Trade Talk (Part 17): Early Offseason Planning

[winforlose]

Well, Durant is very concerned about his public image, and regularly fights with internet trolls. If he wants to change his image and legacy, he does not have a lot of time to do it. If HOU isn’t a contender, he might want to go somewhere (maybe not MIN), where his only ring isn’t as an add on to the loaded Warriors.

https://heavy.com/sports/nba/houston-rockets/kevin-durant-open-contract-extension/

This tells me he wants real money. If he wanted ring chasing glory money, then my answer would be let’s bring him over in the offseason. But you are talking about franchise shaking money for a player whose age basically guarantees he won’t be here when Ant gets to his prime. The cost to acquire KD plus the imbalances he creates would instantly remove us from contention both the years he is here, and then leave us far worse off after he leaves. Add to this KD chose not to come here when we were pursuing him, and I say this question is more toxic than useful. The Wolves need to pivot away from KD and toward a backcourt partner for Ant not just in the short term, but for his prime.

[Domejandro]

Here are three suggestions for patching the Point-Guard problem, involving Coby White. Being honest, I don't see this as an ideal solution, but just throwing it out there.

1. Mike Conley, Rob Dillingham, and SRP's for Coby White.
2. Julius Randle and Leonard Miller for Patrick Williams and Coby White.
3. Julius Randle and Leonard Miller for Zach Collins and Coby White.

The first option is way better for Minnesota, but I don't know if Chicago would consider it (they likely want a first). The second option feels like a talent downgrade and involves taking on Patrick Williams contract ($18,000,000 for four more seasons), but fixes roster balance. The third trade also accomplishes the roster balance goal without taking on the salary.

I love Mike Conley, but swapping him for Coby White would be a game-changer for this squad. I am not even a huge Coby White guy, but just having someone who can consistently shoot the ball and still operate as a ball-handler would make things a lot easier for Anthony Edwards.

Coby White / Donte DiVincenzo / Bones Hyland
Anthony Edwards / Jaylen Clark
Jaden McDaniels / Terrence Shannon Jr. / Johnny Juzang
Julius Randle / Naz Reid / Joe Ingles
Rudy Gobert / Joan Beringer / Leonard Miller

2WP: Rocco Zikarsky, Enrique Freeman, Tristan Newton
+Space to sign one more minimum player.

Otherwise, I think Minnesota is largely stuck as-is for the season. I don't see a clean way to fix the Point-Guard problem (outside of just starting Donte DiVincenzo and pretending Point-Guard doesn't exist).

Breaking down salary tiers:
1. At the high-end, Trae Young is not getting traded by Atlanta (San Antonio owns their picks) and LaMelo Ball makes Charlotte too much money. Jrue Holiday makes too much money to trade for without including Julius Randle.
2. At the mid-level, Collin Sexton makes just a little too much to make the trade possible. Terry Rozier would have to involve Julius Randle (and he is pretty much cooked, not a starter). Josh Giddey isn't getting traded by Chicago and would require trading Julius Randle (I would consider it, depending on other components of the trade.
3. At the low-level, Lonzo Ball is probably attainable, but his health makes it feel too risky (and he isn't really a starter at this period of his career). Orlando is looking to win, so no reason for them to trade Tyus Jones.

[KGdaBom]

Here are three suggestions for patching the Point-Guard problem, involving Coby White. Being honest, I don't see this as an ideal solution, but just throwing it out there.

1. Mike Conley, Rob Dillingham, and SRP's for Coby White.
2. Julius Randle and Leonard Miller for Patrick Williams and Coby White.
3. Julius Randle and Leonard Miller for Zach Collins and Coby White.

The first option is way better for Minnesota, but I don't know if Chicago would consider it (they likely want a first). The second option feels like a talent downgrade and involves taking on Patrick Williams contract ($18,000,000 for four more seasons), but fixes roster balance. The third trade also accomplishes the roster balance goal without taking on the salary.

I love Mike Conley, but swapping him for Coby White would be a game-changer for this squad. I am not even a huge Coby White guy, but just having someone who can consistently shoot the ball and still operate as a ball-handler would make things a lot easier for Anthony Edwards.

Coby White / Donte DiVincenzo / Bones Hyland
Anthony Edwards / Jaylen Clark
Jaden McDaniels / Terrence Shannon Jr. / Johnny Juzang
Julius Randle / Naz Reid / Joe Ingles
Rudy Gobert / Joan Beringer / Leonard Miller

2WP: Rocco Zikarsky, Enrique Freeman, Tristan Newton
+Space to sign one more minimum player.

Otherwise, I think Minnesota is largely stuck as-is for the season. I don't see a clean way to fix the Point-Guard problem (outside of just starting Donte DiVincenzo and pretending Point-Guard doesn't exist).

Breaking down salary tiers:
1. At the high-end, Trae Young is not getting traded by Atlanta (San Antonio owns their picks) and LaMelo Ball makes Charlotte too much money. Jrue Holiday makes too much money to trade for without including Julius Randle.
2. At the mid-level, Collin Sexton makes just a little too much to make the trade possible. Terry Rozier would have to involve Julius Randle (and he is pretty much cooked, not a starter). Josh Giddey isn't getting traded by Chicago and would require trading Julius Randle (I would consider it, depending on other components of the trade.
3. At the low-level, Lonzo Ball is probably attainable, but his health makes it feel too risky (and he isn't really a starter at this period of his career). Orlando is looking to win, so no reason for them to trade Tyus Jones.

Julius Randle for Coby White. NO NO NO A MILLION TIMES NO.

[winforlose]

What we saw last night was Ant not wanting to make easy and obvious passes. We saw Mike largely relegated to SG, and we saw Dilly prove he should be the starting PG… for the Iowa Wolves. Donte had a bad turnover or two as well. This team will be lucky to make it back to the 2nd round of the playoffs and I doubt will advance from there. Randle is not a PG nor does he have the patience or instincts of one. Point Randle couldn’t do anything against OKC. Point Ant will always fail in favor hero mode Ant. Some of our issues revolve around needing a PG. some of them are Finch not giving players proper roles and running a proper offense. Trading Randle for a PG 1 and using Mike as PG 2 is probably the only option left. That said, Tyus was our better option, and even Monte, and TC blew it.

[m2002brian]

Teams definitely do not try things in preseason.
They are for sure running the offense like they will be game 30.

Nothing is being tested or looked at or experimented with.

Due to these facts, we should…….


FREAK OUT !!!!!!!

[BlacJacMac]

Here are three suggestions for patching the Point-Guard problem, involving Coby White. Being honest, I don't see this as an ideal solution, but just throwing it out there.

1. Mike Conley, Rob Dillingham, and SRP's for Coby White.
2. Julius Randle and Leonard Miller for Patrick Williams and Coby White.
3. Julius Randle and Leonard Miller for Zach Collins and Coby White.

The first option is way better for Minnesota, but I don't know if Chicago would consider it (they likely want a first). The second option feels like a talent downgrade and involves taking on Patrick Williams contract ($18,000,000 for four more seasons), but fixes roster balance. The third trade also accomplishes the roster balance goal without taking on the salary.

I love Mike Conley, but swapping him for Coby White would be a game-changer for this squad. I am not even a huge Coby White guy, but just having someone who can consistently shoot the ball and still operate as a ball-handler would make things a lot easier for Anthony Edwards.

Coby White / Donte DiVincenzo / Bones Hyland
Anthony Edwards / Jaylen Clark
Jaden McDaniels / Terrence Shannon Jr. / Johnny Juzang
Julius Randle / Naz Reid / Joe Ingles
Rudy Gobert / Joan Beringer / Leonard Miller

2WP: Rocco Zikarsky, Enrique Freeman, Tristan Newton
+Space to sign one more minimum player.

Otherwise, I think Minnesota is largely stuck as-is for the season. I don't see a clean way to fix the Point-Guard problem (outside of just starting Donte DiVincenzo and pretending Point-Guard doesn't exist).

Breaking down salary tiers:
1. At the high-end, Trae Young is not getting traded by Atlanta (San Antonio owns their picks) and LaMelo Ball makes Charlotte too much money. Jrue Holiday makes too much money to trade for without including Julius Randle.
2. At the mid-level, Collin Sexton makes just a little too much to make the trade possible. Terry Rozier would have to involve Julius Randle (and he is pretty much cooked, not a starter). Josh Giddey isn't getting traded by Chicago and would require trading Julius Randle (I would consider it, depending on other components of the trade.
3. At the low-level, Lonzo Ball is probably attainable, but his health makes it feel too risky (and he isn't really a starter at this period of his career). Orlando is looking to win, so no reason for them to trade Tyus Jones.

Coby is in the final year of his contract and is looking for north of 30M/year. And some stupid team will give it to him based on his shooting and perception of being a PG.

I hope we're not that team.

[ILC]

Colin Sexton is the obvious one with his connection to Ant and the fact Hornets have no use for him long term.

[winforlose]

Colin Sexton is the obvious one with his connection to Ant and the fact Hornets have no use for him long term.

That is the one PG addition that I am 99% sure makes us miss the playoffs. The last thing we need is two guys in the backcourt who don’t want to pass.

[jpatrick]

Here are three suggestions for patching the Point-Guard problem, involving Coby White. Being honest, I don't see this as an ideal solution, but just throwing it out there.

1. Mike Conley, Rob Dillingham, and SRP's for Coby White.
2. Julius Randle and Leonard Miller for Patrick Williams and Coby White.
3. Julius Randle and Leonard Miller for Zach Collins and Coby White.

The first option is way better for Minnesota, but I don't know if Chicago would consider it (they likely want a first). The second option feels like a talent downgrade and involves taking on Patrick Williams contract ($18,000,000 for four more seasons), but fixes roster balance. The third trade also accomplishes the roster balance goal without taking on the salary.

I love Mike Conley, but swapping him for Coby White would be a game-changer for this squad. I am not even a huge Coby White guy, but just having someone who can consistently shoot the ball and still operate as a ball-handler would make things a lot easier for Anthony Edwards.

Coby White / Donte DiVincenzo / Bones Hyland
Anthony Edwards / Jaylen Clark
Jaden McDaniels / Terrence Shannon Jr. / Johnny Juzang
Julius Randle / Naz Reid / Joe Ingles
Rudy Gobert / Joan Beringer / Leonard Miller

2WP: Rocco Zikarsky, Enrique Freeman, Tristan Newton
+Space to sign one more minimum player.

Otherwise, I think Minnesota is largely stuck as-is for the season. I don't see a clean way to fix the Point-Guard problem (outside of just starting Donte DiVincenzo and pretending Point-Guard doesn't exist).

Breaking down salary tiers:
1. At the high-end, Trae Young is not getting traded by Atlanta (San Antonio owns their picks) and LaMelo Ball makes Charlotte too much money. Jrue Holiday makes too much money to trade for without including Julius Randle.
2. At the mid-level, Collin Sexton makes just a little too much to make the trade possible. Terry Rozier would have to involve Julius Randle (and he is pretty much cooked, not a starter). Josh Giddey isn't getting traded by Chicago and would require trading Julius Randle (I would consider it, depending on other components of the trade.
3. At the low-level, Lonzo Ball is probably attainable, but his health makes it feel too risky (and he isn't really a starter at this period of his career). Orlando is looking to win, so no reason for them to trade Tyus Jones.

Coby is in the final year of his contract and is looking for north of 30M/year. And some stupid team will give it to him based on his shooting and perception of being a PG.

I hope we're not that team.

This is the problem unless someone like Randle or Gobert is going out, and I would not move either for White. He’s going to ask for and get 30m+ from someone. Lots of cap space teams next offseason. We are already in salary hell.

[Klomp]

Lots of cap space teams next offseason. We are already in salary hell.

We are actually not in as much hell as you might think. I'm not saying you did this, but a warning to all to NOT USE the Team Multi-Year Cap Tracker. That takes into account any and all offseason cap holds, so it looks like we are really deep in salary hell.

So currently for 2026-27, we are below not only the second apron but the first apron as well. Seven players are currently locked in on guaranteed deals. Three more will likely have 2026-27 options picked up before the end of the month. Our key internal free agents are Jaylen Clark (RFA) and Bones Hyland (UFA). We own our 1st round pick. That's 13 of the 14 or 15 spots right there. We might barely be over the first apron, but we should be well clear of the second apron without even making a cap-clearing move.

[Klomp]

I am trying to think outside the box in terms of trade machinations. Most of my thought process has long revolved around our most expendable assets being Randle, DiVincenzo, and Dillingham. However, the biggest hurdle I have struggled with is the fact that we are still over $8 million over the first apron. The key reason this matters is the ability to aggregate players. Right now, we have to either arrange trades perfectly to where every 1-for-1 swap is bringing in less salary than we are trading out or we have to make sure the incoming salary in any trade is $8,317,013 less than what is outgoing.

What I've started to think about tonight is to take advantage of trade exceptions. This keeps the same principles, but lessens the margins to worry about.

Here are current trade exceptions that could help facilitate a trade for Donte DiVincenzo:
Boston $22,531,707 - we'd have to be creative, they're only $7,842,511 below second apron
Utah $18,380,000
Miami $16,834,692
Detroit $14,104,000
Washington $13,445,122
New Orleans $13,445,122
New Orleans $13,016,200
Atlanta $13,101,561
Here are current trade exceptions that could help facilitate a trade for Rob Dillingham:
Any of the above, plus....
Washington $9,900,000
Cleveland $8,500,000
Philadelphia $7,975,000
Miami $7,763,122
Denver $6,880,985
Atlanta $6,700,000

Hypothetically, if you trade DiVincenzo into a trade exception, Randle and Dillingham could bring in as much as $41,113,305 in return salary without going back into the first apron territory. Funny enough, if you trade Rob Dillingham into a trade exception, the combined return for Randle and DiVincenzo would only have to be $1,740,893 less than their combined salary in order to avoid the second apron (which is also $41,113,305). That range covers many of the big name PGs we have discussed in this thread for a while.

To tie it all together, the $8,317,013 less than all three salaries combined is still the same $41,113,305 number you need if you are trading someone into a trade exception. So in a sense it's still the same deals, but it opens up different ways for it to come together.

I apologize, I'm aware I probably bored everyone here not named shrink....

[minimus]

TOR IN: DDV
TOR OUT: Ogbaji, Dick, Walter

Why for TOR: get a proven comboguard (they have long history with comboforwards such as Kawhi, Siakam, Anunoby + comboguards such as Lowry, FVV, Trent)

IND IN: Dillingham, Dick, Walter, MIN SRP
IND OUT: TJ McConnell

Why for IND: get young talents with potential, use gap year without Haliburton to develop Dilly in IND system

MIN IN: TJ McConnell, Ogbaji
MIN OUT: DDV, Dillingham, SRP

Why for MIN: here gets tricky. First, DDV is an underpaid, but next year will be contract year. Second, MIN needs to re-sign Jaylen Clark next summer. Finally, I believe that even without 3PT shot McConell might be the best backup PG for a unit Reid-McDaniels-TJ-Clark-McConnell

Gobert/Reid/Beringer + Rocco
Randle/McDaniels/Miller + Freeman
McDaniels/TJ/Ogbaji
Edwards/Clark/Juzang
Conley/McConnell/Hyland + Newton

After 2025-26 season: re-sign Rocco, Clark and Ogbaji. Draft PG with FRP

Gobert/Reid/Beringer + Rocco
Randle/McDaniels/Reid
McDaniels/TJ/Ogbaji
Edwards/Clark/???
McConnell/FRP/???

[winforlose]

TOR IN: DDV
TOR OUT: Ogbaji, Dick, Walter

Why for TOR: get a proven comboguard (they have long history with comboforwards such as Kawhi, Siakam, Anunoby + comboguards such as Lowry, FVV, Trent)

IND IN: Dillingham, Dick, Walter, MIN SRP
IND OUT: TJ McConnell

Why for IND: get young talents with potential, use gap year without Haliburton to develop Dilly in IND system

MIN IN: TJ McConnell, Ogbaji
MIN OUT: DDV, Dillingham, SRP

Why for MIN: here gets tricky. First, DDV is an underpaid, but next year will be contract year. Second, MIN needs to re-sign Jaylen Clark next summer. Finally, I believe that even without 3PT shot McConell might be the best backup PG for a unit Reid-McDaniels-TJ-Clark-McConnell

Gobert/Reid/Beringer + Rocco
Randle/McDaniels/Miller + Freeman
McDaniels/TJ/Ogbaji
Edwards/Clark/Juzang
Conley/McConnell/Hyland + Newton

After 2025-26 season: re-sign Rocco, Clark and Ogbaji. Draft PG with FRP

Gobert/Reid/Beringer + Rocco
Randle/McDaniels/Reid
McDaniels/TJ/Ogbaji
Edwards/Clark/???
McConnell/FRP/???

1. TJ got hurt in our preseason game. Looked like either a groin or hamstring. We could not afford to move DDV without getting a healthy PG back.

2. TJ’s lack of range makes him a poor fit within our offense. Especially if he plays with Rudy. Also Jaden and Julius are not consistent from deep. This could easily go very, very wrong.

3. Ant takes the ball out of Mike’s hands a lot. If this happens with TJ, TJ has no function on the floor. Mike is at least a 3 point threat and therefore a de facto SG. Unless Finch is going to seriously commit to running a proper offense through a PG, then Ant’s backcourt partner needs to be valuable both on and off ball.

[frankenwolf]

Why for MIN: here gets tricky. First, DDV is an underpaid, but next year will be contract year. Second, MIN needs to re-sign Jaylen Clark next summer. Finally, I believe that even without 3PT shot McConell might be the best backup PG for a unit Reid-McDaniels-TJ-Clark-McConnell

After 2025-26 season: re-sign Rocco, Clark and Ogbaji. Draft PG with FRP

Minimus, The Wolves are entering Ant's prime. In my opinion, either Dilly is the future PG of this team or we need to trade for an established PG, or one that has a couple of years in the Association that may be stuck behind an established starter. This PG HAS to shoot the three and play decent defense. Do I know who that is? Heck no, but if I was in the Wolves FO, I'm sure I could create a list.

[shrink]

We are actually not in as much hell as you might think. I'm not saying you did this, but a warning to all to NOT USE the Team Multi-Year Cap Tracker. That takes into account any and all offseason cap holds, so it looks like we are really deep in salary hell.

If we fail to reach the WCF this year, I expect Tim Connelly to move the team’s payroll, not just under the first apron, but under the luxury threshold. This will give the team a little breathing room as they face a repeater tax that was made more painful in the last CBA.

I suspect only Ant and Jaden are off the table in moves to reduce team payroll.

[Klomp]

If we fail to reach the WCF this year, I expect Tim Connelly to move the team’s payroll, not just under the first apron, but under the luxury threshold. This will give the team a little breathing room as they face a repeater tax that was made more painful in the last CBA.

I suspect only Ant and Jaden are off the table in moves to reduce team payroll.

I strongly disagree with this take. It would be completely antithetical to everything the front office and new ownership has said and done.

[shrink]

If we fail to reach the WCF this year, I expect Tim Connelly to move the team’s payroll, not just under the first apron, but under the luxury threshold. This will give the team a little breathing room as they face a repeater tax that was made more painful in the last CBA.

I suspect only Ant and Jaden are off the table in moves to reduce team payroll.

I strongly disagree with this take. It would be completely antithetical to everything the front office and new ownership has said and done.

The repeater tax was given greater teeth in the last CBA, and that comes into effect in the 2025-26 season. They can’t touch Steve Ballmer, but even he is clearing the books in 2027. Other owners that are far richer than ARod and Lore are already figuring out how to duck under the luxury threshold, and I wouldn’t blame our owners for following suit. The rules were put into place so that teams need to cycle through short periods where they pay to go far over the lux, then they have to financially retrench.

Examples of Tax Bracket Changes (per dollar over the tax level)

2023-24 (new CBA applied for 2023-24 and 2024-25):
200% - 300% over the tax level: $3.50 for every $1 over the tax line.
300% - 400% over the tax level: $4.25 for every $1 over the tax line.

Beginning with the 2025-26 season:
200% - 300% over the tax level: $5.50 for every $1 over the tax line.
300% - 400% over the tax level: $6.75 for every $1 over the tax line.

The point here is that the NBA doesn’t want teams to simply ignore the luxury tax for years on end. In the past, even adding a $5 mil player for teams over the 200% barrier would cost $22.5 mil. Now that $5 mil player will cost $32.5 mil. At some point, it just isn’t cost-effective - you don’t get $32.5 mil worth of value out of a player who’s market value is $5 mil.

[Klomp]

The point here is that the NBA doesn’t want teams to simply ignore the luxury tax for years on end.

They aren't ignoring it. That's why they made it a priority to stay away from the second apron, which is an added luxury tax penalty.

Teams will determine if they feel it's worth it to stay in the luxury tax. Right now, a move like recklessly slashing costs in the name of completely leaving the luxury tax could drop a team from Top 2-4 in the West to completely out of the playoffs. Playoff revenues help offset things like luxury tax payments. It's all part of what each individual team has to weigh. Right now, I personally do not think it would be a wise decision.

[Slim Tubby]

Why for MIN: here gets tricky. First, DDV is an underpaid, but next year will be contract year. Second, MIN needs to re-sign Jaylen Clark next summer. Finally, I believe that even without 3PT shot McConell might be the best backup PG for a unit Reid-McDaniels-TJ-Clark-McConnell

After 2025-26 season: re-sign Rocco, Clark and Ogbaji. Draft PG with FRP

Minimus, The Wolves are entering Ant's prime. In my opinion, either Dilly is the future PG of this team or we need to trade for an established PG, or one that has a couple of years in the Association that may be stuck behind an established starter. This PG HAS to shoot the three and play decent defense. Do I know who that is? Heck no, but if I was in the Wolves FO, I'm sure I could create a list.

Cason Wallace is the guy I want but OKC is not moving him and certainly not to a WC rival.

If BOS struggled without Tatum, I'd love to make a run at Derrick White. Trying to find a franchise PG for the Wolves is like the Vikings trying to find their franchise QB.

Sent from my N152DL using RealGM mobile app

[Klomp]

What would need to be added to trade Dillingham for Devin Carter?