varsho: 7.3 fWAR
2023 Lourdes: 2.0 fWAR

They chose the best catcher of the two and they acquired the best player in the deal (if Varsho wasn't hurt for large portions of the 2024-2025 seasons, he amasses about 4 more fWAR in that time and maybe more given that he reached a new/improved level as a player in 2025).

Not only is it a clear win for the Jays by any metric, it's easily the best trade this front office has made in its decade running the team. No amount of lies will change that.

By any metric? Just showed you a metric right above that Moreno has been by far the better catcher. Try again. Traditional stats are also worth something and cannot be wholly ignored.

Better hitter, higher WAR while playing less games and hasn't lost the starter's role in the last 3 years unlike Kirk. Only reason Kirk was able to amass fWAR is because of injuries. Up until that 2 homerun game on the last day of the season, Moreno was averaging more fWAR/162 than Kirk this season as well.

I love this "up until Kirk had the most clutch game in modern Jays history Moreno was beating him in fWAR per game. Like he ended up not leading him in it but he almost did!"

We cant just erase players best games man lmao

[Madvillainy2004]

Also when does it just become a pattern that Moreno cant stay on the field? Hes been injured each of the last 3 seasons and the most games hes played in a season was 111 while Kirk hasn't played less than 100 games since 2022.

[Randle McMurphy]

Also when does it just become a pattern that Moreno cant stay on the field? Hes been injured each of the last 3 seasons and the most games hes played in a season was 111 while Kirk hasn't played less than 100 games since 2022.

Fragile slap hitting catchers don’t age well.

That’s why you need traditional stocky catchers like the Captain.

[s e n s i]

remember these rules of kirk-related engagement for this thread

did kirk have a below 3 fWAR season? if so then he's overweight!

did kirk have a 4.7 fWAR season (at the same weight)?: don't say anything about his weight

just too easy

[s e n s i]

moreno's gonna have get some votes on next year's MVP ballot if he wants to be on the same track as alejandro kirk after his age 26 season

[brwnman]

2023-2025 Kirk: 9.7 fWAR
2023-2025 Moreno: 7.5 fWAR
2023-2025 Varsho: 7.3 fWAR
2023 Lourdes: 2.0 fWAR

They chose the best catcher of the two and they acquired the best player in the deal (if Varsho wasn't hurt for large portions of the 2024-2025 seasons, he amasses about 4 more fWAR in that time and maybe more given that he reached a new/improved level as a player in 2025).

Not only is it a clear win for the Jays by any metric, it's easily the best trade this front office has made in its decade running the team. No amount of lies will change that.

By any metric? Just showed you a metric right above that Moreno has been by far the better catcher. Try again. Traditional stats are also worth something and cannot be wholly ignored.

Better hitter, higher WAR while playing less games and hasn't lost the starter's role in the last 3 years unlike Kirk. Only reason Kirk was able to amass fWAR is because of injuries. Up until that 2 homerun game on the last day of the season, Moreno was averaging more fWAR/162 than Kirk this season as well.

I love this "up until Kirk had the most clutch game in modern Jays history Moreno was beating him in fWAR per game. Like he ended up not leading him in it but he almost did!"

We cant just erase players best games man lmao

We can't. But also shows you close they were in "fWAR" and how it means little when comparing the two. Moreno blows him out of the water when it comes to traditional stats, he's the better player. There's not much debate. Over the same period, Moreno has been better.

But hey... let's ignore this .. right?

Kirk v Moreno
2023-2025

Kirk
Games 356
Avg .263
OBP .335
OPS .717
HR 28
OPS+ 100
bWAR 6.2

Moreno
Games 291
Avg .278
OBP .348
OPS .406
HR 21
OPS+ 108
bWAR 8.5


"most clutch game in Modern jays history"

I guess we're talking about this iteration only? Cause Russell Martin, Edwin and Bats has him beat.

[brwnman]

moreno's gonna have get some votes on next year's MVP ballot if he wants to be on the same track as alejandro kirk after his age 26 season

already way past him. Kirk needs to have an OPS above .700 next season to show it's not a fluke season.

[brwnman]

remember these rules of kirk-related engagement for this thread

did kirk have a below 3 fWAR season? if so then he's overweight!

did kirk have a 4.7 fWAR season (at the same weight)?: don't say anything about his weight

just too easy

remember Moreno rules:
- he's a slap hitter who can't hit the ball out of the infield and we're going to ignore the fact that he's a better hitter than both Kirk and Varsho
- bring up Kirk who was not involved in the trade and ignore Corbin Carroll because it really shows who benefited the most in this trade
- don't bring up years of control, and salaries
- forget 2023 & 2024 ever happened and how "well" Kirk and Varsho performed. They didn't happen.

too easy

[Los_29]

This trade looks even better for us when you factor in Moreno’s lack of durability. Varsho has been the best player in the deal and it’s nice knowing he’s played nearly 100 extra games than Moreno.

[Mehar]

This trade looks even better for us when you factor in Moreno’s lack of durability. Varsho has been the best player in the deal and it’s nice knowing he’s played nearly 100 extra games than Moreno.

Moreno was hit by a pitch and fractured his hand, and that is why he was out for over two months this year. Varsho was out for a similar time due to hamstring issues. He was not unfortunately hit by a pitch at the wrong spot on the hand.

Varsho has not been the model of durability also given his time on the injury list this year, and last year also due to his shoulder strain and back tightness. 2023 was the only year Varsho has been healthy all year. Varsho's durability also needs to be questioned. We will see how he performs in 2026, with one more year of arbitration for Varsho, while 4 seasons of arbitration left for Moreno.

[Randle McMurphy]

Best trade in franchise history.

Read on Twitter

[Mehar]

Best trade in franchise history.

Read on Twitter

The trade was Gurriel and Moreno for Varsho. Kirk was already an all-star here. It is news to me that the Jays acquired Kirk in the trade as well (lol). If people want to discuss this trade right now, they should weigh the merits of having Varsho on this roster, compared to both Gurriel and Moreno.

I know I would have taken Gurriel in LF with his contract expiring next year, over paying Santander the guaranteed money they did for 5 years. Even though Gurriel had 80 RBI's playing hurt at times this year, and missed the entire last month of the baseball season due to an ACL injury. Aside from his home runs last year, Santander is overrated in every part of his game (on base rate, his speed, his strike out rate and defensively).

[Randle McMurphy]

Imagine the embarrassment someone would have from choosing slap hitter Moreno over Captain Kirk at this point.

Couldn’t be my team.

[Mehar]

Imagine the embarrassment someone would have from choosing slap hitter Moreno over Captain Kirk at this point.

Couldn’t be my team.

Arizona is thrilled to have Slap Hitter Moreno, who for the third straight year in a row will end up with a higher batting average and OPS over Kirk, while making peanuts once again (making $793,000 and 11 million less than Kirk). Still 4 more years of arbitration left for Moreno also, where he will be making substantially less than Kirk over the next 4 years.

Hopefully the Jays can go to the World Series this year like Arizona did in 2023, courtesy of both Kirk and Gurriel. Just like Arizona is happy they traded Varsho for two pieces that were instrumental in going to the World Series, while keeping Carroll in the outfield (since they were determined to trade one of their outfielders that year). You can say Arizona chose wisely also- acquiring Gurriel, Moreno, and keeping Carroll over the inferior bat of Varsho who will be a free agent after next year.

[-MetA4-]

We gonna talk about Varsho raking so far vs. the Yanks?

Boy, I wish we had GURRIEL instead!

[-MetA4-]

We gonna talk about Varsho raking so far vs. the Yanks?

Boy, I wish we had GURRIEL instead!

Should I repeat myself?