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thunderdunk wrote:I'm in the Sacto area at the moment... I bought the NBA Team Pass with Dish, and Dish isn't showing the game... not sure why people in other markets can watch this but I can't... effing Dish...
East Bay Sports wrote:Podz was a part of the most productive 5 man unit in the league last season after we acquired Jimmy last season and yall are sweating a random preseason game lol
Jester_ wrote:Hot take: Moses Moody shows the potential to be a star/#2 option ala Lauri Markkanen. Both the eye test and the advanced stats show a player with extremely high slope.
Code: Select all
PLAYER POSS OFFRTG DEFRTG NETRTG TS% EFG% USG%
------ ---- ------ ------ ------ --- ---- ----
Taevion Kinsey 25 132.000 92.300 39.700 0.000 0.000 0.000
Al Horford 55 123.600 103.700 19.900 21.400 21.400 14.300
LJ Cryer 66 127.300 112.300 15.000 63.300 61.100 24.400
Quinten Post 137 114.600 100.700 13.900 64.800 61.500 22.300
Jimmy Butler III 73 115.100 104.100 11.000 68.700 60.000 22.500
Moses Moody 80 116.300 106.500 9.800 69.000 69.000 24.700
Buddy Hield 133 109.000 103.800 5.200 55.600 55.600 20.300
Brandin Podziemski 138 115.900 112.300 3.600 67.000 65.400 22.300
Jackson Rowe 51 109.800 107.700 2.100 75.000 75.000 16.100
Stephen Curry 73 105.500 104.100 1.400 79.300 75.000 21.300
Gui Santos 103 107.800 106.800 1.000 50.900 45.500 13.500
Draymond Green 73 109.200 111.500 -2.300 68.700 60.000 22.500
Pat Spencer 117 110.300 115.800 -5.500 50.500 40.000 21.300
Will Richard 122 110.700 117.900 -7.300 43.300 35.300 15.300
Trayce Jackson-Davis 80 105.000 113.400 -8.400 73.300 42.500 48.900
Jonathan Kuminga 127 100.800 115.600 -14.800 59.100 59.400 20.600
Gary Payton II 80 101.300 122.200 -21.000 91.700 91.700 13.500
Marques Bolden 24 100.000 150.000 -50.000 51.400 42.900 27.300Code: Select all
Player Min PTS REB AST TOV STL BLK FG% 3P%
------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Moses Moody 17.2 14.5 2.0 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 52.4 58.3
Quinten Post 20.3 13.5 3.5 1.0 2.5 2.5 0.5 47.4 45.5
Stephen Curry 15.3 12.5 2.5 2.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 57.1 50.0
Buddy Hield 17.4 12.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 50.0 40.0
Jimmy Butler III 15.9 10.5 3.0 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.0 60.0 0.0
Pat Spencer 16.7 9.0 3.0 3.5 0.5 1.5 0.0 44.4 33.3
LJ Cryer 10.3 7.0 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 36.4 50.0
Brandin Podziemski 17.8 6.5 2.5 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.0 40.0 42.9
Will Richard 16.0 6.0 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 37.5 25.0
Draymond Green 15.1 5.5 2.0 3.5 3.5 2.5 0.0 40.0 40.0
Gary Payton II 10.5 5.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 71.4 50.0
Gui Santos 14.4 5.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0.5 0.5 50.0 25.0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 10.2 5.0 4.5 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 66.7 0.0
Jonathan Kuminga 16.6 4.0 5.5 2.0 3.5 0.0 1.0 37.5 33.3
Marques Bolden 3.3 2.0 5.5 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0
Al Horford 12.5 1.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 1.0 0.5 14.3 20.0
Jackson Rowe 7.3 1.0 3.0 1.0 3.5 2.5 0.0 50.0 0.0
Taevion Kinsey 4.9 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0AirP. wrote:Althought I hate NBA.com's offrtg and defrtg because it's too simplistic, basketball reference doesn't have stats for the preseasons, so here's the current advanced stats for the players ordered by net rating from nba.com.Code: Select all
PLAYER POSS OFFRTG DEFRTG NETRTG TS% EFG% USG%
------ ---- ------ ------ ------ --- ---- ----
Taevion Kinsey 25 132.000 92.300 39.700 0.000 0.000 0.000
Al Horford 55 123.600 103.700 19.900 21.400 21.400 14.300
LJ Cryer 66 127.300 112.300 15.000 63.300 61.100 24.400
Quinten Post 137 114.600 100.700 13.900 64.800 61.500 22.300
Jimmy Butler III 73 115.100 104.100 11.000 68.700 60.000 22.500
Moses Moody 80 116.300 106.500 9.800 69.000 69.000 24.700
Buddy Hield 133 109.000 103.800 5.200 55.600 55.600 20.300
Brandin Podziemski 138 115.900 112.300 3.600 67.000 65.400 22.300
Jackson Rowe 51 109.800 107.700 2.100 75.000 75.000 16.100
Stephen Curry 73 105.500 104.100 1.400 79.300 75.000 21.300
Gui Santos 103 107.800 106.800 1.000 50.900 45.500 13.500
Draymond Green 73 109.200 111.500 -2.300 68.700 60.000 22.500
Pat Spencer 117 110.300 115.800 -5.500 50.500 40.000 21.300
Will Richard 122 110.700 117.900 -7.300 43.300 35.300 15.300
Trayce Jackson-Davis 80 105.000 113.400 -8.400 73.300 42.500 48.900
Jonathan Kuminga 127 100.800 115.600 -14.800 59.100 59.400 20.600
Gary Payton II 80 101.300 122.200 -21.000 91.700 91.700 13.500
Marques Bolden 24 100.000 150.000 -50.000 51.400 42.900 27.300
vvoland wrote:AirP. wrote:Althought I hate NBA.com's offrtg and defrtg because it's too simplistic, basketball reference doesn't have stats for the preseasons, so here's the current advanced stats for the players ordered by net rating from nba.com.Code: Select all
PLAYER POSS OFFRTG DEFRTG NETRTG TS% EFG% USG%
------ ---- ------ ------ ------ --- ---- ----
Taevion Kinsey 25 132.000 92.300 39.700 0.000 0.000 0.000
Al Horford 55 123.600 103.700 19.900 21.400 21.400 14.300
LJ Cryer 66 127.300 112.300 15.000 63.300 61.100 24.400
Quinten Post 137 114.600 100.700 13.900 64.800 61.500 22.300
Jimmy Butler III 73 115.100 104.100 11.000 68.700 60.000 22.500
Moses Moody 80 116.300 106.500 9.800 69.000 69.000 24.700
Buddy Hield 133 109.000 103.800 5.200 55.600 55.600 20.300
Brandin Podziemski 138 115.900 112.300 3.600 67.000 65.400 22.300
Jackson Rowe 51 109.800 107.700 2.100 75.000 75.000 16.100
Stephen Curry 73 105.500 104.100 1.400 79.300 75.000 21.300
Gui Santos 103 107.800 106.800 1.000 50.900 45.500 13.500
Draymond Green 73 109.200 111.500 -2.300 68.700 60.000 22.500
Pat Spencer 117 110.300 115.800 -5.500 50.500 40.000 21.300
Will Richard 122 110.700 117.900 -7.300 43.300 35.300 15.300
Trayce Jackson-Davis 80 105.000 113.400 -8.400 73.300 42.500 48.900
Jonathan Kuminga 127 100.800 115.600 -14.800 59.100 59.400 20.600
Gary Payton II 80 101.300 122.200 -21.000 91.700 91.700 13.500
Marques Bolden 24 100.000 150.000 -50.000 51.400 42.900 27.300
I wish cleaning the glass or nba.com had lineup data instead. I find it to be much more informative. Individualized team stats like this don't make much sense to me without understanding the broader context. a stat that has jackson rowe with a higher offensive anything than steph seems pretty meaningless, at least to my eyes. I'd love to use something like this as 'evidence' that GP2 has really fallen off. I can't do that, it's not a stat I believe in.
AirP. wrote:vvoland wrote:AirP. wrote:Althought I hate NBA.com's offrtg and defrtg because it's too simplistic, basketball reference doesn't have stats for the preseasons, so here's the current advanced stats for the players ordered by net rating from nba.com.Code: Select all
PLAYER POSS OFFRTG DEFRTG NETRTG TS% EFG% USG%
------ ---- ------ ------ ------ --- ---- ----
Taevion Kinsey 25 132.000 92.300 39.700 0.000 0.000 0.000
Al Horford 55 123.600 103.700 19.900 21.400 21.400 14.300
LJ Cryer 66 127.300 112.300 15.000 63.300 61.100 24.400
Quinten Post 137 114.600 100.700 13.900 64.800 61.500 22.300
Jimmy Butler III 73 115.100 104.100 11.000 68.700 60.000 22.500
Moses Moody 80 116.300 106.500 9.800 69.000 69.000 24.700
Buddy Hield 133 109.000 103.800 5.200 55.600 55.600 20.300
Brandin Podziemski 138 115.900 112.300 3.600 67.000 65.400 22.300
Jackson Rowe 51 109.800 107.700 2.100 75.000 75.000 16.100
Stephen Curry 73 105.500 104.100 1.400 79.300 75.000 21.300
Gui Santos 103 107.800 106.800 1.000 50.900 45.500 13.500
Draymond Green 73 109.200 111.500 -2.300 68.700 60.000 22.500
Pat Spencer 117 110.300 115.800 -5.500 50.500 40.000 21.300
Will Richard 122 110.700 117.900 -7.300 43.300 35.300 15.300
Trayce Jackson-Davis 80 105.000 113.400 -8.400 73.300 42.500 48.900
Jonathan Kuminga 127 100.800 115.600 -14.800 59.100 59.400 20.600
Gary Payton II 80 101.300 122.200 -21.000 91.700 91.700 13.500
Marques Bolden 24 100.000 150.000 -50.000 51.400 42.900 27.300
I wish cleaning the glass or nba.com had lineup data instead. I find it to be much more informative. Individualized team stats like this don't make much sense to me without understanding the broader context. a stat that has jackson rowe with a higher offensive anything than steph seems pretty meaningless, at least to my eyes. I'd love to use something like this as 'evidence' that GP2 has really fallen off. I can't do that, it's not a stat I believe in.
Which is why I like the calculated ORTG and DRTG that basketball-reference uses vs raw numbers since it tries to extract what an individual player is doing on the court. With the raw numbers it could be other players on the court with a specific person significantly lowering or upping the ratings.
vvoland wrote:AirP. wrote:vvoland wrote:
I wish cleaning the glass or nba.com had lineup data instead. I find it to be much more informative. Individualized team stats like this don't make much sense to me without understanding the broader context. a stat that has jackson rowe with a higher offensive anything than steph seems pretty meaningless, at least to my eyes. I'd love to use something like this as 'evidence' that GP2 has really fallen off. I can't do that, it's not a stat I believe in.
Which is why I like the calculated ORTG and DRTG that basketball-reference uses vs raw numbers since it tries to extract what an individual player is doing on the court. With the raw numbers it could be other players on the court with a specific person significantly lowering or upping the ratings.
That part also seems problematic. i like advanced stats as much as the next guy but they have a sharply declining utility the more advanced they get. basic metrics (either per 48 or 100 poss) really don't need much context when looking at what 5 man units do and doesn't require advanced calculus to "extract what an individual player is doing on the court."
I have a healthy respect for quants and such. At some point, there's the game itself and, often, it seems like it is no longer as important as some dorp/vorp/borp number some dude came up with.
Not meant as a critique of what you posted, all data points are welcome on a message board.
Twinkie defense wrote:
Jester_ wrote:Hot take: Moses Moody shows the potential to be a star/#2 option ala Lauri Markkanen. Both the eye test and the advanced stats show a player with extremely high slope.
michaelm wrote:vvoland wrote:AirP. wrote:Which is why I like the calculated ORTG and DRTG that basketball-reference uses vs raw numbers since it tries to extract what an individual player is doing on the court. With the raw numbers it could be other players on the court with a specific person significantly lowering or upping the ratings.
That part also seems problematic. i like advanced stats as much as the next guy but they have a sharply declining utility the more advanced they get. basic metrics (either per 48 or 100 poss) really don't need much context when looking at what 5 man units do and doesn't require advanced calculus to "extract what an individual player is doing on the court."
I have a healthy respect for quants and such. At some point, there's the game itself and, often, it seems like it is no longer as important as some dorp/vorp/borp number some dude came up with.
Not meant as a critique of what you posted, all data points are welcome on a message board.
Sure, my view as well, I am sure they are useful but I am not prepared to spend a significant part of my life re-learning advanced mathematics to more fully understand them, and suspect many of them can’t really be validated. They shouldn’t be an end in themselves imo either.
The NBA has fined Jonathan Kuminga $35,000 for “making inappropriate contact with and continuing to pursue a game official.” Happened late in the first half in Portland the other night after Kuminga was upset about a no-call and his ankle getting clipped.
AirP. wrote:michaelm wrote:vvoland wrote:
That part also seems problematic. i like advanced stats as much as the next guy but they have a sharply declining utility the more advanced they get. basic metrics (either per 48 or 100 poss) really don't need much context when looking at what 5 man units do and doesn't require advanced calculus to "extract what an individual player is doing on the court."
I have a healthy respect for quants and such. At some point, there's the game itself and, often, it seems like it is no longer as important as some dorp/vorp/borp number some dude came up with.
Not meant as a critique of what you posted, all data points are welcome on a message board.
Sure, my view as well, I am sure they are useful but I am not prepared to spend a significant part of my life re-learning advanced mathematics to more fully understand them, and suspect many of them can’t really be validated. They shouldn’t be an end in themselves imo either.
- Calculated ORTG and DRTG try to extract a player's impact when on the court vs what the group does when that player was on the court.
- Basketball-Reference does it for you in the box scores of each game and under the per100 stats.
I've been using it for a long time now as a nice easy to digest numbers of how a player helps or hurts a team when on the court, especially on individual games where +/- doesn't give a real overview of a player that game.
vvoland wrote:AirP. wrote:michaelm wrote:Sure, my view as well, I am sure they are useful but I am not prepared to spend a significant part of my life re-learning advanced mathematics to more fully understand them, and suspect many of them can’t really be validated. They shouldn’t be an end in themselves imo either.
- Calculated ORTG and DRTG try to extract a player's impact when on the court vs what the group does when that player was on the court.
- Basketball-Reference does it for you in the box scores of each game and under the per100 stats.
I've been using it for a long time now as a nice easy to digest numbers of how a player helps or hurts a team when on the court, especially on individual games where +/- doesn't give a real overview of a player that game.
That's the part where you and I have a difference of opinion. I think that part is particularly tough in a single game sample size, which is what you're seeming to reference in your 2nd point. Over a full season, sure, it'll have a bit more meaning but, again, I don' t think it's valuable without the understanding of what 5 man unit the majority of those numbers come from.
Just as one example,
in 24-25, buddy hield had 106.2 pts per 100 possessions of(cleaning the glass version) without steph on the court (1714 possessions, excluding garbage time).
with Steph? 124.8 (2015 possessions).
His total for the season was 116.2, in 3729 possessions. That overall number is not nothing but the lineup data, even the two man pairings, imho, is far more telling.
According to basketball-reference, buddy's ortg for the year was 108 (not sure if that's the number you're using). I'm really not sure what to make of that number, just to be honest.
PS. Buddy should have played like 35+ mins per game last season and, while I was already thinking he should start, how does kerr look at something like this and not start him:
https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/10/lineups?on=1608#tab-four_factors
His 13 most used lineups are, at worst +0.0 and, at best, in the +50s..
AirP. wrote:vvoland wrote:AirP. wrote:- Calculated ORTG and DRTG try to extract a player's impact when on the court vs what the group does when that player was on the court.
- Basketball-Reference does it for you in the box scores of each game and under the per100 stats.
I've been using it for a long time now as a nice easy to digest numbers of how a player helps or hurts a team when on the court, especially on individual games where +/- doesn't give a real overview of a player that game.
That's the part where you and I have a difference of opinion. I think that part is particularly tough in a single game sample size, which is what you're seeming to reference in your 2nd point. Over a full season, sure, it'll have a bit more meaning but, again, I don' t think it's valuable without the understanding of what 5 man unit the majority of those numbers come from.
Just as one example,
in 24-25, buddy hield had 106.2 pts per 100 possessions of(cleaning the glass version) without steph on the court (1714 possessions, excluding garbage time).
with Steph? 124.8 (2015 possessions).
His total for the season was 116.2, in 3729 possessions. That overall number is not nothing but the lineup data, even the two man pairings, imho, is far more telling.
According to basketball-reference, buddy's ortg for the year was 108 (not sure if that's the number you're using). I'm really not sure what to make of that number, just to be honest.
PS. Buddy should have played like 35+ mins per game last season and, while I was already thinking he should start, how does kerr look at something like this and not start him:
https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/10/lineups?on=1608#tab-four_factors
His 13 most used lineups are, at worst +0.0 and, at best, in the +50s..
I think it's HIGHLY useful for individual games. that they stick with, I don't believe in the simplistic on court stats.
Let's take Hield for an example again.
December 5 2024 GS wins against Houston and Hield is a +18 but did he get carried or did he contribute?
Hield - 1 of 8 FG (1-6 3pt) 5 reb, 2 ast, 1 TO for 5 points and a +/- of +18
Kuminga - 13 of 22 FG (3-6 3pt) 7 reb, 2 ast, 2 to for 33 points and a +/- of +7
If you look on nba.com you'll get ORTG for these 2 of...
Buddy 103.5 ORTG
Kuminga 98.5 ORTG
https://www.nba.com/game/hou-vs-gsw-0022400332/box-score?type=advanced
To me, this doesn't tell me how "good" either was on the court, it tells me how good the team was when he was on the court, so if Buddy played with more of the starters and Kuminga played with more of the lesser players (or players having lesser games), that would dramatically change those numbers (which looks like it did).
Now with basketball-reference calculated ORTG you get a clearer picture of them that game.
Buddy 67 ORTG
Kuminga 119 ORTG
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202412050GSW.html
I can't tell you how many times I've watched a player who was just terrible and get carried that game then after the game I'd hear... but he was a +7 tonight so he must not have been that bad.
Cleaning the glass removes stats that they define as garbage time which may be right or wrong, I'd probably lean more towards it being right but I'm not sure if it's calculated or just basically raw stats which I'm not a fan of.
vvoland wrote:Spoiler:
Sure, with such obvious examples, the differences are stark. I'm curious what that would look like in games where the box score stats are similar while the ortg are wildly different.
Similarly, that 67 ORTG for buddy is across all the lineups, right? I would be more interested in how he played with or without steph, even in that one game, and see what the Ortg would tell me. Between the minutes with the starters or one or two shots rimming out isn't the variance for a single game sample size (for buddy it was ~40 possessions?) just too high to be valuable? Maybe i'm missing something
TB wrote:
We finally have a team for Nellie.... bring the old drunk back.
marthafokker wrote:LJ Cryer still not cut yet! Sounds like Rowe finally cut? Spencer is still needed for blow out sub and emergency pg.
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