YogurtProducer wrote:MoneyBall wrote:YogurtProducer wrote:Good to know you are throwing out stats that you actually have no clue where they derive from. Here is the definition, right from the source:
So... it is 100% box score based. Not advanced other than someone applied a formula to a basic box score. it is for all intensive purposes a fantasy ranking.
Cool - he has raw box score stats!
*sigh*
1. Box score based doesn't mean "non-advanced".
The word "advanced" refers to how the stat is analyzed and modeled, not where the data comes from. A metric doesn’t need tracking or play-by-play data to be advanced. BPM, PER, Win Shares, VORP, LEBRON, and EPM all take basic box-score numbers and use formulas to estimate a player’s real impact. That’s why Basketball Reference lists BPM right in the Advanced Stats section alongside those others. Thus, BPM is part of a recognized family of advanced impact metrics.
Maybe you should give them a shout and explain to them why they've been wrong this whole time.
2. BPM isn’t a raw stat, it’s a modeled estimate. Raw stats are things like points, rebounds, assists, and standard plus/minus; single numbers taken straight from the box score with no adjustments or context. BPM, on the other hand, uses those raw stats as
inputs in a formula that was built by comparing how players’ box-score profiles relate to team success. The end result is an estimated impact rating, not a count of anything that actually appears in the box score.
3. BPM is not a glorified fantasy ranking. Fantasy rankings reward raw box score volume. BPM does the opposite: it estimates on-court impact relative to league average, accounting for pace, team performance, and positional adjustments.
It measures real basketball impact, not fantasy output. Maybe consult Google before declaring others clueless... it's faster than arguing.
Either way, anything that uses box scores is not an "advanced" stat. It is a glorified PER (which is also apparently "advanced").
Lol, the metrics you single out as the only "true advanced stats" like EPM, LEBRON, Darko, RAPTOR etc.
all rely on box score data for their inputs with varying degrees (except for RAPM). Without box score data they couldn't exist.
Like man, you keep bringing up BPM (which is BOX SCORE plus/minus). Again, these are as useful as fantasy sports rankings which do the same thing (take box scores and spits out a figure). That is not "advanced", no matter what basketball-reference says. Basketball-reference is notoriously just weird with their stats, as their on-off figures have been wrong for as long as I can remember.
Again, an advanced stat in basketball analytics is not defined by what category of data it uses, but rather what it attempts to measure and how complex it's calculation is compared to traditional box score stats.
BPM uses regression models to estimate player impact on team performance. It's also adjusted for team context and position. By definition, BPM
is an advanced metric. Even the stat's creator, Daniel Myers, explicitly describes it as such.
This view I'm defending isn't merely my opinion, it’s convention. Analysts, journalists, and even NBA front offices use BPM alongside other advanced metrics (e.g. EPM, LEBRON, WS, Darko) in the same conversations about player value and impact. Calling BPM a raw stat is ignorant on so many levels.
Now, you may not like BPM, or rely on it for all sorts of reasons (which is really what that rando from reddit you quoted was getting at), but your personal opinion of it does nothing to declassify it as an advanced basketball metric.
Your entire argument is he had positive advanced stats on the offensive side of the floor. He doesn't. End of story.
Saying "end of story" after a false statement doesn't magically make it true. You said Scottie was a net negative on offense
his entire career. THAT is false.
Even if I only use your preferred advanced metrics and disqualify the ones you've arbitrarily dismissed, you're
still wrong. Here are Scottie's offensive metrics:
LEBRON Yr1 -0.8
Yr2 +0.3
Yr3 +0.9
Yr4 +0.1
DarkoYr1 0.0
Yr2 +0.1
Yr3 +0.8
Yr4 +0.1
RAPTORYr1 +0.1
*metric no longer calculated after 2022. However, it's notable that Scottie's year one metric in RAPTOR is even better than the other two advanced metrics.
EPM*I don't have a subscription so I can't look at past seasons, but I remember him being in the positive every time I looked him up.