Thinking Basketball Top25 Single Year Peaks of the Millennium

[canada_dry]

I don't think we should laud OKC's SRS ratings while taking a **** on OKC's defensive specialists. Defense was a big part of OKC's success, so we should try to avoid throwing out the baby with the bathwater. Russ's best ever SRS was the 2013 Thunder (+9.15). Best offense in the league, but also a very strong #4 ranked defense (-3.3 rDrtg). If Russ doesn't get hurt that year, that team might have won the title (though Miami and San Antonio were strong opponents). They had a better offense in 2016 (the best KD/Russ offense ever), but the SRS was "only" +7.1 because they didn't have as many good defenders (Waiters instead of Sefolosha, Enes Kanter instead of Perkins.) An improved Steven Adams, Russ/KD being in their primes, and playoffs health made this one of their best playoff runs.

Sefolosha and Roberson were REALLY good at defense. Fans longed for more offensive optimization for KD and Russ because it was frustrating at times to see how little spacing there was for Russ drives. However, that defense was still a big part of the success, even if it negatively impacted the offense. Getting Waiters or Kevin Martin helps the offense, at the expense of the defense. When you have multiple max contract mega stars, you don't always get to put 2-way players around them, especially not in that era.

Yeah heres another westbrook stat:

ZERO playoff series wins as the #1 player on his team in his career.

With some truly disastrous performances and losses post KD from 2017-2019.



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This is complete nonsense. He was better than KD in the playoffs in both 2014 and 2016. In fact, if KD had even played at Westbrook's level in those playoffs, I think they win the title one of those seasons.

Also, I don't know why you say 2017-2019 for disastrous performances when Russ had a 9.7 BPM and an on/off of +62.8 in the 2017 playoffs. He was fantastic that entire season including the loss to Houston.

No. Possibly playing better than and BEING better than are 2 VERY different things.

When it was HIS team? He won zero series. That's just a fact.

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[Tottery]

There is no world where Draymonds peak year is better than Howard's. Howard finished 2nd for MVP voting, won DpoY, 1st team all NBA and defensive team. Averaged 23 pts, 14 boards, and over 2 blocks per game.

List is already off to being weird...or should I say biased.

[iggymcfrack]

Yeah heres another westbrook stat:

ZERO playoff series wins as the #1 player on his team in his career.

With some truly disastrous performances and losses post KD from 2017-2019.



Sent from my SM-G960W using RealGM Forums mobile app

This is complete nonsense. He was better than KD in the playoffs in both 2014 and 2016. In fact, if KD had even played at Westbrook's level in those playoffs, I think they win the title one of those seasons.

Also, I don't know why you say 2017-2019 for disastrous performances when Russ had a 9.7 BPM and an on/off of +62.8 in the 2017 playoffs. He was fantastic that entire season including the loss to Houston.

No. Possibly playing better than and BEING better than are 2 VERY different things.

When it was HIS team? He won zero series. That's just a fact.

Sent from my SM-G960W using RealGM mobile app

So what? Why does it matter if someone else theoretically could have played better, but didn’t? Russ won the series as the player who was playing the best. Your thing’s just a stupid semantic difference.

Like in the spring of 1990 I could say “Magic never won a playoff series as the greatest player on his team” because Kareem was better all-time. But that would be stupid because in the actual games on the court, Magic was the more valuable player who was driving them to victory.

Your thing’s about roster quirks more than anything. Westbrook played 2 series as “the guy” and he had an on/off of +21.5 per 100 possessions during those series. Of course he’s not gonna win with his teammates performing so poorly.

[ShootersShoot]

There is no world where Draymonds peak year is better than Howard's. Howard finished 2nd for MVP voting, won DpoY, 1st team all NBA and defensive team. Averaged 23 pts, 14 boards, and over 2 blocks per game.

List is already off to being weird...or should I say biased.

Dwights peak was in the mvp discussion leading his team to the finals. If someone has draymond over him they are clueless.

[iggymcfrack]

There is no world where Draymonds peak year is better than Howard's. Howard finished 2nd for MVP voting, won DpoY, 1st team all NBA and defensive team. Averaged 23 pts, 14 boards, and over 2 blocks per game.

List is already off to being weird...or should I say biased.

Dwights peak was in the mvp discussion leading his team to the finals. If someone has draymond over him they are clueless.

Yeah, Dwight Howard was an MVP candidate... iin the regular season. Then in the playoffs, his team was better with him on the bench than the floor just like they were for 10 of his 12 playoff runs. In the 2009 Finals run, the Magic were +12.4 with Dwight on the bench and -0.3 with him actually on the floor.

If you look at career playoff RAPM, Draymond ranks #2 behind only LeBron. Dwight ranks #873 out of 1506 players. Here's their teams have performed with and without them in the playoffs over the course of their careers:

Warriors with Draymond on floor: +8.4
Warriors with Draymond on bench: -3.5

Dwight's teams when he's on floor: -1.0
Dwight's teams when he's on bench: +3.5

Draymond's an all-time playoff riser who has made the Warriors better when he plays without Curry than when Curry plays without him over a decade of playoff games. Dwight's an all-time playoff faller who basically turns into Demar Derozan once the playoffs start. Sometimes it's hard for the raw box numbers to reflect it, but Dwight's just not a smart player. Even when his numbers are good, his boneheaded plays just become more and more punishing when everyone else is locking in.

[Tottery]

There is no world where Draymonds peak year is better than Howard's. Howard finished 2nd for MVP voting, won DpoY, 1st team all NBA and defensive team. Averaged 23 pts, 14 boards, and over 2 blocks per game.

List is already off to being weird...or should I say biased.

Dwights peak was in the mvp discussion leading his team to the finals. If someone has draymond over him they are clueless.

Yeah, Dwight Howard was an MVP candidate... iin the regular season. Then in the playoffs, his team was better with him on the bench than the floor just like they were for 10 of his 12 playoff runs. In the 2009 Finals run, the Magic were +12.4 with Dwight on the bench and -0.3 with him actually on the floor.

If you look at career playoff RAPM, Draymond ranks #2 behind only LeBron. Dwight ranks #873 out of 1506 players. Here's their teams have performed with and without them in the playoffs over the course of their careers:

Warriors with Draymond on floor: +8.4
Warriors with Draymond on bench: -3.5

Dwight's teams when he's on floor: -1.0
Dwight's teams when he's on bench: +3.5

Draymond's an all-time playoff riser who has made the Warriors better when he plays without Curry than when Curry plays without him over a decade of playoff games. Dwight's an all-time playoff faller who basically turns into Demar Derozan once the playoffs start. Sometimes it's hard for the raw box numbers to reflect it, but Dwight's just not a smart player. Even when his numbers are good, his boneheaded plays just become more and more punishing when everyone else is locking in.

There are a lot of factors involved with such a statistic. Teammates, coaching, etc. Howard is clearly the better player when comparing 1 season peaks. Better scorer, rebounder, and arguably defender. Also took the magic to the Finals as the #1 option, despite your statistic.

Draymond has been a part of better teams for sure.

[iggymcfrack]

Dwights peak was in the mvp discussion leading his team to the finals. If someone has draymond over him they are clueless.

Yeah, Dwight Howard was an MVP candidate... iin the regular season. Then in the playoffs, his team was better with him on the bench than the floor just like they were for 10 of his 12 playoff runs. In the 2009 Finals run, the Magic were +12.4 with Dwight on the bench and -0.3 with him actually on the floor.

If you look at career playoff RAPM, Draymond ranks #2 behind only LeBron. Dwight ranks #873 out of 1506 players. Here's their teams have performed with and without them in the playoffs over the course of their careers:

Warriors with Draymond on floor: +8.4
Warriors with Draymond on bench: -3.5

Dwight's teams when he's on floor: -1.0
Dwight's teams when he's on bench: +3.5

Draymond's an all-time playoff riser who has made the Warriors better when he plays without Curry than when Curry plays without him over a decade of playoff games. Dwight's an all-time playoff faller who basically turns into Demar Derozan once the playoffs start. Sometimes it's hard for the raw box numbers to reflect it, but Dwight's just not a smart player. Even when his numbers are good, his boneheaded plays just become more and more punishing when everyone else is locking in.

There are a lot of factors involved with such a statistic. Teammates, coaching, etc. Howard is clearly the better player when comparing 1 season peaks. Better scorer, rebounder, and arguably defender. Also took the magic to the Finals as the #1 option, despite your statistic.

Draymond has been a part of better teams for sure.

The 2016 Warriors were better with Steph Curry on the bench and Draymond as their top player than any Dwight team ever was with him.

If I could never hear the words “#1 option” again in my life, that would be great. In soccer the guy who shoots the most is called the “striker”. It’s a position and it’s recognized that people at other positions can be more valuable.

Bur for some reason in basketball, it’s seen as some proof of import. Why not just look at the players in terms of how valuable they are? Draymond Green and Bill Russell are never gonna be the guys who shoot most for their team, but that doesn’t mean their passing and defense can’t be just as valuable as guys that shoot more.

If we were to break it down by skills, I’d say that Draymond’s edge as a passer/playmaker is larger than Dwight’s edge as a scorer especially if you look at their peak seasons as Draymond actually shot the ball shockingly well in 2015/16 season.

On defense, Draymond is massively better. It’s not close. Draymond has the best playoff defensive impact signals ever and is one of the best 5-8 defenders in the history of the game. Dwight puts up the raw block numbers, but he’s actually one of the worst players of all-time in terms of goaltending rate and blocking the ball out of bounds instead of back to a teammate. The stat I saw was that Duncan goaltended the ball on one of every 250 blocks and Dwight did it once every 5 blocks.

It really nerfs the value of his shot blocking all the easy points he give up. He’s probably as close to Andre Drummond as he is to Draymond Green defensively.

[ShootersShoot]

Yeah, Dwight Howard was an MVP candidate... iin the regular season. Then in the playoffs, his team was better with him on the bench than the floor just like they were for 10 of his 12 playoff runs. In the 2009 Finals run, the Magic were +12.4 with Dwight on the bench and -0.3 with him actually on the floor.

If you look at career playoff RAPM, Draymond ranks #2 behind only LeBron. Dwight ranks #873 out of 1506 players. Here's their teams have performed with and without them in the playoffs over the course of their careers:

Warriors with Draymond on floor: +8.4
Warriors with Draymond on bench: -3.5

Dwight's teams when he's on floor: -1.0
Dwight's teams when he's on bench: +3.5

Draymond's an all-time playoff riser who has made the Warriors better when he plays without Curry than when Curry plays without him over a decade of playoff games. Dwight's an all-time playoff faller who basically turns into Demar Derozan once the playoffs start. Sometimes it's hard for the raw box numbers to reflect it, but Dwight's just not a smart player. Even when his numbers are good, his boneheaded plays just become more and more punishing when everyone else is locking in.

There are a lot of factors involved with such a statistic. Teammates, coaching, etc. Howard is clearly the better player when comparing 1 season peaks. Better scorer, rebounder, and arguably defender. Also took the magic to the Finals as the #1 option, despite your statistic.

Draymond has been a part of better teams for sure.

The 2016 Warriors were better with Steph Curry on the bench and Draymond as their top player than any Dwight team ever was with him.

If I could never hear the words “#1 option” again in my life, that would be great. In soccer the guy who shoots the most is called the “striker”. It’s a position and it’s recognized that people at other positions can be more valuable.

Bur for some reason in basketball, it’s seen as some proof of import. Why not just look at the players in terms of how valuable they are. Draymond Green and Bill Russell are never gonna be the guys who shoot most for their team, but that doesn’t mean their passing and defense can’t be just as valuable as guys that shoot more.

If we were to break it down by skills, I’d say that Draymond’s edge as a passer/playmaker is larger than Dwight’s edge as a scorer especially if you look at their peak seasons as Draymond actually shot the ball shockingly well in 2015/16 season.

On defense, Draymond is massively better. It’s not close. Draymond has the best playoff defensive impact signals ever and is one of the best 5-8 defenders in the history of the game. Dwight puts up the raw block numbers, but he’s actually one of the worst players of all-time in terms of goaltending rate and blocking the ball out of bounds instead of back to a teammate. The stat I saw was that Duncan goaltended the ball on one of every 250 blocks and Dwight did it once every 5 blocks.

It really nerfs the value of his shot blocking all the easy points he give up. He’s probably as close to Andre Drummond as he is to Draymond Green defensively.

Draymonds IQ is higher than dwights. But we also need to consider that dwight had a higher burden to bear factoring both ends. Peak dwight did not have close to the defensive help draymond had such as bogut and iguodala and certainly no one nearly as good as steph on offense .

If peak dwight got to play with steph, klay, iggy and draymond with rashard, hedo, nelson.. I feel the warriors would still be contenders and the magic would not be a top seeded team and most likely dont make the finals. Dwight can be a go to scoring option while dominating important defensive categories for a big. Draymonds value comes from his defensive versatility but offensively he is simply not a go to guy even with the playmaking.

Other things we can consider would be hack a dwight and how that could hurt the teams rythym plus also longevity wise draymond sustained closer to his peak longer than dwight did his.

[zero rings]

There are a lot of factors involved with such a statistic. Teammates, coaching, etc. Howard is clearly the better player when comparing 1 season peaks. Better scorer, rebounder, and arguably defender. Also took the magic to the Finals as the #1 option, despite your statistic.

Draymond has been a part of better teams for sure.

The 2016 Warriors were better with Steph Curry on the bench and Draymond as their top player than any Dwight team ever was with him.

If I could never hear the words “#1 option” again in my life, that would be great. In soccer the guy who shoots the most is called the “striker”. It’s a position and it’s recognized that people at other positions can be more valuable.

Bur for some reason in basketball, it’s seen as some proof of import. Why not just look at the players in terms of how valuable they are. Draymond Green and Bill Russell are never gonna be the guys who shoot most for their team, but that doesn’t mean their passing and defense can’t be just as valuable as guys that shoot more.

If we were to break it down by skills, I’d say that Draymond’s edge as a passer/playmaker is larger than Dwight’s edge as a scorer especially if you look at their peak seasons as Draymond actually shot the ball shockingly well in 2015/16 season.

On defense, Draymond is massively better. It’s not close. Draymond has the best playoff defensive impact signals ever and is one of the best 5-8 defenders in the history of the game. Dwight puts up the raw block numbers, but he’s actually one of the worst players of all-time in terms of goaltending rate and blocking the ball out of bounds instead of back to a teammate. The stat I saw was that Duncan goaltended the ball on one of every 250 blocks and Dwight did it once every 5 blocks.

It really nerfs the value of his shot blocking all the easy points he give up. He’s probably as close to Andre Drummond as he is to Draymond Green defensively.

Draymonds IQ is higher than dwights. But we also need to consider that dwight had a higher burden to bear factoring both ends. If dwight got to play with steph, klay, iggy and draymond with rashard, hedo, nelson.. I feel the warriors would still be contenders and the magic would not be a top seeded team and most likely dont make the finals. Dwight can be a go to scoring option while dominating important defensive categories for a big. Draymonds value comes from his defensive versatility but offensively he is simply not a go to guy even with the playmaking.

Scoring 20 ppg doesn’t make you a go to scorer.

Dwight couldn’t create efficient offense by himself, and he was a horrific passer. He was basically a Gobert-like play finisher who tried to do too much.

[ShootersShoot]

The 2016 Warriors were better with Steph Curry on the bench and Draymond as their top player than any Dwight team ever was with him.

If I could never hear the words “#1 option” again in my life, that would be great. In soccer the guy who shoots the most is called the “striker”. It’s a position and it’s recognized that people at other positions can be more valuable.

Bur for some reason in basketball, it’s seen as some proof of import. Why not just look at the players in terms of how valuable they are. Draymond Green and Bill Russell are never gonna be the guys who shoot most for their team, but that doesn’t mean their passing and defense can’t be just as valuable as guys that shoot more.

If we were to break it down by skills, I’d say that Draymond’s edge as a passer/playmaker is larger than Dwight’s edge as a scorer especially if you look at their peak seasons as Draymond actually shot the ball shockingly well in 2015/16 season.

On defense, Draymond is massively better. It’s not close. Draymond has the best playoff defensive impact signals ever and is one of the best 5-8 defenders in the history of the game. Dwight puts up the raw block numbers, but he’s actually one of the worst players of all-time in terms of goaltending rate and blocking the ball out of bounds instead of back to a teammate. The stat I saw was that Duncan goaltended the ball on one of every 250 blocks and Dwight did it once every 5 blocks.

It really nerfs the value of his shot blocking all the easy points he give up. He’s probably as close to Andre Drummond as he is to Draymond Green defensively.

Draymonds IQ is higher than dwights. But we also need to consider that dwight had a higher burden to bear factoring both ends. If dwight got to play with steph, klay, iggy and draymond with rashard, hedo, nelson.. I feel the warriors would still be contenders and the magic would not be a top seeded team and most likely dont make the finals. Dwight can be a go to scoring option while dominating important defensive categories for a big. Draymonds value comes from his defensive versatility but offensively he is simply not a go to guy even with the playmaking.

Scoring 20 ppg doesn’t make you a go to scorer.

Dwight couldn’t create efficient offense by himself, and he was a horrific passer. He was basically a Gobert-like play finisher who tried to do too much.

Ffs he was the leading scorer on a 59 win team..
Dwight at his peak was the clear cut #1 player on one of the best teams, 1st team all nba. Draymond cannot make that claim, not even in a fantasy scenario. Can peak dwight be the #2 or #3 for multiple championships? Plausibly yes.

Im not saying dwight should be compared to shaq or hakeem offensively, far from it, but in terms of what you want from a go to option, is clearly better than draymond.

Dismissing a guy averaging over 20ppg on 60+ TS% while anchoring a top defense as the best player on the team as a nothingburger is just ignorance, plain and simple.

[NZB2323]

There is no world where Draymonds peak year is better than Howard's. Howard finished 2nd for MVP voting, won DpoY, 1st team all NBA and defensive team. Averaged 23 pts, 14 boards, and over 2 blocks per game.

List is already off to being weird...or should I say biased.

Dwights peak was in the mvp discussion leading his team to the finals. If someone has draymond over him they are clueless.

Yeah, Dwight Howard was an MVP candidate... iin the regular season. Then in the playoffs, his team was better with him on the bench than the floor just like they were for 10 of his 12 playoff runs. In the 2009 Finals run, the Magic were +12.4 with Dwight on the bench and -0.3 with him actually on the floor.

If you look at career playoff RAPM, Draymond ranks #2 behind only LeBron. Dwight ranks #873 out of 1506 players. Here's their teams have performed with and without them in the playoffs over the course of their careers:

Warriors with Draymond on floor: +8.4
Warriors with Draymond on bench: -3.5

Dwight's teams when he's on floor: -1.0
Dwight's teams when he's on bench: +3.5

Draymond's an all-time playoff riser who has made the Warriors better when he plays without Curry than when Curry plays without him over a decade of playoff games. Dwight's an all-time playoff faller who basically turns into Demar Derozan once the playoffs start. Sometimes it's hard for the raw box numbers to reflect it, but Dwight's just not a smart player. Even when his numbers are good, his boneheaded plays just become more and more punishing when everyone else is locking in.

+/- for a single playoff run can be a small sample size and misleading stat. For example, Shaq from 2000-2002:

2000: +22.9
2001: -0.3
2002: +22.9

From this data, can we conclude that Shaq was dominant in the 2002 and 2000 playoffs, but his team was better off without him in the 2001 playoffs, or is it just a bunch of noise?

In the 2001 playoffs Stockton was +18.5. Does that mean that a 38 year old Stockton was better than a 28 year old Shaq in the 2001 playoffs?

Some issues with the RAPM list:

1. Jamal Murray is 7th all time.
2. PJ Tucker is 11th all time.
3. Danny Green is 14th all time.
4. Terrance Mann is 16th all time.
5. Marcin Gortat is ranked higher than Michael Jordan and Shaq.

As for Murray, Tucker, Green, and Mann…they were all role players with great players. Murray’s numbers are inflated playing with Jokic. Green’s numbers are inflated playing with Curry.

2019 with Curry: +7.8
2020 no Curry: +1.3

In the 2016 playoffs when Curry missed games and didn’t play as well we see Green has a lower +/- on-off than in 2015 or 2017. All that this tells me is that Green is the best pick and roll partner with Curry on the Warriors, and Curry hits all these crazy shots with Green on the floor, or Green is able to lead a 4-on-3 break with Curry being trapped with Thompson. But all that happens because Curry is special, and he hits the crazy shots and gets doubled team. And Curry and Green usually sit at the same time because they have great synergy together.

We never got to see Dwight’s on/off numbers with Curry. When Dwight was past his prime and injured we saw him paired with James Harden for the 2015 playoffs and Dwight had an on/off +/- off +10.7. Was Dwight really better that year than the year he carried the Magic to the Finals, or did he have a better starter to play with and his bench was worse?

Dwight played most of his minutes in the 2009 playoffs against LeBron, Kobe, Pau, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. Dwight isn’t as good as LeBron or Kobe, but doesn’t it make sense that the Magic’s bench against the Cavs bench would be better than Dwight against LeBron?

Was Dwight actually better in the 2008 playoffs than 2009, or do his numbers look better when he’s going up against Derozan instead of Lebron?

Is Marvin Gortat actually better than Shaq and Jordan? Was he better than Dwight in the 2009 playoffs? Was Dwight better than Harden in the 2015 playoffs?

We need to add context to 1 single data point being used as the be-all, end-all. Green is definitely underrated by some, but overrated by others.