The Clippers Thread: Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac, James Harden - 2025-26 Season

[jalengreen]

I do agree that the warriors also seem to have a quite low over under considering their post jimmy trade record last year. They should be in the mid 50s no problem barring injury (though again, I guess I can't blame Vegas for expecting injuries for one of the oldest teams ever).

Would be a 2022 Warriors esque miracle if they get Butler healthy for a season, let alone at his current age. His track record suggests a guy more likely than not to play <60 games.

This just isn't true.

The last three years Butler played 64 games, 60 games, and 55 games (but was suspended for 14 games).

Assuming no suspension issues he can get to 60 games. The numbers from 2020 and 2021 are skewed because of COVID.

Meaning that the only season apart from his rookie season he didn't get to 60 games was 2022, when the Heat had the 1 seed, and 2018, which was the season with the mid-season Timberwolves-Sixers trade.

Since leaving Chicago until this past season

2018: 59 gp
2019: 65 gp
2020: 65 gp (adjusted)
2021: 59 gp (adjusted)
2022: 57 gp
2023: 64 gp
2024: 60 gp

3 seasons < 60, three seasons > 60, and one = 60. All in the range (57, 65). Remarkably consistent

Then 2025 I guess there's the asterisk that technically most of his missed games were because he got suspended for conduct detrimental to the team. Not sure that's much better but we can go with it. Anyway so he had less miles on his wheels and ... then got injured in his second playoff game.

So is that seven seasons where he's right around 60 games played, then a season were he finds the loophole by getting himself suspended by his team before promptly getting injured in the playoffs?

Yeah I don't see the reason for optimism here

[Caneman786]

Would be a 2022 Warriors esque miracle if they get Butler healthy for a season, let alone at his current age. His track record suggests a guy more likely than not to play <60 games.

This just isn't true.

The last three years Butler played 64 games, 60 games, and 55 games (but was suspended for 14 games).

Assuming no suspension issues he can get to 60 games. The numbers from 2020 and 2021 are skewed because of COVID.

Meaning that the only season apart from his rookie season he didn't get to 60 games was 2022, when the Heat had the 1 seed, and 2018, which was the season with the mid-season Timberwolves-Sixers trade.

Since leaving Chicago until this past season

2018: 59 gp
2019: 65 gp
2020: 65 gp (adjusted)
2021: 59 gp (adjusted)
2022: 57 gp
2023: 64 gp
2024: 60 gp

3 seasons < 60, three seasons > 60, and one = 60. All in the range (57, 65). Remarkably consistent

Then 2025 I guess there's the asterisk that technically most of his missed games were because he got suspended for conduct detrimental to the team. Not sure that's much better but we can go with it. Anyway so he had less miles on his wheels and ... then got injured in his second playoff game.

So is that seven seasons where he's right around 60 games played, then a season were he finds the loophole by getting himself suspended by his team before promptly getting injured in the playoffs?

Yeah I don't see the reason for optimism here

I think him shifting to more of a second star role will have some influence in letting him be more durable. Another added factor is that often times after repeated injury scares, we see many people start to be less risky and take their health more seriously.

Chris Paul and James Harden are two players who seem to have gotten more serious about avoiding injuries, whether that's by playing in a less risky way or by focusing on their health and conditioning, so it's definitely a shift that can happen. For Jimmy, if there's any time that would be, it would be now. He's had nagging injuries in every playoffs run since 2021, so he may just make a change sooner or later.

On the other hand, it's tough cuz Jimmy goes hard all the time. It's just part of who he is. You can't just take that away. Luck also plays a major role, and some people's bodies might just not be built to last.

Of course, we'll see.

If you want, we should continue this conversation in the Warriors thread.

[cupcakesnake]

I find it hard to picture the Clippers being super healthy. Specifically this group of players: Kawhi, CP3, Harden, Batum, Lopez, Beal, Bogdanovic. This is the 32 and up club, and they've all had various injury problems. Some of these guys could have awesome healthy seasons, but there's almost no chance we're getting 65 games from all or most of them.

Strength in numbers though. Some of those guys likely will be healthy, and there are younger legs supporting them: Zu, DJJ, Dunn, and John Collins. They've got so much depth, I don't think injuries will cause stretches where they're playing at a 40-win pace. It seems logical to assume this team can keep up a 50-win pace, even with a few injuries, and then play at a 60+ win pace during healthy stretches.

I picked 54 wins. Harden is still very very good, but the decline has been consistent and will continue this season. Kawhi could play 60 games, but who would be surprised if he's out for the season 20 games in. Zubac is the workhorse on this team.

[parsnips33]

I do agree that the warriors also seem to have a quite low over under considering their post jimmy trade record last year. They should be in the mid 50s no problem barring injury (though again, I guess I can't blame Vegas for expecting injuries for one of the oldest teams ever).

Would be a 2022 Warriors esque miracle if they get Butler healthy for a season, let alone at his current age. His track record suggests a guy more likely than not to play <60 games.

Good thing we have experience with miracles

[Doug_12]

I don't believe much in those old rosters. We have seen this many times and it almost never worked. (The latest example is the 2022 Lakers)

If we would be in 2020 (or rather in '18), then this would be a hell of a team. But now, I don't know...

[ShotCreator]

I don't believe much in those old rosters. We have seen this many times and it almost never worked. (The latest example is the 2022 Lakers)

If we would be in 2020 (or rather in '18), then this would be a hell of a team. But now, I don't know...

In 2020 this would be a 70 win type of team. +12 or something.

They’re a modest or +5 or +6 contender right now.
Could be a little better depending on their health, chemistry and rotation.

[Doug_12]

I don't believe much in those old rosters. We have seen this many times and it almost never worked. (The latest example is the 2022 Lakers)

If we would be in 2020 (or rather in '18), then this would be a hell of a team. But now, I don't know...

In 2020 this would be a 70 win type of team. +12 or something.

They’re a modest or +5 or +6 contender right now.
Could be a little better depending on their health, chemistry and rotation.

70 win for '20-21 is kind of hyperbole imo. That was a down year for Harden and for Kawhi as well (vs his previous year standards). They were still All-NBA level guys, but not that good as they were 2-3 years earlier. I agree w/ '18-19 though. Harden and Kawhi were among the top 5 players in the league back then and CP3 was coming from a season when he almost beat the Curry-Durant Warriors as a 2nd option (behind Harden). Adding Brook as the defensive anchor and prime Beal to the bench would have made them probably the best team ever.

[dcstanley]

Even at their advanced age, CP3/Dunn/DJJ/Batum/Lopez is the best bench in the league.