Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #13-#14 Spots

[f4p]

So my first two votes are going to be 2005 Nash and 2005 Ginobili, since those were the two from my last ballot that didn’t make it in.

I am pretty sure that my next two votes will be for 2018 Harden and 2008 Chris Paul. I’m not yet sure what order those two will be in. I think I’m leaning towards having Harden ahead of Chris Paul. But I don’t feel certain about it. The weird thing that’s confounding to me for that particular comparison is that the thing that most impresses me about 2018 Harden is how well the Rockets did in the regular season, and in particular how well they did in the games Harden and Chris Paul both played (I think it was like a 74-win pace). I find that to be really impressive from Harden, but it feels like a weird thing to rely on to put him above Chris Paul in particular, since Chris Paul is part of those same numbers.

so while their regular season results are amazing, i'm not sure why the focus on it over the playoffs when the playoffs are also amazing. in the regular season, the rockets were 44-5 in games the two played with a +11.0 SRS (i think +11.5 MOV and -0.5 SRS opponents but don't quote me on the decimals). in the 1st round, the rockets were +9.3 against a +2.4 minnesota team, for a +11.7 PSRS. in the 2nd round, they were +10.3 against a +4.5 utah team, for a +14.8 PSRS. and then they played 5 games completely even (-1.4 outside of garbage time) against a warriors team that was either +15.4 in their 7 other series in 2017/2018 or, if you want to focus on 2018, +13 in their other 3 series with half their games played without steph (so probably still about +15 when healthy). in other words, the rockets held almost even with something like a +15 team after averaging about a +13 in the first 2 rounds. winning 80% of their games against +2.4/+4.5 opponents seems at least as good as winning 90% of their games against average nba teams and then almost beating the warriors is amazing. if anything, their postseason SRS indicators are even better than their regular season indicators. from all angles, the 2018 rockets were just historically dominant when healthy, no matter what sansterre's list might want to say about it.

[lessthanjake]

So my first two votes are going to be 2005 Nash and 2005 Ginobili, since those were the two from my last ballot that didn’t make it in.

I am pretty sure that my next two votes will be for 2018 Harden and 2008 Chris Paul. I’m not yet sure what order those two will be in. I think I’m leaning towards having Harden ahead of Chris Paul. But I don’t feel certain about it. The weird thing that’s confounding to me for that particular comparison is that the thing that most impresses me about 2018 Harden is how well the Rockets did in the regular season, and in particular how well they did in the games Harden and Chris Paul both played (I think it was like a 74-win pace). I find that to be really impressive from Harden, but it feels like a weird thing to rely on to put him above Chris Paul in particular, since Chris Paul is part of those same numbers.

so while their regular season results are amazing, i'm not sure why the focus on it over the playoffs when the playoffs are also amazing. in the regular season, the rockets were 44-5 in games the two played with a +11.0 SRS (i think +11.5 MOV and -0.5 SRS opponents but don't quote me on the decimals). in the 1st round, the rockets were +9.3 against a +2.4 minnesota team, for a +11.7 PSRS. in the 2nd round, they were +10.3 against a +4.5 utah team, for a +14.8 PSRS. and then they played 5 games completely even (-1.4 outside of garbage time) against a warriors team that was either +15.4 in their 7 other series in 2017/2018 or, if you want to focus on 2018, +13 in their other 3 series with half their games played without steph (so probably still about +15 when healthy). in other words, the rockets held almost even with something like a +15 team after averaging about a +13 in the first 2 rounds. winning 80% of their games against +2.4/+4.5 opponents seems at least as good as winning 90% of their games against average nba teams and then almost beating the warriors is amazing. if anything, their postseason SRS indicators are even better than their regular season indicators. from all angles, the 2018 rockets were just historically dominant when healthy, no matter what sansterre's list might want to say about it.

Yeah, I don’t think that their playoff performance is inconsistent with their great regular season performance, for essentially the reasons you mention. But it’s not like they won a series against a particularly good team, so their playoff run is not really the headline achievement to me. They basically had a couple series against two solid-but-not-great opponents that they easily beat, and then barely lost to a juggernaut. It’s enough that I think it gives us indication that the regular season stuff wasn’t a fluke. Which definitely does matter. But I also wouldn’t look at those playoff games in a vacuum and think it provided good reason by itself to extol a player for those team achievements this high in the project. So, to me, it’s more about the regular season achievements being astounding (particularly when they were healthy) and me not feeling like the playoffs indicate that the regular season stuff was a fluke. One could also conceptualize it as the playoffs increasing the overall sample some and that overall sample looking great.

In any event, none of this really resolves the issue of the 2018 Rockets’ team success being hard to really use as a differentiator between Harden and Chris Paul in particular, since Chris Paul was an integral part of the 2018 Rockets’ success (indeed, the most impressive number IMO is the record-when-Chris-Paul-played thing). The other thing is that Chris Paul generally has better impact numbers than Harden in their careers. Ultimately, I’m still leaning Harden because (1) my eye test likes him a bit more; and (2) even if Chris Paul was on the 2018 Rockets, I’m not picking that as his peak year and therefore peak Harden did have more team achievement in my view than peak CP3. It all feels a bit murky though.

[Cavsfansince84]

I'll tell you something that's sort of interesting to think about is if the last minute of the 2016 finals goes differently and Draymond had been named fmvp on the strength of his game 7, how high does he go in this project then? It's so fitting really that that is his peak year. He simultaneously was a huge part of a 73 win team, had an atg game 7 in the finals yet at the same time may have cost them the title with his inability to control himself. That's him in a nutshell. He was also really good in the Portland series where they were missing Steph that year.

[One_and_Done]

1. KD (2014 I guess?)

2. Luka (2022)
3. CP3 (2008)
4. Nash (2007, 05, 06 - I go back and forth on 05 vs 07)

HM: Butler, Harden, T-Mac, AD.

We have ample evidence KD had a huge impact on winning, even for non-stacked teams.

In 2014 for example, the Thunder were 25-11 in the games Westbrook missed, thanks to KD.

His Brooklyn time is a bit of a mess to assess, because of all the stuff that happened involving availability of guys, but we can see in 21 the team was 23-12 with KD, and only 25-24 without him. Similarly, the Nets in 22 were 36-19 with him, and only 8-19 without him. We also saw KD carry the Nets in the 21 playoffs, almost past the Bucks, with Kyrie and Harden both going down with injuries. If KDs toe isn’t on the line, the Nets likely win the championship this year largely on the back of KD.

In KD’s Phoenix tenure, despite being past his prime, the win-loss still holds up well for KD. From 23 to 25 the Suns were 85-60 with him, and 15-30 without him. The contrast was stark.

But hey, some computer formulas that, by their nature, are unreliable at accurately measuring value don’t agree, so I guess forget all that other stuff.

I found the 3 names after KD to be harder. I ultimately think Luka and CP3 gave the biggest lift. I also go back and forth on CP3 v.s Nash, but for now I’m going with Paul.

In terms of Luka, the argument is pretty clear. The guy basically carried a fairly solid-ish support cast to the finals, and only lost because his team was totally outgunned (and because he was hurt). If Luka had been healthier in 2024 I’d have that as the year to vote for him, but he was sufficiently banged up in the playoffs for it to be a demerit. I’ll take the younger and springier Luka from 2022, who “only” got them to the WCFs.

In terms of skillset, Luka is way above guys like Kobe. He runs an offense, which Kobe can’t, and he can score and set up guys in a way that is levels above Kobe. Ok, Luka’s defence isn’t good, but you can get away with that when you’re point guard. Kobe’s D was overrated and average after 2004 anyway.

Looking at numbers, it’s not even close.

Luka 22 RS: 40/13/12 per 100, on 571 TS%
Kobe RS 09: 38/7/7 per 100, on 561 TS%

Luka 22 PS: 45/14/9 per 100, on 577 TS%
Kobe PS 09: 39/7/7 per 100, on 564 TS%

It’s not even close. Luka is a guy who will elevate a bad team more, and raise the ceiling of a good team higher as well.

At this point it’s somewhat redundant to explain how Kobe is overrated on offense, but I’ll give it another crack.

Let’s look at just 2009 CP3 v.s 09 Kobe as an example. Paul’s per 100 numbers are particularly impressive this year; 32/8/16 on 599 TS%, with a 124 Ortg, and justifiably finishing 6th in DPOY voting

Now, if we took a simplistic approach, and assumed assists are worth 2.4 points each, then prima facie CP3 added 70+ pp100 to his team, compared to 54pp100 for Kobe. This is a simplistic approach obviously, but it’s intended to try and demonstrate how much more there is to generating offense than “ppg!”.

In reality CP3 was generating even more points of course, because of things like hockey assists, and because he’s scoring at better efficiency, or because he’s putting his team mates in their sweet spots so they can shoot at better efficiency, etc, but even by a flat numbers comp was CP3 waaayyy ahead. CP3 even rebounds more per 100 than Kobe in 09. He looks better than Kobe in everything really. The reason CP3’s teams often have great offensive ratings is because setting guys up for easy and efficient baskets is often more important than actually scoring at so-so efficiency.

Ultimately, I haven’t gone with 09 Paul, because I think he was better and healthier in 08. I don’t care that it was one of his earlier years, I think it was his best. CP3 is a guy who can carry your team more too. He’s just more impactful than Kobe. There are other years you can take for CP3, but 2008 is as good a choice as any.

I’d like to be voting for Butler #4, but so far nobody else seems to remember his heroics from 3 separate playoff runs in 20, 22, and 23.

[homecourtloss]

Looking at KD, CP3, Harden, Embiid, Nash, and Manu here. Despite narratives, you have players here (i.e., Harden and Embiid) who have been impactful in the playoffs and the regular season. While I tend to hesitate on Manu due to minutes, he certainly has to be looked at as does Draymond soon enough.



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KiGykvmgXmDv5ibAtobHui-DfjjRhpBueHrJMD8v3vk/htmlview

[70sFan]

1. KD (2014 I guess?)

2. Luka (2022)
3. CP3 (2008)
4. Nash (2007, 05, 06 - I go back and forth on 05 vs 07)

HM: Butler, Harden, T-Mac, AD.

We have ample evidence KD had a huge impact on winning, even for non-stacked teams.

In 2014 for example, the Thunder were 25-11 in the games Westbrook missed, thanks to KD.

His Brooklyn time is a bit of a mess to assess, because of all the stuff that happened involving availability of guys, but we can see in 21 the team was 23-12 with KD, and only 25-24 without him. Similarly, the Nets in 22 were 36-19 with him, and only 8-19 without him. We also saw KD carry the Nets in the 21 playoffs, almost past the Bucks, with Kyrie and Harden both going down with injuries. If KDs toe isn’t on the line, the Nets likely win the championship this year largely on the back of KD.

In KD’s Phoenix tenure, despite being past his prime, the win-loss still holds up well for KD. From 23 to 25 the Suns were 85-60 with him, and 15-30 without him. The contrast was stark.

But hey, some computer formulas that, by their nature, are unreliable at accurately measuring value don’t agree, so I guess forget all that other stuff.

I found the 3 names after KD to be harder. I ultimately think Luka and CP3 gave the biggest lift. I also go back and forth on CP3 v.s Nash, but for now I’m going with Paul.

In terms of Luka, the argument is pretty clear. The guy basically carried a fairly solid-ish support cast to the finals, and only lost because his team was totally outgunned (and because he was hurt). If Luka had been healthier in 2024 I’d have that as the year to vote for him, but he was sufficiently banged up in the playoffs for it to be a demerit. I’ll take the younger and springier Luka from 2022, who “only” got them to the WCFs.

In terms of skillset, Luka is way above guys like Kobe. He runs an offense, which Kobe can’t, and he can score and set up guys in a way that is levels above Kobe. Ok, Luka’s defence isn’t good, but you can get away with that when you’re point guard. Kobe’s D was overrated and average after 2004 anyway.

Looking at numbers, it’s not even close.

Luka 22 RS: 40/13/12 per 100, on 571 TS%
Kobe RS 09: 38/7/7 per 100, on 561 TS%

Luka 22 PS: 45/14/9 per 100, on 577 TS%
Kobe PS 09: 39/7/7 per 100, on 564 TS%

It’s not even close. Luka is a guy who will elevate a bad team more, and raise the ceiling of a good team higher as well.

At this point it’s somewhat redundant to explain how Kobe is overrated on offense, but I’ll give it another crack.

Let’s look at just 2009 CP3 v.s 09 Kobe as an example. Paul’s per 100 numbers are particularly impressive this year; 32/8/16 on 599 TS%, with a 124 Ortg, and justifiably finishing 6th in DPOY voting

Now, if we took a simplistic approach, and assumed assists are worth 2.4 points each, then prima facie CP3 added 70+ pp100 to his team, compared to 54pp100 for Kobe. This is a simplistic approach obviously, but it’s intended to try and demonstrate how much more there is to generating offense than “ppg!”.

In reality CP3 was generating even more points of course, because of things like hockey assists, and because he’s scoring at better efficiency, or because he’s putting his team mates in their sweet spots so they can shoot at better efficiency, etc, but even by a flat numbers comp was CP3 waaayyy ahead. CP3 even rebounds more per 100 than Kobe in 09. He looks better than Kobe in everything really. The reason CP3’s teams often have great offensive ratings is because setting guys up for easy and efficient baskets is often more important than actually scoring at so-so efficiency.

Ultimately, I haven’t gone with 09 Paul, because I think he was better and healthier in 08. I don’t care that it was one of his earlier years, I think it was his best. CP3 is a guy who can carry your team more too. He’s just more impactful than Kobe. There are other years you can take for CP3, but 2008 is as good a choice as any.

I’d like to be voting for Butler #4, but so far nobody else seems to remember his heroics from 3 separate playoff runs in 20, 22, and 23.

Kobe is already voted in, just move on and stop telling everybody how the next 10 players are better than him. You can focus on still relevant comparisons instead.

[iggymcfrack]

1. KD (2014 I guess?)

2. Luka (2022)
3. CP3 (2008)
4. Nash (2007, 05, 06 - I go back and forth on 05 vs 07)

HM: Butler, Harden, T-Mac, AD.

We have ample evidence KD had a huge impact on winning, even for non-stacked teams.

In 2014 for example, the Thunder were 25-11 in the games Westbrook missed, thanks to KD.

His Brooklyn time is a bit of a mess to assess, because of all the stuff that happened involving availability of guys, but we can see in 21 the team was 23-12 with KD, and only 25-24 without him. Similarly, the Nets in 22 were 36-19 with him, and only 8-19 without him. We also saw KD carry the Nets in the 21 playoffs, almost past the Bucks, with Kyrie and Harden both going down with injuries. If KDs toe isn’t on the line, the Nets likely win the championship this year largely on the back of KD.

In KD’s Phoenix tenure, despite being past his prime, the win-loss still holds up well for KD. From 23 to 25 the Suns were 85-60 with him, and 15-30 without him. The contrast was stark.

But hey, some computer formulas that, by their nature, are unreliable at accurately measuring value don’t agree, so I guess forget all that other stuff.

I found the 3 names after KD to be harder. I ultimately think Luka and CP3 gave the biggest lift. I also go back and forth on CP3 v.s Nash, but for now I’m going with Paul.

In terms of Luka, the argument is pretty clear. The guy basically carried a fairly solid-ish support cast to the finals, and only lost because his team was totally outgunned (and because he was hurt). If Luka had been healthier in 2024 I’d have that as the year to vote for him, but he was sufficiently banged up in the playoffs for it to be a demerit. I’ll take the younger and springier Luka from 2022, who “only” got them to the WCFs.

In terms of skillset, Luka is way above guys like Kobe. He runs an offense, which Kobe can’t, and he can score and set up guys in a way that is levels above Kobe. Ok, Luka’s defence isn’t good, but you can get away with that when you’re point guard. Kobe’s D was overrated and average after 2004 anyway.

Looking at numbers, it’s not even close.

Luka 22 RS: 40/13/12 per 100, on 571 TS%
Kobe RS 09: 38/7/7 per 100, on 561 TS%

Luka 22 PS: 45/14/9 per 100, on 577 TS%
Kobe PS 09: 39/7/7 per 100, on 564 TS%

It’s not even close. Luka is a guy who will elevate a bad team more, and raise the ceiling of a good team higher as well.

At this point it’s somewhat redundant to explain how Kobe is overrated on offense, but I’ll give it another crack.

Let’s look at just 2009 CP3 v.s 09 Kobe as an example. Paul’s per 100 numbers are particularly impressive this year; 32/8/16 on 599 TS%, with a 124 Ortg, and justifiably finishing 6th in DPOY voting

Now, if we took a simplistic approach, and assumed assists are worth 2.4 points each, then prima facie CP3 added 70+ pp100 to his team, compared to 54pp100 for Kobe. This is a simplistic approach obviously, but it’s intended to try and demonstrate how much more there is to generating offense than “ppg!”.

In reality CP3 was generating even more points of course, because of things like hockey assists, and because he’s scoring at better efficiency, or because he’s putting his team mates in their sweet spots so they can shoot at better efficiency, etc, but even by a flat numbers comp was CP3 waaayyy ahead. CP3 even rebounds more per 100 than Kobe in 09. He looks better than Kobe in everything really. The reason CP3’s teams often have great offensive ratings is because setting guys up for easy and efficient baskets is often more important than actually scoring at so-so efficiency.

Ultimately, I haven’t gone with 09 Paul, because I think he was better and healthier in 08. I don’t care that it was one of his earlier years, I think it was his best. CP3 is a guy who can carry your team more too. He’s just more impactful than Kobe. There are other years you can take for CP3, but 2008 is as good a choice as any.

I’d like to be voting for Butler #4, but so far nobody else seems to remember his heroics from 3 separate playoff runs in 20, 22, and 23.

Not even a consideration for Draymond? In the season where he shot 39% from three in the regular season and 37% in the playoffs? When he had the highest plus/minus and on/off of all-time? When he had a higher xRAPM than anyone left except CP3? When he averaged almost 20 PPG when Steph was hurt and he led the Warriors to a 6-2 record in the playoffs? When he had the best scoring Game 7 in the history of the NBA Finals? He still doesn’t get consideration over Butler or T-Mac?

Personally, I’m going CP3, Manu, Dray, AD in that order at this point.

[trelos6]

Since by my estimation, there aren’t too many bigs left which will end up in the top 25, I thought I’d bring up a few names.

At the top of the list is Anthony Davis in 2020. With a single season xRAPM of 6.3, the years on either side were injury riddled, thus we don’t get a great multi year sample. However, what we do get is a 27 pp75 +4.5 rTS% scorer in the regular season. 76% shooting at the rim, AD is one of the best lob catchers and play finishers of the era. Not to mention his complimentary outside shooting game. In the playoffs he upped his scoring and efficiency to 28, +10%. He shot an incredible 82% at the rim, and 38% behind the arc. Sure the 2020 Lakers had some great defensive pieces in KCP, Danny Green, an Old Dwight Howard, Caruso, even LeBron was providing some defensive support, but AD was the anchor. And this was a -4.3 defense in the regular season. AD’s mobility on defense and massive wingspan puts him up there with the best defenders of the era. There was a real argument that Davis should have won FMVP over LeBron, and 2020 LeBron was a great season, perhaps one of the best guard seasons of all time.

Dwight Howard in 2011. There was a few years at the turn of the decade where Dwight Howard was arguably second only to LeBron James. An efficient scorer, albeit with a limited bag. 24 pp75 on +7.5rTS%. Elite defensively, he anchored a -5.3 rDrtg in the regular season in 2011. In the playoffs, he was 23, +11%. Albeit one series vs the Hawks. He was impressive in the 2009 post season, and an absolute menace defensively in the 2010 playoffs. He doesn’t have any passing chops, though did generate a ton of rim pressure and got to the line 15 times a game in that 3 year playoff stretch. Converting these FTA into points, was a challenge for Dwight, not unlike Shaq.

Alonzo Mourning in 2000. 25, +7% in the regular season, anchoring a -3.1 rDrtg. Post season was 27, +5%. I think he’s just not as good as Dwight as an offensive or defensive player. Still, he was arguably the 2nd best player in 2000 behind Shaq, thus deserves a mention.

Draymond Green in 2016. Terrific passer. Great synergy with Steph. Wasn’t inept as a scorer, with 14.6 pp75 on +4.6% rTS. In the playoffs he was at 15, and just over league average. Amazing defensive quarterbacking, and he was rather capable as a floor spacer in 2015-17. 2014-16 has him at +8.8 RAPM, leading the league across the 2 year sample.

Joel Embiid in 2023. 35 pp75 on 7.4% rTS!!! But Joel doesn’t ever put together anything decent in the post season. 2024 was even better, and then he got hurt. I think he deserves a look in the top 25, but it’s just so hard between his poor post season play and frequent injuries. Still, a fantastic regular season.

Ben Wallace in 2004. One of the best defensive seasons of all time, paired with one of the most awful offensive seasons of all time. At least he provided some offensive rebounding value.

Edit: of course Zo doesn’t qualify for this list. Completely blanked.

[70sFan]

Alonzo Mourning in 2000. 25, +7% in the regular season, anchoring a -3.1 rDrtg. Post season was 27, +5%. I think he’s just not as good as Dwight as an offensive or defensive player. Still, he was arguably the 2nd best player in 2000 behind Shaq, thus deserves a mention.

The projects starts at 2000/01 season, so Mourning doesn't make it.

[eminence]

I understand that "great" will invoke/integrate what might loosely be called non standard-of-play/narrative factors. Personally my preference is not to because (to me) it's a less pure, less interesting and less like-for-like conversation. To me it's not that different from if someone wants to argue Pete Maravich is "greater" than, say, Calvin Natt because he's more iconic. People can disagree and even within narrow confines of player goodness/impact on probability of winning ... it's not simple.


Regarding 20% CORP ... I may very well be wrong, or misunderstanding but I'm not sure if it's being used correctly here and I'm (and I'm even less confident here) not sure the AI math is correct either.

On part one ... these things only make sense for calculating probability if the sum is 100% or 1. That would be the case if you did teams' championship of title. It already gets complicated at player level because teams carry different numbers of players over a season ... an oversimplified version that sort of still fits is "chance of NBA title given player NBA starter" (obviously starters change, players worthy of measure come off the bench, but trying to keep things simple). My guess is that isn't the case with Championship Over Replacement Player. I'm not sure if/how the math should stack up in this case but I don't think it would be to 100%.

Quickly eyeballing the Backpicks 40 graphs I don't think it is the case anecdotally for a given year. Looking at 2004 and eyeballing the guys from the top 30 of ... I got

James 0.03
O'Neal 0.14
Duncan 0.19
Garnett 0.26
Bryant 0.12
Nowitzki 0.11
Nash 0.09
Wade 0.05
Miller 0.03
Already we're at 1.02.
I may be wrong in the numbers given and there are some players who might be below replacement player that add negatives ... broadly, I think this supports me that CORP isn't intended sum to 100% or be a raw "player probability of title".

15 players per team, CORP should (theoretically) sum to ~15 for the league.

That's if we took 'replacement player' as the best player not in the league. It's entirely possible it could be set to 12 or 10 or whatever total league CORP by moving the baseline of 'replacement player'. I'm not certain what # Ben used, but that's the concept.

[Top10alltime]

1. KD (2014 I guess?)

2. Luka (2022)
3. CP3 (2008)
4. Nash (2007, 05, 06 - I go back and forth on 05 vs 07)

HM: Butler, Harden, T-Mac, AD.

We have ample evidence KD had a huge impact on winning, even for non-stacked teams.

In 2014 for example, the Thunder were 25-11 in the games Westbrook missed, thanks to KD.

His Brooklyn time is a bit of a mess to assess, because of all the stuff that happened involving availability of guys, but we can see in 21 the team was 23-12 with KD, and only 25-24 without him. Similarly, the Nets in 22 were 36-19 with him, and only 8-19 without him. We also saw KD carry the Nets in the 21 playoffs, almost past the Bucks, with Kyrie and Harden both going down with injuries. If KDs toe isn’t on the line, the Nets likely win the championship this year largely on the back of KD.

In KD’s Phoenix tenure, despite being past his prime, the win-loss still holds up well for KD. From 23 to 25 the Suns were 85-60 with him, and 15-30 without him. The contrast was stark.

But hey, some computer formulas that, by their nature, are unreliable at accurately measuring value don’t agree, so I guess forget all that other stuff.

I found the 3 names after KD to be harder. I ultimately think Luka and CP3 gave the biggest lift. I also go back and forth on CP3 v.s Nash, but for now I’m going with Paul.

In terms of Luka, the argument is pretty clear. The guy basically carried a fairly solid-ish support cast to the finals, and only lost because his team was totally outgunned (and because he was hurt). If Luka had been healthier in 2024 I’d have that as the year to vote for him, but he was sufficiently banged up in the playoffs for it to be a demerit. I’ll take the younger and springier Luka from 2022, who “only” got them to the WCFs.

In terms of skillset, Luka is way above guys like Kobe. He runs an offense, which Kobe can’t, and he can score and set up guys in a way that is levels above Kobe. Ok, Luka’s defence isn’t good, but you can get away with that when you’re point guard. Kobe’s D was overrated and average after 2004 anyway.

Looking at numbers, it’s not even close.

Luka 22 RS: 40/13/12 per 100, on 571 TS%
Kobe RS 09: 38/7/7 per 100, on 561 TS%

Luka 22 PS: 45/14/9 per 100, on 577 TS%
Kobe PS 09: 39/7/7 per 100, on 564 TS%

It’s not even close. Luka is a guy who will elevate a bad team more, and raise the ceiling of a good team higher as well.

Luka isn't better than Embiid, there is actually no argument for Luka over Embiid.

When you factor in the game, and start analyzing players while their playing basketball, it's pretty clear Embiid is definitely in that top 10, but now here I am arguing for him, because realGM hates Embiid and loves Greek.

Luka off-ball is terrible in 2022, and his defense as well. If you think Luka > Embiid for peaks, it proves you have no analysis of basketball outside raw box-score, cherrypick, have never picked up a basketball in your life.

Luka before 2024 (literally only year you should pick LOL) wasn't a good HC player, and had very few counters at this time. His playmaking (even his PnR alone, and his passing bag) had leaped a huge level in 2024, it just wasn't good enough in 2022 yet.

As for Embiid, I presented his case before

Embiid should already be here. It's a crime everyone underrated him, even though he had injuries to add context to the playoffs.....

Embiid should probably have gone #7, in place of Giannis (throw him outside the top 20, he's not versatile at all and his skillset neutralized against elite personnel).

Embiid is an elite scorer everywhere, his timing while shooting the jump shots is more valuable to an offense than extremely volatile tough shot-making, he is an elite shot-creator and can be useful in offensive systems (Like with Harden or Maxey). Unlike most big men, he doesn't have a weakness in face-up game. He is an ATG mid-range scorer, and a great post scorer (great mismatch hunter too). Elite footwork and strength makes him a force there. He is an amazing foul-drawer and punishes defenses for it too. ATG scorer at least.

As a playmaker, he has very good processing actually, and is at least a great playmaker because he has great rim pressure, as a roll man he is providing advantages for his team. As a screener, he's a great one. His passing arsenal is very good, bounce passing, pocket passing, overhead passing, PnR or off of screen, and a great transition playmaker when moving. Amazing decision making. Great playmaker at least.

Now, on the defensive end, he is elite, or maybe fringe ATG at defense. Very big with good mobility, an elite rim protector and as an interior defender overall. Pretty switchable, a good on-ball defender and help defender. Good perimeter defense, and ATG drop defense. Anchors top 5 defenses while on the floor too.


Embiid should clearly have been here by now, but people hate him for some reason. They put guys like Shai (bruh) and Giannis (terrible takes) over him.

Embiid is clearly the pick, and if there's another round without Embiid, I don't know what to say about realGM. Must be a group of anti-Embiid people.


Anyways, after Embiid, we could pick people like KD, CP3, Kobe, or Harden. Nash and Dirk are in contention too.

Unfortunately, I'm not voting here, so I am not interested in actually doing some damage or something like that. Also, people here are usually stubborn and close-minded. Many people are hostile (I'm not directing this at anyone, but these people know who they are).

So, here's that Embiid case. I don't think you could debunk anything about that.

Christ bless you all anyways, God loves you

Embiid CLEARS Luka

[70sFan]

I think it shouldn't be hard to get that people won't push Embiid that high when he doesn't have a single postseason worth of mentioning in this project.

[eminence]

CP3/Tatum repeating in my top two spots. Deciding between Nash/Harden/Draymond/Howard for spots 3/4.

[Joao Saraiva]

KD is an easy #1 for me here.

After that there are a bunch of names I need to sift through, like Luka, Harden, Nash, CP3, T-Mac, AD and J.Butler.

Why no Embiid? Ridiculous, RealGM is full of anti Embiid stans. He should clearly have been in the top 10, but either people don't watch Embiid, or the put 0 value to the RS and for the reason of hate.

Playoffs matter when people evaluate. And so far Embiid didn't have a great run, so that obviously hurts him. Also availability matters: he has only 22 or 23 as reasonable years for people to pick. And in both years, while being very good regular seasons he dropped a LOT in the playoffs. That why he can't come over guys like Giannis, Curry, Bron, Dirk... even if he has a better RS or a comparable one he simply doesn't have what he takes to compete with the other guys playoff wise.

How better do you think Embiid was than Kevin Durant peak wise to justify having him above KD right now? Even if you think Embiid was better than KD in the RS (and there is legit argument for that) it can't be by such a margin that justifies us having him above KD.

[Joao Saraiva]

I think I'll go with Kevin Durant, Luka Doncic, Dwight Howard and Steve Nash. Just have to think about the order to be honest.

[f4p]

CP3/Tatum repeating in my top two spots. Deciding between Nash/Harden/Draymond/Howard for spots 3/4.

tatum over harden seems wild (or over nash frankly). put harden on the 2024 celtics and it's hard to imagine them losing a playoff game with the massive boost to efficiency (tatum was somehow at 54.9 TS% despite having the best 3 point attack maybe ever around him and one of the weakest groups of opponents ever) and much better creation. i don't care how much someone wants to talk about tatum's defense. it literally wouldn't matter stacked up against the offensive improvements.

even if i take tatum's best numbers from the 2022-2024 playoffs (i assume you are picking one of those years?) and only compare it to harden playoffs where he played at least 10 games (so no big numbers from 1st rounds or anything), tatum wouldn't crack harden's top 5 in PER, WS48, or BPM and would be 7th in TS+ and would be 8th in on/off (out of 10). and that's cherry picking tatum's best number from those 3 years in each stat. even tatum's playoff RAPM doesn't clear harden's from that list homecourtloss posted and that's arguably the crux of the tatum argument. tatum very much feels like this generations isiah. really good player but also on a stacked team where it's clear he's not really in the mvp tier.

[Top10alltime]

I think it shouldn't be hard to get that people won't push Embiid that high when he doesn't have a single postseason worth of mentioning in this project.

2021, and 2024. Also injuries count, so it shouldn't be held against him.

RealGM counts the RS for when it comes to their homeboys, but when it comes to Embiid, his top 10 level RS is thrown out the window and only focusing on his playoffs.

[therealbig3]

Injuries absolutely get held against you when evaluating peaks. He can’t stay healthy. It’s a legitimate angle to say that Embiid can never lead you to a title because he can never stay healthy enough for a title run.

[70sFan]

2021, and 2024.

Are these run good enough to contend for top 15 here? I personally don't think so.

Also injuries count, so it shouldn't be held against him.

What do you mean by that? For me what matters is how you perform on the court. If you don't perform or perform poorly due to injuries, then it makes your season significantly less valuable.

RealGM counts the RS for when it comes to their homeboys, but when it comes to Embiid, his top 10 level RS is thrown out the window and only focusing on his playoffs.

RS is the only reason why Embiid will likely end up on this list. Also, I wouldn't be so sure about Embiid having top 10 RS here. The only season I'd call ATG is 2023 and it's followed by weak postseason.

[eminence]

In his semi defense - I don't see meaningful separation between the '22 and '23 regular seasons.

I'd call him a top 10 talent when healthy (for the 25 years), probably 10-15 for his best RS, and somewhere in the 20s for overall season. Unsure if I'll vote for him yet or not in this project. Leanings towards yes in the 20-25 region.