Training Camp - 2025

[Wizenheimer]

Spoiler:

Video explains it, but reporting comes from Jake Fisher. Richman does a good job of summing Fisher up as a guy who's more of the "how the sausage is made" reporter vs a news breaker like Shams/Woj reporter. He has a lot of news about what talks are happening, but as we've seen from some insider posters here as well, just because of you have news of what's being discussed one day doesn't mean that's what will happen.

So seems fair to say the Blazers want Sharpe on a 20ish mil per deal. Seems to be the going rate for these level of young guys who show really good potential but are still a questionmark if they'll take that next step people think they have in them.

well, if it's a Giddey level deal, that's 25M/year

looking at Sharpe's draft class - lottery:

1 - Banchero....5 year max deal @ 48M/year
2 - Holmgren....5 year max deal @ 48M/year
3 - Jabari Smith....5 year deal at 24.4M/year
4 - Keegan Murray....no extension yet
5 - Jaden Ivey....no extension yet
6 - Benedict Mathurin....no extension yet
7 - Sharpe....no extension yet
8 - Dyson Daniels....no extension yet
9 - Jeremy Sochan....no extension yet
10 - Johnny Davis (bust)....no extension yet
11- Osumane Dieng....no extension yet
12 - Jalen Williams....5 year max deal at 48M/year
13 - Jalen Duren....no extension yet
14 - Ochai Ogbaji....no extension yet

27 - Nikola Jovic....4 year deal at 15.6M

so basically, 3 players signed for the rookie supermax. And one player, Jabari Smith, signed for a level of contract that Sharpe might get....unless he goes crazy this season and becomes Portland's best player.

unless there's a flood of players signing extensions in the next 2 weeks, Sharpe would be entering restricted free agency at the same time a a lot of players. I'm also wondering, going by the Giddey/Kuminga/Cam Thomas stalemates this summer if at long last NBA front offices are holding the line against issuing albatross contracts for rookie extensions

the scary thing is that if the Blazers sign Sharpe for 25M/year, it could be a real bargain....or a regretful signing

.

Very interesting.

It appears the new CBA has sharpe teeth, making GMs cautious. The days of players/agents demanding, show me the money. Have turned into GMs demanding, show me the game..

How the contract for Dyson Daniels plays out, may have a big impact on the future contracts of this Blazers roster.

No GM wants, nor can afford, another J. Grant situation. If they want to contend.

Sharpe at $20M-25M per year feels right.

I think the apparent restraint by front offices is directly linked to the Aprons. Those aprons kill flexibility; and the 2nd apron is a dead zone

I agree that as an extension Sharpe at 20-25M/year seems about right. The problem is if Sharpe comes out and has a great season, especially if he looks like the Blazer's best player, there's no way he signs for 20-25M/year, and next summer the situation could get ugly. And all it would take is one other team willing to roll the dice on Sharpe; and then the Blazers would be in a bind

on the other hand, if he comes out and stinks it up, a 4-year/100M deal would instantly become an albatross contract

[zzaj]

Thanks for that money context in Sharpe's class, Wiz...it is indeed pretty interesting.

Honestly, if Sharpe plays exactly like he has for the last 3 years I think he'd still be worth a 4/100 contract. Although, that's also me trying to adjust my brain to 25M a season not being a huge amount of money.

[Wizenheimer]

Thanks for that money context in Sharpe's class, Wiz...it is indeed pretty interesting.

Honestly, if Sharpe plays exactly like he has for the last 3 years I think he'd still be worth a 4/100 contract. Although, that's also me trying to adjust my brain to 25M a season not being a huge amount of money.

the thing is, and I haven't 'proved' this so I don't know if it's true or not, I'm thinking that most rookie scale players don't get an extension after their 3rd season UNLESS they are already at all-star level, or at least close to that. There will be exceptions obviously; CJ got an extension after his 3rd season but Olshey was an absolute idiot about CJ

so, Sharpe not getting an extension would seem the norm. Obviously, if the Blazers could get him at a real bargain, they'd do it. That fits with the rumored 4-year/90M offer.

the last Blazer player that was re-signed as an RFA after their 4th season, was Simons. He got a 4-year/100M contract...25M/year. But he signed that deal when the salary cap was 123.6M. Sharpe would be signing his deal when the cap is projected to be in the 166-170M range. Assuming the mid point of that, the cap for Sharpe's RFA year would be 45M higher than for Simons. That's 36% higher. If you normalize for that differential, that would put Sharpe's 'new' contract at 34M/year. And the same GM who gave Simons that deal, may be the one negotiating with Sharpe, and his agent

in other words, whether it's a 4 year deal at 90-100M or at 120M, if Sharpe is willing to bet on himself, there's no compelling reason for him to settle for that level of a deal. Furthermore, if he's negotiating as an RFA next summer, he can get a 5 year deal instead of a 4 year deal and for a lot more money

something else to: I'd be pretty sure Sharpe and his agent are aware of all of there factors. Meaning, if the Blazers come out this season and bench Sharpe, making him a back-up, I'd imagine it will generate some negative feelings from Sharpe's camp and really sour the relationship of Sharpe/Billups. It would probably be viewed as a tactic to limit Sharpe's leverage next July

[zzaj]

Thanks for that money context in Sharpe's class, Wiz...it is indeed pretty interesting.

Honestly, if Sharpe plays exactly like he has for the last 3 years I think he'd still be worth a 4/100 contract. Although, that's also me trying to adjust my brain to 25M a season not being a huge amount of money.

the thing is, and I haven't 'proved' this so I don't know if it's true or not, I'm thinking that most rookie scale players don't get an extension after their 3rd season UNLESS they are already at all-star level, or at least close to that. There will be exceptions obviously; CJ got an extension after his 3rd season but Olshey was an absolute idiot about CJ

so, Sharpe not getting an extension would seem the norm. Obviously, if the Blazers could get him at a real bargain, they'd do it. That fits with the rumored 4-year/90M offer.

the last Blazer player that was re-signed as an RFA after their 4th season, was Simons. He got a 4-year/100M contract...25M/year. But he signed that deal when the salary cap was 123.6M. Sharpe would be signing his deal when the cap is projected to be in the 166-170M range. Assuming the mid point of that, the cap for Sharpe's RFA year would be 45M higher than for Simons. That's 36% higher. If you normalize for that differential, that would put Sharpe's 'new' contract at 34M/year. And the same GM who gave Simons that deal, may be the one negotiating with Sharpe, and his agent

in other words, whether it's a 4 year deal at 90-100M or at 120M, if Sharpe is willing to bet on himself, there's no compelling reason for him to settle for that level of a deal. Furthermore, if he's negotiating as an RFA next summer, he can get a 5 year deal instead of a 4 year deal and for a lot more money

something else to: I'd be pretty sure Sharpe and his agent are aware of all of there factors. Meaning, if the Blazers come out this season and bench Sharpe, making him a back-up, I'd imagine it will generate some negative feelings from Sharpe's camp and really sour the relationship of Sharpe/Billups. It would probably be viewed as a tactic to limit Sharpe's leverage next July

Yeah, again...all good context to consider in an interesting situation. The only "compelling" reason I can think of that Sharpe may be willing to settle for 4/90-120M, is that 25M(ish) is still a lot of money. Certainly going from averaging around 7M a year to 25M a year would still feel massive.

EDIT: I could also see a situation arising where Sharpe comes off the bench this year because the organization wants to win as much as possible and with older players expecting veteran minutes--I imagine not starting going into your 4th year has weight with a player. Also, the org seems to be doubling down on a defensive identity...not an identity that has ever been associated with Shaedon Sharpe. Also, the offense basically cut out midrange shots last year. If that continues and Sharpe sees that as part of his game that's getting ignored? Well, all of that could possibly equal Sharpe welcoming a chance to make more money in a different location next season.
But yeah, I don't know how NBA players think or what their scale for money is. I am not sure most of us can really feel into that.

[Walton1one]

the last Blazer player that was re-signed as an RFA after their 4th season, was Simons. He got a 4-year/100M contract...25M/year. But he signed that deal when the salary cap was 123.6M. Sharpe would be signing his deal when the cap is projected to be in the 166-170M range. Assuming the mid point of that, the cap for Sharpe's RFA year would be 45M higher than for Simons. That's 36% higher. If you normalize for that differential, that would put Sharpe's 'new' contract at 34M/year. And the same GM who gave Simons that deal, may be the one negotiating with Sharpe, and his agent

in other words, whether it's a 4 year deal at 90-100M or at 120M, if Sharpe is willing to bet on himself, there's no compelling reason for him to settle for that level of a deal. Furthermore, if he's negotiating as an RFA next summer, he can get a 5 year deal instead of a 4 year deal and for a lot more money

something else to: I'd be pretty sure Sharpe and his agent are aware of all of there factors. Meaning, if the Blazers come out this season and bench Sharpe, making him a back-up, I'd imagine it will generate some negative feelings from Sharpe's camp and really sour the relationship of Sharpe/Billups. It would probably be viewed as a tactic to limit Sharpe's leverage next July

Yeah, all the more reason to have Cronin gone before that deal is negotiated, and judging by some of Dundon's history, he doesn't appear to be the type to give out big contracts for the heck of it (like Cronin did with Simons, and with Grant, and with GP2) so it will be interesting to see if ANY deals are done beofre Dundon has the reigns. I would imagine he would want to have a say in those important decisions and it would likely be bad for Cronin if he made those deals w\o Dundon's consent.
I don't trust Cronin at all to make a smart signing as he has shown himself to date to be completely incapable of doing so, as was his predecessor (Olshey) and the new CBA is more punishing\less flexible to team building to those teams who waste cap space, but then again, Cronin just traded for 36yr old Jrue Holiday who is owed $32/$35/$37 million over the next 3 years and with the knowledge they have to likely resign Sharpe, Camara, Deni & Scoot....

I don't think Sharpe is worth north of $25mil right now, neither is Camara worth that or much more for that matter, good 3& D player but I don't see a lot of those getting north of $30mil

Herb Jones - just signed a new deal @ $20/22/24
Jaden McDaniels - signed 5yr deal @ $22/24/26/28/29
OG Anunoby - signed 5yr deal @ $36/39/42/45/48
NAW - just signed 4yr deal @ $15/$14/$15/$16
Naz Reid - just signed deal @ $21/23/25/26/28
DFS - just signed a 4yr deal @ $12/13/13/13
PJ Washingotn - signed a 4yr deal @ $19/21/23/24

[Walton1one]

Read on Twitter

I would put POR in this boat, especially when it comes to their deeper bench/2-ways, look at this variety: Banton, Walker, Minaya, McGowens, Moore, Rupert, Murray, Cissoko

Where are most of these guys right now? The first 5 are out of the league (or on the verge of it), and the other 3 will likely be gone next year, and yet Cronin prioritized those guys over bringing in 2nd round picks or players, oh I don't know, who were not 6'5-6'7 and could actually shoot? I take that back, they brought in Caleb Love, the 5yr college player with a career FG% of 39% and 3ptFG of 34%. Wonderful, short AND can't shoot or play efficiently whatsoever.

[Butter]

What's the minimum number of years the Blazers can extend Sharp on the rookie extension?

Could they do a 2 year extension, with a 3rd year player option? That gives the Blazers some stability, and a chance to see if Shaedon has really ascended to be worth a long term big money contract. AND - Shae wouldn't be locked into a 4 year deal at "mid" player salary levels.

[zzaj]

What's the minimum number of years the Blazers can extend Sharp on the rookie extension?

Could they do a 2 year extension, with a 3rd year player option? That gives the Blazers some stability, and a chance to see if Shaedon has really ascended to be worth a long term big money contract. AND - Shae wouldn't be locked into a 4 year deal at "mid" player salary levels.

I may be wrong but I don't believe there are any minimums for length for a rookie extension...players like guaranteed money though, a 2 year extension with a player option leaves at least 1 or 2 years of money on the table for Shaedon, should he get hurt or something. If he signs a full extension he'll get paid no matter what.

It's really up to Sharpe, what he wants to do. Sign now for guaranteed money, or bank on himself and staying healthy by testing the RFA waters next season. It'll be interesting to see what he chooses...

[dckingsfan]

What's the minimum number of years the Blazers can extend Sharp on the rookie extension?

Could they do a 2 year extension, with a 3rd year player option? That gives the Blazers some stability, and a chance to see if Shaedon has really ascended to be worth a long term big money contract. AND - Shae wouldn't be locked into a 4 year deal at "mid" player salary levels.

I may be wrong but I don't believe there are any minimums for length for a rookie extension...players like guaranteed money though, a 2 year extension with a player option leaves at least 1 or 2 years of money on the table for Shaedon, should he get hurt or something. If he signs a full extension he'll get paid no matter what.

It's really up to Sharpe, what he wants to do. Sign now for guaranteed money, or bank on himself and staying healthy by testing the RFA waters next season. It'll be interesting to see what he chooses...

Given what has happened recently - he should just take the 22.5M and run.

If he believes in himself - do two years with a option on the third year (this is where the Warriors beat down Kuminga. Just insist it is a team option.

Next year there are going to be a lot of players available and Sharpe will be the odd man out.

[zzaj]

What's the minimum number of years the Blazers can extend Sharp on the rookie extension?

Could they do a 2 year extension, with a 3rd year player option? That gives the Blazers some stability, and a chance to see if Shaedon has really ascended to be worth a long term big money contract. AND - Shae wouldn't be locked into a 4 year deal at "mid" player salary levels.

I may be wrong but I don't believe there are any minimums for length for a rookie extension...players like guaranteed money though, a 2 year extension with a player option leaves at least 1 or 2 years of money on the table for Shaedon, should he get hurt or something. If he signs a full extension he'll get paid no matter what.

It's really up to Sharpe, what he wants to do. Sign now for guaranteed money, or bank on himself and staying healthy by testing the RFA waters next season. It'll be interesting to see what he chooses...

Given what has happened recently - he should just take the 22.5M and run.

If he believes in himself - do two years with a option on the third year (this is where the Warriors beat down Kuminga. Just insist it is a team option.

Next year there are going to be a lot of players available and Sharpe will be the odd man out.

Yeah, if I'm the Blazers I push for 5/115M. I doubt Sharpe would go for that, although getting 115M dollars and hitting FA again at 27 when I'm sure he thinks he'll be one of the best players in the NBA isn't such a bad thing. I would expect him to want the same money on a 3 or 4 year deal, however.

[dckingsfan]

I may be wrong but I don't believe there are any minimums for length for a rookie extension...players like guaranteed money though, a 2 year extension with a player option leaves at least 1 or 2 years of money on the table for Shaedon, should he get hurt or something. If he signs a full extension he'll get paid no matter what.

It's really up to Sharpe, what he wants to do. Sign now for guaranteed money, or bank on himself and staying healthy by testing the RFA waters next season. It'll be interesting to see what he chooses...

Given what has happened recently - he should just take the 22.5M and run.

If he believes in himself - do two years with a option on the third year (this is where the Warriors beat down Kuminga. Just insist it is a team option.

Next year there are going to be a lot of players available and Sharpe will be the odd man out.

Yeah, if I'm the Blazers I push for 5/115M. I doubt Sharpe would go for that, although getting 115M dollars and hitting FA again at 27 when I'm sure he thinks he'll be one of the best players in the NBA isn't such a bad thing. I would expect him to want the same money on a 3 or 4 year deal, however.

3 years @ $69M is fine too.

[PDXKnight]

Given what has happened recently - he should just take the 22.5M and run.

If he believes in himself - do two years with a option on the third year (this is where the Warriors beat down Kuminga. Just insist it is a team option.

Next year there are going to be a lot of players available and Sharpe will be the odd man out.

Yeah, if I'm the Blazers I push for 5/115M. I doubt Sharpe would go for that, although getting 115M dollars and hitting FA again at 27 when I'm sure he thinks he'll be one of the best players in the NBA isn't such a bad thing. I would expect him to want the same money on a 3 or 4 year deal, however.

3 years @ $69M is fine too.

Doubt he's going that price for 3 years, that probably takes it to 80 mil.

[dckingsfan]

Yeah, if I'm the Blazers I push for 5/115M. I doubt Sharpe would go for that, although getting 115M dollars and hitting FA again at 27 when I'm sure he thinks he'll be one of the best players in the NBA isn't such a bad thing. I would expect him to want the same money on a 3 or 4 year deal, however.

3 years @ $69M is fine too.

Doubt he's going that price for 3 years, that probably takes it to 80 mil.

I think that is way to high... especially with what happened in his last of season, 25M per year is an overpay. 26+ is ridiculous (opinion). But this is Cronin so...

[Walton1one]

The new CBA, apron restrictions, RFA are not getting major money unless they show they are elite, which Sharpe has not shown yet. You could argue CHI overpaid for Giddey @ $25m. Looking at what other, better players are getting, around $20mil should be the top limit, same for Camara ($20-25)

[JasonStern]

NAW - just signed 4yr deal @ $15/$14/$15/$16

I will never understand why the Blazers traded him for basically a ham sandwich. This is literally where NBA GMs are so incompetent compared to NFL GMs. You can just let rookie contracts run out, and if the player isn't worth retaining - just let them walk. There's a draft every year.

This type of reasoning is how we got stuck in Grant's contract. Dude isn't a difference maker, but Cronin was all "OMG we gave up a late 1st! Can't lose him for nothing! Give him all our moneys!" And now a quarter of our cap is tied up in a 31 year old player averaging 14ppg/3rpg right when our youth are coming up for extensions.

[dckingsfan]

The new CBA, apron restrictions, RFA are not getting major money unless they show they are elite, which Sharpe has not shown yet. You could argue CHI overpaid for Giddey @ $25m. Looking at what other, better players are getting, around $20mil should be the top limit, same for Camara ($20-25)

I look at Camara a bit differently since he made the all-defensive team (another way to say this is the top of your range).

Definitely Sharpe shouldn't exceed 20 but I am guess it will be ~22.5

[mighty_duck]

This type of reasoning is how we got stuck in Grant's contract. Dude isn't a difference maker, but Cronin was all "OMG we gave up a late 1st! Can't lose him for nothing! Give him all our moneys!" And now a quarter of our cap is tied up in a 31 year old player averaging 14ppg/3rpg right when our youth are coming up for extensions.

I hated the Grant deal from day 1. But from Cronin's perspective, it saved his job. How so?
A day or two after that deal, Dame asked to be traded.
Imagine the optics if Grant had NOT been signed (and another team took him with a 4 year 120m deal), and THEN Dame asked to be traded. It would be framed as Cronin's fault, for not being able to keep the team together, and losing one of Dame's close friends.

So I mostly blame Dame and his timing for Grant's ridiculous contract.

[Walton1one]

The new CBA, apron restrictions, RFA are not getting major money unless they show they are elite, which Sharpe has not shown yet. You could argue CHI overpaid for Giddey @ $25m. Looking at what other, better players are getting, around $20mil should be the top limit, same for Camara ($20-25)

I look at Camara a bit differently since he made the all-defensive team (another way to say this is the top of your range).

Definitely Sharpe shouldn't exceed 20/yr on average but I am guess it will be ~22.5

I agree, I think Sharpe will get in the $20-25 range, the closer to $20 (or lower) the better. If this was a pure Cronin decision, I would say prepare yourself for north of $25mil.

Jabari Smith is an interesting comp b\c he, like Sharpe, has not really proven himself to be worth what he is getting and he just signed a 5yr deal @ $23.6/$21.7/$23.6/$25.5/$27.4, that contract averages out to just under $25mil/year, but I would say he has a more coveted size\position profile. IMO that should be the top range for Sharpe and only if you are buying the eventual breakout, which as of now is very much in doubt.

As for Camara, 3&D is a very coveted profile, so maybe if he ever was on the market as a UFA (27/28) he might get some larger than normal offers, maybe, but it is worth noting how many players similar to him have signed for far less (Jones/Reid/Washington this year for example). This offseason, teams with cap space (and willingness to spend) were in short supply, though it appears that next year that may not be the case. Maybe he is waiting until 27/28 , where b\c of his contract situation he would be a UFA at age 27?

Either way, POR cannot afford to misplay either contract situation (or Deni's for that matter) and letting them walk for nothing would be a disaster, but it sure seems that Cronin may have set himself up for the risk of that exact scenario (as Olshey did) and the only way to avoid that is to basically overpay to insure that does not happen.

[Wizenheimer]

I think a lot of you are seriously underrating the impact of the escalating salary cap; also, I think it's probably misguided to be looking at dollars/year instead of base-salary/annual-salary as a percent of the salary cap

when Simons signed his deal, his annual average salary was 20% of the salary cap; his base salary was 18% of the salary cap. At the same time, Nurkic was signed with an annual salary of 15.2% of the cap

If Sharpe gets an average salary of 20M starting next season, that would be 12% of the projected cap. Expecting that is unrealistic. Even at 25M/year that would be less than 15% of the cap....which would be a smaller percentage than Nurkic got. Think about that because for sure Sharpe's agent will

if Sharpe gets a contract equivalent to what Simons got, his annual salary would be 34M/year and his base salary would be over 30M. I don't expect Sharpe to get that, if for no other reason than Portland has the experience of seeing how they overpaid Simons. At the same time, that assumes Sharpe only incrementally improves this season. But what if he dramatically improves? When Simons got his contract, he was coming off a 4th season when he averaged 17 pts - 3 rebs - 4 asts. In his 3rd season Sharpe averaged 18.5pts - 4rebs - 3asts. And while Sharpe is not a good defender he's better than Simons has ever been.

Also, over the last 10 games of last season, most of which Simons was gone and wasn't blocking Sharpe's usage, Sharpe averaged 25pts-6rebs-5asts. Now I'm not saying Sharpe is going to improve dramatically next season, he may not, but if he does average something like 22-5-5, 30M/year is probably his floor

[Walton1one]

That doesn't seem to match many of the contracts that were signed this offseason though. There definitely seems to be a shift going on. I can't say I would be shocked if Sharpe got over $25mil or $30mil for that matter, as Cronin is the GM currently, but I will be surprised. Something in the line of Jabari Smith makes the most sense, not best for POR probably, but within the upper range of a reasonable deal.