What would YOUR rotation look like to start the season?

[League Circles]

In fairness to Vuc who I often absolutely trash, IF Okoro starts, which he probably will, Vuc's shooting range makes a lot of sense to complement the other 4 guys.

If Vuc actually shoots well:
2024: 40.2% Hooray!
2023: 29.4% Unplayably bad
2022: 34.9% Bad (given only wide open shots and no one guarding him)
2021: 31.4% Unplayably bad

The good news is the most recent year is a good year, the bad news is that over the last four years, two of them were god awful, like don't even shoot bad, and 1 was bad but not god awful.

I totally agree with your implication, I just think it's worth noting that despite that concern, I think we'd all unanimously bet on Vuc over Collins and even Smith in terms of likelihood to provide spacing and scoring from distance. He just has more obvious shooting touch IMO. For shooting from distance, Vuc is to Smith and Collins sort of what Coby is to guys like Ayo and Giddey. Sure the latter two have had seasons with good % from three etc, but when you look at the shooting form, comfort level, sample size etc, it's obvious that Coby and Vuc are more skilled perimeter shooters than Collins, Smith, Ayo and Giddey. Doesn't mean they'll always have a better statistical season, or even a good one as you displayed. But in a lineup starting with these 4 assumptions:

Matas
Giddey
Okoro
Coby

.... To me, the most needed thing offensively for that group is obviously another real shooter like Coby. Vuc is the best bet for that. I just think his atrocious D outweighs that. I guess I think Billy might be allowing what I speculate as his decision to start Okoro as the 4th starter dictate starting Vuc as his 5th, rather than how I see it, which is that decision of who to start at C is first, because I think the upside potential of Smith over Vuc and Collins is more important than the upside comparison between Okoro, Ayo, Patrick and Huerter for the 5th starter.

[meekrab]

In fairness to Vuc who I often absolutely trash, IF Okoro starts, which he probably will, Vuc's shooting range makes a lot of sense to complement the other 4 guys.

If Vuc actually shoots well:
2024: 40.2% Hooray!
2023: 29.4% Unplayably bad
2022: 34.9% Bad (given only wide open shots and no one guarding him)
2021: 31.4% Unplayably bad

The good news is the most recent year is a good year, the bad news is that over the last four years, two of them were god awful, like don't even shoot bad, and 1 was bad but not god awful.

That 40% was also with teams completely ignoring him outside of 15 feet, shooting 40% might look good on the stat sheet but if doesn't actually space the floor it's not helping the rest of the offense.

[dougthonus]

I totally agree with your implication, I just think it's worth noting that despite that concern, I think we'd all unanimously bet on Vuc over Collins and even Smith in terms of likelihood to provide spacing and scoring from distance. He just has more obvious shooting touch IMO.

I don't know that I'd bet on Vuc over Smith in terms of likelihood of providing space. I'd call that a toss up perhaps. No one really guards Vuc at the three point line, so he isn't really creating space. He may punish the defense for not defending him (and did a great job of that last year). Probably he was getting defended a bit more last year because of his good shooting.

.... To me, the most needed thing offensively for that group is obviously another real shooter like Coby. Vuc is the best bet for that. I just think his atrocious D outweighs that. I guess I think Billy might be allowing what I speculate as his decision to start Okoro as the 4th starter dictate starting Vuc as his 5th, rather than how I see it, which is that decision of who to start at C is first, because I think the upside potential of Smith over Vuc and Collins is more important than the upside comparison between Okoro, Ayo, Patrick and Huerter for the 5th starter.

I don't actually think Vuc is much better than other guys. He's only a wide open shooter, he's not got a history of high accuracy. I think he's massively overrated historically as a shooter. Last year was the 2nd good shooting year of his career where he had a good percentage and decent volume.

Also, just having a bad option that's less bad than other options as shooters doesn't make it helpful for the team. Vuc actually has to be a really good option for that to be true where he actually provides spacing, and historically that has not been the case.

[ImSlower]

I would say:
Starters: Giddey, Coby, Okoro, Matas, Collins

I'd start with Ayo, Huerter, and Tre fighting backup minutes at the 1-3.
Pat / Essengue fighting for backup forward
Smith as the back up center

Initially out: Vuc, Terry, Philips, Carter

I have this ugly, gnawing, feeling in my gut that Vuc and PWill will both end up starting. Vuc because it is very likely. Williams because I have Pat Williams PTSD.

I would not be surprised either. Same as you, my PPWTSD hits every time he comes on to the court. I tend toward moment-to-moment reckless optimism masking an undercurrent of sports cynicism, so I've long hoped for his success. Alas, I can't think of any Bull or Cardinal - the only to teams I have followed most of my life - I have ever disliked more. Full stop. I never liked him from the jump (pun intended), and he's only aggravated me more every season. Last season I found myself abandoning the broadcast any time he was on the court, such is my state of discontent.

I continue to hope that my rare open hostility toward a player on my team of choice is unfounded, and he proves me wrong. We've said this five frustrating years in a row, but the player they envisioned when they picked him really is exactly what the starting roster needs. Some fans (and staff) still think it's going to happen, and more power to ya.

My rotation would have Williams and Vuc on <10 mpg each, both 3rd options or injury fill-ins, with the hope that some team takes them in trade. I also want my work to give me a paid vacation. Both are beautiful daydreams, only.

[League Circles]

I totally agree with your implication, I just think it's worth noting that despite that concern, I think we'd all unanimously bet on Vuc over Collins and even Smith in terms of likelihood to provide spacing and scoring from distance. He just has more obvious shooting touch IMO.

I don't know that I'd bet on Vuc over Smith in terms of likelihood of providing space. I'd call that a toss up perhaps. No one really guards Vuc at the three point line, so he isn't really creating space. He may punish the defense for not defending him (and did a great job of that last year). Probably he was getting defended a bit more last year because of his good shooting.

.... To me, the most needed thing offensively for that group is obviously another real shooter like Coby. Vuc is the best bet for that. I just think his atrocious D outweighs that. I guess I think Billy might be allowing what I speculate as his decision to start Okoro as the 4th starter dictate starting Vuc as his 5th, rather than how I see it, which is that decision of who to start at C is first, because I think the upside potential of Smith over Vuc and Collins is more important than the upside comparison between Okoro, Ayo, Patrick and Huerter for the 5th starter.

I don't actually think Vuc is much better than other guys. He's only a wide open shooter, he's not got a history of high accuracy. I think he's massively overrated historically as a shooter. Last year was the 2nd good shooting year of his career where he had a good percentage and decent volume.

Also, just having a bad option that's less bad than other options as shooters doesn't make it helpful for the team. Vuc actually has to be a really good option for that to be true where he actually provides spacing, and historically that has not been the case.

I'm just saying, since I'm primarily an eye test guy, Vuc is easily the best offensive player of the 3 centers, full stop. And unlike me, who doesn't believe that's enough because of his atrocious defense at a critical position while also in a lineup with Coby and Giddey, I speculate that Billy has decided to start Okoro already and is using THAT in his mind to justify continuing to start Vuc, despite his possible acceptance that Vuc isn't good overall, because with the other 4 guys, he might think spacing is more important than overall quality or defense.

[wolffy]

I'd be surprised if both Coby and Jones didn't start, with Josh playing pg and defending the worse wing player.

Okoro is gonna have to show me something different than I saw in Cleveland before I even want him on the court, let alone starting.

[dougthonus]

I'm just saying, since I'm primarily an eye test guy, Vuc is easily the best offensive player of the 3 centers, full stop. And unlike me, who doesn't believe that's enough because of his atrocious defense at a critical position while also in a lineup with Coby and Giddey, I speculate that Billy has decided to start Okoro already and is using THAT in his mind to justify continuing to start Vuc, despite his possible acceptance that Vuc isn't good overall, because with the other 4 guys, he might think spacing is more important than overall quality or defense.

I think Vuc is by far the most skilled offensively. I'm not sure that he's the best for the team offense on the floor. Collins has a pretty close per minute scoring rate and plays a ton faster and requires fewer touches keeping the ball in the hands of others. Unless Vuc shoots around 40% from three, I think the team offense will operate better with Collins due to his impact on other players.

If we were in a 1:1 offensive skills competition, Vuc would destroy our other centers, but he can't utilize those skills well enough to be better than the other options on the floor most of the time, and his inability to run in a fast offense, gather offensive rebounds, help generate turnovers that will key our offense, and high amount of clock he utilizes on touches are all things that still hurt our offense. For all Vuc's reputation as a passer, Collins actually generates more assists per 36 in recent years, and way more assists per touch.

So while I agree, Vuc in a vacuum is the most talented offensively, basketball isn't played in a vacuum, and his skills aren't that meaningful at the level he executes them in today's game.

[Chi town]

The lineup I want to see that we won’t see is…

Giddey Coby Buz Pat Noa.

I do think we will see good 2nd half mins for Noa.

[sco]

I'm just saying, since I'm primarily an eye test guy, Vuc is easily the best offensive player of the 3 centers, full stop. And unlike me, who doesn't believe that's enough because of his atrocious defense at a critical position while also in a lineup with Coby and Giddey, I speculate that Billy has decided to start Okoro already and is using THAT in his mind to justify continuing to start Vuc, despite his possible acceptance that Vuc isn't good overall, because with the other 4 guys, he might think spacing is more important than overall quality or defense.

I think Vuc is by far the most skilled offensively. I'm not sure that he's the best for the team offense on the floor. Collins has a pretty close per minute scoring rate and plays a ton faster and requires fewer touches keeping the ball in the hands of others. Unless Vuc shoots around 40% from three, I think the team offense will operate better with Collins due to his impact on other players.

If we were in a 1:1 offensive skills competition, Vuc would destroy our other centers, but he can't utilize those skills well enough to be better than the other options on the floor most of the time, and his inability to run in a fast offense, gather offensive rebounds, help generate turnovers that will key our offense, and high amount of clock he utilizes on touches are all things that still hurt our offense. For all Vuc's reputation as a passer, Collins actually generates more assists per 36 in recent years, and way more assists per touch.

So while I agree, Vuc in a vacuum is the most talented offensively, basketball isn't played in a vacuum, and his skills aren't that meaningful at the level he executes them in today's game.

I'll add that Vuc's offense is almost totally predicated on an offense that is half-court centric, with the center position being the a key touch point on every possession. That's not the way we are supposedly playing. After really enjoying how much better Collins and Smith looked in our offense with Vuc out, because they actually can play effectively in transition, it all became obvious. Add to it that whatever you may pick-up offensively (maybe nothing) by starting Vuc, we easily lose that on the defensive end. Saying that Vuc is a better player because he does the things that have been noted on this page, IMO, is a lot like saying Justin Fields is a better quarterback than Joe Burrow because he's a better runner.

[Chi town]

Sure looks like Okoro in the starting SF quarterbacking the defense.

Wonder if Ayo starts to replace Coby to see how Huerter does as our 6th man

[RSP83]

I think the opening night starters will be Vuc, Matas, Okoro, Coby, Giddey.

First of all this team is not fully committed to rebuilding so delusional AK is still pushing Billy to win as many games as possible. So I think that starting 5 is the probably the best this team can offer given their "ambition".

Tre Jones will be the primary backup 1.
Collins will be the main backup 5.
Pat will be the main backup 4.
Jalen Smith will continue to be used sporadically and situationally at 4/5 (Billy never really trusted him for some reason).
Huerter will see minutes at 2 and 3.
Ayo will see minutes playing from 1 to 3.
Noa will be in similar situation as Matas last year.

[sco]

I think the opening night starters will be Vuc, Matas, Okoro, Coby, Giddey.

First of all this team is not fully committed to rebuilding so delusional AK is still pushing Billy to win as many games as possible. So I think that starting 5 is the probably the best this team can offer given their "ambition".

Tre Jones will be the primary backup 1.
Collins will be the main backup 5.
Pat will be the main backup 4.
Jalen Smith will continue to be used sporadically and situationally at 4/5 (Billy never really trusted him for some reason).
Huerter will see minutes at 2 and 3.
Ayo will see minutes playing from 1 to 3.
Noa will be in similar situation as Matas last year.

Yeah, it's not even that they won't commit to a rebuild but that they are trying to not see how our new core of White/Giddey/Matas can be built around. The whole focus on defense and taking charges need IMO stems from the fact that the rest of the starters are all out of position in order to hedge to help Vuc do his job defensively. I really want to see if Coby is a keeper, but with Vuc starting, we'll keep seeing the same defensive problems and won't learn if by playing Collins or Smith (both average defensive C's which would be a massive upgrade) if our White/Giddey pairing can be compensated for. This will put us in a situation where we'll need to either pay-up or lose Coby for nothing without the insight as to whether better defense from the C position is enough to offset the challenge.

Also, I am 100% all-in on trying to get Matas to become our 3rd option (to help him reach his ceiling) by running more of the offense through him instead of Vuc. Matas looked exciting both in the full-court and the half-court as a scorer/secondary playmaker.

If we aren't going to play Smith for some unknowable reason, why the F didn't we trade him in the offseason?

[Ice Man]

53.3%/31.4%
59.4%/34.9%
54%/29.4%
61.1%/40.2%

A low 30% 3-point shooter who is unmarked and who takes volume shots is DEATH to an offense. First, those are 45% to 50% TS attempts, which is bad. You won't win games with that sort of efficiency. Second, as you write, because the player is unmarked, the remaining attackers are 4v5.

Post-injury Rose, Kris Dunn, Vuc ... those are offense killers. Bad announcers will often say, "hey you're open you gotta take that shot to keep the defense honest." You damn well do not. Move the ball and get yourself at a spot where you can score efficiently.

Last year was fine for Vuc's 3-point shooting. But that does seem to be an outlier.

[mack2354]

Vuc (hate it but have to accept reality) / Collins

Matas / P. Will

Okoro / Ayo

White / Carter (if he keeps playing like his 1st 2 preseason games)

Giddey / T. Jones

Terry and Phillips are athletic but games having developed at all. Noa is still too raw. Huerter is a taller Carter without the defense. I don't know what has gotten into Carter but he has looked like his Mil Bucks self. I don't see what Huerter brings to the team over Carter when Carter's shot is falling and he's playing with so much energy on both ends.

Sent from my SM-A146U using RealGM mobile app

[Chi town]

It’s becoming increasingly clear Okoro will start.
Tre Jones will be the 6th man and probably lead mins behind Coby and Giddey.

Ayo and Huerter will be our 7-8 guys and Pat our backup 4. Collins the backup 5.

The rest of the guys only play when guys are out or foul trouble.

I think after 20 games and showing out in the G League Noa will be in the rotation. After the trade deadline he will play more.

[ChiTownHero1992]

Pre All-Star Break:

GIddey/Tre/Carter
Coby/Ayo/Terry
Okoro/Huerter/Phillips
Buzelis/Williams/Essengue
Vucevic/Collins/Smith

Post All-Star Break:
Giddey/Tre
Coby/Ayo
Okoro/Williams
Buzelis/Essengue
Smith/Collins
And 5 new guys sprinkled in elsewhere...preferably WIlliams, Okoro, Collins also moved for capital or better players

[2weekswithpay]

Giddey/Tre/Ayo
Coby/Huerter/Ayo
Okoro/Huerter/Noa/Phillips
Matas/Pat/Noa/Phillips
Collins/Smith

Giddey/Coby/Matas - This trio wasn't effective last season, with a -6.3 net rating in 422 minutes. However, we're invested in these 3, so we need to see if their lineups will yield positive returns.

Collins should be the 4th starter. He's the best defensive big we have, and we need to see how Giddey/Coby/Matas look playing with a more traditional big. He's a capable passer, Smith is lacking in this area. Lineups with Collins had a +6 net rating. We need to see if his lineups stay effective for an entire season.

The 5th starter should be Okoro or Huerter. Okoro for on-ball defense and foul drawing potential. Lineups with Huerter had an offensive rating of 122. This shouldn't be ignored, even with the questionable sample size.

I wouldn't play Vuc. His on/off splits are terrible. It doesn't seem to matter what combination of players you throw out there with him, the lineups are bad. I actually think Vuc is providing spacing. When Vuc is on the court, players are more efficient and get to the rim more. I think Vuc's inability to grab offensive rebounds or draw fouls is what hurt his offensive value the most.

Ayo is further down in the rotation compared to others. Probably unpopular, but like Vuc, Ayo's on/off numbers are terrible. He may pass the eye test, but statistics show that he's ineffective.

Pat plays to see if he can at least become a rotation player again. If he can't, then he should be pushed out of the rotation.

[nomorezorro]

based on preseason: i am ready to buy out nikola vucevic. i am ready to put dalen terry last in line for wing minutes. i am ready to let patrick williams disappoint me again.

my rotation would be something like

giddey / jones
coby / ayo
okoro / huerter
matas / pat / essengue
collins / smith

[sco]

based on preseason: i am ready to buy out nikola vucevic. i am ready to put dalen terry last in line for wing minutes. i am ready to let patrick williams disappoint me again.

my rotation would be something like

giddey / jones
coby / ayo
okoro / huerter
matas / pat / essengue
collins / smith

I'm with you.

I'm rooting for Jones getting 26 MPG. He can steal minutes from Pat and Huerter because Giddey can effectively play the 3 or 4 on defense for stretches. I think that Billy will want either (or both) Giddey or Jones on the floor at all times and either Okoro or Jones. Jones will be our Caruso this season.

[MrSparkle]

Until Vuc is waived, traded or benched, we're in limbo. Ultimately, I just accept that -10 handicap for what it is, since Billy won't reduce his role. I double-down on 3P spacing being the most important thing for Giddey (and Vuc) to work with. Defense will be damned, either way. Atleast my eyes won’t bleed (on the offensive end).

Giddey - Tre
Coby - Ayo
Huerter - Okoro
Buz - Pat - Noa
Vuc - Collins - Smith