Raps vs Wiz Preseason -Sun Oct 12 3PM EST

[YogurtProducer]

You said he really only put up good numbers on bad teams. That's actually a point in his favour, not against him. It's more difficult to put up high effeciency on a team like last season's Raptors. Last season was a step back, but it doesn't really tell us where he's at now with this new roster.

Yeah people want the team to tank AND every young player to take a leap. Otherwise they garbage.

Who said anything about a leap? Just don't take a massive step back instead after you get a Max extension.

I'm open to the possibility he bounces back this season, but the excuses need to stop. It's always someone or something else's fault other than Scottie.

He stagnated for the most part, and went from being a 20/8/6 guy to being a... 20/8/6 guy on lower 3 point shooting %'s on lower volume (which is so low, the drop in % only really accounted for ~0.5ppg)

That is not a "massive step back", and almost entirely I would chalk up to being a garbage season. FWIW - Barnes best stretch of his career was just before we traded OG/Siakam (24/10/6 on 63TS% just before OG was gone), and really since then he has been very meh. The hope is with better players around him again, he thrives.

[PushDaRock]

I can't tell if you truly don't understand what I'm saying, or if this is your way of trying to get out of a bad take.

I mentioned that his advanced metrics improved even while playing on bad teams, which makes it even more impressive since it's tougher to do that without strong teammates.

lol no I don't know what you're trying to say.

Come on man his point is quite clear.

He is saying a positive to take from his last year is that his advanced metrics saw improvement, which is impressive on a garbage team like we had last year.

I don't even know what metrics he is referring to, but it isn't rocket science to recognize his position.

How is it clear when there is no reference to what advanced metrics actually improved last season on offense?

[PushDaRock]

Yeah people want the team to tank AND every young player to take a leap. Otherwise they garbage.

Who said anything about a leap? Just don't take a massive step back instead after you get a Max extension.

I'm open to the possibility he bounces back this season, but the excuses need to stop. It's always someone or something else's fault other than Scottie.

He stagnated for the most part, and went from being a 20/8/6 guy to being a... 20/8/6 guy on lower 3 point shooting %'s on lower volume (which is so low, the drop in % only really accounted for ~0.5ppg)

That is not a "massive step back", and almost entirely I would chalk up to being a garbage season. FWIW - Barnes best stretch of his career was just before we traded OG/Siakam (24/10/6 on 63TS% just before OG was gone), and really since then he has been very meh. The hope is with better players around him again, he thrives.

I think a drop to 52 TS% is a massive step back. What Max level player has done something like that in recent times?

Yes, and we all were encouraged by that stretch of play. In hindsight now, it's looking just like an outlier hot shooting streak from 3 that isn't close to sustainable for him. Just like we had 13 game Bargnani, we will always have 13 game Scottie to remember as well.

[MoneyBall]

lol no I don't know what you're trying to say.

Come on man his point is quite clear.

He is saying a positive to take from his last year is that his advanced metrics saw improvement, which is impressive on a garbage team like we had last year.

I don't even know what metrics he is referring to, but it isn't rocket science to recognize his position.

How is it clear when there is no reference to what advanced metrics actually improved last season on offense?

You said:

"Scottie has really only put up decent raw numbers on dumpster fire teams."

You're implying that Scottie's decent numbers are merely a result of stat padding with high volume/low effeciency on bad teams. My response is his advanced metrics don't show that. Last season was a step back from yr 3, but yr 3 was also a major step forward from yrs 2 and 1. His BPM of 3.7 in yr 3 is quite remarkable and his 2.4 in yr 4 is nothing to scoff at.

Putting up good numbers of that sort on bad teams is actually more impressive than if he had done it on strong, experienced, and well balanced rosters.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

15.3ppg to 19.9ppg, that's decent but not earth shattering. Like, he's not holding 20ppg.

This is kind of who he is at this point. A sub 20ppg player.

[Courtside]

Not just raw numbers, but his advanced metrics were on the rise until last season. Improving in those metrics whilst still on bad teams is actually a point in his favour rather than against him.

Yes and we can't ignore that last season happened. 19 ppg on 52 TS% is horrific.

You said he really only put up good numbers on bad teams. That's actually a point in his favour, not against him. It's more difficult to put up high effeciency on a team like last season's Raptors. Last season was a step back, but it doesn't really tell us where he's at now with this new roster.

It also matters that the team was very deliberately not trying to win, and that's a tough state for players who aren't ballhogs or chuckers to excel in. They were experimenting a bunch in terms of player mix on the floor, and having guys work on weak parts of their game, because the results didn't matter. Scottie is one of those guys who elevates their play when in matters, so we need to see how he does on this team - a team trying to turn the corner and start winning.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

Honestly, on a team that was actively tanking. He should have been closer to 23-24ppg last year.

[YogurtProducer]

Who said anything about a leap? Just don't take a massive step back instead after you get a Max extension.

I'm open to the possibility he bounces back this season, but the excuses need to stop. It's always someone or something else's fault other than Scottie.

He stagnated for the most part, and went from being a 20/8/6 guy to being a... 20/8/6 guy on lower 3 point shooting %'s on lower volume (which is so low, the drop in % only really accounted for ~0.5ppg)

That is not a "massive step back", and almost entirely I would chalk up to being a garbage season. FWIW - Barnes best stretch of his career was just before we traded OG/Siakam (24/10/6 on 63TS% just before OG was gone), and really since then he has been very meh. The hope is with better players around him again, he thrives.

I think a drop to 52 TS% is a massive step back. What Max level player has done something like that in recent times?

Yes, and we all were encouraged by that stretch of play. In hindsight now, it's looking just like an outlier hot shooting streak from 3 that isn't close to sustainable for him. Just like we had 13 game Bargnani, we will always have 13 game Scottie to remember as well.

Paolo Banchero is a career 54.2TS% player and I don't really see you bitching about that.

But either way, everyone knows the path to Scottie being a worthy max guy. Elite defender who is better than average offensively. Hyper focusing on his efficiency struggles when he was asked to do more than he should be is just a weird slant to go at, to be frank.

[YogurtProducer]

Yes and we can't ignore that last season happened. 19 ppg on 52 TS% is horrific.

You said he really only put up good numbers on bad teams. That's actually a point in his favour, not against him. It's more difficult to put up high effeciency on a team like last season's Raptors. Last season was a step back, but it doesn't really tell us where he's at now with this new roster.

It also matters that the team was very deliberately not trying to win, and that's a tough state for players who aren't ballhogs or chuckers to excel in. They were experimenting a bunch in terms of player mix on the floor, and having guys work on weak parts of their game, because the results didn't matter. Scottie is one of those guys who elevates their play when in matters, so we need to see how he does on this team - a team trying to turn the corner and start winning.

Very important to remember this.

If Scottie has a 52TS% year this year, then we can really be super worried.

And I am not even a huge Scottie fan, but this angle is just really weird

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

It's his shots (volume), those are going down.

[PushDaRock]

Come on man his point is quite clear.

He is saying a positive to take from his last year is that his advanced metrics saw improvement, which is impressive on a garbage team like we had last year.

I don't even know what metrics he is referring to, but it isn't rocket science to recognize his position.

How is it clear when there is no reference to what advanced metrics actually improved last season on offense?

You said:

"Scottie has really only put up decent raw numbers on dumpster fire teams."

You're implying that Scottie's decent numbers are merely a result of stat padding with high volume/low effeciency on bad teams. My response is his advanced metrics don't show that. Last season was a step back from yr 3, but yr 3 was also a major step forward from yrs 2 and 1. His BPM of 3.7 in yr 3 is quite remarkable and his 2.4 in yr 4 is nothing to scoff at.

Putting up good numbers of that sort on bad teams is actually more impressive than if he had done it on strong, experienced, and well balanced rosters.

What I am saying is he scored 19-20 ppg on bad teams where someone has to score (stat padding) and he also did it while being very inefficient. That scoring volume on poor efficiency is very unlikely to translate over onto a winning team is what I meant. Good teams don't have a guy punting that many possessions on offense generally speaking.

Sure, the BPM numbers put him in a better light. He was 44th in BPM (61st in OBPM) and 85th (131st in OEPM) in EPM last season. Those are metrics where you can say he's a net positive on the court but it's also nothing special in terms of impact. A lot of it is also obviously driven by his defense which nobody complains about, but we are talking about his offense primarily here.

[ATLTimekeeper]

You said he really only put up good numbers on bad teams. That's actually a point in his favour, not against him. It's more difficult to put up high effeciency on a team like last season's Raptors. Last season was a step back, but it doesn't really tell us where he's at now with this new roster.

It also matters that the team was very deliberately not trying to win, and that's a tough state for players who aren't ballhogs or chuckers to excel in. They were experimenting a bunch in terms of player mix on the floor, and having guys work on weak parts of their game, because the results didn't matter. Scottie is one of those guys who elevates their play when in matters, so we need to see how he does on this team - a team trying to turn the corner and start winning.

Very important to remember this.

If Scottie has a 52TS% year this year, then we can really be super worried.

And I am not even a huge Scottie fan, but this angle is just really weird

The 'elevates play when it matters' is super speculative. He has 4 playoff games under his belt as a rookie, pretty much same numbers. And he was good in the play-in game. He got the whole '4th quarter Scottie' rep from just playing more minutes than everyone else in the 4th.

Like, the team has already soft launched Scottie has a lesser component here. He either buys in or gets shipped out.

[PushDaRock]

He stagnated for the most part, and went from being a 20/8/6 guy to being a... 20/8/6 guy on lower 3 point shooting %'s on lower volume (which is so low, the drop in % only really accounted for ~0.5ppg)

That is not a "massive step back", and almost entirely I would chalk up to being a garbage season. FWIW - Barnes best stretch of his career was just before we traded OG/Siakam (24/10/6 on 63TS% just before OG was gone), and really since then he has been very meh. The hope is with better players around him again, he thrives.

I think a drop to 52 TS% is a massive step back. What Max level player has done something like that in recent times?

Yes, and we all were encouraged by that stretch of play. In hindsight now, it's looking just like an outlier hot shooting streak from 3 that isn't close to sustainable for him. Just like we had 13 game Bargnani, we will always have 13 game Scottie to remember as well.

Paolo Banchero is a career 54.2TS% player and I don't really see you bitching about that.

But either way, everyone knows the path to Scottie being a worthy max guy. Elite defender who is better than average offensively. Hyper focusing on his efficiency struggles when he was asked to do more than he should be is just a weird slant to go at, to be frank.

Do I need to make a Paolo sucks thread to make feelings clear that Paolo needs to get more efficient? I've also criticized him plenty about his on court and on/off splits which is in stark contrast to Franz. What Paolo has going for him though is his raw production has gone up every season despite the efficiency issues.

If Scottie was scoring 25 ppg instead of 19 ppg on 52 TS%, obviously I would say he needs to get more efficient but I would also be far more encouraged about his future outlook because there is a likely path to either improve his efficiency or scale down USG to get more efficient and still be scoring over 20 a game. If Barnes scales down USG now, he's down to maybe a 15-16 ppg and we still don't know if he will be reasonably efficient on that volume based on his track record where he hasn't been.

[PushDaRock]

Yes and we can't ignore that last season happened. 19 ppg on 52 TS% is horrific.

You said he really only put up good numbers on bad teams. That's actually a point in his favour, not against him. It's more difficult to put up high effeciency on a team like last season's Raptors. Last season was a step back, but it doesn't really tell us where he's at now with this new roster.

It also matters that the team was very deliberately not trying to win, and that's a tough state for players who aren't ballhogs or chuckers to excel in. They were experimenting a bunch in terms of player mix on the floor, and having guys work on weak parts of their game, because the results didn't matter. Scottie is one of those guys who elevates their play when in matters, so we need to see how he does on this team - a team trying to turn the corner and start winning.

I'm just not a fan of the excuses. We can hand them out to the entire team if we want to since practically everyone was put in positions that weren't optimal for the most part. I'm certainly hoping he can certainly surprise to the upside, he is talented and shows flashes of elite skill level at times but he's never shown the ability to be consistent with it. Even the motor is on and off. When he's doing well, he's engaged, clapping and high energy. When he's struggling, he sulks.

[PushDaRock]

You said he really only put up good numbers on bad teams. That's actually a point in his favour, not against him. It's more difficult to put up high effeciency on a team like last season's Raptors. Last season was a step back, but it doesn't really tell us where he's at now with this new roster.

It also matters that the team was very deliberately not trying to win, and that's a tough state for players who aren't ballhogs or chuckers to excel in. They were experimenting a bunch in terms of player mix on the floor, and having guys work on weak parts of their game, because the results didn't matter. Scottie is one of those guys who elevates their play when in matters, so we need to see how he does on this team - a team trying to turn the corner and start winning.

Very important to remember this.

If Scottie has a 52TS% year this year, then we can really be super worried.

And I am not even a huge Scottie fan, but this angle is just really weird

I expect him to be better than 52 TS% because I also expect his USG to be down. I think we are looking at 15-17 ppg at probably around 55-57 TS%. I am expecting at least some improvement to the efficiency from not actively tanking. Not great or even good by any means and not worth the max IMO but not as horrific what he was doing last season.

[YogurtProducer]

The 'elevates play when it matters' is super speculative. He has 4 playoff games under his belt as a rookie, pretty much same numbers. And he was good in the play-in game. He got the whole '4th quarter Scottie' rep from just playing more minutes than everyone else in the 4th.

Like, the team has already soft launched Scottie has a lesser component here. He either buys in or gets shipped out.

Brining up Scotties playoff games are weird as:

a) he was a rookie
B) he left his 2nd game early with injury, and was hobbled for game 3 and 4.
C) he put up 15/10/8 in his only fully healthy game

I expect him to be better than 52 TS% because I also expect his USG to be down. I think we are looking at 15-17 ppg at probably around 55-57 TS%. I am expecting at least some improvement to the efficiency from not actively tanking. Not great or even good by any means and not worth the max IMO but not as horrific what he was doing last season.

If he puts up say, 16/8/6 on 57TS% and gives us great-elite defence that is 100% a max guy. Again, hyperfocusing on scoring, when his best offensive abilities would be play making anyways, is just strange.

But either way - that is likely selling him short as he already has a 20ppg season on 57TS% under his belt.

His best case scenario is Draymond Green with some more offensive capabilities and below being one of the best of all-time level defensive players. Still a hell of a player, and certainly worthy of being the 37th-55thish highest paid player in the NBA (as he will be over the next 5 years).

[ATLTimekeeper]

The 'elevates play when it matters' is super speculative. He has 4 playoff games under his belt as a rookie, pretty much same numbers. And he was good in the play-in game. He got the whole '4th quarter Scottie' rep from just playing more minutes than everyone else in the 4th.

Like, the team has already soft launched Scottie has a lesser component here. He either buys in or gets shipped out.

Brining up Scotties playoff games are weird as:

a) he was a rookie
B) he left his 2nd game early with injury, and was hobbled for game 3 and 4.
C) he put up 15/10/8 in his only fully healthy game

How is it weird? It was a response to 'elevating play when it matters' and my opinion that that claim is speculative. The small sample is the point.

This team was only ever good when 1) Scottie was a 5th option rookie and 2) The Raptors traded for Jakob Poeltl to play PnR with Fred VanVleet.

Scottie hasn't had a lot of experience playing meaningful basketball here, and of course, none with responsibility.

[PushDaRock]

The 'elevates play when it matters' is super speculative. He has 4 playoff games under his belt as a rookie, pretty much same numbers. And he was good in the play-in game. He got the whole '4th quarter Scottie' rep from just playing more minutes than everyone else in the 4th.

Like, the team has already soft launched Scottie has a lesser component here. He either buys in or gets shipped out.

Brining up Scotties playoff games are weird as:

a) he was a rookie
B) he left his 2nd game early with injury, and was hobbled for game 3 and 4.
C) he put up 15/10/8 in his only fully healthy game

I expect him to be better than 52 TS% because I also expect his USG to be down. I think we are looking at 15-17 ppg at probably around 55-57 TS%. I am expecting at least some improvement to the efficiency from not actively tanking. Not great or even good by any means and not worth the max IMO but not as horrific what he was doing last season.

If he puts up say, 16/8/6 on 57TS% and gives us great-elite defence that is 100% a max guy. Again, hyperfocusing on scoring, when his best offensive abilities would be play making anyways, is just strange.

But either way - that is likely selling him short as he already has a 20ppg season on 57TS% under his belt.

His best case scenario is Draymond Green with some more offensive capabilities and below being one of the best of all-time level defensive players. Still a hell of a player, and certainly worthy of being the 37th-55thish highest paid player in the NBA (as he will be over the next 5 years).

I only see those numbers being worth Max Money if he's doing it on a championship level team and impacting winning way beyond numbers.

Draymond has also never made Max Money in his entire career. I would think it's pretty unlikely Scottie will ever have the same type of impact on winning as Draymond in his career. If he does, nobody would be complaining about the money.

That 20 ppg on 57 TS% was on a offensively challenged team where somebody had to score and outlier 3 point shooting that does not look repeatable. I hope he surprises to the upside but I'm not all that optimistic it happens.

[YogurtProducer]

The 'elevates play when it matters' is super speculative. He has 4 playoff games under his belt as a rookie, pretty much same numbers. And he was good in the play-in game. He got the whole '4th quarter Scottie' rep from just playing more minutes than everyone else in the 4th.

Like, the team has already soft launched Scottie has a lesser component here. He either buys in or gets shipped out.

Brining up Scotties playoff games are weird as:

a) he was a rookie
B) he left his 2nd game early with injury, and was hobbled for game 3 and 4.
C) he put up 15/10/8 in his only fully healthy game

I expect him to be better than 52 TS% because I also expect his USG to be down. I think we are looking at 15-17 ppg at probably around 55-57 TS%. I am expecting at least some improvement to the efficiency from not actively tanking. Not great or even good by any means and not worth the max IMO but not as horrific what he was doing last season.

If he puts up say, 16/8/6 on 57TS% and gives us great-elite defence that is 100% a max guy. Again, hyperfocusing on scoring, when his best offensive abilities would be play making anyways, is just strange.

But either way - that is likely selling him short as he already has a 20ppg season on 57TS% under his belt.

His best case scenario is Draymond Green with some more offensive capabilities and below being one of the best of all-time level defensive players. Still a hell of a player, and certainly worthy of being the 37th-55thish highest paid player in the NBA (as he will be over the next 5 years).

I only see those numbers being worth Max Money if he's doing it on a championship level team and impacting winning way beyond numbers.

Draymond has also never made Max Money in his entire career. I would think it's pretty unlikely Scottie will ever have the same type of impact on winning as Draymond in his career. If he does, nobody would be complaining about the money.

That 20 ppg on 57 TS% was on an offensively challenged team where somebody had to score and outlier 3 point shooting that does not look repeatable. I hope he surprises to the upside but I'm not all that optimistic it happens.

Draymond also extended on a long deal before fully broke out - he would’ve been a max guy if he made it to FA. On a % of the cap basis, Draymond made what is equivalent to $32M in 2025/26 cap dollars.

But either way, 20ppg on 57TS% on a team that sucked on offence suggests you’d see him scale down for 15-17ppg on greater than 57TS%.

[PushDaRock]

Brining up Scotties playoff games are weird as:

a) he was a rookie
B) he left his 2nd game early with injury, and was hobbled for game 3 and 4.
C) he put up 15/10/8 in his only fully healthy game


If he puts up say, 16/8/6 on 57TS% and gives us great-elite defence that is 100% a max guy. Again, hyperfocusing on scoring, when his best offensive abilities would be play making anyways, is just strange.

But either way - that is likely selling him short as he already has a 20ppg season on 57TS% under his belt.

His best case scenario is Draymond Green with some more offensive capabilities and below being one of the best of all-time level defensive players. Still a hell of a player, and certainly worthy of being the 37th-55thish highest paid player in the NBA (as he will be over the next 5 years).

I only see those numbers being worth Max Money if he's doing it on a championship level team and impacting winning way beyond numbers.

Draymond has also never made Max Money in his entire career. I would think it's pretty unlikely Scottie will ever have the same type of impact on winning as Draymond in his career. If he does, nobody would be complaining about the money.

That 20 ppg on 57 TS% was on an offensively challenged team where somebody had to score and outlier 3 point shooting that does not look repeatable. I hope he surprises to the upside but I'm not all that optimistic it happens.

Draymond also extended on a long deal before fully broke out - he would’ve been a max guy if he made it to FA. On a % of the cap basis, Draymond made what is equivalent to $32M in 2025/26 cap dollars.

But either way, 20ppg on 57TS% on a team that sucked on offence suggests you’d see him scale down for 15-17ppg on greater than 57TS%.

He was an RFA, the Warriors lowballed him and he threatened to leave before they eventually caved but didn't give him the Max either. They won a Championship along with his defensive accolades that year, so I mean it's not like his value wasn't sky high already. And yes, people would be complaining quite a bit less if Scottie was making closer to 20% of the cap rather than 25%.

It doesn't necessarily suggest that because we have seen him on USG around 20% and still being very inefficient his first 2 seasons in the league. The issue with his game as a secondary type option is he doesn't do the off ball stuff like C&S, cuts to the basket and etc that would suggest he could be a lot more efficient with the ball less in his hands. His year 3 efficiency is entirely propped up by outlier 3 point shooting which he hasn't been able to replicate in any other year. If he can somehow reclaim that form and not be useless from 3, the outlook is a lot more positive.