penbeast0 wrote:First: Tre didn't just kill it in offseason workouts, he was a genuine college standout as a freshman. Probably more so than Harper or Bailey though they were higher rated in high school. They are the ones that showed more in measurements, and skill workouts and were drafted higher because of it.
Second: No signs that Harper is a generation point guard prospect that I've seen. Good prospect, good size, good downhill ability, we will see whether he develops the court vision or 3 point ability of a top level point guard but he hasn't proven those things yet. I think he's getting a bit overhyped.
He was also a pretty meh to crap defender in college which is one of two key reasons teams didn't have him in the same tiers as the Flagg, and Harper/VJ/ Bailey tiers), and that would be defense (yes I know he was asked to carry the offensive load, and so took time off under heavy usage on d, and I know he has the measurements to at least be average in time, but there's a fundamental difference between an argument for an elite defender, a good defender, and elite measurables for defense, and "maybe he becomes solid due to his measurables and less heavy usage" take on a players defense and defensive potential) and athleticism.
Tre's got his ticket to success, it's highly unlikely he busts, but the ceiling was always lower than the big 4 because of the athletic and defensive short comings. No doubt the higher floor than Bailey, but definitely not the higher ceiling than any of those 4.
I think you're the first person I've come across that views Harper as good, rather than elite. I'm not saying Harper's a locked in 1.01 for any draft, but he'd be the 1.01 in most solid to good drafts, and he is generally tiered out similarly to guys like Ant, Ja, and the like from their classes, and I think he has a greater upside than Ja if not Ant.
Theathletic did a nice piece on Tre Johnson repeatedly talking to scouts about him, they generally really like him, see high likely outcomes, but like me, they seem skeptical of stardom, view him as the 3rd guy on a legit team, and this draft had 4 guys who had top 2 guy potential (and when I say that, I mean "reasonably likely", obviously there are guys peppered throughout the draft with high ceilings, but far less likely projected outcome that would reach such heights, whereas the big 4 in this class were generally seen as 40%+ and better to spit ball it, whereas as a say, Maluach, could have a through the roof outcome, but it's far less likely).
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6720995/2025/10/16/tre-johnson-what-scouts-are-saying/Beyond frustrating as a wizards fan/victim to just perenially be screwed in this way. It's possible I'm wrong on his ceiling, I hope so, but I think the rush up the charts you saw with his prospect status from consensus 5th-7th (depending upon how high people had Kon ranked) to as high as 3rd on some boards, like Vecennie, is going to most likely disappear, and he'll settle in amongst the second or third tier of this class beyond the studs (Flagg+er's). Pray I'm wrong, but that is definitely the most likely outcome.