BruttoNostra wrote:OkcSinceSGA wrote:BruttoNostra wrote:Post your bold(ish) predictions and let's compare in April?
I guess at least 3 of my predictions are like +800 from betting perspective, so make it as bold as possible too
Good thing I have lots of history of being correct in 20 years on this board I can bump any time. The only thing you MAY get correct is Orlando.
Not sure why it's relevant. It's not a race, we're not in a measuring competition. We're talking about this season. I posted something bold, not "Cavs/Knicks will win the West". If you're laughing at my bold(ish) predictions for this season - let's see what you get?
OkcSinceSGA wrote:The Spurs are a year away from top 3 IMO.
Legit, but I'm a believer in:
A) Wemby
B) How different are NBA results when your team actually tries to win
OkcSinceSGA wrote:Clippers were 50 wins, not in the playoffs in despite Kawhi missing 65+ games.. and with a far less talent. But somehow despite adding 13 wins of value and having Kawhi 100% healthy going into the season they will DROP off a lot? Yea no.
I'm a stats guy more than most of the forum, but "adding 13 wins of value"? Are those "13 wins" with us in the room right now?
Is it Lopez who will play half of his minutes from the last season? Collins who was available for peanuts and no contender took a chance on him? The corpse of CP3? What about the fact than all existing players and newcomers are 1 year older now? How many of them you think will become faster/better vs how many of them will decline?
OkcSinceSGA wrote:Lastly the Bulls are in the same boat as the Hornets. Dangerous any given night and will win a few more than expected but 6 seed is a reach.
You need to be a hater to compare a mid/competitive team (by Eastern Conference standards, ofc) like Bulls to a tanking disorganized group of players like Hornets. Hornets are competing with Wizards and Nets for lottery balls. Bulls were very mid last season, but have a potential for some internal growth.
Edit: I'm still laughing at Kawhi being 100% healthy. Ofc I wish him to play 82 games, but come on, 50 games would be a gift and 60 games would be a miracle.
13 estimated wins added in WAR and win shares. Sure, you can account for a decline in older players, but did you also account for the circumstances themselves that could change? For example, Harden is older right? But I correctly called it preseason that he would have a much better season than the year before. Despite being 36, he did. Why? Because I knew with a full summer training with the team and his growing chemistry with Zu in the PNR, and Kawhi missing the first couple of months, there was no way he wasn't going to bounce back some.
This is the depth I analyze basketball with. Not simple stats. Same thing with Zubac whom I have said for YEARS wasn't getting enough touches or minutes only for him to be a top 4 center last year, All NBA worthy candidate and 2nd team All defense.
Now that you understand why I found the prediction laughable in my first reply I'll go over each player.
Brook Lopez- I don't care about his age. When the Clippers backup 5 was Eubanks who is literally unplayable, and you replace him with Brook Lopez who has been a good starting center for like 15 seasons and even now is a very dangerous player... it's obvious why you pick up a few wins. Last year the Clippers were stuck with a lot of small ball lineups like Batum at center due to now backup big. So Lopez doesn't even need to be great, he just needs to be a lot better than the 400th best player in the NBA, and he is.
Chris Paul- On paper, it's easy to say he's 40 and declined (he's already declined a lot the last 4-5 seasons). But there is a lot of important context that will get missed in the surface level analysis. If you watched the Clippers last year enough you would have seen a massive flaw in this team. Lack of ball handlers. Whenever Harden sat, there was literally ZERO players on the team capable of running the offense or playmaking comfortably. It was a bunch of wings basically and scoring guards trying to pick up the slack. Which leads to bonehead turnovers, slow offense, inability to get the ball inside etc.
Dunn was probably the closest thing to a "reliable" ball handler that wasn't super turnover prone, but he lacks the court vision to actually run an offense. Chris Paul was not an ideal fit in his last two stops. In GS it was just an awkward fit, and in SA it was fine, but that team is young and fast. CP3 slows offenses down. He just didn't fit what they want to do. In this Clippers team he has one simple mission. Run the offense for the second unit. He's already throwing halfcourt lobs, getting a ton of open 3's, and hustling on defense in the preseason where he's been magnificent. He's also HOME and in possibly his final season in this reunion. I don't expect a lot but a very efficient 7/7 type season where he is fantastic getting Lopez/Collins/Batum the ball on corner 3s and cuts will pay off HUGE.
John Collins- He was a 19/9 guy on 50/40 shooting splits last year and several Utah fans, and forum threads have talked about how the team was nearly .500 level when he was on the court, and dead last in the league when he wasn't. This idea that he is some empty stats non factor is silly because the data shows he was a VERY positive impact player in multiple seasons, including last year. If people "don't want him" that doesn't change what the data and eye test say, that's more of a perception.
But again, it's not how good Collins is but how bad the PF depth was. Kawhi was starting at PF the last couple of years, which was part of why the Clippers got killed on the offensive glass and bullied by guys like Aaron Gordon in the playoffs. Adding a legit 6'9 230+ lbs post player who can hit 3's is HUGE. The biggest value is to shift Kawhi back down to 3.
Bradley Beal- He will never be 30 ppg Beal. But the Clippers will take last year's ultra efficient 18 ppg Beal with enhanced playmaking over Norm and it minimizes the loss by replacing Norm with a similar capability guy on offense. Norm was great as a scorer getting downhill, but he wasn't good at seeing open shooters, playmaking or avoiding turnovers. I think Beal's superior playmaking will offset a small 3-5 ppg drop in scoring.
To summarize I DO expect the older players to drop off maybe 10-15%... but I think the roster additions and continued growth of Zubac are worth at least another 4-6 wins which would put them at 54-56 wins. Yes, injuries will happen... but getting a fully healthy start has been key for building chemistry and putting the plays in. It's the first season since 2021 that Kawhi will come in looking dominant and healthy.
“This kid reminds me of a 6-6 Chris Paul. He wants to win everything.”
Olin Simplis- SGA’s trainer.
