K Pelton's and ESPN O/U win/loss predictions, what's your hot take?

[tamaraw08]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/46521096/nba-2025-2026-season-win-projections-all-30-teams

Pelton's slightly different and some hot takes like
GSW getting 2nd Spot in the West winning 56 games.
TWolves finishing 8th spot at just 43.7 wins
With the Grizz losing Bane slightly better at 44.6
Also Clips at 4th place at 49.7, better than the Lakers projected at 45.8 at 6th place.
I sense that he is not bothered by the older ages of core players from GSW and Clippers.
At the same time he's down with young teams like the Spurs projected only at 40.1 wins

My hot take is that the Sixers will exceed both expectations of Pelton's 38.4 and ESPN's 42.5.
What's yours?

[ForeverTFC]

Feels like the model doesn't do a great job accounting for the impact the absence of the 1st option would have on the rest of the roster - both Celtics and Indy's win totals feel too high.

No idea why his model hates the Wolves so much. Magic feel too high, especially in comparison to Detroit, but again I'm not sure what in the model drives this.

[Jellybeans]

LOL @ Boston/Indy being better then Detroit and Hawks
GSW at 2 wild

[levon]

Is this basically a summed total of player RAPM?

[tamaraw08]

LOL @ Boston/Indy being better then Detroit and Hawks
GSW at 2 wild

I also feel Boston would exceed expectations because of Brown, White and Pritchard and their coach is pretty underrated.
Indiana losing Turner would be felt more than Halli's injury IMO because they still have Nembhart and TJ but again, they are so disciplined and organized.
Detroit benefitted greatly from Beasley's hot shooting including his 16 pts/game and now they must rely on Ivey to duplicate that.
Both Harris and THJ would be a year older and I'm not sure they will be as efficient.

[tamaraw08]

Is this basically a summed total of player RAPM?

Based on the scoring of projections at the APBRmetrics forum, my recalibrated forecast had the second-lowest root mean squared error, a method that heavily penalizes bad misses. It also had the strongest correlation to actual wins and losses.

To project teams, I start with player ratings based on a combination of my SCHOENE stats-based projections and luck-adjusted regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) provided by Krishna Narsu that covers the past three seasons. For each team, I project games played based on those missed to injury over the past three years and current absences then subjectively guess at the distribution of playing time.

[bisme37]

LOL @ Boston/Indy being better then Detroit and Hawks
GSW at 2 wild

I also feel Boston would exceed expectations because of Brown, White and Pritchard and their coach is pretty underrated.
Indiana losing Turner would be felt more than Halli's injury IMO because they still have Nembhart and TJ but again, they are so disciplined and organized.
Detroit benefitted greatly from Beasley's hot shooting including his 16 pts/game and now they must rely on Ivey to duplicate that.
Both Harris and THJ would be a year older and I'm not sure they will be as efficient.

Yeah I think the Celtics don't suck as much as might be expected and will win a good amount of games, especially early in the season until opposing teams figure they still need to bring their A game to beat them.

Then maybe JT comes back late in the year, the C's find an upgrade at center, and voila, it's a tough playoff team again.

[Exp0sed]

LOL @ Boston/Indy being better then Detroit and Hawks
GSW at 2 wild

I also feel Boston would exceed expectations because of Brown, White and Pritchard and their coach is pretty underrated.
Indiana losing Turner would be felt more than Halli's injury IMO because they still have Nembhart and TJ but again, they are so disciplined and organized.
Detroit benefitted greatly from Beasley's hot shooting including his 16 pts/game and now they must rely on Ivey to duplicate that.
Both Harris and THJ would be a year older and I'm not sure they will be as efficient.

THJ is now a member of the Denver Nuggets, fwiw

[Exp0sed]

LOL @ Boston/Indy being better then Detroit and Hawks
GSW at 2 wild

yeah, Pelton must have eaten some really good shrooms

there's no way Wolves finish 8th barring injury. yes, Conley might finally be washed but Dilingham looked awesome as a rookie and should fill that production well in his soph season. i'm down on the Pistons myself but Hawks would finish above the Celtics and Indy and it wouldn't be particularly close either and the Dubs finishing 2nd with an average age of about 36 is def wild, 0% chance the Dubs finish that high in the bloodbath West

I get that they had a very good record post the Butler trade but Butler isn't exactly mr. durable and he also doesn't play in November, the way he plays in May or June. 0% chance.

[Biff]

We went 3-17 without KD last year, so him saying KD's impact is overstated isn't really reflected in our record. Our defense looked far better in our preseason game but it's 1 game and the preseason. As of right now, I see 35 as extremely optimistic. Probably as likely that we only win 25 games.

[SlimShady83]

Sticking to my guns

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2471468

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2471466

[tamaraw08]

LOL @ Boston/Indy being better then Detroit and Hawks
GSW at 2 wild

I also feel Boston would exceed expectations because of Brown, White and Pritchard and their coach is pretty underrated.
Indiana losing Turner would be felt more than Halli's injury IMO because they still have Nembhart and TJ but again, they are so disciplined and organized.
Detroit benefitted greatly from Beasley's hot shooting including his 16 pts/game and now they must rely on Ivey to duplicate that.
Both Harris and THJ would be a year older and I'm not sure they will be as efficient.

THJ is now a member of the Denver Nuggets, fwiw

And Im not going to lie and say Im a huge fan of JB Bickerstaff. No he is not dumb but he benefited greatly from his players shooting great last season.

[SkyHook]

He's got the Jazz in the right position, 15th in the west, but his win total is more optimistic than mine; Utah's backcourt is that bad. Otherwise in the west, he's got the Dubs WAY too high, the Lakers somewhat high (he's right that they're too top heavy with little in reserve) and the Wolves too low. Pacers and Celtics feel too high, but I have no idea where to put them until we're 20 games in.

[Exp0sed]

LOL @ Boston/Indy being better then Detroit and Hawks
GSW at 2 wild

I also feel Boston would exceed expectations because of Brown, White and Pritchard and their coach is pretty underrated.
Indiana losing Turner would be felt more than Halli's injury IMO because they still have Nembhart and TJ but again, they are so disciplined and organized.
Detroit benefitted greatly from Beasley's hot shooting including his 16 pts/game and now they must rely on Ivey to duplicate that.
Both Harris and THJ would be a year older and I'm not sure they will be as efficient.

Yeah I think the Celtics don't suck as much as might be expected and will win a good amount of games, especially early in the season until opposing teams figure they still need to bring their A game to beat them.

Then maybe JT comes back late in the year, the C's find an upgrade at center, and voila, it's a tough playoff team again.

JT isn't coming back this season

I saw the reports etc. and everyone wishes him a speedy recovery but the reality is that many (most) players could technically be fit enough to play after several months. the reason for the long hiatus in achilles injuries is because the data is very conclusive regarding further risk of injury as a function of how long (or how little) a player waits before returning from the injury. that's the reason teams hold out players for that long, it has little to do with the time it takes a player to technically be cleared to play or be a 100% physically fit to play NBA basketball following their original injury

JT is a 300+ M investment and is in his prime, there is no way the C's bring him back, especially as they unloaded Jrue,Kp,Horford etc. to shed the huge task bill and don't have a realistic path to contention even with JT this season

[nomansland]

If you look at his predictions for last season, it's kind of hard to take him seriously this time around. And looking at this year's predictions, there's some obviously wack stuff in there. He's probably just trying to get clicks.

[tamaraw08]

We went 3-17 without KD last year, so him saying KD's impact is overstated isn't really reflected in our record. Our defense looked far better in our preseason game but it's 1 game and the preseason. As of right now, I see 35 as extremely optimistic. Probably as likely that we only win 25 games.

but you also need to consider the incoming players like Green, Brooks, Williams contributing this season. Development of Dunn and full training camp for Nick Richards too.

[Duffman100]

my gut says over on the Raptors but **** me, I don't know. We could win 30 games, we could win like 48.

[bisme37]

I also feel Boston would exceed expectations because of Brown, White and Pritchard and their coach is pretty underrated.
Indiana losing Turner would be felt more than Halli's injury IMO because they still have Nembhart and TJ but again, they are so disciplined and organized.
Detroit benefitted greatly from Beasley's hot shooting including his 16 pts/game and now they must rely on Ivey to duplicate that.
Both Harris and THJ would be a year older and I'm not sure they will be as efficient.

Yeah I think the Celtics don't suck as much as might be expected and will win a good amount of games, especially early in the season until opposing teams figure they still need to bring their A game to beat them.

Then maybe JT comes back late in the year, the C's find an upgrade at center, and voila, it's a tough playoff team again.

JT isn't coming back this season

I saw the reports etc. and everyone wishes him a speedy recovery but the reality is that many (most) players could technically be fit enough to play after several months. the reason for the long hiatus in achilles injuries is because the data is very conclusive regarding further risk of injury as a function of how long (or how little) a player waits before returning from the injury. that's the reason teams hold out players for that long, it has little to do with the time it takes a player to technically be cleared to play or be a 100% physically fit to play NBA basketball following their original injury

JT is a 300+ M investment and is in his prime, there is no way the C's bring him back, especially as they unloaded Jrue,Kp,Horford etc. to shed the huge task bill and don't have a realistic path to contention even with JT this season

I dunno man. I've got a bunch of posters telling me there's no way he's coming back this year, but I've got actual doctors telling me the opposite. For example this one:

(TLDW)
- Not unprecedented rehab timeline, slightly early, but it's nothing miraculous/groundbreaking
- Got the surgery where instead of just suturing the tendons together, they also add bone anchors in the heel bone to anchor sutures to provide additional support/reinforcement to the tendon which does allow quicker rehab timeline than just regular repair
- Could feasibly return within 8-10 months with 8 months out being January

Watch on YouTube

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Yeah I think the Celtics don't suck as much as might be expected and will win a good amount of games, especially early in the season until opposing teams figure they still need to bring their A game to beat them.

Then maybe JT comes back late in the year, the C's find an upgrade at center, and voila, it's a tough playoff team again.

JT isn't coming back this season

I saw the reports etc. and everyone wishes him a speedy recovery but the reality is that many (most) players could technically be fit enough to play after several months. the reason for the long hiatus in achilles injuries is because the data is very conclusive regarding further risk of injury as a function of how long (or how little) a player waits before returning from the injury. that's the reason teams hold out players for that long, it has little to do with the time it takes a player to technically be cleared to play or be a 100% physically fit to play NBA basketball following their original injury

JT is a 300+ M investment and is in his prime, there is no way the C's bring him back, especially as they unloaded Jrue,Kp,Horford etc. to shed the huge task bill and don't have a realistic path to contention even with JT this season

I dunno man. I've got a bunch of posters telling me there's no way he's coming back this year, but I've got actual doctors telling me the opposite. For example this one:

(TLDW)
- Not unprecedented rehab timeline, slightly early, but it's nothing miraculous/groundbreaking
- Got the surgery where instead of just suturing the tendons together, they also add bone anchors in the heel bone to anchor sutures to provide additional support/reinforcement to the tendon which does allow quicker rehab timeline than just regular repair
- Could feasibly return within 8-10 months with 8 months out being January after the all star break

Watch on YouTube

But this article is O/U and Tatum coming back late February isn't going to add 5+ wins. Maybe I undervalue brown and Pritchard, but this team lost Tatum, holiday, zinger and horford and supposed to be better than the other teams listed?

[bisme37]

JT isn't coming back this season

I saw the reports etc. and everyone wishes him a speedy recovery but the reality is that many (most) players could technically be fit enough to play after several months. the reason for the long hiatus in achilles injuries is because the data is very conclusive regarding further risk of injury as a function of how long (or how little) a player waits before returning from the injury. that's the reason teams hold out players for that long, it has little to do with the time it takes a player to technically be cleared to play or be a 100% physically fit to play NBA basketball following their original injury

JT is a 300+ M investment and is in his prime, there is no way the C's bring him back, especially as they unloaded Jrue,Kp,Horford etc. to shed the huge task bill and don't have a realistic path to contention even with JT this season

I dunno man. I've got a bunch of posters telling me there's no way he's coming back this year, but I've got actual doctors telling me the opposite. For example this one:

(TLDW)
- Not unprecedented rehab timeline, slightly early, but it's nothing miraculous/groundbreaking
- Got the surgery where instead of just suturing the tendons together, they also add bone anchors in the heel bone to anchor sutures to provide additional support/reinforcement to the tendon which does allow quicker rehab timeline than just regular repair
- Could feasibly return within 8-10 months with 8 months out being January

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

But this article is O/U and Tatum coming back late February isn't going to add 5+ wins. Maybe I undervalue brown and Pritchard, but this team lost Tatum, holiday, zinger and horford and supposed to be better than the other teams listed?

Add 5+ wins to what? The Vegas over/unders aren't something that will actually happen or need to be disproven.

I think 40.5 wins is a little low and can see them surpassing that, with or with or without JT.