Will a player ever average 40ppg in today's NBA

[GrindCityHustle]

Is it possible. We saw Jordan do 37ppg in 87 but haven't seen it since. Wilt did 50 back in the plumber era.

Would doing this put you in automatic goat territory just doing it for one season?

[UcanUwill]

Harden averaged over 36, so it is possible, and also, it would not automatically put you in goat territory.

Also, my English is pretty bad, but I find title very weirdly phrased, it starts with will we ever and follows with today's. If you ask will we see someone averaged 40 in todays NBA, as in next two years lets say, I do not think so, still wouldn't make player GOAT candidate by default tho I do not think. Will we ever see it tho, yes, but we do not know how scoring will increase or decrease in the future, maybe 40 ppg wont be that impressive in the future.

[MMyhre]

Harden at 36.13 pts is the closest in modern times. He took 24.5 shots per game and got to the line 11 times per game. Made 4.8 threes a game on 36.8 3pt % on a usage of 40.5 %, the second highest in history only just behind Westbrook.

I mean you would have to be a Stephen Curry like talent from 3pt, or a Shaq/Giannis freak at scoring in the paint/getting to the line, or a guard/forward/center with some of all of those skills + a terrible offensive team around you and the highest usage of all time to do it.

Think LeBron Curry, on the 2011-12 Bobcats. Or a Giannis/Shaquille Wembanyama hybrid who can score from 3pt range, handle the ball and has length + strength and size to just kill everyone at the rim.

It would need an all time talent at scoring with a selfish playstyle, in an all time **** situation because it's not the best way to play basketball. I don't think it's likely, maybe if Wemby starts hitting 6-7 + threes a game in his prime with half his team injured in a season or something.

Maybe Wemby becomes that hybrid himself eventually. He has bulked up quite a bit already...

[jokeboy86]

Nope and we probably won't see anybody come close to what both Harden and Kobe did either. Between Harden and Kobe there was a 13yr gap and between Kobe and Jordan a 19yr gap. You need guys who are elite scorers but also workhorses with crazy motors. Contrary to what he's been the past couple of years but when Harden was in shape he had incredible stamina. I think elite guys like KD, Curry, and Shai can't be the workhorses that those guys were. Shaq and Embiid probably could've done it if they took better care of their bodies and in Shaq's case addressed his FT shooting. Iverson maybe if he were a better shooter because he clearly had the attempts(27.8 in 02-03!) I think Miami Lebron could've done it if he had the greenlight and didn't have to share with Wade, Bosh, and others.

I also think it may be damn near impossible in today's game because of the pace. Even with the popularity of the 3pt shot the recent league leaders in PPG have been hovering around only 33 recently and before that around 30ish outside of Harden.

[og15]

Nope and we probably won't see anybody come close to what both Harden and Kobe did either. Between Harden and Kobe there was a 13yr gap and between Kobe and Jordan a 19yr gap. You need guys who are elite scorers but also workhorses with crazy motors. Contrary to what he's been the past couple of years but when Harden was in shape he had incredible stamina. I think elite guys like KD, Curry, and Shai can't be the workhorses that those guys were. Shaq and Embiid probably could've done it if they took better care of their bodies and in Shaq's case addressed his FT shooting. Iverson maybe if he were a better shooter because he clearly had the attempts(27.8 in 02-03!) I think Miami Lebron could've done it if he had the greenlight and didn't have to share with Wade, Bosh, and others.

I also think it may be damn near impossible in today's game because of the pace. Even with the popularity of the 3pt shot the recent league leaders in PPG have been hovering around only 33 recently and before that around 30ish outside of Harden.

Pace is not a limiting factor here, the biggest limiting factor is that usually it is simply not productive for a team to have that much scoring going through one guy for a whole season.

[levon]

Back in the day players averaged 40mpg for years. That's the limiting factor these days. I would say Luka is a good candidate to come close, maybe like 38.

[cupcakesnake]

Nope and we probably won't see anybody come close to what both Harden and Kobe did either. Between Harden and Kobe there was a 13yr gap and between Kobe and Jordan a 19yr gap. You need guys who are elite scorers but also workhorses with crazy motors. Contrary to what he's been the past couple of years but when Harden was in shape he had incredible stamina. I think elite guys like KD, Curry, and Shai can't be the workhorses that those guys were. Shaq and Embiid probably could've done it if they took better care of their bodies and in Shaq's case addressed his FT shooting. Iverson maybe if he were a better shooter because he clearly had the attempts(27.8 in 02-03!) I think Miami Lebron could've done it if he had the greenlight and didn't have to share with Wade, Bosh, and others.

I also think it may be damn near impossible in today's game because of the pace. Even with the popularity of the 3pt shot the recent league leaders in PPG have been hovering around only 33 recently and before that around 30ish outside of Harden.

Pace is not a limiting factor here, the biggest limiting factor is that usually it is simply not productive for a team to have that much scoring going through one guy for a whole season.

This.
It's hard to picture a good offensive team having a guy average 40ppg. There is plenty of helioccentric offense in the NBA still though. The D'Antoni/Harden Rockets explored the extreme end of one guy controlling every possession. The Thunder's offense gets awfully Shai-ccentric in the halfcourt. The post-Shaq, pre-Pau Lakers let Kobe take any shot he felt like. The Warriors tried to run every possession through Wilt until they realized how bad a strategy that was.

If you run everything through one guy, the defense can load up on one guy. It's hard to imagine it's ever the most optimal strategy for an offense. At some point you have to turn some of those scoring possessions into playmaking for good offense to happen.

[cupcakesnake]

Back in the day players averaged 40mpg for years. That's the limiting factor these days. I would say Luka is a good candidate to come close, maybe like 38.

Luka played 37.5mpg in 2024, on a Dallas team where he put up absurd usage. He averaged 34ppg. I don't think minutes were a limiting factor there.

I think the minutes thing is more than offset by the increased offensive loads that star players take on in modern basketball. If you look at how many plays a player is directly involved in (shot, assist, turnover) across history, it's all guys from today taking up massive percentages of their team's offense. Luka seasons pop up 4 times in the top 12 all-time. All of those he's using over 60% of his team's possessions (2017 Westbrook is obviously #1). The top of the leaderboard is all Russ, Trae, Luka, Harden. 2006 Kobe and 2002 Iverson are the only guys from a different era to pop up in the top 30 (#25 and 27). Mark Price and MJ are the only 90s guys in the top 50. 1973 Tiny Archibald and Magic ('89 and '91) are the only old school guys using over 50% of team possessions.

So older generations played more, but they didn't function in offenses that allowed them to use as many possessions.

[theforumblue]

Is it possible. We saw Jordan do 37ppg in 87 but haven't seen it since. Wilt did 50 back in the plumber era.

Would doing this put you in automatic goat territory just doing it for one season?

Not just goat territory, I don't see how they wouldn't simply be crowned goat by the time the all star weekend. Whole weekend will just be a celebration of the one and only goat.

[GeorgeMarcus]

Players have come close enough that I say yes, it'll happen sooner or later

As for Wilt's 50+... Probably not in my lifetime

[dballislife]

the thing is you would have to be so great but more importantly be on this super duper terrible team with no teammates, so you can just chuck it up and have this super high usage rate to do it...is it even possible to have such high usage? you would think that your front office will try to find you running mates if your that great, so chucking up the amount of shots you need to avg 40 is insane

[nate33]

Today's game is actually more heliocentric than ever before. The biggest obstacle to 40 ppg is minutes played.

Heck, SGA just averaged 34.4 points per 36 minutes, which exceeded Jordan's per-minute scoring rate. If he could play 40 minutes a game like Jordan did, SGA would have averaged 38.2 points. If Jalen Willliams got hurt, forcing SGA to up his usage just a little bit more, 40 ppg is definitely possible.

[MrBigShot]

If MJ was in the NBA he'd be averaging 40+. It will happen eventually.

[Johnny Bball]

Not if they want to win.

[og15]

If MJ was in the NBA he'd be averaging 40+. It will happen eventually.

What if his team was good enough and didn't need him to?

[lambchop]

Contrary to what he's been the past couple of years but when Harden was in shape he had incredible stamina. I think elite guys like KD, Curry, and Shai can't be the workhorses that those guys were.

Yep, Harden was actually a physical specimen, especially if you factor in how he hardly missed games.

As for Curry, imo peak prime Curry (2014-2018) didn't necessarily have the team or system to pull it off. The warriors were extremely dominant and often times would decide games by the end of the 3rd quarter or even mid way through the 2nd quarter. This was even more evident on nights where Curry was on fire because 3 to 4 threes in a row with some Klay shots sprinkled in would decide the game early.

Had there been more of a burden on Curry to turn those blowouts, in which he scored 30 points, into 48 point games in 42 minutes, he could have had a single amazing scoring season.

However, his injury history indicates that he was physically never truly capable of sustaining that.

[LockoutSeason]

MJ took 28 shots per game the year he averaged 37.

There are like 20 players in the league today who would average 40 if you gave them that many shots.

[parapooper]

MJ took 33 peak scoring attempts
2025 average TS = 57.6%
33 scoring attempts @ 57.6% TS = 38 points

So it's basically about how many scoring attempts a player gets.
If you have a great scorer on a team of bad scorers (like MJ) then it might be reasonable to have him take half the teams shots, especially if he is a great 3pt shooter since 3pt attempts are pretty hard to prevent/defend
If you are on an atrocious team that scores at 45% TS you could take 100% of the teams shots as 40 foot 3s as long as you shoot >30% and still improve your team's scoring while the opponent wouldn't be defending that too hard since they were still going to win easily - at 100 possession that would be 90ppg

[Domejandro]

The answer is that there are a few players who absolutely could average that amount, but it would be extraordinarily detrimental to their team if they did so. For example, Nikola Jokić could spam shots the entire game and do it, but that would be a complete waste of his talent as an offensive engine. I don't see a (likely) scenario where a player can average that amount without harming their team.

[bkkrh]

Contrary to most I see it definitely as possible. It is just a question of all the right circumstances happening.

First of related to Wilt averaging 50 points in the "plumber era". 12 of these 80 games were against the Celtics with prime Bill Russell. Walt Bellamy was averaging 31.6 points an 19 rebounds that season. Pretty much 4 of the 8 teams he was playing had starting Centers putting up numbers that would land them an All NBA spot today. It is definitely a super impressive accomplishment.

First we need to understand the reasons why players had high scoring averages in the past. Jordan averaged 37 because there were simply no other scorers on the roster. Oakley averaged 14.5 that season which was his 2nd highest career average (highest was 14.6) and he was just in his 2nd season. Paxson was the 3rd best scorer with 11.3 which was also his career high and he only scored in double digits in one other season. Kobe had a pretty similar situation in his 35.4 PPG season.

The main reason James Harden averaged 36.1 points ins that his coach was Mike D’Antoni, who plays a stat inflating system. If Harden would be less focused on play making and a better 3 point shooter There is a good chance he would have achieved 40 points that year.

So we basically need a coach with a similar playstyle than D’Antoni on team that doesn´t have a lot of scorers and a player that has a mindset similar to AI, while being a better shooter. Sounds difficult, but definitely not impossible.

The 90-91 Paul Westhead Nuggets are a great example. He used the same run and gun style than he did in College, it wasn´t successfull, but player stats imploded. Michael Adams averaged 26.5 points as a 5-10 PG while shooting 39% from the field and 29% from 3. It´s the only season he ever averaged 20 points. Orlando Woodridge averaged 25 points while being a bench player the previous 2 seasons and went back to 14 points the following season when he played for a different team. Now imagine that team having a player like Dame or Curry on the roster.