NBA Trade Thread #13

[Infinity2152]

I think I'm in between you guys on Giannis's trade value. Sparkle says he's going to get a motherload we couldn't possibly match, Jnrjr is at 3 firsts because he has two years left. I think we could get him if everything goes just right, but it would cost more picks than that. Depending on what the Bucks are looking for, of course. That's a huge variable.

Would have the long term re-sign decision talk up front. Would try to get Holiday and bring his brother Thanassis to increase that likelihood.

Can somebody please give some of these better packages (not teams, trade packages) the Bucks will realistically receive better than a Bulls package that includes Giddey and not Matas? Matas is super hyped in here and Giddey undervalued imo, not sure all or even most of the league would say Matas is more valuable than Giddey right now. Who is this centerpiece young guy, how old are they and how much do they cost? How long is their contract, Giddey's is 4 years?

Any team getting Giannis is going to gut their team of either young player, big expirings and many picks, or expensive current star, MAYBE good young player and less picks. Which looks better to the Bucks?

I can't really debate our package versus random team's package with no idea of what that other package is, lmao! Hopefully it's better than KAT and some weak picks. Giannis may want to stay in the East as well, way easier path to a ring than fighting through the West and he's been here his whole career. He really care about wins and contending, that is a factor.

Do you all think adding Jrue would make it easier to get Giannis to want to come here? I do, but that's me.

[jnrjr79]

Like you said it's all opinion. We saw a decent first traded for three firsts last year, soand I'm pretty sure a number 10 pick could be split into two decent firsts which could then be split. Not talking 1 for 4 trade, though a 3 for 1 just happened.

Any team trading for Giannis is trying to win now. Nobody's signing Giannis focused on what he will bring in three years. Sure a 4 year contract would be more attractive. How many stars EVER are traded with four years left on their contract? They'd almost have to be traded just after they signed the max contract.

I could bring up at least 10 star trades of players lower than Giannis that got more than 3 firsts with two years left on their contracts. You want to pull up top 3-5 players in the NBA traded at 30 for 3 firsts that are not expiring, I'll take a look. Even if they are expiring, players at KD level traded for 3 firsts or less, show me. If a major player like Derozan is added, you have to assign some pick value. The level of the players they get back will affect the picks, of course they get less if the young player is Haliburton, lol.

You don't really think 50% of the league would offer more than 3 firsts for Giannis? That's the best offer? We should start at the lowest acceptable offer of course, I don't think 3 firsts get it done and the pick swaps are worthless since we'd be much better than the Bucks for years, most likely.

Without assurances from his agent that he'll stick around, no I don't think half the league would offer 5 firsts plus 5 swaps for Giannis. In part, I think that's because recent history has been suggesting that doing those sorts of trades doesn't really work.

Gobert trade - players, 5 picks, one swap, considered a huge mistake.
Bridges trade - non-important players, 5 picks, 1 swap, considered a huge mistake.
Anthony Davis trade - Lonzo, Ingram, 3 1sts, one swap, probably considered a success given they did get a title out of it (and got gifted Luka for Davis, lol).
Donovan Mitchell trade - real players, 3 picks, two swaps. Worth it for Cleveland.
Harden trade to Brooklyn - four picks, swaps, and an epic failure of a trade.
Durant to Suns - meh players, four picks, one swap, one of the biggest and most notorious trade fails in history.
George to Clippers - SGA, 5 1sts, swaps, also an incredible failure.

I know "it only takes one," but given the history on this sort of thing, I do not think 5 firsts, 5 swaps, and a young player (I assume you mean one that has some real potential) is probably going to happen for Giannis if he is traded this season. Again, I could be wrong!

I'd also say that if that is the cost, I would not want the Bulls to make that kind of an offer.

In any event, Giannis is still a top 5 player in the league, so I am not suggesting he's somehow not worthy of a significant haul. But 3 unprotected 1sts, and a young player with big upside, plus expiring contracts - that seems to me like roughly the right price. To me, I'd start by looking at the teams that have the biggest draft asset war chests:

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/44938717/nba-draft-asset-rankings-stacking-all-30-teams-pick-collections

I don't think the Thunder are going to mess with their own chemistry after winning the title last season. Brooklyn has a great stash, but their roster isn't ready to win. Same with the Jazz. Houston would probably be worth monitoring. Charlotte and the Wiz would also not seem to be ready. Detroit? That's a sneaky fun option. Orlando? They've got a fun 2026 swap (less favorable of Phoenix and Washington - both of those would probably be pretty good).

The problem you run into is that most of the teams (like the Knicks) that you would expect to have interest because they see themselves as contenders have already traded away a lot of stuff to get themselves where they are.

The other place to look would be the teams that own the rights to future Milwaukee firsts - New Orleans, Portland, Atlanta. New Orleans and Portland don't make sense. Atlanta only has a potential swap, so it doesn't have a ton to offer. But it would make sense to involve them as a third team to try to get those draft assets directed to Milwaukee in an eventual deal.

You're using knowledge of the results years later to compare with what teams will do now. The teams made those trades based on their current knowledge. Doesn't matter how the trades turned out, what matters is what they traded and why at that time.

This is obviously false. Teams learn from the mistakes they and other teams make. (See, e.g., Patrick WIlliams/Josh Giddey)

When you say those trades don't work, the player would have to have left after two years, leaving the team with nothing. Even more, if you're saying it's bad they are still on the team at max, wouldn't it have been better for the team if they left? Traded max players almost always re-sign, the guys who don't bounce from team to team like Harden and Lebron. Not even Kawhi, he didn't want to go to the Raptors, and he's been loyal to the Clippers, where he wanted to be.

No, I don’t agree with this. And the Kawhi example is weird to bring up since it totally undercuts your point.

Let's be real, Giannis will likely go to a team he likes, if not his top choice. Probably in his top 3-4 choices. I'm sure they will talk about long term with Giannis and his agents before the trade, lay out their whole plan. All the team has to do is their part, put a winning team around him. You don't do that, you don't deserve to keep him, imo.

I do not believe Kawhi will necessarily go to a team he wants if he’s traded this year.

His teammate Lillard had more than two years left on his contract, more valuable right? Worked out great for the Bucks having those extra years. Same with Bradley Beal, those extra 2 years working out for them?

lol, you started this post by saying you can’t look at how things worked out, but can only look at things at the time of the trade, and then you do the exact opposite.

[jnrjr79]

I think I'm in between you guys on Giannis's trade value. Sparkle says he's going to get a motherload we couldn't possibly match, Jnrjr is at 3 firsts because he has two years left. I think we could get him if everything goes just right, but it would cost more picks than that. Depending on what the Bucks are looking for, of course. That's a huge variable.

Would have the long term re-sign decision talk up front. Would try to get Holiday and bring his brother Thanassis to increase that likelihood.

Can somebody please give some of these better packages (not teams, trade packages) the Bucks will realistically receive better than a Bulls package that includes Giddey and not Matas? Matas is super hyped in here and Giddey undervalued imo, not sure all or even most of the league would say Matas is more valuable than Giddey right now. Who is this centerpiece young guy, how old are they and how much do they cost? How long is their contract, Giddey's is 4 years?

Any team getting Giannis is going to gut their team of either young player, big expirings and many picks, or expensive current star, MAYBE good young player and less picks. Which looks better to the Bucks?

I can't really debate our package versus random team's package with no idea of what that other package is, lmao! Hopefully it's better than KAT and some weak picks. Giannis may want to stay in the East as well, way easier path to a ring than fighting through the West and he's been here his whole career. He really care about wins and contending, that is a factor.

Do you all think adding Jrue would make it easier to get Giannis to want to come here? I do, but that's me.

Just to be clear, 3 1sts is how many 1sts I think will be involved, not the total package.

[Infinity2152]

I think I'm in between you guys on Giannis's trade value. Sparkle says he's going to get a motherload we couldn't possibly match, Jnrjr is at 3 firsts because he has two years left. I think we could get him if everything goes just right, but it would cost more picks than that. Depending on what the Bucks are looking for, of course. That's a huge variable.

Would have the long term re-sign decision talk up front. Would try to get Holiday and bring his brother Thanassis to increase that likelihood.

Can somebody please give some of these better packages (not teams, trade packages) the Bucks will realistically receive better than a Bulls package that includes Giddey and not Matas? Matas is super hyped in here and Giddey undervalued imo, not sure all or even most of the league would say Matas is more valuable than Giddey right now. Who is this centerpiece young guy, how old are they and how much do they cost? How long is their contract, Giddey's is 4 years?

Any team getting Giannis is going to gut their team of either young player, big expirings and many picks, or expensive current star, MAYBE good young player and less picks. Which looks better to the Bucks?

I can't really debate our package versus random team's package with no idea of what that other package is, lmao! Hopefully it's better than KAT and some weak picks. Giannis may want to stay in the East as well, way easier path to a ring than fighting through the West and he's been here his whole career. He really care about wins and contending, that is a factor.

Do you all think adding Jrue would make it easier to get Giannis to want to come here? I do, but that's me.

Just to be clear, 3 1sts is how many 1sts I think will be involved, not the total package.

I actually started the discussion with a potential trade for Giannis. Then started to receive opinions with no facts as to how and why he's only getting so many picks, etc. Then I allowed myself to be distracted, could point out 10,000 other trades of players at Giannis level or lower that got more than three picks with two years or less on their contract, and it still wouldn't matter.

We're not including the rest of the package? Obviously, the better players Bucks receive, the less picks, and vice versa. Saying they will only get three picks is what it is, because 3 1sts are not just 3 1sts. 3 1sts could be unprotected first every other year for the next 6 years, or highly protected picks that may or may not convey years from now, like the Portland pick we've been holding for years. How can you ever say how many firsts a player can get without defining team, year and protections? When I said 5 picks, I meant 5 Bulls picks, some protections. Likely very low picks with Giannis here. Giddey as the trade centerpiece. What team's 3 picks and what year and what protections are you talking about? The three firsts the Knicks have over the next 5 years? Trash, best pick 2026 lottery protected 1-8 Washington pick unlikely to convey next year.

If Banchero is the core piece of the trade, or Jalen Brown, could easily see three "firsts" being the limit. I don't think they'll look for an expensive player at that level, so would require more picks. I place a high value on Giddey, they may too, but probably far less than Brown or Banchero. Have asked repeatedly for alternate trade proposals, gets annoying to continually defend ideas to improve the Bulls when no alternate ones are being presented. Other than just wait.

Like I keep seeing other teams will easily just beat us out. Not necessarily you, too many arguments to go back and check who it was. What teams and what are the offers?

[jnrjr79]

I think I'm in between you guys on Giannis's trade value. Sparkle says he's going to get a motherload we couldn't possibly match, Jnrjr is at 3 firsts because he has two years left. I think we could get him if everything goes just right, but it would cost more picks than that. Depending on what the Bucks are looking for, of course. That's a huge variable.

Would have the long term re-sign decision talk up front. Would try to get Holiday and bring his brother Thanassis to increase that likelihood.

Can somebody please give some of these better packages (not teams, trade packages) the Bucks will realistically receive better than a Bulls package that includes Giddey and not Matas? Matas is super hyped in here and Giddey undervalued imo, not sure all or even most of the league would say Matas is more valuable than Giddey right now. Who is this centerpiece young guy, how old are they and how much do they cost? How long is their contract, Giddey's is 4 years?

Any team getting Giannis is going to gut their team of either young player, big expirings and many picks, or expensive current star, MAYBE good young player and less picks. Which looks better to the Bucks?

I can't really debate our package versus random team's package with no idea of what that other package is, lmao! Hopefully it's better than KAT and some weak picks. Giannis may want to stay in the East as well, way easier path to a ring than fighting through the West and he's been here his whole career. He really care about wins and contending, that is a factor.

Do you all think adding Jrue would make it easier to get Giannis to want to come here? I do, but that's me.

Just to be clear, 3 1sts is how many 1sts I think will be involved, not the total package.

I actually started the discussion with a potential trade for Giannis. Then started to receive opinions with no facts as to how and why he's only getting so many picks, etc. Then I allowed myself to be distracted, could point out 10,000 other trades of players at Giannis level or lower that got more than three picks with two years or less on their contract, and it still wouldn't matter.

We're not including the rest of the package? Obviously, the better players Bucks receive, the less picks, and vice versa. Saying they will only get three picks is what it is, because 3 1sts are not just 3 1sts. 3 1sts could be unprotected first every other year for the next 6 years, or highly protected picks that may or may not convey years from now, like the Portland pick we've been holding for years. How can you ever say how many firsts a player can get without defining team, year and protections? When I said 5 picks, I meant 5 Bulls picks, some protections. Likely very low picks with Giannis here. Giddey as the trade centerpiece. What team's 3 picks and what year and what protections are you talking about? The three firsts the Knicks have over the next 5 years? Trash, best pick 2026 lottery protected 1-8 Washington pick unlikely to convey next year.

If Banchero is the core piece of the trade, or Jalen Brown, could easily see three "firsts" being the limit. I don't think they'll look for an expensive player at that level, so would require more picks. I place a high value on Giddey, they may too, but probably far less than Brown or Banchero. Have asked repeatedly for alternate trade proposals, gets annoying to continually defend ideas to improve the Bulls when no alternate ones are being presented. Other than just wait.

Like I keep seeing other teams will easily just beat us out. Not necessarily you, too many arguments to go back and check who it was. What teams and what are the offers?

Saying stuff like the bolded is so weird. This is a basketball message board. We’re all just speculating on what we think. Of course this inherently an opinion-based kind of deal. But saying nobody is including “facts” at all is obviously just not telling the truth. I went back through the actual historical record of recent big trades and talked about how I would think those would inform a current front office.

In any event, in terms of total package, I’d expect something like 3 1sts, additional 2nds and/or swaps, a promising young player, and expiring salary.

[Infinity2152]

Okay, let's try a different tact. When you say 3 1sts, what is the equivalent value of those three firsts? Give me a player, cap space, some frame of reference as to the value of 3 1sts. You said you don't think the number 10 pick could get 3-4 firsts in a trade, even though Phoenix got 3 with less last year. We own a protected Portland first. Is that as valuable as our 2026 first? Are the Knicks, a contender the last few years, are their firsts equals to ours? You have an idea of what 3 firsts means to you, I don't. I don't think most deals with 3 firsts include every other year from the receiving team, for instance.

I can't assign a pick value to a Giannis trade, especially without knowing what players are going and what the picks are. When I used a number of picks, it's specifically Bulls picks. Giddey is the young player. Value of those picks based on Matas, Holiday/Fox/equal player on the team with cap space and roster spots in the summer. Maybe the Portland pick is one of them. I view those as likely extremely low value picks, based on those conditions. Imagine the Bucks would too. Any season Giannis is healthy, we're in the playoffs.


So I need a frame of reference for the three firsts you're talking about, as well as some idea of player level the Bucks are getting, to even compare. Are we using the Luka trade, where they got AD back? Because every other top 5-10 player traded with at least two years has gotten a way better package than you're describing, at least up to their mid 30's. I could see 37 year old Durant getting that package with two years left, maybe. That's close to his trade deal as an expiring. Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, pick 10, pick 31, pick 41, Daequon Plowden, 2 second round picks.

Is 37 year old expiring KD equal to 30 year old Giannis with two years and a third year option, or should a team expect more for Giannis? Maybe I missed the superstar trades historically you posted that only returned 3 picks, mind repeating them? I could have missed them, I'll admit. Those would certainly be facts, actual trades that happened, we could compare with.

What are we arguing? You stated teams learn from their mistakes, as in if they make one mistake they won't do it again? You brought up Patrick Williams re-signing. Was that AK's first overpay? Did he learn from paying Lavine and Vucevic? He did good with Giddey, no chance he overpays Coby next summer? You 100% sure he won't repeat his mistake with Pat?

What facts prove a) that what you judge is a mistake is a mistake, b) every team in the league feels the same way you do about every deal, and c) said random team has even made a recent mistake to learn from? Or is the implication that now since the Patrick Williams contract has been signed, no team will overpay a player again? Every team learned from the Bulls mistake?

OKC just maxed Chet Holgrem and Jalen Williams, many would argue those are not max players. Bucks stretched Lillard's contract to add mid Myles turner and added $20 mill to their cap the next 3 years or so. Is everybody going to agree those are great financial moves?

[WesPeace]

OMG dude.. always whole page novels for everything and all theories! Whenever I check here, its you Infinity Vs someone lol.. its no fun reading this, less is more

[Infinity2152]

OMG dude.. always whole page novels for everything and all theories! Whenever I check here, its you Infinity Vs someone lol.. its no fun reading this, less is more

Easy fix, skip my posts. Ignore the fact that I'm responding back and forth, I'm not just talking to myself, lmao! No complaints for the other side of the conversation? Better yet, post the time I started the Infinity versus, where I criticized someone else's trade proposal first.

[pipfan]

So I'll try a Giannis to Chi deal. Doubt Milw would do it, but here goes. We add Turner, since it seems as if they are buddies and they're a great fit. The total cost is $80 million. The assumption is that the Bucks are about a 6th seed, and the Bulls are a 8-10 seed at the time of the trade.
Giddey (he has to play very well to start the year)
White (same-good play of at least 22/game)
Noa (sporadic minutes but promising)
Vuc (expiring)
Collins (also expiring)
JCarter and DTerry (both needed to add Kuz)
Bulls' 2026, 28, 30 unprotected 1sts, plus 27/29 swaps
Port pick

For Giannis, Turner, Kuz

Milw stays competitive with Porter/White/Giddey/Portis/Vuc, and a bench of some ok vets. They add 6 total picks (2027 swap probably worthless)
Maybe add Portland to get their pick back and one of Milw's picks back?

Bulls go with
Ayo/Jones
Huerter/Okoro
Matas/PWill
Giannis/Kuz
Turner/JSmith

I don't think that's enough-I think Milw insists on Giddey, White and Matas plus picks-which might be too much for us

[sco]

So I'll try a Giannis to Chi deal. Doubt Milw would do it, but here goes. We add Turner, since it seems as if they are buddies and they're a great fit. The total cost is $80 million. The assumption is that the Bucks are about a 6th seed, and the Bulls are a 8-10 seed at the time of the trade.
Giddey (he has to play very well to start the year)
White (same-good play of at least 22/game)
Noa (sporadic minutes but promising)
Vuc (expiring)
Collins (also expiring)
JCarter and DTerry (both needed to add Kuz)
Bulls' 2026, 28, 30 unprotected 1sts, plus 27/29 swaps
Port pick

For Giannis, Turner, Kuz

Milw stays competitive with Porter/White/Giddey/Portis/Vuc, and a bench of some ok vets. They add 6 total picks (2027 swap probably worthless)
Maybe add Portland to get their pick back and one of Milw's picks back?

Bulls go with
Ayo/Jones
Huerter/Okoro
Matas/PWill
Giannis/Kuz
Turner/JSmith

I don't think that's enough-I think Milw insists on Giddey, White and Matas plus picks-which might be too much for us

Good one!

I'm not interested in any deal that costs us Matas.

Maybe the way to go is to let someone else nab Giannis, and if they are targeting a rebuild, we come back to them with a proposal for Turner.

I'd be ok including Coby in that deal, although I'd prefer going with a package of a first and expirings.

[Rose2Boozer]

The Bulls send two second round draft picks to the Suns for Nick Richards.

The Bulls buyout Nikola Vucevic, allowing him to sign with a championship contender.

[Infinity2152]

So I'll try a Giannis to Chi deal. Doubt Milw would do it, but here goes. We add Turner, since it seems as if they are buddies and they're a great fit. The total cost is $80 million. The assumption is that the Bucks are about a 6th seed, and the Bulls are a 8-10 seed at the time of the trade.
Giddey (he has to play very well to start the year)
White (same-good play of at least 22/game)
Noa (sporadic minutes but promising)
Vuc (expiring)
Collins (also expiring)
JCarter and DTerry (both needed to add Kuz)
Bulls' 2026, 28, 30 unprotected 1sts, plus 27/29 swaps
Port pick

For Giannis, Turner, Kuz

Milw stays competitive with Porter/White/Giddey/Portis/Vuc, and a bench of some ok vets. They add 6 total picks (2027 swap probably worthless)
Maybe add Portland to get their pick back and one of Milw's picks back?

Bulls go with
Ayo/Jones
Huerter/Okoro
Matas/PWill
Giannis/Kuz
Turner/JSmith

I don't think that's enough-I think Milw insists on Giddey, White and Matas plus picks-which might be too much for us

If the Bucks decide to move Giannis, I think they'd be insane to turn that deal down, hard to see how it could be better for them. Especially if Coby and Giddey are playing well.

Two young good-great starters, one locked up on a good contract for 4 years. 2025 lottery pick that hasn't even played yet. Four first round picks. two pick swaps. Plus getting off Turner and Kuzma's contracts and getting $50 mill in expiring money. What more could they want?

We're sending 7 players in that deal and getting 3 back, although Thanasis probably comes. Think we'd need a third team. Bucks would have to send out 3-4 more players somewhere, maybe they add even more assets.

[Donkedave]

The Bulls send two second round draft picks to the Suns for Nick Richards.

The Bulls buyout Nikola Vucevic, allowing him to sign with a championship contender.

I don’t think any contender will be able to sign Vucevic if he got bought out. Earns to much? The limit is the MLE I think

[Indomitable]

The Bulls send two second round draft picks to the Suns for Nick Richards.

The Bulls buyout Nikola Vucevic, allowing him to sign with a championship contender.

Just sign him in the off season. Stop wasting assets

[WesPeace]

At this point if we get some 3rd string younger center and 2nd round pick, you do that trade for Vooch.

[sco]

Saw notion refloated by a quasi reporter in SF: Vuc to GSW.

I can't see it working with their salary structure and our roster constraints.

[sco]

Saw notion refloated by a quasi reporter in SF: Vuc to GSW.

I can't see it working with their salary structure and our roster constraints.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/article/warriors-predicted-land-6-foot-193022266.html

[jnrjr79]

The Bulls send two second round draft picks to the Suns for Nick Richards.

The Bulls buyout Nikola Vucevic, allowing him to sign with a championship contender.

I don’t think any contender will be able to sign Vucevic if he got bought out. Earns to much? The limit is the MLE I think

If he's bought out, he can be signed for the minimum.

[samwana]

Saw notion refloated by a quasi reporter in SF: Vuc to GSW.

I can't see it working with their salary structure and our roster constraints.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/article/warriors-predicted-land-6-foot-193022266.html

Vooch turned into a Swiss center according to this article. As much as I want him gone, this seems to be a clickbait piece with no credibility.

[WesPeace]

Saw notion refloated by a quasi reporter in SF: Vuc to GSW.

I can't see it working with their salary structure and our roster constraints.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/article/warriors-predicted-land-6-foot-193022266.html

Vooch turned into a Swiss center according to this article. As much as I want him gone, this seems to be a clickbait piece with no credibility.

Yeah lol, how the hell they mix up Switzerland with Monte Negro??