Is it too early to worry about The Grizzlies?

[walk with me]

They should have traded Ja and JJJjr this summer. Now the players will have the leverage next summer. They’ll be awful and they’ll be one of the bigger stories of the season for how terrible they’ll be.

[PistolPeteJR]

Losing Bane is a blow to their offense, but the Bane minutes going to defensive guys (KCP, Vincent Williams, Jaylen Wells, Cedric Coward) eliminates Memphis' biggest defensive weakness: that tiny backcourt. I love Bane, but I never loved the Morant/Bane pairing, defensively. Bane works hard on defense but those tiny arms mean he's bringing the help defense of a much shorter guard.

This was the 6th ranked offense last year. There's no statistical evidence that Bane was integral to that offense in the regular season (118.1 Ortg on, 118.6 Ortg off). There is statistical evidence that he hurt their defense (5 points worse per 100 with Bane on the floor).

I think they're more likely to be a better defense this year than they are to be a worse offense.

The Grizzlies have been a regular season machine for years now. I get that things ended ugly last year, but I think people are over-indexing on that pretty hard.

I hear what you’re saying and there’s merit to that. But I think what people are tired of with this team is exactly what you’ve mentioned in your last paragraph: they’re a regular season team that haven’t done anything in the playoffs, regardless of whether it’s primarily due to injuries or not. In the public’s eyes, they’re fake news until proven otherwise, and given they just lost the healthiest and best backcourt player they’ve had next to Ja for a number of seasons now, people are highly skeptical.

No disagreements on the playoffs. Something would need to change in Memphis before any of us believe they have a chance of winning a playoff series against any quality opponent. Even if some of their young guys pop, I don't think anyone would/should believe in the Grizz until their best players are better than Ja and Trip.

What I don't understand is how casually they're getting projected as a 40-win team. To me, they clearly look to still have the tools to be a strong 2-way, regular season performer, and win 47-52 games. They're like the pre-Kawhi Raptors right now.

That’s fair. And yes, sure, I can go with your analogy, but those Raptors teams were healthy; people don’t believe in Ja’s health. Subtract Bane from that equation this year and that’s where people’s projections probably stem from.

[donato]

They could make the 'offs, but will probably just miss the 'offs.

[Calamity_Cometh]

missing the 'offs

No. We're not doing this. This is not a thing and it will not be a thing. You can say the extra syllable. You can make the two 2 extra keystrokes.

Ploffs

[mademan]

They only really have 2 options with Ja...sell him low and commit to a rebuild or hope he gets back to being a top 10 player. I'd trade him, but its hard to trade guys low

[QMemphis]

If Grizz are healthy we are a playoff team.
If we are not than we will likely have two lottery picks with our pick and the Suns pick.

No need to trade Ja if can’t play 60 games this year than he will have a level of availability but no reason to sell low on him.

Regarding Des he would be a great 6th man and fits great in Orlando but the days of him and Ja sharing a backcourt were over. Bane was a bit overpaid for what he is actually capable of doing. Great shooter, good scorer if he is a 3rd/4th option, good playmaker, but average at best defender due to his wingspan. Wells/KCP/Coward/ getting those primary wing minutes are better for our team.

[Chuck Everett]

Scotty Pippen is out a minimum of 12 weeks to start the season with a toe injury. Iisalo is so screwed. Grizz players already dropping like flies.

[jokeboy86]

I'll always be worried about the Grizzlies because Morant still plays reckless. The fact that he hasn't suffered any Rose-type injuries is still shocking to me. And like Rose he's still not much of a shooter so I fear he probably will keep playing the way he plays which unfortunately may catch up to him

[LarsV8]

2021-2022 - top 5 in both off and defense, 56 wins. (Ja, JJJ, Bane, Adams, Brooks, Clarke, Anderson, Jones, Aldama) - Pretty top notch 8 man rotation, Aldama up and coming. 29th in spend.

2022-2023 - top 15 in off, 2nd defense, 51 wins, lot of injuries. 27th in spend.

2023-2024 - 27 wins, Ja misses the season, trade away Brooks and Adams. 17th in spend.

2024-2025 - 48 wins, 6th offensively, 10th defensively, 24th in spend.

2025-2026 - Traded away Bane...TBD, 28th in spend.

I don't follow them closely, and am just looking at the numbers, but seems like an unwillingness to spend has taken a pretty damn good team and slowly stripped into meh. Should have kept Brooks, Adams and Bane. While I don't think they would be a contender, I think they would be a mid 50ish win team rather than a 45-48 win team, which is a different tier.

Ceiling will always be limited, as I don't think Ja is a #1 on a contender.

[Hitman88]

Their future is good as they own the Suns pick next year and Jalen Green is injured.