Brewers News, Transactions, Trade Ideas

coolhandluke121 · Post #341 » by **coolhandluke121** » Sun Oct 19, 2025 3:53 pm

There's a lot of talk about how cheap Mark A is, so what do we want him to spend on? I'm not just asking rhetorically because some of you don't want to spend money on Jansen, but basically every other role has a young player under team control with at least one really good year under his belt (counting 2024 for Ortiz), meaning it's hard to justify spending on someone who might not even be an upgrade.

I'm still a Vaughn skeptic, so Naylor would have some interest for me, but Vaughn and Bauers probably deserve a chance to be the platoon 1B team again next year.

Durbin had a good series against LAD, but let's not succumb to recency bias. He basically had nearly the exact same WAR as 2024 Ortiz, playing the exact same position with almost the exact same number of PA's at almost the exact same age. He could regress, but unlike Ortiz, he can't excel at the premium position of SS, where you can often live with a weak bat. A serious contender typically would have someone like him as the backup 2B/3B. Suarez might be an option at 3B, but he's not exactly young and would be a huge gamble.

Collins and Perkins played solid roles, but one good OF would be an option. Frelick and Chourio are versatile, so it could be any of the 3 OF positions. I would hate to block Mitchell if he's healthy though. But unless you splurge for Bellinger, Tucker, or Schwarber (DH with Yelich in LF), you may as well just play Collins and Perkins.

Gallen, Cease, Bieber, Valdez, or Suarez would be an exciting SP addition. Scherzer or Verlander might be an interesting veteran addition for leadership.

BIchette would be the obvious upgrade at SS, but they have a lot of prospects at SS. Story is aging and it's anyone's guess if he'll be good again next year.

BUCKnation · Post #342 » by **BUCKnation** » Sun Oct 19, 2025 3:56 pm

Mark A puts in enough to keep a few guys through long term extensions on reasonable deals but not enough to keep the top-top tier guys like Burnes or Prince back in the day or even take a risk and keep someone like Adames.

Thunder Muscle · Post #343 » by **Thunder Muscle** » Mon Oct 20, 2025 4:00 pm

And it also stinks when they do spend and it doesn’t work out like with Hoskins. Outside of that stretch in April into May, never really clicked for him here. I’m guessing there is zero chance he is back on a cheaper deal. Assume he will move on. Crew likely will give Vaughn the opportunity next season. I also am not 100% sold Vaughn replicates this season. But the investment is minimal on him.

Agree on free agents. I don’t foresee them doing much on the position side of things. Adding someone like Gallen would be cool. But guessing he commands alot yet even coming off a down season.

I kinda wonder what Freddy’s contract will look like. If we offered 5Y 120M think he consider it? Guessing he may want to get in that 25M+ year range. Snell got 28M/year so feel that be top end but then guys like Flaherty, Gray have 25M/year.

MVP2110 · Post #344 » by **MVP2110** » Mon Oct 20, 2025 4:09 pm

The MKE tailgate guys brought up a good point that spending could be down this offseason across the board as owners dont want to lock themselves into huge deals and will likely want to save money before possibly missing the entire 2027 season

Thunder Muscle · Post #345 » by **Thunder Muscle** » Mon Oct 20, 2025 4:23 pm

MVP2110 wrote:The MKE tailgate guys brought up a good point that spending could be down this offseason across the board as owners dont want to lock themselves into huge deals and will likely want to save money before possibly missing the entire 2027 season

Good point. Heard that too on the pod.

Sportrac with arbitration is projecting 155M for 2026. I’m think we can confidently remove Hoskins, Quintana, Jansen which subtracts about 38-39M after factoring in buyouts. If they move on from Woodruff that is another 10M after buyout. If they are shooting for a 120M payroll that would leave about 10-20M pending Woodruff decision.

Obviously things can vary based on arbitration decisions, etc. This is factoring like 1.75M for Bauers, 1.5M for Mears, 2M for Mitchell, etc which can free up more depending how things shake out.

I thought we non-tendered Bauers last year, doesn’t that end arbitration years going forward? Sportrac has it as last Arb year for him.

coolhandluke121 · Post #346 » by **coolhandluke121** » Mon Oct 20, 2025 4:49 pm

I just don't see the logic of Woodruff not being back at an $10m extra after the buyout. He was probably worth about 2.5 WAR in less than half of a normal workload and would have projected to nearly 6 WAR over a full season, and the lat injury is unrelated to the shoulder injury. You have to pay the buyout either way, so it's just a 1/$10m contract for what was a solid #2 starter on a playoff team last season. That's ridiculously good value, unless for some reason you think the lat injury is going to be an ongoing issue... but why would it be? They never even ruled him out of the World Series if they made it that far.

Maybe Woodruff helps them out and negotiates, but I don't think he should. He missed nearly all of his paydays, and earned less than $30m over his first 8 seasons. He's under no obligation to negotiate. Hell, he'll probably get more if the Brewers buy him out. I can't imagine there won't be at least one team will to offer more than $10m to take a flyer on him. Spotrac has his open market value at $17m for next season, strictly based on his performance. Take a little off for injury risk, but it's still easily worth $10m and it's just one more season. I'll be pissed as hell if the Brewers don't pick that up.

Post #347 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Oct 20, 2025 5:20 pm

If Woody is healthy he won't take the mutual option. If he's not healthy the Brewers wouldn't pick up their part of the mutual option. Either way he won't be back on an option.

Thunder Muscle · Post #348 » by **Thunder Muscle** » Mon Oct 20, 2025 5:20 pm

If Woody decides to opt out, does he still get a 10M buyout? If so, I actually think he may opt out if healthy as probably can come out ahead if gets like 2Y 30M or 3Y 45M deal somewhere plus the 10M buy out.

Post #349 » by **MickeyDavis** » Mon Oct 20, 2025 6:19 pm

Thunder Muscle wrote:If Woody decides to opt out, does he still get a 10M buyout? If so, I actually think he may opt out if healthy as probably can come out ahead if gets like 2Y 30M or 3Y 45M deal somewhere plus the 10M buy out.

Yes $10 million buyout if he opts out.

coolhandluke121 · Post #350 » by **coolhandluke121** » Mon Oct 20, 2025 8:58 pm

MickeyDavis wrote:
Thunder Muscle wrote:If Woody decides to opt out, does he still get a 10M buyout? If so, I actually think he may opt out if healthy as probably can come out ahead if gets like 2Y 30M or 3Y 45M deal somewhere plus the 10M buy out.

Yes $10 million buyout if he opts out.

That's almost never the case, from what I've seen. Is there something special in Woodruff's contract that says this, and if so, why would the Brewers have done that? The whole point of paying him for a 1.5 years when he was going to be hurt and then having a $10m buyout was to incentivize him to reward the Brewers by staying another year if he pitched well upon his return.

He would have to beat 1/$20m on the open market to want to opt out, and by all accounts he probably wouldn't want to leave unless the difference was significant anyway. I don't think any team is beating a $20m AAV in free agency, but some big market team could offer him 3/$45m.

ETA: You're right, Woodruff gets the buyout either way. The Brewers were apparently incentivizing him to opt out, for reasons I don't fully understand. JFC that's an awful lot to pay him for what was probably never going to be more than a partial season before the buyout. He was guaranteed $17.5m for what was, at best, going to be about 80-100 innings in 2025, and there was a good chance that they would get nothing from him. I don't understand why they did that without some leverage to keep him at a good price in 2026, but I guess they did right by him more than I realized.

Thunder Muscle · Post #351 » by **Thunder Muscle** » Tue Oct 21, 2025 2:18 pm

How do we handle Yelich going forward? It is clear he can’t play the full rigors of a season. By September he is breaking down. He has been effective in the regular season though when right. Do we have to load management him even more? but that is not as easy in baseball as guys sometimes need to get in the groove. Do we not play him until June? He is not going to get traded so have to figure something out.

rayallenscalves · Post #352 » by **rayallenscalves** » Tue Oct 21, 2025 4:28 pm

As much as I love to root for this team, especially the short kings, this postseason has once again proven that you need more boppers in the lineup to succeed at that level. It's too hard to string together a bunch of singles against playoff-caliber pitching. I've love to see Chourio extend to a 30-HR season, Turang to 20, and Frelick/Durbin/Ortiz/Collins to 15 but I don't see all those things happening. And when their one legitimate HR threat (Yelich) routinely shrinks in the biggest moments, it's going to continue to make it difficult to win on the biggest stage.

I hope this next wave of prospects (Made, Pena, Quero, Wilken, Fischer, Pratt, Josh A, Dinges) show some legit MLB power.

coolhandluke121 · Post #353 » by **coolhandluke121** » Tue Oct 21, 2025 9:00 pm

I don't think it was a lack of power in the playoffs, so much as it was great pitching combined with some wilting under pressure by young players like Turang and Frelick, and the usual suspect Yelich. I think a team built like the Brewers can still score a lot in the playoffs, but they have to play up to their potential. The Phillies only scored 6 ER's in 23.2 combined innings against Ohtani, Snell, Glasnow, and Yamamoto, and lord knows they had PLENTY of power. What they did better was take pitches and limit the starters to 6.0 innings or fewer in every game, which allowed them to score 8 ER's in 14.1 innings against the LAD bullpen.

The solution for Yelich is simple, if unsatisfying. No more OF starts unless multiple guys are hurt. His defense is vastly overrated, which is common for OF's with bad instincts and weak arms who can run fast when they know which way to jump on a fly ball, creating the illusion of good defense. And NO more starts against LHPs either, which shouldn't even need to be explained. He is probably valuable enough as a DH against RHP's to be load managed for the playoffs, but maybe not if they face a team that starts a lot of LHP's.

Post #354 » by **paulpressey25** » Tue Oct 21, 2025 9:14 pm

How much do you think Suarez signs for and for how long?

trwi7 · Post #355 » by **trwi7** » Tue Oct 21, 2025 9:38 pm

coolhandluke121 wrote:I don't think it was a lack of power in the playoffs, so much as it was great pitching combined with some wilting under pressure by young players like Turang and Frelick, and the usual suspect Yelich. I think a team built like the Brewers can still score a lot in the playoffs, but they have to play up to their potential. The Phillies only scored 6 ER's in 23.2 combined innings against Ohtani, Snell, Glasnow, and Yamamoto, and lord knows they had PLENTY of power. What they did better was take pitches and limit the starters to 6.0 innings or fewer in every game, which allowed them to score 8 ER's in 14.1 innings against the LAD bullpen.

The solution for Yelich is simple, if unsatisfying. No more OF starts unless multiple guys are hurt. His defense is vastly overrated, which is common for OF's with bad instincts and weak arms who can run fast when they know which way to jump on a fly ball, creating the illusion of good defense. And NO more starts against LHPs either, which shouldn't even need to be explained. He is probably valuable enough as a DH against RHP's to be load managed for the playoffs, but maybe not if they face a team that starts a lot of LHP's.

Homers win. Our string together hits and infield singles and stolen bases and **** work against weaker teams without good pitching/defense. Playoff teams usually have both so as hard as it is to string 3 or 4 hits together in general, it's even harder in the playoffs.

coolhandluke121 · Post #356 » by **coolhandluke121** » Wed Oct 22, 2025 1:06 am

trwi7 wrote:
Homers win. Our string together hits and infield singles and stolen bases and **** work against weaker teams without good pitching/defense. Playoff teams usually have both so as hard as it is to string 3 or 4 hits together in general, it's even harder in the playoffs.

I consider this a self-fulfilling prophecy. There aren't many teams that have good offenses without power, so it could be a correlation vs. causation fallacy when people say that you can't win in the playoffs without power. The Brewers had a very good offense without power, but they faced an all-time great playoff rotation (and did themselves no favors by not being patient at the plate). The Royals also come to mind as a team that defied the cookie-cutter mold.

That said, of course I want to add a power bat, but there aren't many guys in the lineup I want to replace. Making Durbin a backup 2B/3B and getting someone like Suarez might be an option, but people seem to like him and will be down on that idea. They could move Chourio to CF and get a slugging LF, but Collins just had an .802 OPS against RHPs and is a really good defender, so that's also questionable. I still think that Mitchell has a lot of slugging potential too.

I think we're overdue for a Cain/Yelich type of offseason, and I'm actually pretty optimistic that we'll see some splurging, in spite of everyone's complaints about the payroll. Left side of the infield and a starting pitcher are where I see them going all-in.

coolhandluke121 · Post #357 » by **coolhandluke121** » Wed Oct 22, 2025 2:02 am

paulpressey25 wrote:How much do you think Suarez signs for and for how long?

Whatever the equivalent of Aramis Ramirez's last contract was seems fair. I recall that being a 4-year deal that was always going to age poorly, but was a very good value for the first few years to make up the difference. There are lots of similarities between the two players, not the least of which is just the fact that the Brewers unexpectedly cut a nice free agent check for a player they really needed.

Maybe 4/$80m for Suarez, given all the inflation since 2012? I'm not sure that teams will be lining up to pay him more just because of a couple red-hot months last summer.

Thunder Muscle · Post #358 » by **Thunder Muscle** » Wed Oct 22, 2025 2:27 am

What is the best prospect package that you would put together to offer Detroit for a 1 season rental of Skubal? Heard they are far apart from on extension so may be faced with cashing out.

Hypothetically. I know this would never happen.

Iheartfootball · Post #359 » by **Iheartfootball** » Wed Oct 22, 2025 4:24 am

Thunder Muscle wrote:How do we handle Yelich going forward? It is clear he can’t play the full rigors of a season. By September he is breaking down. He has been effective in the regular season though when right. Do we have to load management him even more? but that is not as easy in baseball as guys sometimes need to get in the groove. Do we not play him until June? He is not going to get traded so have to figure something out.

Yes, I think you’re on the right track. You rest him more. Get him some stem cells for his back. He’s most likely retiring a Brewer. Need his buy in. He’s the culture.

I think they need a few veteran guys who are proven playoff winners. At least one more. They played so tight and scared against the Dodgers. They seemed to abruptly run out of gas. Part of that is youths unpredictable confidence and lack of veteran winners.

These young guys will settle in. This was great experience for the team and franchise. They keep getting back. They just haven’t punched through…yet. I’m optimistic that one of these opportunities will be the one. They are such a well run org.

But that’s only one lens and I’m bias as hell. What do I know?

coolhandluke121 · Post #360 » by **coolhandluke121** » Wed Oct 22, 2025 11:12 am

Iheartfootball wrote:
But that’s only one lens and I’m bias as hell. What do I know?

It's a lens that paints a pretty clear picture. Not at all uncommon for young teams to tighten up in the playoffs. Future still looks bright. And most importantly, there's never been a better time to spend some money for upgrades.

In the past, they've paid guys like Cain, Grandal, Moustakas, Aramis Ramirez, Wolf, Suppan, Garza, and Lohse. They also extended Yelich. Not all of them worked out, but the point is that they are willing to spend when it makes sense, and nothing would make more sense than upgrading a 97-win team with such a low payroll.