The 2025 Rookie Class

[closg00]

Ace with a really impressive performance tonight.

Seriously pissing me off. He was ours, grrrr. Idiot and all, he was ours (at least he fired the homicidal agent though).

I don't know how to think of this group, I do not think this was a five team draft, but I think Tre did enough during the stretch run to convince people that he might have belonged in the tier below Flagg, I just don't know if that's late in the process b.s., like the stupidity that suckered Charlotte into totally blowing their pick on an all hype, good all around, zero chance of being great prospect.

Going in to the season it feels (to me) like:

Flagg:
Superstar Possibility: 15-20%
All Star, borderline all star ability: 50-60%
Bust: 3%

Harper:
Superstar Ability: 25-35%
All Star, Borderline All Star ability: 35-40%
Bust: 5-10%

Bailey:
Superstar Possibility: 25%
All Star, Borderline All Star Ability: 25-35%
Bust: 25%

VJ:
Superstar Ability: 15%
All Star, Borderline All Star Ability: 25-30%
Bust: 15%


Kon Kuh-busted Pick
Superstar Ability: 1%
All Star, Borderline All Star Ability: 5-10%
Bust: 20%

Tre:
Superstar Ability: 10%
All Star, Borderline All Star Ability: 15-30%
Bust: 10-15%

Other Guys I think have really high upside potential: Maluach, Fears, Carter Bryant, one of the French Bigs, Traore, I'm trying to remember if the other guy was McNeely or someone else.

For me, the great news for us coming out of this draft after getting repeatedly kicked in the nuts, and getting our heads shoved into a toilet was that Charlotte bought the Kon Kuhstupidity, leaving two of Bailey, Tre or Maluach to fall to us, guaranteeing us, at bare minimum, either a high upside confusing player with potentially horrid judgement (Bailey), a reasonably high upside, very high floor guy (Tre), or a really high upside, but pretty high downside guy in Maluach. Rather than a low floor moderate ceiling wtf pick like Kon.

So I'm not super pissed. I think down the line, 3 or 5 years from now, we've got one of the top 3-5 players out of the top 10 selections (I'm sure someone maybe multiple someones outside the top 10 will climb into the top 5 of the class, but Tre has a real strong chance of climbing into the top 5 from 6th overall as well), so that will have to do. I hated the pick in round 2 and still do, the late round 1 pick is a developmental pick with a lot of upside and a low floor. We'll see.

As I said after lottery night, though, everything turns on the Suns season, our season and our lottery luck in May. If we get lucky in May, we are probably playoff bound in '27, if we get ----ed again, they will have to depend upon the pile up of swaps, and extra picks they have in the second half of this decade to fix getting screwed in '25 and '26, perhaps for now, 2 of the top 3 classes of the past 7 or 8 years. So we've absolutely positively got to get lottery luck AND take the right guy next spring.

The good news, for now anyway, is that next years draft is deeper in top end talent than last June's, and higher in individual potential too. At least 3 mega studs, possibly 4-6 (I think there's 4, with 2 or 3 guys who could rise). It will be an interesting wait through May. We'll find out, probably, what Sarr and Bub will be, and we'll find out if Tre has star potential and we'll find out if the NBA just doesn't want basketball to ever grow in DC, period lol, with their dumb---, utterly pointless, lottery come May. Last May was big, but this May will largely be defining, while the season will tell us if we have the horses to surround a potential star out of that '26 class. Probably should also note, I believe 3 of the top 5 prospects going into the '26 draft season are wings lol, so we've got Boozer as a big, stretch 4 kind of, a bunch of wings, and 1 PG, so we may end up making a trade or trades if we get lucky. If Mikel Brown has a star turn in the college season, that would give us 2 PG's in the top 5 or 6.

Seems like Peterson a Combo/PG at #1, Boozer, Ament and Dybantas (PF, 3/4, and a 3) as the other guys, and then Koa Peet appears to be climbing charts (he's a 3/4 I guess?), I see Quaintance back up again, another big, but I don't see that holding up, as he's a 2nd year dude, coming off an injury.

Charlotte , needed a Center but reached for Tidjane over Clingan and Ware, then win 2025 they selected a utility guy in Kon, TF man, you gotta take Ace.

[doclinkin]

Ace with a really impressive performance tonight.

Seriously pissing me off. He was ours, grrrr. Idiot and all, he was ours (at least he fired the homicidal agent though).

We picked up the agent's son: Sharife Cooper.

So I'm not super pissed. I think down the line, 3 or 5 years from now, we've got one of the top 3-5 players out of the top 10 selections (I'm sure someone maybe multiple someones outside the top 10 will climb into the top 5 of the class, but Tre has a real strong chance of climbing into the top 5 from 6th overall as well), so that will have to do. I hated the pick in round 2 and still do, the late round 1 pick is a developmental pick with a lot of upside and a low floor. We'll see.

What's to hate about Jamir Watkins? Older rookie but he checks all the boxes of a productive player. Stood out in combine play, and the defensive effort and effectiveness showed up in Summer League as well. At pick 43 you're not really expecting much. Curious who else you'd take there. Rocco Zikarsky? (Last seen recording 2pts 3boards against the Knicks in preseason play).

One question I like to see asked coming out of the combine and workouts is when reporters ask prospects who else they've seen out there that impressed. A few players said Watkins. We are deep at the position of 'big guards who can play forward' but that's fine. Some part of our developmental process is about filling the G league roster with players who fit the archetype, so anybody we send down for a tune-up will play alongside doppelgangers of the guys we have at the next level. We can run a similar system, so guys who get called up are familiar with the terminology and roles. We brought Champagnie up from that system and he fits in well. Refurbished Jared Butler on that team to the extent we got a 1st round pick for him in trade. Watkins seems a good fit for the back end of the bench as a hustle player who makes the guys around him better.

I've been high on Will Riley for a bit. One of the young players in the draft who re-classified to jump early. His energy took over games for the Illini, now reports say he's the most energetic guy in every practice. Wiz reporter Chase Hughes quoted CJ Mccollum as saying Riley has an advanced understanding of the game, is never in the wrong place. I'm high on Riley as this draft's surprising late round surprise a la Kyshawn. He may struggle for minutes until we trade veterans, but I can see him playing 1-3 for us, versatile enough to fill in if we are thin at a spot.

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we've got Boozer as a big, stretch 4 kind of

I'm happy with the top 4 options, but Boozer is the player who looks like an ideal chemistry fit for this squad. Fundamentally sound in the extreme. Realistic upside in his ability to pack on strength. Allows Sarr to play mobile instead of crowding the paint. A lane protector who is able to deter penetration by positioning, defending like Brook Lopez, with anticipation and angles more than jumping to swat at balls. Shows up in the opponents lack of attempts at the rim or from the FT line more than his own blocks and steals. High percentage low post game, and just enough jumpshooting to allow space on that end. Smart passer, smart screener, pick and roll understanding, physically tough, solid all around. Veteran veteran game for someone so young. Whatever his stats look like in college or the NBA he reads to me as a +/- champion for his career. Slab of muscle who makes Sarr better as a weakside help defender, or on ball perimeter shield. The team instantly gets a frontline defensive captain. Improved rebounding. We go large inside & out and still can play with small quick teams.

But yeah. There's talent coming out, and also you may be selling short who we already have. I think our rookies in this class have notable upside. A pure gunner and OCD workout fanatic. A wildcard talent who is IMO a candidate for top 10 player in a future redraft of this year. And a solid defensive pitbull who makes our players battle in practice.

Plus we added Cam Whitmore for free. Eye popping athlete who is poised to explode in the highlight reels this year.

[nate33]

It hurts. It hurts it hurts it hurts.

No slight to Tre.

But he was angling to be here. Angling. A player of immense promise, a deadass big-time scorer — angling.

And … ugh.

Right. Nice that players actually want to come here now. But would’ve been good to get him. That said TJ is a fine consolation prize. Lesser physical tools but the mental make up is a gift itself. Basketball obsessives like Kobe, Ray Allen, KD, Stef, Dame all show you can forge a HOF career out of will, focus, and want-to. None were the hands down the most athletic guy on the floor but they simply out worked everyone else. TJ has that quality in spades.

Sour grapes wise. I wonder about the volatility of a team that had both Ace and Whitmore. I like surrounding Cam with passers and glue guys more than ‘watch me’ showboats. Neither Cam nor Ace are notable passers. So, however good Ace is maybe the combo of Tre + Cam is better?

If Tracy McGrady and Ray Allen are in the same draft class, which player goes ahead of the other?

Ace has all the tools to be another McGrady. Tre can shoot it like Ray, but Allen was more athletic, like a V.J. Edgecombe. Like doclinkin says, the Wizards got a good consolation prize.

That said, Ace Bailey is going to be a problem in this league.

Bailey has nothing even approaching Tracy McGrady's ball handling and shot creation ability. McGrady was a low-key elite ball handler who rarely turned the ball over despite a very high usage rate. He was actually somewhat Jordan-esque in that regard.

Bailey looks like a rich man's Michael Porter Jr. to me. He's MPJ with real defensive upside. I don't really see #1 option potential with him because he isn't a ball handler or a playmaker. His highest upside probably looks something like Paul George, but with a worse handle and probably worse defense.

[payitforward]

Agree with you about Ace, nate. Tho of course he may surprise us all.
As to Tre, we'll have to see: in college, he showed one significant skill, shooting the 3. He's also got some very solid work habits. That'll help. (edit: as you pointed out yesterday...)

Like it or not, getting a truly outstanding player with the #5 or #6 pick in the draft is unusual.

[payitforward]

Best guys taken at #5 or #6 in all the drafts from '11 to '23:

Jonas Valanciunas, Damian Lillard, Marcus Smart, De Aaron Fox, Trae Young, Darius Garland, Jalen Suggs, Josh Giddey.

8 players out of the 26 chosen. 1 true star in Lillard. Maybe Suggs has that in his future? Some other good players as well.

Now... anything can happen, but still... maybe reset your expectations for Ace Bailey & Tre Johnson?

[Dat2U]

One of my guys and my 19th pick based on my final board. Just above Riley.

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[doclinkin]

Agree with you about Ace, nate. Tho of course he may surprise us all.
As to Tre, we'll have to see: in college, he showed one significant skill, shooting the 3. He's also got some very solid work habits. That'll help. (edit: as you pointed out yesterday...)

Like it or not, getting a truly outstanding player with the #5 or #6 pick in the draft is unusual.

Yes but you of all people have shown it’s rare to get a truly outstanding player with any particular spot in the draft. Barring the #1 overall. Actually HOF wise and win shares there’s a fluke statistical bump when it comes to the 5th pick. Better than the 4th equivalent to the 3rd.

That said this year and next year have been drafts that scouts have been eyeballing for a long time precisely because of the purported depth of top end talent. A guy like Tre is the sort of player that goes 3-5 in most draft years. A Bradley Beal type. Prototypical shooting guard with good size and nice % from 3. Put him in last years draft he’d be in the conversation with Castle and Sheppard over which to take first.

[nate33]

One of my guys and my 19th pick based on my final board. Just above Riley.

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He was the guy I wanted too. That said, I think he is a couple of years away. He isn't stout enough to guard centers just yet, so they'll play him at forward, and I think he is too slow to guard forwards.

In about 2 years, when he adds more strength, I think he'll be a quality stretch 5 with passing - a Mo Wagner/Kelly Olynyk type of player. If he struggles to earn minutes early in his career, I'd try and steal him with a couple of SRP's.

[doclinkin]

But there have been many insightful comments made by other veterans about the Wizards' rookies throughout training camp.

TRE JOHNSON III

McCollum: “Loves the game, hard worker. Obviously, everybody knows about his shooting. More explosive than he probably gets credit for. He’s got a bright future. He asks questions and wants to be great. I think he’s got a really bright future.”

Khris Middleton: “He’s a shooter, man. I mean, he has confidence. He’s going to pull them whenever he’s open and not think twice about it.”

Corey Kispert: “He can shoot it, man. He burns the nets off these rims. To have anybody in the league where if you’re in a bind offensively you can throw it to him and let him work is a luxury. He’s wired to score and he’s wired to put the ball in the bucket. Having guys like that on your team that are a safety blanket really is a luxury for everybody 1-through-12.”

WILL RILEY

McCollum: “I think he’s got some European flair to his game and by that I mean he’s always in the right spots. Great cutter, moves well without the ball. Good pivoting for a rookie. Usually rookies don’t pivot well, they play too fast. He’s got a good jumpshot, always crashes the boards. He looks really good in 5-on-5. He plays really well, he moves well. He doesn’t look lost, he doesn’t look uncomfortable, he doesn’t look scared. I think he’s got a bright future, too.”

Middleton: “I would say his motor [has stood out]. He’s a quiet guy, kind of reserved. But he’s a guy that’s non-stop moving. He’s tough, he can score the ball, he can shoot. He knows how to play, he’s a great cutter. He does a lot of things that you probably wouldn’t have noticed until you sit back and watch film or just watch practice. He’s non-stop moving. And, just like Tre, he picks up things very quickly, also.”

Kispert: “He’s a dog. He works his tail off, plays at 110 percent every possession. Will has gotten a lot of opportunities and looks at the basket and points scored and steals just because he plays harder than anyone else. That’s a lesson that any young guy that wants to play in the NBA or is just getting into the NBA can take, that especially when you maintain it over the course of the season, you’re going to carve a niche for yourself if you just play harder than everybody. That’s been proven over and over again.”

JAMIR WATKINS

McCollum: “Great defender. He asks questions about defense. He was in the cold tub yesterday asking me about [my former Pelicans teammate] Herb Jones and what makes him such a good defender. He was asking me how he got to that point. I was telling him that he cares. He watches film, he makes the extra effort and the body type matches. He’s got a good body - 6-foot-5, 6-foot-6 with long arms, quick enough to guard ones, strong enough to guard threes and fours. He can probably switch onto some fives and then it’s 3-and-D. The league loves that. Guys who can guard all the positions, guys that make quick decisions, catch-and-shoot, can slash one dribble off a closeout but really are out there to guard and guard at a high level. He has ‘lockdown’ written all over him in terms of his future. I think he can guard one-through-five. Jumpshot is already good, which is usually an issue for guys. Usually, the best defenders struggle to shoot. That’s another guy who works, asks questions and knows he’s going to be able to carve out a niche in this league.”

[Kanyewest]

In 17 minutes

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[closg00]

In 17 minutes

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Exciting to watch him work, skilled and smart player.

[closg00]

WCJR is another player many wanted on draft night, Ace & WCJR already have some chemistry early, I would loved to have WCJR and moved Bub to SG.

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[nate33]

WCJR is another player many wanted on draft night, Ace & WCJR already have some chemistry early, I would loved to have WCJR and moved Bub to SG.

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Utah is doing a good job of having Bailey play like a shooting guard on offense. He is constantly coming off of screens and curls, shooting after zero or one dribbles. He's certainly hitting his shots, hitting 19 out of 29 so far, which is a 66% FG% and a 72% eFG%. He has only taken 3 FTA's though.

Clayton looks like a veteran PG already.

[nate33]

In 17 minutes

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Exciting to watch him work, skilled and smart player.

He has all the talent in the world on offense. He moves much better than I thought he would, and he's definitely willing to be physical. The only issue with him is can he hold up on defense when teams start targeting him in pick-and-roll. He committed 5 fouls in 17 minutes.

[AFM]

Game tomorrow!!!!! Who wants the honor of making the first game thread....

[closg00]

Looks like I’m going to have to pop for League Pass, the other methods appear to have dried up, if anyone wants to hit me up via the DM and do me a solid

[tontoz]

Looks like I’m going to have to pop for League Pass, the other methods appear to have dried up, if anyone wants to hit me up via the DM and do me a solid

You do realize LP doesn't show local games, right?

[closg00]

Looks like I’m going to have to pop for League Pass, the other methods appear to have dried up, if anyone wants to hit me up via the DM and do me a solid

You do realize LP doesn't show local games, right?

Yeah, I need the hookup badly.
Edit: I will just use a VPN to get around the local blackout .

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Right. Nice that players actually want to come here now. But would’ve been good to get him. That said TJ is a fine consolation prize. Lesser physical tools but the mental make up is a gift itself. Basketball obsessives like Kobe, Ray Allen, KD, Stef, Dame all show you can forge a HOF career out of will, focus, and want-to. None were the hands down the most athletic guy on the floor but they simply out worked everyone else. TJ has that quality in spades.

Sour grapes wise. I wonder about the volatility of a team that had both Ace and Whitmore. I like surrounding Cam with passers and glue guys more than ‘watch me’ showboats. Neither Cam nor Ace are notable passers. So, however good Ace is maybe the combo of Tre + Cam is better?

If Tracy McGrady and Ray Allen are in the same draft class, which player goes ahead of the other?

Ace has all the tools to be another McGrady. Tre can shoot it like Ray, but Allen was more athletic, like a V.J. Edgecombe. Like doclinkin says, the Wizards got a good consolation prize.

That said, Ace Bailey is going to be a problem in this league.

Bailey has nothing even approaching Tracy McGrady's ball handling and shot creation ability. McGrady was a low-key elite ball handler who rarely turned the ball over despite a very high usage rate. He was actually somewhat Jordan-esque in that regard.

Bailey looks like a rich man's Michael Porter Jr. to me. He's MPJ with real defensive upside. I don't really see #1 option potential with him because he isn't a ball handler or a playmaker. His highest upside probably looks something like Paul George, but with a worse handle and probably worse defense.

Agree with you about Ace, nate. Tho of course he may surprise us all.
As to Tre, we'll have to see: in college, he showed one significant skill, shooting the 3. He's also got some very solid work habits. That'll help. (edit: as you pointed out yesterday...)

Like it or not, getting a truly outstanding player with the #5 or #6 pick in the draft is unusual.

Tracy McGrady wasn't that good his first two seasons.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mcgratr01.html

Time will tell. I will stand by the comparison.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Best guys taken at #5 or #6 in all the drafts from '11 to '23:

Jonas Valanciunas, Damian Lillard, Marcus Smart, De Aaron Fox, Trae Young, Darius Garland, Jalen Suggs, Josh Giddey.

8 players out of the 26 chosen. 1 true star in Lillard. Maybe Suggs has that in his future? Some other good players as well.

Now... anything can happen, but still... maybe reset your expectations for Ace Bailey & Tre Johnson?

I will always remember liking Lillard, who was drafted #6 out of Weber State, plus a pick more than Beal, #3 from Florida. I thought Weber was the better player.

Beal was a great positional rebounder, but Dame's stats impressed me more. He turned out to be the superior player, but peak Beal was darned good, too.