2025-26 Bucks/NBA Prediction Thread - Locks TODAY at NOON

[MKE_Hodag22]

Bucks Record: 49-33
Bucks Playoffs: Round 2 Exit

MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL
MIP: Amen Thompson, HOU
DPOY: Victor Wembanyama, SAS
COY: Quin Snyder, ATL
ROY: Cooper Flagg, DAL
6MOY: Jordan Clarkson, NYK

[GoldenAntlers]

During the two years with Dame the Bucks won 49 and also 48 games.

50-32, 2nd or 3rd seed.
KPJ takes a significant leap mid-year and is a borderline all-star entering the playoffs.
Ryan Rollins takes a starting spot from either Green or Trent Jr.
Bucks are top ten in offense and defense.
Kuzma proves useful (either, surprisingly, as a rotation player or as trade bait)
Giannis is the obvious MVP, but only mentioned, not talked about.
-Goalposts will be moved for the next hot thing /or/
-Shai will be given the spotlight even though nobody really seems to care all that much about him.
2nd round exit, minimum.
The '31 1st is traded for an impact player (If this happens ECF minimum).
All this Giannis trade demand gossip will be silenced.

[drew881]

Bucks 46-36, 2nd round exit.

Giannis stays.

Shams drowns in a hot tub accident, weighted down by massive New York Knicks themed butt plug.

[benultimate]

Sorry to bring the average down, 44 wins.

Giannis runner up MVP. If he drags us to 50+ wins he wins it
KPJ top 3 MIP

[rilamann]

The East is weaker with Indy and Boston being significantly less talented

IDK how you could mark this team WORSE than last years team. Dame and Brook were two of the worst defenders at their position. Dame did not have a good attitude here and he simply didn't fit well with Giannis, so whatever positives he brought with 3 pt shooting were neutralized

The Bucks could have swapped Dame for a bag of tube socks and they would have been improved this season.

But the Bucks (essentially) swapped Dame for Miles Turner. You couldn't go into a lab and create a center that is a better fit next to Giannis than Miles Turner.

And after we get into how incredible of a fit Turner is next to Giannis. We can then talk about how Turner is a high-caliber player and a winning player in his own right, regardless of fit. It's not like Turner is just a meh player that happens to be a nice fit next to Giannis.

Dame was a hindrance to Giannis and the Bucks. Dame was a volume shooter who didn't try on defense and was more worried about Dame time than he was about playing winning basketball. Turner is going to be a significant positive impact player for the Bucks.

No way are the Bucks not going to be improved from last season.

[rilamann]

It is kind of funny that over the past last several seasons I was Mr Pessimism, because I thought the Bucks ceiling was around 50 wins and maybe the 2nd round at best.

While a majority of the board thought that the Bucks were a 50+ win team and a contender for the east.

Now in 2024'25 I finally think that the Bucks are a serious contender for the east.

While a majority of the board now thinks that the Bucks ceiling is around 50 games and maybe the 2nd round at best.

[drdrG]

Bucks Record: 47-35
Bucks Playoffs: ECF

MVP: Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, OKC
MIP: Trey Murphy, NOP
DPOY: Victor Wembanyama, SAS
COY: Ime Udoka, HOU
ROY: Cooper Flagg, DAL
6MOY: Jordan Clarkson, NYK

- Giannis 1st Team All-NBA again, 3rd straight season with 30/10/5 on 60%FG, sets career high in assists with 7.4/g
- KPJ avg 21 ppg
- Turner has 2+ BPG and shoots better than 40% from 3
- Bucks trade Portis and the 31 1st for a new starting SF
- Doc, TP and Kuz continue to drive this board crazy
- We lose in 6 in the ECF to the Cavs, dropping two close games due to poor game management and giving up ORebs

[Milbucks96]

46-36.
First round
Giannis first team for 8th year
Shai repeat MVP
Wemby DPOY
Cooper ROY
Mike Brown COTY
Mathurin MIP

[Plossum]

I've spent the Dame era trying to convince myself it will click and we'll be awesome once we get healthy and get some reps in. This despite all evidence to the contrary showing it just wasn't working.

The Bucks aren't contenders this year. I feel pretty comfortable in that pick. Unless we get some insane bracket luck I think we have a second round ceiling at best.

That being said, I think we're being wildly underrated in the national media. Having our over/under at 42.5 seems insane to me when a healthy season of Giannis is pretty close to a lock of 45 wins. Our over/under is the same as the 76ers

So Bucks predictions:
45-50 win range
One of Dairy/KPJ will get top 5 in MIP award
I think we'll try an make a big move at some point with our future picks when it's apparent we're good but not great
I think we'll be around the 4-5 seed again
I think the team will be enjoyable to watch. No more trying to force the Dame and Giannis thing. We have a pretty clear identity of letting Giannis go ham and everyone else playing off of that. We're a lot younger and ready to go in transition now. I think we'll be a bit like the OKC years post KD that were built around Russ. It'll be cool to watch us run and gun but I think there will be a limit to how far it can take us. I think it makes Doc's job a bit easier too. He no longer has to figure out how to make Giannis and Dame work. Just put the ball in Giannis's hand and have everyone else get to their spots.

As for NBA predictions:
Overrated
In the East: Atlanta, Cleveland and Detroit seem overrated to me in the East. I don't think they'll be as good and every media person seems to think.
In the West: Clips, Lakers and Spurs all look a bit overrated to me. I think Wemby is simultaneously great but also a bit overrated with where he's at. All the predictions about him being top 5 MVP seem insane to me. He'll be close to a lock for DPOY but his offence still has a long way to go IMO.
I'd be taking the unders on these teams.

Underrated:
East: Celtics, Pacers. The Pacers O/U set at 38.5 seems especially insane to me. I think the market is wildly overreacting to the losses of Hali and Turner. That team's success is built of being an elite team and less so on any individual. I think they'll surprise everyone and be a mid-40s win team.
West: Pelicans, Dallas. The Pelicans at 30.5 in particular seems insane to me. They have a pretty solid roster. Dallas the same (but I guess it's fair to factor in a lot of injuries for that squad).

That's all I have to say about that.

[Frank Nova]

Bucks Record: 51-31
Bucks Playoffs: Finals

MVP: Luka
MIP: Kevin Porter Jr
DPOY: Wemby
COY: Ime Udoka
ROY: Flagg
6MOY: Levert

[Be Here Now]

45-37.

I think we'll get to the second round but that's it. There's not enough offensive talent to make a real run in the postseason. Celtics and Pacers being weakened will help us go further than the past 3 seasons but this is the least talented Bucks roster since 2017 or 2018 imo. There isn't anyone on the roster who can be a 2nd or even 3rd banana for a championship team.

[paulpressey25]

Simmons, Lowe and House did their EC pod today. The Bucks over/under was 42.5 I think. All three of them took a ‘heavy over’

Lowe was the least convinced. Simmons said we’ll be good this year. 4 or 5 seed. They all agreed the Vegas number was way too low. They assumed Vegas money is factoring in the chance of a midseason Giannis trade.

[rilamann]

Bucks record: 56-26

And I am picking the Bucks to win the east. Party because I think that the Bucks are going to be legitimately good. But partly because there just isn't a ton of great competition in the east.

We have Giannis and there are no juggernauts.

If the Pacers and Celtics were healthy and still intact from last season, I would say the Bucks would be a long shot to win the east. Last year's version of those two teams would scare the hell out of me going into this season.

But with the Pacers and Celtics no longer being factors in the east. The only teams in the east who you can argue are better on paper than the Bucks are the Cavs & Knicks.

The Cavs are a good regular season team but they are playoff frauds.

The Knicks are good, but I would never bet on a team lead by Karl Anthony-Towns and coached by Mike Brown (without LeBron) to reach the NBA Finals. Mike Brown coached prime Lebron for 5 seasons and could only get 1 NBA Finals where the Cavs got swept.

The bonus for the Bucks is the team who is probably our greatest threat in the east on paper, is coached by the one of the few guys who Doc Rivers could probably out-coach. Mike Brown is no Rick Carlise.

As for the Buck's roster. This roster is designed to win with Giannis.

Let the Giannis be the focal point on every possession when he is in the game. Let Giannis dominate and surround him with quality players who will play off of Giannis and make the defense pay for double and trpple teams. That's how you win with Giannis and the Bucks have done that.

Dame was a horrible fit next to Giannis, the last thing you want to do is pair Giannis with a volume shooter who is more concerned about Dame time than he is about winning the game. And a guy who gives you zero effort on the defensive end. Dame was the classic Rather look good and lose than look bad and win guy. Guys like that generally don't give you much effort on defense because it's harder to look good on offense when you're wasting your energy on defense. You're not going to win anything with guys like that.

Dame was going to get his shots, Giannis dominating and the Bucks winning be damned.

[mediocrityrules]

With the weaker east this season I have to think that we win more games than last season. I'd also like to think that we can at least make the second round, hopefully get to the conference finals. If we can offload Kuzma for anything half decent then we can potentially get to the Finals.

[rilamann]

Now I will play devil's advocate and give my concerns.

Still not a fan of Doc Rivers. I am really high on this Bucks team but the fact that Doc Rivers is still our coach tempers some of my enthusiasm. The way this current Bucks roster is designed though, it would almost be hard to screw it up. Let Giannis dominate and let our highest quality players like Miles Turner and AJ Green play off of him. Not exactly brain surgery. As long as Doc doesn't get in his own way, like playing Kuzma 30 minutes a night for example, we should be ok with Doc. I think. I hope.

I haven't been this high on a Bucks team going into a season since 2021'22. But this might be the most Giannis dependent Bucks team we have had in a long time. We have some high quality pieces around Giannis and as a unit I think they can reach the NBA Finals. But those pieces need Giannis to function at a high level. For example Miles Turner is a very good high quality player, but playing next to Giannis he might be a borderline all star. Guys like GTJ and AJ Green are good players, but their value is a lot higher playing next to Giannis.

We don't have a prime Khris Middleton type of player who can carry the load for stretches when Giannis is out of the game or misses some games.

You can always say we are probably toast if Giannis doesn't suit up, but that's probably more the case with this current team than with some of our recent teams.

[soxperry]

51 wins, most of the losses coming on Giannis rest days.

Kpj puts up 25/7/8 per 36

Kuzma gets traded

[HKPackFan]

52 wins
Giannis mvp
Giannis finals mvp
Bucks championship

[AussieBuck]

We're winning it all if healthy and Doc doesn't go full Doc.

Might take a midseason trade but it doesn't need to be all the chips, a post prime Wes Matthews could be enough.

[midranger]

My prediction? Pain. (For the casinos that gave me 80:1 on Doc COTY futures)

[Ron Swanson]

Simmons, Lowe and House did their EC pod today. The Bucks over/under was 42.5 I think. All three of them took a ‘heavy over’

Lowe was the least convinced. Simmons said we’ll be good this. 4 or 5 seed. They all agreed the Vegas number was way too low. They assumed Vegas money is factoring in the chance of a midseason Giannis trade.

Again, no idea where the "no one believes in us" stuff was coming from. This has pretty much been the norm since the shock wore off from Dame waive/stretch and Turner signing. All the non-ESPN talking heads are actually pretty bullish on this team's chances for a Top-4 seed, but people just couldn't look past the meaningless Vegas odds.